Gut Feeling for Saturday

[Keith]

won easily with Memphis last night, continuing the undeafeated streak with these "gut feeling" plays. For Saturday, I like this one alot (although not as much as I loved Memphis last night).

I don't know. The Tar Heels have been rolling through this tournament, crushing pretty much everyone they've played. They destroyed a very good Wash State team, and they get to play yet another game in their home state (totally unfair--but that is another issue). This line should be higher than 5.5. Louisville is a good team, but on paper they can't compete with the Heels, especially in what is virtually a home game for the Heels.

That being said, this is Pitino's best team in awhile. No knock on Roy Williams, but Pitino is a better coach. Roy Williams sort of reminds me of Phil Jackson. A great coach no doubt--but made ALOT better by the fact that he had Jordan with the Bulls, and then Shaq and Kobe with the Lakers.

Again, not as strong as Memphis last night, but I like Louisville plus the 5.5 points tonight.

[cptkirk321]

Keith love you but this line should not be higher in fact this line should be lower. Heard an interview a few weeks back when the college basketball world had Louisville ranked in the 20's the Vegas linemakers actually had Louisville ranked in their top 7. They were further in front of the curve when it came to the Cards than the college basketball world was. We have a 1-3 seed and this line should of opened up around the -2 to -3.5 number especially with how much love the linemakers have for Louisville right now.

On the other side of you today, but at least this way one of us will still be happy come tonight, lol!! And more importantly the baseball season starts up tomorrow

[boiseboy]

i was hoping this would be the gut play, as the line seems a little low...and could not agree with you more about the roy williams, phil jackson comparison...

GOOD LUCK TODAY AND THANX KEITH!!!!!!!!!


boise...

[Bisket]

[Keith]

Originally Posted by cptkirk321

Keith love you but this line should not be higher in fact this line should be lower. Heard an interview a few weeks back when the college basketball world had Louisville ranked in the 20's the Vegas linemakers actually had Louisville ranked in their top 7. They were further in front of the curve when it came to the Cards than the college basketball world was. We have a 1-3 seed and this line should of opened up around the -2 to -3.5 number especially with how much love the linemakers have for Louisville right now.

On the other side of you today, but at least this way one of us will still be happy come tonight, lol!! And more importantly the baseball season starts up tomorrow

appreciate the love Kirk, but I think the right line here would have been 7 or 8. All the ESPN dweebs are falling all over themselves to give this thing to North Carolina. Hell, just look at the various office pools. Now I can only go by the ones I am in, but virtually everyone picked either NC or UCLA. I don't think you are factoring in the fact that this is basically a home game for the Heels. Not the Dean Dome, but same state. That alone is worth 3-4 points. So even if the Heels are only 3-4 points better, when you add in the home court advantage, it should be 7 or 8.

I just think Pitino is one of, if not THE best big game coach around (college or pro), and that he will have his team neutralize the Heels. The way to do that is not only with tight defense (of course) but with an ability to score. That is where Wash State got screwed. They played good "D", but couldn't get it going on the offensive end. The Heels will score. No doubt. The idea is you have to be able to score too in order to hang with them. Wash State couldn't. Louisville can. And in a close game, at the end, I think the team with the better coach (Pitino) pulls it out.

[pittviper]

good luck man keep the ball rolling.. i'll allow you to win this bet as long as North Carolina wins straight up..

North Carolina by 3? sounds good to me.. a lil Dr. Seuss for ya.. lol

BOL
PV

[Blues]

Ncar wins 73/69, you win, I win + over 130 and everyone's happy Keith man!!

LOL

Thanks and gl!

[Keith]

Originally Posted by Blues

Ncar wins 73/69, you win, I win + over 130 and everyone's happy Keith man!!

LOL

Thanks and gl!

works for me.

[cptkirk321]

Originally Posted by Keith

appreciate the love Kirk, but I think the right line here would have been 7 or 8. All the ESPN dweebs are falling all over themselves to give this thing to North Carolina. Hell, just look at the various office pools. Now I can only go by the ones I am in, but virtually everyone picked either NC or UCLA. I don't think you are factoring in the fact that this is basically a home game for the Heels. Not the Dean Dome, but same state. That alone is worth 3-4 points. So even if the Heels are only 3-4 points better, when you add in the home court advantage, it should be 7 or 8.

I just think Pitino is one of, if not THE best big game coach around (college or pro), and that he will have his team neutralize the Heels. The way to do that is not only with tight defense (of course) but with an ability to score. That is where Wash State got screwed. They played good "D", but couldn't get it going on the offensive end. The Heels will score. No doubt. The idea is you have to be able to score too in order to hang with them. Wash State couldn't. Louisville can. And in a close game, at the end, I think the team with the better coach (Pitino) pulls it out.

Playing in the same state is not worth 3 or 4 points if it was then Texas would of opened alot higher last night than -1.5 against Stanford. Not really interested in what peoples pools were because the majority of my friends that I have talked to didn't have Louisville even making it this far so that becomes a mute point to me but the big point to me is the ones who set these lines have thought alot more about Louisville for a long time before the rest of the college basketball world did and throughout this tournament the linemakers have been jacking up Louisvilles numbers because of how much they thought of the Cardinals. First round they were 13.5 pt faves, second round when all of the other 3-6 matchups were around the 2.5 mark Louisville was 7.5 against Oklahoma, on Thursday against the number 2 team in the bracket they were actually faved. Linemakers have alot more love for Louisville than most do and this line tells me they don't believe Louisville will cover.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by pittviper

good luck man keep the ball rolling.. i'll allow you to win this bet as long as North Carolina wins straight up..

North Carolina by 3? sounds good to me.. a lil Dr. Seuss for ya.. lol

BOL
PV

LMAO at the Seuss reference.

GL today pv.

[pittviper]

id be happy with that score as well

[Keith]

Originally Posted by cptkirk321

Playing in the same state is not worth 3 or 4 points if it was then Texas would of opened alot higher last night than -1.5 against Stanford. Not really interested in what peoples pools were because the majority of my friends that I have talked to didn't have Louisville even making it this far so that becomes a mute point to me but the big point to me is the ones who set these lines have thought alot more about Louisville for a long time before the rest of the college basketball world did and throughout this tournament the linemakers have been jacking up Louisvilles numbers because of how much they thought of the Cardinals. First round they were 13.5 pt faves, second round when all of the other 3-6 matchups were around the 2.5 mark Louisville was 7.5 against Oklahoma, on Thursday against the number 2 team in the bracket they were actually faved. Linemakers have alot more love for Louisville than most do and this line tells me they don't believe Louisville will cover.

fair enough. reasonable analysis, although I don't think you are giving enough credence to the fact that while the oddsmakers may be showing love for Lville, they are absolutely ga-ga head over Heels (LOL) for North Carolina.

One of us will be right. Good luck tonight man.

[TheBurg]

Nice write-up, Keeth. My book is at +6 (-105) now... pubby nailing the heels.

[bgrant909]

Keith, some food to fuel your gut feeling...

Rick Pitino is now 8-0 in the sweet 16 and is 5-2 in elite 8 games. He also has the 2nd highest winning percentage in the the tourney behind only Coach K. Also, didn't NoCar bow out in the Elite 8 last year, losing to Georgetown?

COACHING ADVANTAGE: Pitino and the Louisville Cardinals

[Seanie Mac]

louis is a nice solid team and padgette can handle hansbrough.....

sosa needs to stay out of foul trouble and they need a big game from caracter and t williams again.

they can def hang and pitino is an amazing coach. when brackets 1st came out i thought that kan and louis were the only teams that could stop UNC.