10 potential Giant killers

[Romanowski]

Posted by Jordan Brenner and Peter Keating

It's never too early to get to know the teams you'll want to ride to victory in your office pool next week. So allow us to present the top 10 potential Giant Killers, based on our model's ratings. Some of these teams, like Cornell, already have qualified for the NCAA tourney. Others, like San Diego State, are navigating a crowded bubble field. And in the case of Marshall, it might take C-USA's auto bid to reach the tourney.

The number listed next to each team represents its chance of being upset by a Giant Killer, with a score ranging from 1 (unlikely) to 100 (extremely likely).


It's worth noting that these teams' chances of pulling off an upset will depend greatly on the relative vulnerability of their opponents, which is why we'll compute a percentage chance of an upset in every game once the bracket is released. But in the meantime, start studying up on these would-be assassins.
Murray State (95.0): Usually, teams are able to generate extra possessions from a dominant inside or outside game, not both. But the OVC champs are monsters on the offensive glass (offensive rebounds on 39.5 percent of possessions, 12th in the NCAA) and masters of stealing the ball (thefts on 13.7 percent of opponent possessions, seventh in the country, leading to turnovers on 24.6 percent of opponent possessions, 11th in the nation). Moreover, once the Racers get the ball, they're efficient. Murray State has an effective field goal percentage of 55.4 percent (eighth-best nationally), while holding opponents to just 43.9 percent (16th). As the buzz builds, all we can say is, it's like our GK model issued blueprints and the Racers built a team.
Cornell (89.3): The Ivy League champion is the best 3-point shooting team in the country, with five players who not only are shooting better than 39 percent from behind the arc, but who have 80 or more 3-point attempts. Big Red's offensive efficiency ranks 26th in the NCAA, although they score less than 12 points a game on free throws. The result is the kind of streakiness that can make a Killer extremely dangerous at this time of year.
UNLV (83.4): The Rebels turn it over on only 17 percent of possessions, which is 20th in the nation, and are particularly good at preventing live-ball turnovers (steals allowed on just 6.7 percent of possessions, second in the country). They're also efficient on offense, shooting 53.9 percent on 2-pointers (10th nationally). Meanwhile, UNLV doesn't rely on free throws to score (17.8 percent of all points, ranking 312th), while its opponents are unusually FT-heavy (26.0 percent of all points, ranking 18th). That combo wears very well in March.
Marshall (82.3): The Thundering Herd probably have to win the C-USA tourney to reach the Big Dance but will make some noise if they're invited. Led by Hassan Whiteside, Marshall blocks shots on an astounding, and NCAA-leading, 19.1 percent of opponent possessions. That helps the team limit opponents to just 44.5 percent field goal shooting.
Saint Mary's (80.9): Omar Samhan -- a 6-foot-11, 265-pound GK favorite -- gives them a strong inside presence, but the Gaels' true brilliance comes from long distance. Saint Mary's shoots an impressive 41.1 percent from deep (fourth in the NCAA) and simply shuts down opponents on the perimeter, allowing just 28.3 percent 3-point shooting, also fourth-best, and just 17.1 percent of opponent points on 3s, ranking 347th (which is a good thing).
Utah State (80.4): The Aggies' plodding tempo (61.8 possessions per game, 333rd in the country) disguises a highly efficient offense (115.5 points per 100 possessions, 14th) keyed by outstanding 3-point shooting (42.2 percent, second in the nation). The Aggies are prophylactic: On offense, they protect the ball (16.2 percent turnover percentage, ranking ninth), and on defense, they let opponents grab offensive rebounds on just 27.3 percent of possessions (13th).
UTEP (74.8): The Miners' swarming, mostly man defense comes up with steals on 12.4 percent of possessions (25th in the NCAA) and limits opponents to just 43.9 percent field goal shooting (15th) and 88.1 points per 100 possessions (13th). The Miners outscored opponents by nearly a dozen points per game but were outscored at the free throw line -- a great sign for upset potential, despite the fact that it seems counterintuitive.
San Diego State (66.8): The Aztecs probably have to beat Colorado State and then New Mexico in the Mountain West tournament to get off the bubble. If that happens, they'll threaten a Giant with their offensive rebounding (O-boards on 40.5 percent of possessions, eighth in the nation) and their blocks (13.5 percent of possessions, ranking 18th).
Old Dominion (66.4): The Monarchs grab offensive rebounds on a staggering 42.4 percent of possessions, No. 1 in the country. The top 10 also includes West Virginia, Kentucky, Kansas State, Duke and Michigan State. That's all you really need to know.
Rhode Island (61.2): The Rams are going to need some A-10 help to make the big tournament, but if they get their ticket punched, they'll unleash a highly efficient offense (112.8 points per 100 possessions, 30th in the country). URI hardly ever gives the ball away; they are blocked on just 5.9 percent of possessions (sixth in the nation), give up steals on only 7.2 percent (fifth) and have an overall turnover percentage of just 16.2 (11th). Throw in offensive rebounds on a healthy 36 percent of possessions, and it hardly matters that opponents shoot well against them since the Rams do such a good job of denying them extra chances

[The Nac]

UTEP & Marshall for sure.