College Hoops Value Play

[theoddsfather]

The OddsFather is a documented 14-2-1 this week on the College Hardwood and hopefully you all have been making a ton of money on all the selections. As I am sure you have all noticed I use a diverse approach and treat each game differently. We have found some information angles, injury angles, roster and experience mismatches. Today we have a play that is entirely based on value.



Akron-pk




When IO looked at this game before the lines came out and made lines based on every game being played on a neutral court I made Akron an eight point favorite in this game. While I am not paid to be a linesmaker I normally have a pretty good feel for college hoops as my record indicates. Thus according to my prediction that would mean that the home court edge in this tournament is worth eight points. Three maybe, eight now way and thus Akron is a big five point value play for me today.




Akron returns several key pieces from a team that won 23 games last season. They also did something I look for with mid major teams especially and that is take an international trip. They played five games in Canada and won all five by an average of 25 points per game. These trips are important because they not only allow the teams five extra games and ten extra practices but make often times they are a fantastic bonding trip and the players have a chance to get the new guys acclimated to the team and develop some continuity.




It seems to have worked for Akron as they have come out of the gate scorching hot with a 2-0 record that includes a double digit whipping of Mississippi State on the road in their opener in a game they never trailed and were up double digits for most of the game.




Akron has a great balance of speed and size and their length and athleticism leads to a lot of turnovers. The trip was even more important to the Zips who needed to replace their starting point guard and get the new guard acclimated. The Zips have the best front court in the MAC and will have a decided advantage over Valparaiso in the paint.




Valparaiso lost three of it's starters from last season and a legendary coach who resigned for the second time so one of his sons could take over the program and they also are without star transfer Ben Boggs from Virginia Tech until Mid December.




Valparaiso is inexperienced will need some time to develop continuity with all the new players. They are also thin in the backcourt until Boggs is eligible. Look for Akron to expose the inexperience and lack of size of Valparaiso and steal the victory on the crusaders home court.

[Hoosiercatdaddy]

Never understood value plays. All of them either win or lose. Good luck