Betting on #11, #12, and #13 seeds to win opening rounds

[Buckeyes of Texas]

For those who like to play those higher seeds to win:

since 1985: these are from 1st round action (92 total games played)
#12 seeds have won 30 times (32.6%)
#11 seeds have won 29 times (31.5%)
#13 seeds have won 18 times (19.6%)

since 2000: these are from 1st round action (32 total games played)
#12 seeds have won 11 times (34.4%)
#11 seeds have won 11 times (34.4%)
#13 seeds have won 6 times (18.7%)

In 2007, #11 seed won 2 games.
For the #12 and #13 seeds neither seed won a game in 2007.

I notice most of the #11, #12, and #13 seeds that do win are lesser name schools and very seldom a big name school won. Is there more respect for a bigger school and the better seeded teams are more prepared.
Case in point this year:
Mich St #5 vs Temple #12
Vandy #4 vs Siena #13.
What higher seeded team would you respect more?
It would be Temple for me.

gl tomorrow BuckEyes of Texas----------------

PS: Watch putting your $$$ on the higher seeded(#12 etc) teams...because some tricky dicky tells you, "Its awesome baby a 12 beat a 5". Yes in the past but will it happen this year.

[pittviper]

great info bud..

if it happens 34.4%, 34.4%, 18.7% of the time..

then there is good shot that atleast one 11 seed will win, one 13 seed will win, and possibly a 13 seed winner..

There should be 3 winners between 11-12-13 this year if looking at the statistics... my guess is that this year there will be 2-11 seed winners and 1-12 seed winner.. once again thanks and gl

[pittviper]

because if 11 and 12 seeds win 34.4% of the time, and 8 of them are playing
8*0.344=
2.75 winners

if 13 seeds win 18.7% and 4 of them are playing... 4*0.187= 0.75
=0.75 winners

so there should be 3.5, 11-13 seed winners each year... so 3-4 this year would be logical

[Buckeyes of Texas]

p-vip...don't forget those stats were based on 92 and 32 games played over a big time frame...

Figure it this way in those 32 games, that were played in 8 years(2000-07), the 12 seeds won 11 of those games. Thats closer to 1.3 wins per year, but in year 2002 the #12th seed won 3 games in the 1st round and 2006 they won 2 games in the 1st round. Almost 1/2 of those 11 games the 12th seed were won in two years...
2000 and 2007 were the only years a 12th seed didn't win one game in the opening round.

Last year (2007) the 12 and 13 seeds were 0 wins and 11s went 2-2.

BuckEyes of Texas

[pittviper]

yes.. it doesnt necessarily mean that there will be 2,3 or 4 - 11 to 13 seed wins.. but it is a good tool when deciding what teams to use for your bracket... if you had up the percentages it is telling you that

there is a 348% chance that atleast one 11,12 or 13 seed team will win.. so always a good idea to try and predict atleast one upset.. lol

[Buckeyes of Texas]

you got it...and my 11 seed to win is BAYLOR...
Reason:
1. Homer
2. They lucked out getting in after the Colo loss in the 12th tournament.
3. They can flat out shoot the ball.
4. More then one big scorer.
5. Sad story made good
6. They been waiting for this chance.......

go over,over,over............................
BuckEyes of Texas

[pittviper]

lol good luck on baylor man.. i like 'em too

ive got
11 - Baylor
12- Temple

[Buckeyes of Texas]

Originally Posted by pittviper

lol good luck on baylor man.. i like 'em too

ive got
11 - Baylor
12- Temple

hit them PV...I plan on making some serious $$$ this madness. I've been doing alot of research of teams and previous tournament played to try and get an angle.......
BuckEyes of Texas....