uva3021 Jan 8 BCS Championship Game

uva3021 · #1 01-08-2007, 02:40 AM

20-12 so far in bowls, making a new thread for this one.

The biggest game of the year doesn't necessarily mean my biggest bet of the year. I usually don't post the size or how much money I'm putting on a particular game, I just usually post my picks. This will be a medium sized bet for me (FYI this was by biggest wager of the year)

In the process of analyzing the game, because of the amount of time you have leading up to the game, and the amount of new information about it every day, overanalyzing can be a problem. My strategy heading into this one was really no different than what I have been doing all year. I look at some key points for each team, starting with Florida getting 7.5 points.

To simplify the complex, here are the main reasons behind the following pick:

- Florida is the best team in the best conference in the nation (SEC)
- Florida has an experienced talented QB - I would label the QB situation for both teams as Even to Slight edge to OSU
- The biggest playmaker on the field is Percy Harvin of Florida
- Urban Meyer is 12-0 in bowl games, rivalry games, and conference championships
- Urban Meyer is 11-2-2 ATS last 15 games as an underdog

Bottom line, getting 7.5 pts with a the best team in the SEC is too good to pass up IMO.

FLORIDA +7.5 (-115) THE GREEK

Only put a fraction of what I had planned on betting on this game so far. I was hoping to maybe pick up even better value on this game, though its doubtful. But I eventually will upgrade to a medium sized bet, and maybe throw a little on the ML

There are a couple of line tips and movements that I have ignored in this game, that I typically would not ignore. IMO, b/c of the volume of bets and amount of money, the line tips and movements tend to fluctuate in extremes throughout the week to either side, and right now I see a couple of things to tell me OSU is going to win the game by 10+, though in the beginning of the week, there were some things that told me Florida may win SU.

ghoopin · #2 01-08-2007, 06:10 AM

"- The biggest playmaker on the field is Percy Harvin of Florida"

Ever heard of a guy named Troy Smith??? He touches the ball every play and keeps proving to everyone that he really is "that good". LOL

Good luck Wahoo.

NY Mane · #3 01-08-2007, 09:02 AM

Tressel has plays hidden away that will be pulled out tonight. He knew they were going to this game all year, whereas FLA didn't know. Old tapes will help OSU.