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Old 12-29-2018, 04:09 AM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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AK's nearly blind bets

FULL DISCLOSURE: I do not know very much about NCAAM but I can follow trends.

I made a few bets in Feb. by just taking the dogs and the points. The first day was 6-1. After a nice day watching the bowls today, I looked at BB and saw something I liked. I put it in 151's thread as a question but I should have my own thread if I'm to post.

151; Did you consider LSU vs La Monroe +18 ?

I played it but I just make these nearly blind bets with logic like; LSU is a big-time SEC team while La Monroe, 1st in Sun Belt, is an in-state local so why pound them? I took the points but I would never call that a well-capped bet.
For today I'm taking;
Event 1: San Jose State at Saint Marys Ca
Play Time: 2018-12-29 20:00
Selection: San Jose State to win
Odds: Point Spread (+23.0) -110

Saint Mary's Gaels, 1st in MW, has no fear of San Jose State, 3-8, 1st in WCC ever making the playoffs so there is no need for style points. Also, San Francisco Dons 12-1, 0-0 Conf are coming up on 1/3/2019. Why get worn out? In the NFL I would call this a "look ahead game."
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Old 12-29-2018, 08:42 AM
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Old 12-29-2018, 08:55 AM
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Old 12-29-2018, 07:01 PM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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Hard to follow as it is starting.

1. Under
159.0 -110
Wisc Green Bay at Wisc Milwaukee

Milwaukee is terrible
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Old 12-31-2018, 06:26 AM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AuburnKid View Post
FULL DISCLOSURE: I do not know very much about NCAAM but I can follow trends.
151; Did you consider LSU vs La Monroe +18 winner?
For today I'm taking;
Event 1: San Jose State at Saint Marys Ca
Play Time: 2018-12-29 20:00
Selection: San Jose State to win
Odds: Point Spread (+23.0) -110
Up to date: 1-2 ATS
La Monroe +18 winner
San Jose State at Saint Marys +23 loser
UWM Under 159.0

Wisc Green Bay at Wisc Milwaukee Under 159.0 loser
My logic was one-sided. Yes, UWM is bad, but that does not tell me anything about GB which was worse. Easy over; a loser.


I have Gonzaga +700 to win it all. Waiting.

Tonight I'm taking the covering machine. Gonzaga 12-2, 10-4-0 ATS vs CSU Bakersfield 8-4, 2-3 Away. Waiting on lines.
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Last edited by AuburnKid; 12-31-2018 at 06:28 AM. Reason: removed dead code, extra blank rows
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Old 12-31-2018, 07:16 AM
Dale City Dale City is offline
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Good luck AK. Happy New Year Bro
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Old 12-31-2018, 12:30 PM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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Originally Posted by Dale City View Post
Good luck AK. Happy New Year Bro
Thank you. Happy back at you!

1. Gonzaga -25.5 -110
OCs Bakersfield at Gonzaga

I am funding these bets by following the better pickers but none up yet. Hey, it is NEW YEARS eve.
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Old 01-01-2019, 06:10 PM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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My cappin' logic for post #1 was;
Saint Mary's Gaels, 1st in MW, has no fear of San Jose State, 3-8, 1st in WCC ever making the playoffs so there is no need for style points. Also, San Francisco Dons 12-1, 0-0 Conf are coming up on 1/3/2019. Why get worn out? In the NFL I would call this a "look ahead game." Loser 45-75 (cover by 7)
That logic could have been said of Zona except they are on my "do not fade" list.
GONZAGA BULLDOGS 13-2 1st in WCC vs. have no fear of CSU BAKERSFIELD ROADRUNNERS 8-5, 1st in WAC ever making the playoffs so there is no need for style points. Winner 89-54
So I have learned:
Gonzaga plays without mercy, at least this early. Make 2 unit bets with 1 unit on alt ATS+200
UWM much better than GB.

No one has posted a play I like for tonight
up-to-date 2-2
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Old 01-02-2019, 08:26 AM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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In the "community add stats and picks thread", I added early Gonzaga will be an easy cover without really knowing anything except last year they were in the mix. zona covers alt ATS.

I also added, "Auburn has weeks of wins with zero covers but that happens around Feb."

On 1/5 at 8:00 PM CT Santa Clara 8-6, 0-0 Conf is away at #7 Gonzaga 13-2, 0-0 Conf

My Gonzaga -25.5 ATS covered with 34 so a better bet was 2 (or more) units ATS and 1 unit against the alt -32.5 +180 ATS. That cannot keep up forever but (about) 13-4 ATS, this should be another safe blind bet by just following the trend of:
Gonzaga covers!
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Old 01-02-2019, 10:19 AM
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Old 01-02-2019, 01:18 PM
ONE51RUM ONE51RUM is offline
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Hey kid im very sorry for not seeing your ? or replying , i was taking a few days off hoops kinda till yesterday, and last night i was on the phoner with SUICIDE prevention peopleafter ohio state decided 28-3 almost into 4th qtr was a good time to stop playing, covering by 19 and a decent team, youhold a team, i mean dominate a team for 3 qtrs, only possible reason that wash got back in was lack of concentration, knowing your up big, and as an athlete thats not suppose to happen, ny wife being an ohio st grad , i ragged on her all night about how bad they are, her words were "they won" lol

but again sorry, if you ever have a ? or thought even if its against any plays i have feel free to post your thoughts on my thread if i have one that day,

gl 151
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Last edited by ONE51RUM; 01-02-2019 at 01:19 PM.
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Old 01-02-2019, 03:51 PM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ONE51RUM View Post
Hey, kid, I'm very sorry for not seeing your post or replying,,
gl 151
No problem. I had Wash huskies +7 under 55 following bigtom at the score you said. I gave up and I watched a 42-minute episode of Lucifer, (It's devilishly funny) My computer was on and a check saw it was a game again. Very hard needle to thread a win and keep under 55. We enjoyed the exciting finish. Well, exciting for wash + and under ticket holders.


back to the subject:


TULANE GREEN WAVE 4-8 1st in America vs Cincinnati 11-2, 0-0 Conf.
I now have learned how while similar to NCAA Football, with its 13 game season, with many times 13 games, there is a double seeding opener. Zona opens vs not like an SEC vs Sun Belt but like SEC vs CFD II Fayetteville State Broncos with a series of 8 or so games.
Now that America conf. has a leader, the second half of the double seed continues. It has been running for some time now but I just figured that out.


Tulane at Cincinnati -22.0 -110 again easy cover. These next few games of top ten teams vs possible finalists who are all #1 in their class II conferences should all be hard fought games but easy covers.
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Old 01-02-2019, 04:51 PM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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Betting half my capper points

5dimes
College Basketball #782 Cincinnati -22 -110* vs Tulane

782 Cincinnati -22 11000------> win 10000
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Old 01-03-2019, 12:21 PM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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I have a question: "How in the hell did Toledo get beaten 74-84 by the WRIGHT STATE RAIDERS?"

We have a winner with a 32 point margin of win and a 10 point cover. Another alt ATS too likely. These are the things I put in my calendar to remind me next year. We also have a clear trend of likely final 16-64 pounding the #1 team in the second tier of conferences.

CBB - [782] Cincinnati -22-110 WIN
Score: Tulane(61) - Cincinnati(93)

Up to date 3-2
I found an interesting list. Tip 1 translates to:
Tip 1 Bet steam; sharps set the lines.
Tip No. 2: Size matters

Unlike college football, which only has 11 conferences and groupings, college basketball has 32 different conferences and leagues, from Power 5 groups like the ACC and Big Ten to small mid-majors like the Northeast Conference and Patriot League.

Because there are so many teams, oddsmakers dedicate themselves to the big-name conference which draws the most betting action, leaving them exposed when it comes to small conference lines. That means that if you can become an expert in one of these mid-majors, you give yourself an advantage over the bookies. But keep in mind that some small conference games don’t get betting odds, so research your wagering options.

Tip No. 3: Take on totals

Ask any oddsmaker or bookie and they’ll tell you the one market they fear the most is college basketball totals. On top of setting spreads for more than 300 games a week, sportsbooks will offer totals on those contests as well. These numbers are often attacked by sharp bettors the second they hit the board and adjust quickly, so if you can jump on a steam move and get a good Over or Under number before it adjusts too far, you’re at least on the wise side of the total.

Tip No. 4: Find value in the futures. I took Zona +700. Who knows?

Toledo Rockets 12-1, 0-0 Conf are hosting away team BALL STATE CARDINALS 9-4, 1st in MAC West

Take for up to -27
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Old 01-04-2019, 09:43 AM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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GoldenGreek has a theory that +9.5 is a very common line when the dog wins SU. I tried it for a tiny amount.
Minnesota at Wisconsin
Play Time: 2019-01-03 21:00
Selection: Minnesota to win
Odds: Point Spread (+9.5) -110
11 to win $10

Final Score: Wisconsin 52 Minnesota 59
Bet Type: Point Spread
Bet Odds: -110

AND

Odds: +400
Final Score: Wisconsin 52 Minnesota 59
Bet Type: MoneyLine
Bet Odds: +400

Bet Amount: $5.00
Paid Amount: $25.00

It was blinder that barely blind betting so I didn't post it. Next time I will.

Today the Toledo line is -4.5 which it should cover if trend stands.
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Old 01-04-2019, 12:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AuburnKid View Post
GoldenGreek has a theory that +9.5 is a very common line when the dog wins SU. I tried it for a tiny amount.
Minnesota at Wisconsin
Play Time: 2019-01-03 21:00
Selection: Minnesota to win
Odds: Point Spread (+9.5) -110
11 to win $10

Final Score: Wisconsin 52 Minnesota 59
Bet Type: Point Spread
Bet Odds: -110

AND

Odds: +400
Final Score: Wisconsin 52 Minnesota 59
Bet Type: MoneyLine
Bet Odds: +400

Bet Amount: $5.00
Paid Amount: $25.00

It was blinder that barely blind betting so I didn't post it. Next time I will.

Today the Toledo line is -4.5 which it should cover if trend stands.
2 1/2 and 6 1/2 also follow under that formula
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Old 01-04-2019, 01:30 PM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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Quote:
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2 1/2 and 6 1/2 also follow under that formula
Thank you. Great info. Have a hundred points on me.
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Old 01-05-2019, 08:12 AM
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Up to date 3-3.

Toledo -4.5 was not even close. The earlier plays were always -22 or higher lines. I am adding that qualifier.


Mark12 has a system play that is paying off. I am following.

Un-ranked home teams vs ranked teams system <----- Click on this.

Un-ranked home teams vs ranked teams system
This is a system ASC has posted for a few years with pretty good results. I'll try to keep up with it but no guarantees. Others feel free to jump in and help. Espn has a good site for finding the plays. The system's how it works.

The system is taking an unranked team at home vs a ranked team. As long as the spread is under 10. Bet more if the unranked team is favored.

The first play was a bigger one.
St. John's -2





I'm in on the system.

Pittsburgh +8.5
Alabama +4
Iowa State -1
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Old 01-05-2019, 08:35 AM
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Old 01-05-2019, 08:45 AM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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Up to date 3-3.

Toledo -4.5 was not even close. The earlier plays were always -22 or higher lines. I am adding that qualifier.


Mark12 has a system play that is paying off. I am following.

Un-ranked home teams vs ranked teams system <----- Click on this.

Un-ranked home teams vs ranked teams system
This is a system ASC has posted for a few years with pretty good results. I'll try to keep up with it but no guarantees. Others feel free to jump in and help. Espn has a good site for finding the plays. The system's how it works.

The system is taking an unranked team at home vs a ranked team. As long as the spread is under 10. Bet more if the unranked team is favored.

The first play was a bigger one.
St. John's -2





I'm in on the system.

Pittsburgh +8.5
Alabama +4
Iowa State -1
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Old 01-05-2019, 10:33 AM
ONE51RUM ONE51RUM is offline
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Old 01-05-2019, 10:37 AM
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Old 01-05-2019, 10:46 AM
Lamar Mundane Lamar Mundane is offline
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Old 01-05-2019, 11:06 AM
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Old 01-05-2019, 11:14 AM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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I am following member Carznbarz of


noon Cincinnati -16
it has risen to -17.5; still betable. IMO
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