Because this is a lackluster matchup, take the Over on empty seats in this one.

[mickey]

This one sets up to be a high scoring affair between two decent offenses and two even better QB's. The storyline we will probably hear most often in this one is going to be all about FAU's Rusty Smith and CMU's Dan LeFeFevour, but in reality it is a story of two teams whose defenses have been so porous at times that these QB's need to put up 500 yards and 50 points just to be competitive in games.

FAU started the season going 1-5 in their first six games and looked like anything but defending conference champs.

On the other side, CMU managed to go 8-4 despite Lefoevur being injured and missing a few games. The Chippewas had a few chances to have another well above average season, but dropped a showdown type game against Ball State and then inexplicably lost to Eastern Michigan in a game where EMU QB Andy Schmitt threw the ball 80 times for over 500 yards.

Dan LeFevour is an exceptional talent and I have been impressed by him. Antonio Brown is a big play threat and has the potential to hit a home run on every down. FAU plays physical football but I have seen them play a few different times this year and they don’t seem to be in sync as a TEAM. FAU quarterback Rusty Smith yells at his receivers after they drop balls, they commit a million penalties a game and I will guarantee they lose the field position battle to CMU who plays it exceptionally. FAU does not play smart football and could get blown out if there are not careful. The offense has thrived when playing at Ford Field, averaging 40.6 points per game in five previous appearances en route to a 3-2 all-time record.

ATS Trends
Florida Atlantic

Owls are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Owls are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Owls are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Owls are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a S.U. win.
Owls are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Owls are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a ATS win.
(Owls head coach Howard Schnellenberger possesses a perfect 5-0 bowl mark)

Central Michigan

Chippewas are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Chippewas are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss.
Chippewas are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. loss.
Chippewas are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Chippewas are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite.
Chippewas are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Chippewas are 30-12-3 ATS in their last 45 games overall.
Chippewas are 23-10-3 ATS in their last 36 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.



The Pick:

I prefer a defensive battle and don't trust teams that can't stop other teams. While I have little faith in either team, I think that CMU has a few things in their favor, which has me leaning their way.
Firstly, they are virtually playing at home. Secondly, the rest will have given them time to heal their nagging injuries. Lastly, this is their third consecutive time in the Motor City Bowl

While Central Michigan has been a staple of postseason play, which CMU team shows up: The team that lost to EMU or the team that beat three bowl teams?
Defensively, Central Michigan will lean heavily on a line that accounted for 28 sacks this season, which is more than the team total for any other school in the Mid-American Conference.
I'm picking CMU in this matchup of very suspect defenses because there is a little more uncertainty on Howard Schnellenberger's staff as the Owls look for their next offensive coordinator. I also think the Chippewas are much more adept at forcing turnovers and have a much better return game.

**** Central Michigan-7****

[mickey]

Please delete this post..Already moved it to it's rightful place.