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  #76  
Old 01-28-2019, 01:53 PM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is online now
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A lot of the best members are getting 2-2 splits at best.

I'm keeping my powder dry and waiting for Auburn to start its win but no cover streak.
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  #77  
Old 01-28-2019, 11:55 PM
ONE51RUM ONE51RUM is offline
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good luck kid in my opinion, never doubt yourself bro, iv'e lost a bunch of games this year just by going against what i know, or over thinking something, if you a have system or a few of them, and u have found yourself to be winning before at a decent % stick with it , for example last week Belmont played at Jacksonville st....2nd game between them already, jax st won on the road at belmont in 1st game pretty easily, so 2nd game at jax st, line is jax st-1...my 1st thought was jacksonville st wins this easily, they beat them before, and will again, then (overthink) but why a line of 1?? whats the line saying ....i think it meant odds guys (which i knew many and still do) were thinking this was going to be payback, close game, belmont might win , exactly what i was thinking,right after i capped it and said jacksonville wins this ...point being i should not have thought about that at all, sometimes that does play in, like before i cap it..lol Once i capped it, thought should stop, place bet on to next game ..and jacksonville won by like 10 or 11 ....all im saying bro is just go with what you know..... maybe do this....look at games, make a line of your own , or just pick a few games preferably not majot ones like duke vs mich.... just teams ya know ..... when lines comeout see how close you are, the ones your way off of , look into those and see why , if its injuries you didnt know about disregaurd those ,
gl brother 151
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  #78  
Old 01-29-2019, 12:15 AM
ONE51RUM ONE51RUM is offline
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Wink

Quote:
Originally Posted by AuburnKid View Post
I have a question: "How in the hell did Toledo get beaten 74-84 by the WRIGHT STATE RAIDERS?"

We have a winner with a 32 point margin of win and a 10 point cover. Another alt ATS too likely. These are the things I put in my calendar to remind me next year. We also have a clear trend of likely final 16-64 pounding the #1 team in the second tier of conferences.

CBB - [782] Cincinnati -22-110 WIN
Score: Tulane(61) - Cincinnati(93)

Up to date 3-2
I found an interesting list. Tip 1 translates to:
Tip 1 Bet steam; sharps set the lines.
Tip No. 2: Size matters

Unlike college football, which only has 11 conferences and groupings, college basketball has 32 different conferences and leagues, from Power 5 groups like the ACC and Big Ten to small mid-majors like the Northeast Conference and Patriot League.

Because there are so many teams, oddsmakers dedicate themselves to the big-name conference which draws the most betting action, leaving them exposed when it comes to small conference lines. That means that if you can become an expert in one of these mid-majors, you give yourself an advantage over the bookies. But keep in mind that some small conference games don’t get betting odds, so research your wagering options.

Tip No. 3: Take on totals

Ask any oddsmaker or bookie and they’ll tell you the one market they fear the most is college basketball totals. On top of setting spreads for more than 300 games a week, sportsbooks will offer totals on those contests as well. These numbers are often attacked by sharp bettors the second they hit the board and adjust quickly, so if you can jump on a steam move and get a good Over or Under number before it adjusts too far, you’re at least on the wise side of the total.

Tip No. 4: Find value in the futures. I took Zona +700. Who knows?

Toledo Rockets 12-1, 0-0 Conf are hosting away team BALL STATE CARDINALS 9-4, 1st in MAC West

Take for up to -27
KID? not sure where you got this BUT
Iv'e been saying that in here for years, its what i was taught by handicappers in Las Vegas when i was young and trying to learn and get better, and all i did was listen, never acted like i knew it all , and i thought i was decent then, this fit for college hoops big time, it was during college hoops in 85-86 when i was out there, i was told this by many, iv'e always passed it along, TIP 1 early in the season is the best time to make good money if your up to date on all mid major and small schools, TIP 2 wed, thurs, and saturday with as many as 70 games or more odds makers will make mistakes, more will happen early in the year, ....iv'e posted about this at least 2-3 times a year , many think your an idiot for saying it, or just don't believe ya when you do, or don't believe anyone about anything , TIP 3 the mistakes will almost always be in the smaller schools games, because lines are always sharper on major TV games between big schools, now remember back then you only had a few games on tv each night , today with so many channels i think its not as much , but on the BIG games like BIG MONDAY when ya got duke/n.car mich/mich st games like that, there will be more action on those, the occasional gambler will bet on those, its also why there were always limits on small school games which were smaller (limits)than those of the bigger schools

thank you for posting this..lol never seen it written before ....i'm sure many have heard me share it ... i use to get ? about everything i said..lol
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  #79  
Old 01-29-2019, 03:27 AM
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Quote:
thank you for posting this..lol never seen it written before ....I'm sure many have heard me share it ... i use to get ? about everything i said..lol
It was just an observation. I put email reminders 11 months into the future to make a certain bet. I once thought I was getting the first stage of Alzheimer's but I now know it is called turning the big SEVEN-OH. i.e. It is common to lose short term memory but recall events like my Dad's 1965 Pontiac tires all wore out within 15,000 miles. It is just when people were once hunter-gathers and someone had to remember to move to the river to catch the fall salmon run (or whatever).

I put in:
1, Kentucky Derby favorite has won the last six in a row.
2, Second game winner of MLB doubleheader is likely the game#1 loser. Only so many pitchers on a team.
3, The next bet is yet TBD but it will be something like:

Take perennial top teams like Gonzaga and 9 like it and bet 10% of the bank on them to cover up to -27 in the first game then ride the winners. An Ole Miss follower went 14-1 ATS if I recall.

I win following these trends and right now we are between trends.

I am saving:
Quote:
TIP 1 early in the season is the best time to make good money if your up to date on all mid major and small schools, TIP 2 wed, thurs, and saturday with as many as 70 games or more odds makers will make mistakes, more will happen early in the year, ....iv'e posted about this at least 2-3 times a year , many think your an idiot for saying it, or just don't believe ya when you do, or don't believe anyone about anything , TIP 3 the mistakes will almost always be in the smaller schools games, because lines are always sharper on major TV games between big schools, now remember back then you only had a few games on tv each night , today with so many channels i think its not as much , but on the BIG games like BIG MONDAY when ya got duke/n.car mich/mich st games like that, there will be more action on those, the occasional gambler will bet on those, its also why there were always limits on small school games which were smaller (limits)than those of the bigger schools
for later examination.
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Last edited by AuburnKid; 01-29-2019 at 03:31 AM.
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  #80  
Old 01-29-2019, 10:26 AM
Old School Pro Old School Pro is offline
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Really Good But - Pizza!

I really enjoyed this exchange guys especially the bit about the hunter-gatherers (Note to Self: Set e-mail reminder for fall salmon spawning season!)

But I ask:

More of a beg:

It has been some time and we have not heard much of the Ohio pizza guy with many pizza shops who liked to bet all the even numbered teams or sometimes all the odd-numbered (visiting) teams.

And even though he had at least six pizzerias he couldn't sell enough pizzas to pay his basketball losses.

I love handicapping tips but I like Pizza Guy stories too.

So thanks to both of you for brightening my cold Brooklyn morning.

How about an Ohio Pizza Guy Thread one day?

Just askin....

- OSP

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  #81  
Old 01-29-2019, 10:43 AM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is online now
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I would usually take #3 Virginia 18-1, 16-3 ATS because of the ATS number.
But #23 NC State 16-4, 12-8 ATS should keep it close at home. Virginia by 3.

North Carolina State +6˝-107 1 unit.
And a ten spot they win SU Risk:
$10.00 - Win: $25.20 North Carolina State +252
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  #82  
Old 01-30-2019, 04:29 AM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is online now
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I finally added a win to my picked by me and capped by me column. Looking at the vig of -107 it looks like I sold a half point. The game would have been good at +4 +110 too. Several members have advised that they sell a few halves to try to get the vig close to +100.

One thing in judging a tout is "Are they willing to take a ML?" Or do they guard their W/L record while telling you to take the home dog +points even tho their capping is screaming a SU win? My $10 @ +252 did not win but it could not have been closer losing by 1.

CBB - [616] North Carolina State +6˝-107 WIN
Score: Virginia(66) - North Carolina State(65)

Tonight Jorden-Hare will be rocking as one-time #16 Auburn -15 -102 hosts and gives a beat-down to Mizz, 10-8, 7-10-1 ATS vs 13-6, 8-9-1 ATS. The ATS lineups offer no big clue as to how they are trending. Auburn has had 2 away games to conference teams and lost two by 2 and 3 with an 8 point loss from Miss State away by 8. I think Auburn will show no mercy and cover the 15 @ home.

I see UAB, 14-7, 1st in C-USA is away @ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
14-7, 9-9-1 ATS 5-16, 4-15-0 ATS. In this game, I am following the ATS trend of Blue Raiders not covering. I also have a lean towards schools that produce M.D.s like Vandy and UAB. It has to do with the mandatory great hand/eye coordination to become a surgeon. Vandy football commonly goes under because great kickers keep putting their opponents inside the 9 because of the punter. I am selling some points. Bets:
UAB -6˝+101 and
Auburn -15 -102


My Superbowl pick is over 60 but I am taking TOTAL o58+110 - (New England Patriots vrs Los Angeles Rams)
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  #83  
Old 01-30-2019, 04:39 AM
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Nice call on NC ST AK

Good luck today
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2018-19 Records
MLB str8s = 64-74
MLB Parlays = 3-11
NHL P/Os = 25-33
NHL str8s = 194-166
NHL Parlays = 13-25
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  #84  
Old 01-30-2019, 06:30 AM
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Good luck tonight AK, is Wiley playing for the Tigers tonight? Sweep'em buddy
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  #85  
Old 01-30-2019, 09:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AuburnKid View Post
\
CBB - [616] North Carolina State +6˝-107 WIN
Score: Virginia(66) - North Carolina State(65)

Tonight Jorden-Hare will be rocking as one-time #16 Auburn -15 -102 hosts and gives a beat-down to Mizz, 10-8, 7-10-1 ATS vs 13-6, 8-9-1 ATS. The ATS lineups offer no big clue as to how they are trending. Auburn has had 2 away games to conference teams and lost two by 2 and 3 with an 8 point loss from Miss State away by 8. I think Auburn will show no mercy and cover the 15 @ home.


UAB -6˝+101 not even close. and Auburn -15 -102 I must rely on more sats then the better ATS number UAB loses SU 65-71.


My Superbowl pick is over 60 but I am taking TOTAL o58+110 - (New England Patriots vrs Los Angeles Rams)
Auburn 92-58 is an easy cover. relying on old ATS Stats to take losing UAB SU was a mistake i will not do again. I am going to capp my own NCAAM games from now on.
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  #86  
Old 01-31-2019, 10:29 AM
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When the "looks good on paper" BYU, 2nd in WCC, plays a real team like San Fran Dons it is a 19 point beatdown.

Gonzaga is worth selling a bit of points to get vig down. I'm on:

#4 Gonzaga -14˝-102 2 units

My UAB and other M.D. school blinders were on last night hiding a nice SU win by the dog. Learning event.








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  #87  
Old 02-01-2019, 01:48 AM
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Score: Gonzaga(93) - BYU(63) 2 unit win

thursday cbb
acc fan is hot!. After a 7-3 day, the 4 I took were winners. Typical responce from Dale City:

Smokin Hot ACC. Another great job yesterday Bro. Keep it rolling. Good luck!

thursday cbb
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  #88  
Old 02-01-2019, 06:06 AM
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Hoosiercatdaddy
Posted 2 plays and they were very solid covers
East Tenn St(-4) 74-66-8-4=4 point cover
UT Rio Grande Valley(-19) 77-46=31-19=12 point cover

I would rather see 2 winners like UT Rio Grande Valley than many squeakers. A very nice day. Our top pickers are once again hitting some sweet spots after several weeks of 25% winners.

sweet-krown
0-4 bad night Wednesday
4 plays today

1200$ Oral Roberts +11 game 86-80 +11= 3 point cover
200$ Pepperdine -5.5 83-58 a slaughter
200$ Tulane +5.5 game 66-65 winner by 5

200$ Mercer +7 game 76-67 loser by 2

A nice $1200 plus 200 winning day.


secondbase, a solid player losses Penn State +7 99-90 misses cover by 2. loser

southerncoach is pursuing a model of Home dogs with REVENGE Some good streaks, then big loser day. He is following Home Dogs with REVENGE
darth wager post a 3-0 sweep.


belmont kid had Detroit mercy -5 as a blowout winner 78-64 cover by 9, easy.

I just summed up the plays at the top of the board. Many others are out there. Plenty to follow beside me, for sure.

sweet-krown has just posted.
Friday ytd 278-276-5

3-1 last night hit my big play again

5 plays
200$ each

Brown -1.5
Quinnipiac +3.5
Maryland +5.5
Northern Kentucky - IUPUI Over 142.5
Wright State halftime full-time

I very much like Maryland +5-110 #24 Wisconsin has a target on their back since getting a top 25 rating again. Wisky is mentioned in the mark12 system. I had a question which was very well answered here:


Quote:
AK questions: Speaking of math let's look at this:

Let A stand for 100% of the things that be included in A. Thus A=A. If A=A then Wisconsin=Wisconsin. All of the things that can be Wisconsin are there.
Then if a coach here or there votes Wisconsin into the #24 spot, what has changed? Why is Wisconsin more or less than it was?

Conversely, once #16 Auburn loses 3 conference games dropping out of top 25. Then -15 at home, it kicks butt? I never saw the logic of how this worked.

actionsportscentral gives a nice answer.

Quote:
The idea is that it brings extra motivation. People want to knock off Wisconsin when they are ranked. And Auburn dropping out gives them extra motivation to win as well.
Very little red on the cards for a change.
betting Maryland +5-110 1 unit

Good luck to all, good morning

Last edited by AuburnKid; 02-01-2019 at 06:11 AM. Reason: added quotes
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  #89  
Old 02-01-2019, 11:33 AM
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Hoosiercatdaddy

Thanks, guys. A big ass one coming today.... waiting

following acc fan Penn -5.5
Davidson -1
buffalo over 156

Boston College +8
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  #90  
Old 02-01-2019, 04:07 PM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is online now
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acc fan was 7-7, not quite as hot as I thought. I just took 4 of the winners out of the 14 posted that I liked.

I am trying a COMPACT ROUND ROBIN (5P-4T) to win $1,253.46 if all win, not likely.

Risk: $100.00 - Win: $1,253.46

Pennsylvania -5˝-110

Game Start 02/01/2019 @ 04:10 PM

Brown -2˝-103

Game Start 02/01/2019 @ 06:00 PM

Davidson -1˝-112

Game Start 02/01/2019 @ 06:00 PM

Maryland +5-110

Game Start 02/01/2019 @ 08:00 PM

Write-In Game - TOTAL o157-110 - (Buffalo vrs Bowling Green)

Game Start 02/01/2019 @ 07:00 PM

and
Risk: $20.04 - Win: $500.14

Pennsylvania -5˝-110

Game Start 02/01/2019 @ 04:10 PM

Brown -2˝-103

Game Start 02/01/2019 @ 06:00 PM

Davidson -1˝-112

Game Start 02/01/2019 @ 06:00 PM

Maryland +5-110

Game Start 02/01/2019 @ 08:00 PM

Write-In Game - TOTAL o157-110 - (Buffalo vrs Bowling Green)

Game Start 02/01/2019 @ 07:00 PM
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Last edited by AuburnKid; 02-01-2019 at 04:09 PM.
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  #91  
Old 02-01-2019, 04:27 PM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is online now
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Following belmont kid who hit his game yesterday with a solid cover.
$74.07 - Win: $100.00

Illinois Chicago +135 @ 08:00 PM
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  #92  
Old 02-02-2019, 07:30 AM
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[QUOTE=AuburnKid;8353565]acc fan was 7-7, not quite as hot as I thought. I just took 4 of the winners out of the 14 posted that I liked.
I am trying a COMPACT ROUND ROBIN (5P-4T) to win $1,253.46 if all win, not likely.
Risk: $100.00 - Win: $1,253.46

Pennsylvania -5˝-110
Brown -2˝-103
Davidson -1˝-112
Maryland +5-110
Write-In Game - TOTAL o157-110 - (Buffalo vrs Bowling Green)
and Risk: $20.04 - Win: $500.14

Pennsylvania -5˝-110
Brown -2˝-103
Davidson -1˝-112
Maryland +5-110
TOTAL o157-110 - (Buffalo vrs Bowling Green)

belmont kid who hit his game yesterday with a solid cover.
$74.07 - Win: $100.00


Too hard to run a win/loss with a RR but taking Brown with any number except what was posted early was a loser.
Taking the earlier line of Brown -1.5 is a winner. Chasing it past 2 in the later RR to -2.5 made it a loser.
Looks like belmont kid pick of a dog win SU saves my bacon. Up $4.58 on the day. Call it a wash or no-action day.

************************************************** *********
for today, Saturday, always the big day. I think the #2 Duke Blue Devils will name the score vs ST. JOHN'S RED STORM

betting
Duke -17˝-110 1 unit

Game Start 02/02/2019 @ 11:00 AM early start



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  #93  
Old 02-02-2019, 08:39 AM
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sweet-krown posts:
ytd 281-280-5

2000$ love love love it Akron ML +101

300$ Duke - st John's Over 160
300$ Kentucky halftime full-time
300$ UCLA ML
150$ Georgia Southern +2.5
150$ Oklahoma State +3.5
150$ Elon PK
___________


Akron +101 @ 02:30 PM early start 1 unit.
Duke -17˝-110 1 unit

Game Start 02/02/2019 @ 11:00 AM early start
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  #94  
Old 02-02-2019, 11:55 AM
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Prof's Picks <--- click to see.
Prof101 has a teaser system that has been 6-1 YTD. I am trying two.


2 TEAM TEASER 6 points BASKETBALL
Risk: $130.00 - Win: $100.00
Quote:
George Mason +14-110 (B+6)
Cal Poly +14˝-115 (B+6)
2 TEAM TEASER 6 PTS BASKETBALL to win
Risk: $130.00 - Win: $100.00
Quote:

Michigan State -8-110 (B+6)
Texas +14-115 (B+6)
I am sticking with the top teams to continue their slaughters of the lesser teams because of it is Saturday night.
Gonzaga -22-118
Tennessee -11˝-106
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  #95  
Old 02-02-2019, 03:25 PM
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Picking what I think are the better pickers, I am adding:

George Mason +8-110 1 unit
1st Half Utah State -7-105 1 unit
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Old 02-03-2019, 06:05 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AuburnKid View Post
Picking what I think are the better pickers, I am adding:
1st Half Utah State -7-105 1 unit winner
Akron(65) - Ohio(53) +101, winner
Saint Johns(61) - Duke(91) -18 winner
Tennessee -11˝-106 winner
1st Half Utah State -7-105 1 unit winner

Gonzaga -22-118 loser
George Mason +8-110 1 unit loser
both teasers are losers. As individuals, they went 2-2. Bookmaker has me losing $122 on the day.


I can see that when sweet krown says love, love, love and bets $2000 I should pay attention and bet more. Today he likes:

1000$ Georgetown - Villanova Under 156.5 2 units
TOTAL u156˝-110 - (Georgetown vrs Villanova)

Game Start 02/03/2019 @ 11:00 AM early start








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Old 02-04-2019, 03:10 PM
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Today I like Oklahoma +125 to beat #17 Iowa State at home. 1 unit.








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Old 02-04-2019, 10:34 PM
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SOB Just needed 1 FG or if I took the points. Oh, well.
Final
1 2 T
ISU 75
OKLA 74

Going back to #2 Duke -24 -105

Game Start 02/05/2019 @ 06:00 PM

Florida Gators travel to Jorden Hare and get beaten 1 unit. Auburn -7˝-110 1 unit







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  #99  
Old 02-05-2019, 09:16 AM
fat-freddie fat-freddie is offline
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Like the Tigers tonight, good luck Kid
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  #100  
Old 02-05-2019, 10:33 AM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is online now
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Money is moving to Auburn. I am adding a second unit @ -8 -110




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