i'm actually taking northwestern tonight

[uncfelix]

well, my posts have sucked lately in the nba forum, but i am still making good coin and i'm gonna try to swerve a couple of you towards the wildcats tonight. northwestern is 0 for the big ten conference this year. they've got four chances to get the bagel off of their record, but in considering the competition they will play, one would think that they have just two chances, one of which being tonight. on the surface, it looks like the wolverines will take advantage of just another bad northwestern team. they did beat them handily earlier this year for sure, but looking closer at the game, northwestern, after getting pummeled early, went on an 18-0 second half run to make things mighty interesting. their best player, kevin coble was on his fourth game back from injury. well, the cats did get blown out early but at least made it a respectable game despite getting outrebounded by 20. that definitely will be an issue tonight, but i expect the wildcats to keep it a little closer on the boards because they know they have to.

the wildcats are a young team, with only one senior. their three best players are a soph, junior, and a freshman....with coble back they have gotten a little better as the year has progressed--just not good enough to get a win. breaking down their last several games, the wildcats have covered 7 out of the last 8 games played in the first half. they are still respectable ats for games as well (having won more than loss ats, especially on the road), but what this tells me is that this team is efforting to be better, but they just ain't...yet. well, in their last two games, northwestern has stayed around as late as they have been all year. in both games, they had a chance to win at the end. in my opinion, this team is young and hungry and ready to breakthrough with a conference win. i don't see them bouncing off these performances as much as realizing they can ball in this conference.

a couple other things to consider. for one, coble had his breakthrough game against michigan last time. he was 14-18 and 4-5 from three point land having scored 34 points. since then, he has gone off a couple of times, most recently against the hoosiers when he burned them for 37. this kid is a handful--he's 6'8 and shoots 43 % from three point land. now, some might say that he could go off as easily one game compared to the next and that might be true especially considering his youth, but i don't think his game against michigan was a fluke, here's why. of all the numbers i looked at while examining the wolverines defense, two numbers stood out. the wolverines are ranked around 30 in the nation in blocks per game. yet, interestingly enough, they are ranked 300 something in three point percentage defense. since most blocks are in the lane, i've got to think that the wolverines just don't handle too well out on the perimeter. now, out of all the teams in the big 10, guess who stays out on the perimeter the most--you guessed it, the wildcats (might explain in part some of their rebounding woes). the wildcats have made more three's this year than indiana and we all know the shooters the hoosiers have. anyway nw is around 30 nationally in three pointers made. and considering that they don't score all that much, the percentage of their points being from three point land is even higher.

okay, so a young hungry team who has been knocking at the door against a wolverine team that has also been playing well. i'm hoping for a little overconfidence here on michigan's part. at the very least i expect northwestern to roll them early with their very good three point shooters against a very bad perimeter defense.

since the numbers say northwestern is better covering at the half, i am including a half bet as well.

NW +4.5 (half)
NW +8.5
NW ML +320
NW/Mich over 129.5

gl to all

[Yankee23]

GL uncfelix

[uncfelix]

nw guard hits career best 8 three's including four in the first four minutes, up 16-2 to start, nw leads practically the entire game. easy cash tonight even with the over not working out, loving the ml cash.

hope some of you got on this with me.

[tw burke]

great call thanks