Big East Tourney Wins over 16?

[actionsportscentral]

I'm all over this - it's +120 at 5dimes....

I run a pool in my office and literally every sheet but a few has the Big East winning more than 16 games.

They have 11 teams as you all know. Villanova, Marquette, Cincy and St John's (and I suppose GTown and West Virginia too) are all in "coin toss" first round games. Assume 3 of them win and the other 5 big east teams cruise. That's 8 wins already.

Pitt, Syracuse and ND will all be heavy favorites in the next round. That's 3 more wins and we are at 11. If Cincy and Marquette win in round 1, they'd be up against another big east team - which hurts us. But WV, Villanova, GT, Louisville and ST John's would not be. Assume another 2 wins here and we are at 13.

So we'd be sitting with 5 teams in the sweet 16 - and only needing 3 more wins.

I know crazy things can happen - but what am I missing here? Do you guys like this play?

[actionsportscentral]

Projects like this:

Pitt (1) - 3 wins very likely, probably 4
ND (2) - 3 wins very likely
Syr & UConn (3) 2-3 wins very likely (call it 5 between them)
Louisville (4) 2 wins very likely
West Virginia (5) probably good for 1
Cincy, GT & St John's (6) probably good for 1 each
Villanova (9) - may get 1
Marquette (11) - may get 1

If we get 13 from the top 4 seeds and 1 each from the 5 and 6 seeds, that's 17. Gives some cushion for upsets, considering that one of the top 5 teams will go on to win some more. Plus, I like Louisville and UConn a lot in their brackets to keep advancing.

[Romanowski]

Just food for thought, its +120 for a reason

Louisville this year might be Pitinos best coaching job ever, even better than his Providence days

He has done a good job of masking their lack of talent, they arent that good

UCONN may be spent, ND plays no defense

gl

[actionsportscentral]

You're right - that's what worries me - it looks too easy. Why would someone take the under here? It would be ballsy to take the under and only be able to win with 11 teams winning 15 games. Usually I'm a contrarian too - but my Big East bias might be tilting me into trouble.

I agree with you on Notre Dame and have St John's and West Virginia losing in the first round. However, I think Syracuse, UConn and Pitt have the potential to be in the final game which I think offsets that somewhat.

[Romanowski]

Told you Louisville was a product of coaching and their talent level was low bro

[MCP313]

Terrible matchup for Louisville today Rome with Morehead. If Louisville couldve gotten by Morehead they wouldve cruised to the elite 8.

Top to bottom these teams are evenly matched for the most part and its luck of the draw really.

[TheLink]

Originally Posted by MtrCtyPimp

Terrible matchup for Louisville today Rome with Morehead. If Louisville couldve gotten by Morehead they wouldve cruised to the elite 8.

Top to bottom these teams are evenly matched for the most part and its luck of the draw really.

you keep saying this and I find it hard to believe Louisville would have rolled over Kansas.

[MCP313]

Originally Posted by TheLink

you keep saying this and I find it hard to believe Louisville would have rolled over Kansas.

I have 2 brackets and in both I have Kansas losing. Once to Illinois and once to the eliminated Cardinals.

Dont get me wrong Kansas is a great team but they wouldve been in the neighborhood of a 4' fav vs Ville and 6' vs Illinois which is hardly some lock.

This current KU squad is a tournament choker IMO and I learned the hard way last year and won't fall victim again.

[MCP313]

BTW who was offering this ASC? Did you happen to catch the B 10 total?

[Romanowski]

you may think kansas will "choke" but that would mean they play below what they are capable of, below their talent level, because their talent is high

what im saying is louisville isnt that talented, pitino did a great job coaching all year to mask it

they simply arent that good, and if they played kansas, and both were at full horses

it wouldnt be fukkin close

[MCP313]

Not gonna find out now are we

[actionsportscentral]

Didn't see the Big 10 total.

So now there are 4 wins in the books with 5 teams still to play today -
Syracuse, GTown, Villanova, Marquette and Notre Dame.

Hopefully I'll have at least 7 wins in the books with 7 teams still alive. If that's the case, then 2 of them play each other (giving us the 8th win) and 4 of the other 5 will be favorites in their games.

Seems like as long as one or two Big East teams make the final 4, this works.