College Basketball Bubble Watch

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Bubble watch: Calculating at-large possibilities

Andy Glockner
ESPN.com

It's Championship Week. Selection Sunday is just around the corner, so let's get straight to the updated look at the at-large picture.

Here are the teams that are "locks" or "should be in"s from the six biggest conferences:

ACC: Duke, North Carolina, Clemson, Miami
Big East: Georgetown, UConn, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pitt, Marquette, West Virginia
Big Ten: Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan State
Big 12: Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Baylor
Pac-10: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC
SEC: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State

Assuming there are no surprise automatic-bid winners from these leagues, that means 21 of the 34 at-large bids are accounted for, leaving 13 up for grabs.

Next, three leagues are in very good shape to get two teams in:

WCC: Gonzaga, Saint Mary's
Missouri Valley: Drake, Illinois State
Mountain West: BYU and (right now) UNLV

That would leave 10 at-large bids. That number could drop, though, if any of the following teams don't win their conference tournaments:

C-USA: Memphis (lock)
Horizon: Butler (lock)
Sun Belt: South Alabama (should be in)
MAC: Kent State (should be in)
A-10: Xavier (lock)
CAA: VCU (bubble candidate)
SoCon: Davidson (bubble candidate)

The most likely scenario right now is that seven or eight bids will remain, assuming two or three of those teams won't win their respective conference tourneys.

From the remaining teams, Arizona, Arizona State, UMass, Arkansas, Texas A&M and Kentucky look to be best-positioned right now, but most of those teams face extremely important quarterfinal games in their conference tourneys, so that picture could change in a hurry.

If all those teams do hang on to their current position, that leaves a maximum of four bids -- and more likely just one or two -- for the following group of teams (listed in alphabetical order): Dayton, Florida, Houston, Maryland, Mississippi, New Mexico, Ohio State, Oregon, Saint Joe's, Syracuse, Temple, UAB, Villanova, Virginia Tech, Western Kentucky. Davidson and VCU also are possibilities.

As always, the records listed are Division I only, per NCAA Tournament selection guidelines. If you have a legitimate grievance or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail to bubblewatch@gmail.com.

One more bit of good news: Bubble Watch is now daily, so every day from now through Selection Sunday, you'll get a fresh look at the at-large picture.

Next update: Monday, March 10.

[BTO]

Atlantic Coast Conference
Teams that should be in: Miami (FL)
Work left to do: Virginia Tech, Maryland

Three are in. Who else will join North Carolina, Duke and Clemson? Miami is best positioned, but isn't there yet. Beyond that, Virginia Tech and Maryland still need some wins. It could be just a four-bid year for the ACC.

Should be in:

Miami (FL) [20-9 (8-8), RPI: 25, SOS: 30] Their overtime loss at Florida State on Saturday was disappointing, but the Canes still look to be in pretty good shape. If they can avoid a loss in their first ACC tourney game, they should land safely in to the field. Miami had a few credible wins in nonconference play, including victories over Mississippi State and VCU, which is more than a number of other bubble teams have to offer. The Canes .500 record in ACC play should be enough, barring unforeseen developments.

Work left to do:

Virginia Tech [18-11 (9-6), RPI: 57, SOS: 54] The Hokies have a crucial game at Clemson on Sunday, and very well might need to win it. Their nonconference schedule has next to nothing in it, other than losses to very good (and a couple of OK) teams, and their nine conference wins are not overly impressive (sweeps of Maryland, BC and Virginia, and single wins over FSU, Ga. Tech and Wake). The RPI remains questionable, too.

Maryland [18-12 (8-7), RPI: 65, SOS: 14] The Terps have to get the game at Virginia on Sunday, and then they probably need two more wins beyond that in the ACC tourney. They would be in a first-round game that won't really help, and then what would be a critical quarterfinal game against another bubble team. Maryland was swept by Virginia Tech and lost to Miami, which is trouble. The Terps' RPI is now extremely questionable for an at-large, in part because of a large number of home and neutral-site losses. One of those, to VCU, could hurt if the Rams don't win the CAA's automatic bid.

Big East Conference
Teams that should be in: West Virginia
Work left to do: Syracuse, Villanova

Pitt moves into lock status just because there's no way the Panthers can drop below the slew of lesser teams below them. That makes six in for the conference. West Virginia looks to be in pretty good shape but doesn't want to give the committee an excuse by dropping its BET opener. After that, Syracuse and Villanova might play each other, which would immediately end the league's dream of landing nine bids.

Should be in:

West Virginia [21-9 (11-7), RPI: 39, SOS: 59] The Mountaineers got past St. John's in overtime and move ever closer to the field of 65. Beating Pitt earlier in the week should amount to something big, as most of the Eers' league wins are over the bottom half of the league. Still, winning six of their past eight is a nice push toward the dance. As long as WVU doesn't stub its toe against the No. 12 seed in the opening round of the Big East tourney, it looks to be in solid shape. The best thing WVU did in nonconference play was probably the two-point loss to Tennessee.

Work left to do:

Syracuse [19-12 (9-9), RPI: 47, SOS: 8] The Orange got the two wins it needed to close the regular season, including a big win over Marquette at home on Saturday. It still looks reasonable to assume it needs two more, which could include a shot at bubble buddy Villanova and then Big East champ Georgetown, a team it has split with in two well-played meetings. The Orange is still only 2-7 against the RPI Top 50, which is a mark against the team's profile. The schedule strength is a plus, though, and Syracuse's ability to hang in there after losing Eric Devendorf for the season reflects well.

Villanova [19-11 (9-9), RPI: 56, SOS: 63] The Cats also won their past two to keep their hopes alive. Now they might have an elimination game against Syracuse on tap in the 8-9 game of the Big East Tournament. Will any weight be given to the questionable last-second foul calls against NC State and Georgetown that helped decide those games? Nova's nonconference strength of schedule is a problem. The Cats' best nonconference win was over George Mason, but they were routed by city rival Saint Joseph's.
Locks

[Connecticut Huskies]

[Georgetown Hoyas]

[Notre Dame Fighting Irish]

[Louisville Cardinals]

[Pittsburgh Panthers]

[Marquette Golden Eagles]


Big Ten Conference
Work left to do: Ohio State

The Big Ten looks like it will be a four-bid conference unless Ohio State can pull some late magic. This is the clearest situation of any of the bigger conferences.

Work left to do:

Ohio State [18-12 (9-8), RPI: 53, SOS: 23] It's pretty simple for Ohio State. If the Buckeyes can't beat Michigan State twice -- at home in the league finale and then in the Big Ten quarterfinals -- they're probably missing the NCAAs. The Buckeyes remain just 1-9 against the RPI Top 50. Nonconference wins over Syracuse at Madison Square Garden and against Florida were the nonconference bright spots, but both of those teams may miss the dance. OSU also lost to Tennessee, Texas A&M, North Carolina and Butler.
Locks

[Indiana Hoosiers]

[Michigan State Spartans]

[Wisconsin Badgers]

[Purdue Boilermakers]


Big 12 Conference
Teams that should be in: Baylor, Kansas State
Work left to do: Texas A&M

The Big 12 picture cleared up a good amount in the past few days. OK State and Texas Tech drop out while Oklahoma makes its way into lockdom as the third conference team in. Baylor and Kansas State's huge Saturday wins also really help their cause. Texas A&M got a big win midweek at Baylor, but then got pounded at home by Kansas and now needs to do some work in the conference tourney.

Should be in:

Baylor [20-9 (9-7), RPI: 34, SOS: 25] The Bears got a very big road win at Texas Tech on Saturday after missing out on a chance to hurt Texas A&M midweek. The Bears will play the last-place team in the opening round of the conference tourney, then would get a crack at Oklahoma in the quarters. They probably can survive a loss there, but we'll see. In nonconference play, Baylor beat Notre Dame and Winthrop on its way to the Paradise Jam title in the Virgin Islands, and it also won at South Carolina. The Bears' nonconference losses were by three points to Washington State at home and to Arkansas in Dallas.

Kansas State [19-10 (10-6), RPI: 43, SOS: 20] K-State slipped past Iowa State to get to 10-6 in the league and clinch third place. The unbalanced league schedule makes that finish a bit less definitive, but it's still a very nice chip for the Wildcats. K-State would do well to win its quarterfinal game against fellow bubbler Texas A&M. Having a win over Kansas never hurts, but a win over Cal is the best thing on a nonconference résumé that includes losses to George Mason, Notre Dame, Oregon and Xavier.

Work left to do:

Texas A&M [21-9 (8-8), RPI: 48, SOS: 67] The Aggies' inconsistency has been staggering. Though Kansas routed them to close the regular season, winning in Waco might be a season-saver -- but they very well might have to win their quarterfinal game against No. 3 Kansas State. The Aggies have a win over Texas in league play, but their best nonconference win, over Ohio State, might supplant the victory over the state rival. The other wins -- over UTEP, Washington, Alabama and LSU -- were decent but not great.
Locks

[Oklahoma Sooners]

[Texas Longhorns]

[Kansas Jayhawks]


Pacific-10 Conference
Work left to do: Arizona, Oregon, Arizona State

USC swept its way into the lock category impressively. Arizona State probably needs another win. Things are a lot more interesting now that Oregon took out both Arizona schools and finished at 9-9 while dumping Arizona to 8-10. Interestingly, Arizona State got the No. 5 seed and draws USC in the quarters, while Oregon gets Washington State. The Ducks lost twice by nine to the Cougars, while ASU split with the Trojans.

Work left to do:

Arizona [17-13 (8-10), RPI: 30, SOS: 2] The Wildcats went 3-7 down the stretch of Pac-10 play to finish under .500, which is not a great place to be. They got Nic Wise back this week but still couldn't handle Oregon on the road. The Cats went 0-6 against the RPI Top 25 but were 10-5 against the rest of the Top 100, a huge number of games and wins in that category. Assuming they beat the Beavers in the 7-10 game in the Pac-10 tourney, they probably will be fine, even at 8-10, but beating Stanford would really make things a lot easier on everyone. The Wildcats also should get some consideration for injuries. Nonetheless, let's drop them down a level until things clear up. Arizona's best nonconference win looked like it was over Texas A&M, but that win is looking dicier by the day. It might be better to focus on the road wins at UNLV and Houston.

Oregon [18-12 (9-9), RPI: 52, SOS: 29] The Ducks did what they needed to do, sweeping the Arizona schools to get to .500 in the league and finish ahead of Arizona after sweeping the Wildcats. The Ducks remain 1-7 against the top four teams in the league, which isn't a great indicator of any upside, but the profile is improving. They will get another chance at an "up" win in league play against Washington State in the Pac-10 quarters and must win that game. Kansas State and Utah were their best nonconference wins, but the Ducks also lost at Saint Mary's, Nebraska and Oakland.

Arizona State [19-11 (9-9), RPI: 74, SOS: 87] The Sun Devils missed a chance to KO Oregon, but got the back end of the trip against the bottom-feeding Beavers to finish at .500 in league play. They have amassed several very good wins over Xavier, Stanford, USC, and also swept Arizona. But the RPI/SOS combo suggests that the Sun Devils need a quarterfinal win over USC in the Pac-10 tourney to feel good about their chances.
Locks

[Stanford Cardinal]

[UCLA Bruins]

[USC Trojans]

[Washington State Cougars]


Southeastern Conference
Work left to do: Arkansas, Mississippi, Kentucky, Florida

Three teams are in, and several others have decent chances to get there. Several huge quarterfinal games could come off, including Kentucky-Ole Miss, Florida-Miss. State and Vandy-Arkansas. First things first for the Gators, though: They badly need a win at Rupp on Sunday.

Work left to do:

Arkansas [20-10 (9-7), RPI: 41, SOS: 39] The Hogs closed out with a win over Auburn to stay above .500 in league play, but can't feel completely comfortable at this point. The Hogs beat Vandy in league play and now should get another crack at the Dores in the SEC quarters. Their nonconference win over Baylor still looks good. The win over VCU is decent, too. They are 5-4 against the RPI Top 50, which is solid.

Mississippi [21-9 (7-9), RPI: 42, SOS: 61] This year's Arkansas is still alive; the Rebels won their last three games to get to 7-9 and set themselves up for an SEC quarterfinal throwdown against Kentucky, a game that will be huge for bubble implications. Finishing third in the SEC West also means the team will avoid Tennessee until the final. The Rebels did some decent work in nonconference play and are 5-4 against the RPI Top 50, which is a lot better than most bubble candidates. A win over ACC lock Clemson in Puerto Rico was the out-of-league highlight, but their victory over Sun Belt co-champ South Alabama was quality, too.

Kentucky [17-11 (11-4), RPI: 50, SOS: 13] If Kentucky can handle Florida at home on Sunday, it will be in pretty good shape. An SEC quarterfinal win over Ole Miss likely would be enough to push in the Cats. It's amazing we're even talking about this after a bad nonconference slate that included crippling home losses to Gardner-Webb and San Diego, but it's very reasonable at this point.

Florida [21-9 (8-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 93] Florida faces what appears to be a must-win at Kentucky on Sunday. The Gators couldn't hold on against Tennessee and don't have a profile that can handle 8-8 in the SEC. Florida's best nonconference win was over now-surging Temple. With the SOS really weighing on the RPI, it probably will take a deep conference tourney run for this club to have a chance to defend its titles.
Locks

[Vanderbilt Commodores]

[Mississippi State Bulldogs]

[Tennessee Volunteers]


Atlantic 10 Conference
Work left to do: Dayton, Massachusetts, Saint Joseph's, Temple

Rhode Island bit the dust after yet another home loss, this time to Charlotte, left it at 7-9. UMass is in strong position as the league's second team right now, even though the Minutemen finished behind surging Temple for second place. Can Dayton make it all the way back? The Flyers could get a big shot at Xavier in the league quarterfinals.

Work left to do:

Dayton [20-9 (8-8), RPI: 36, SOS: 37] Dayton took out Saint Joseph's on Saturday to get to .500 and wound the Hawks' chances in the process. Now it's on to the conference tourney, where the Flyers must handle Saint Louis to get a shot at league kingpin Xavier in the quarters. If they win that one, we'll talk. Dayton has two outstanding nonconference wins -- at Louisville and versus Pitt -- which others in their position don't, and several other solid nonleague wins. If Chris Wright makes it back and the Flyers look good with him, they could get some consideration there, too.

Massachusetts [21-9 (10-6), RPI: 40, SOS: 64] The Minutemen slipped past shorthanded GW and got their last six games in league play to make it to 10-6. They clearly are the No. 2 team in the league pecking order right now but don't have an easy first A-10 tourney game against the Charlotte/Rhode Island winner. Losing that game might be a crushing blow. UMass was swept by Saint Joseph's and lost to Xavier, but swept Rhode Island and beat Dayton and Charlotte in its only meetings with those teams. Like Rhode Island, it beat Syracuse. The Minutemen also beat Houston in nonconference play.

Saint Joseph's [18-11 (9-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] The Hawks are in a good deal of trouble now after they lost at Dayton to close the regular season. The good news is that they play 12-seed Fordham and then Richmond in the first two rounds of the conference tourney, which provides them with as manageable a path as you could get in this league. The season sweep of UMass could still be a chip, but the Minutemen are clearly ahead of Saint Joe's now. The Hawks' tough collection of nonleague losses doesn't help, either. Two were in overtime (Gonzaga, at Creighton), and two were close defeats (at Syracuse, Holy Cross). One problem -- from that group, only the Zags look like they will be an NCAA team.

Temple [18-12 (11-5), RPI: 59, SOS: 38] The Owls locked up second place in the league, which has to mean something, regardless of unbalanced schedules. The early nonconference losses put them behind the eight ball, and not much in nonleague play can help them. Still, they beat Xavier, have a bunch of road wins and are on a big roll entering the league tourney. They have a workable first game and then would get UMass, Charlotte or Rhode Island next.
Locks

[Xavier Musketeers]


Other at-large contenders
Teams that should be in: South Alabama, UNLV, Illinois State, Kent State, Saint Mary's
Work left to do: Davidson, Virginia Commonwealth, UAB, New Mexico, Western Kentucky, Houston

It's time to start grading tougher in these parts, which is why Valley exits for SIU and Creighton mean exits from the watch as well. Neither C-USA team helped itself Saturday, which is good news for everyone else.

Should be in:

South Alabama [23-5 (16-2), RPI: 26, SOS: 133] The Jags remain in very solid shape for an at-large bid. A finals appearance in the Sun Belt tourney might be enough, even though they'll play the event at home. South Alabama's three nonconference losses were at Ole Miss by three, at Vandy by three in double overtime and by five to Miami (Ohio) in Anaheim. Its best nonleague win was at home over Mississippi State.

UNLV [22-7 (12-4), RPI: 28, SOS: 57] The Rebels held on to second place in the league, which could be very important. The Rebels get the conference tourney on their home court, which is good and bad. It will be easier to win, but a loss would be more damaging. Their three-point loss to Arizona at home was a big missed opportunity in nonconference play. They also lost to Louisville by 20 and don't have a really good nonconference win, so league positioning and overall record will be important chips.

Illinois State [23-8 (15-5), RPI: 31, SOS: 82] The Redbirds are into the Valley final and are now in a very strong position to get an at-large, even though they play Northern Iowa instead of Southern Illinois in the semis. Their best nonconference win was over Cincinnati, so not much out of Missouri Valley Conference play will help, but finishing second by multiple games in a top-10 league and getting to that conference's final is a pretty solid statement. Barring a disaster against Drake, the Redbirds should like their chances at this point.

Kent State [24-6 (12-3), RPI: 32, SOS: 138] The Golden Flashes are the No. 1 seed in the conference tourney but need to win at Akron to avoid splitting the crown with the Zips. Win that game, and they're probably good to go. If they lose, a subsequent loss in the conference tourney would be a lot more worrisome. A win over Illinois State out of conference could come in handy.

Saint Mary's [24-5 (12-2), RPI: 33, SOS: 148] The Gaels closed out the regular season with a win and likely are in the dance at this point. It would be nice to see them get past San Diego (ostensibly) in the WCC semis, but their overall profile screams at-large bid. Their solid nonconference slate includes victims like Drake, Oregon, Seton Hall, San Diego State and Ohio.

Work left to do:

Davidson [23-6 (21-0), RPI: 44, SOS: 136] The Wildcats are still rolling through the SoCon and have made it into the league semis. If they lose in the SoCon final, would they be one of the 34 "best" teams available? Probably. Would they have one of the 34 best profiles? Probably not. The Wildcats showed in close early losses to North Carolina, Duke, NC State and UCLA how good they are, but can a SoCon team really overcome a 2-6 record in D-I nonconference games? For the Wildcats' sake, let's hope they don't want to have to find out.

Virginia Commonwealth [23-6 (15-3), RPI: 45, SOS: 143] The Rams closed out the season in style, winning eight of their last nine to take the CAA by three games over George Mason and UNC-Wilmington. They're now into the CAA semifinals and may be one win away from having a very legit claim to an at-large bid. They beat Akron, Houston and Maryland in nonconference play, so there's some good stuff there, too. The committee seems to value conference regular-season championships, especially by multiple games in good leagues, so this bodes well for VCU's ability to overcome a conference tourney loss.

UAB [22-9 (12-4), RPI: 46, SOS: 84] The Blazers were shredded at Memphis on Saturday -- not exactly the statement they were looking to make. They still finished second in the conference and are on track to meet Houston in an elimination game in the league semis. The Blazers beat Kentucky for their best nonconference win.

New Mexico [24-7 (11-5), RPI: 51, SOS: 166] The Lobos finished third in a conference that might get only two teams in. They might have to beat UNLV on the road in the conference tourney semis to be that team. Not much in their nonconference profile will help. You can see that just by looking at the SOS.

Western Kentucky [22-6 (16-2), RPI: 54, SOS: 168] WKU finished tied with South Alabama atop the Sun Belt, so that's one thing in its favor. Can the Hilltoppers make the NCAAs despite losing three times to the Jags? It seems unlikely, even with the big win total. Their best nonconference win was over Nebraska. The Toppers did come close against Gonzaga and Tennessee, but won no cigar.

Houston [22-8 (11-5), RPI: 68, SOS: 146] A regular-season-ending loss to UTEP may well have condemned Houston to automatic bid-or-bust territory. The team is still in line to have a rematch with UAB in the league semis, but that might not be enough now. Houston's nonconference losses were to VCU, UMass and Arizona, so there's no shame in any of those. The Cougars also beat Kentucky.

[oceanOO]

Terps are now Toast!