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  #351  
Old 03-24-2019, 05:04 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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PointsBet Sportsbook

"We've received a $10,000 bet on Texas Tech (-4) as they prepare to take on Buffalo"

Good size wager for this small New Jersey book
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  #352  
Old 03-24-2019, 05:49 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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UC Irvine/Oregon ... Right now this game is a mess. Flip a coin here because sharps and public are all over the place on this one.
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  #353  
Old 03-24-2019, 05:51 PM
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Highest public concentration total tonight ... UC Irvine/Oregon OVER 127. That's about the only thing the public agrees on in this game is the OVER.

Highest sharp concentration total tonight ... Oklahoma/Virginia UNDER 126.5
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  #354  
Old 03-24-2019, 06:54 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Mr. Poison almost knocked Duke out of the tournament

With his Duke loss for $105,000 he is now down $604,000 in only 4 days of tournament action

He just took the biggest public team left on the card ... He’s going with $173,000 to win $150,000 on Houston -6
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  #355  
Old 03-24-2019, 07:52 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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SuperBook

Some big house players on Oregon
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  #356  
Old 03-24-2019, 09:51 PM
springjk springjk is offline
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Poison about to cut that deficit by 25%. Buckeyes eat cock
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  #357  
Old 03-24-2019, 10:45 PM
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Even Mr. Poison has to win one every now and again

Was 0-5 going into his Houston bet ... Now 1-5 his last 6

For the tournament -$454,000 ... Sat/Sun -$265,000
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  #358  
Old 03-24-2019, 10:49 PM
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Caesars Palace

Updated National Title odds


Duke 3/1
Gonzaga 4/1
Virginia 5/1
North Carolina 5/1
Michigan State 10/1
Michigan 12/1
Kentucky 15/1
Tennessee 15/1
Purdue 20/1
Texas Tech 25/1
Houston 25/1
Auburn 25/1
Florida State 40/1
Virginia Tech 40/1
Oregon 60/1
LSU 75/1
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  #359  
Old 03-24-2019, 11:07 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Favorites won all 8 second-round games Sunday (16-0 SU in second round)

Faves 5-3 ATS Sunday ... 11-5 ATS for the round

Underdogs' overall 25-23 ATS

Unders 4-3-1 Sunday ... 8-7-1 in second round

Totals 23-23-2 overall
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  #360  
Old 03-25-2019, 02:22 PM
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Sports Insights Contributing Books


Current Thursday public spread ticket leans:

Tennessee -1 (63% Vols)
Virginia -8.5 (63% Ducks)
Gonzaga -7.5 (56% FSU)
Michigan -2 (56% Mich)


Friday ...

Michigan St. -6 (54% Sparty)
Duke -7.5 (62% VT)
Kentucky -2.5 (52% 'Cats)
North Carolina -5 (UNC 60%)
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  #361  
Old 03-25-2019, 03:54 PM
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BetOnline

Early Sweet 16 action report

(bet count)

71% on Tennessee -1 v Purdue
56% on Oregon +8.5 v UVA
74% on FSU +7.5 v Zags
55% on Michigan -2 v Texas Tech
59% on Michigan St -6 v LSU
78% on VA Tech +7 v Duke
51% on Houston +2.5 v Kentucky
65% on UNC -4.5 v Auburn
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  #362  
Old 03-25-2019, 04:37 PM
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Random trends ...


20 previous 1 seeds which failed to cover in both R64 and R32 wins ... 9-8-3 ATS ... 14-6 SU in Sweet 16


There have been 5 Sweet 16 games where a 2 seed has been favored between 5 and 9 points over a 3 seed. 2 seeds are 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS in those 5. Only cover was 1996 G'Town which was -7 vs TT and won by 8 ... Mich St currently -6 vs LSU


1 seeds are 19-0 in Sweet 16 vs 12 seeds. Only 1 game was decided by less than 7 points (90 UNLV/Ball St). Last 12, 9-3 ATS, avg MOV 16.8, all won by at least 8 pts ... UVA currently -8 vs Oregon


2+3 seeds in Sweet 16, didn't cover in R64 and 32 wins, last 10 years

2017 Kentucky ... (+1.5 UCLA) ... W by 11
2016 Oklahoma ... (-2.5 A&M) ... W by 14
2015 Notre Dame ... (+2 Wichita St) ... W by 11
2011 UNC ... (-4.5 Marquette) ... W by 18

Applies to LSU and Tennessee
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  #363  
Old 03-25-2019, 05:28 PM
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Updated Champion via Action Network Bracket Simulator

Duke 28%
UVA 15.8%
Zags 13.4%
Kentucky 9.9%
UNC 9%
MSU 7.2%
Michigan 4.4%
Tenn 4.4%
Purdue 3%
Texas Tech 2.6%
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  #364  
Old 03-26-2019, 02:18 PM
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The over/under for Friday’s NCAA Tournament matchup between Auburn and North Carolina opened at 160, which was already the highest total of the Sweet 16.

The Tar Heels and Tigers rank eighth and sixth, respectively, in KenPom’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency metric, so it’s not surprising to see oddsmakers set such a lofty over/under.

Despite the high number, bettors have not been scared about hitting the over, either. At the time of writing, 61% of bets are on the over, but an incredible 92% of all dollars wagered on the total are also on that side at Sports Insights Contributing Books

In response, the over/under has shot to 164 at the Westgate SuperBook in Vegas, as of Tuesday afternoon.

While the money splits — and line movement — support overwhelming action coming in on the over, there have been a couple of instances in which sharps bought back the under, according to Sports Insights’ Bet Signals.

However, those blips of professional under action have done nothing to flow the tide of money on the over, especially considering the over has triggered three Bet Signals of its own.

According to Bet Labs data (which dates back to the 2005 NCAA Tournament), the 2017 matchup between Kentucky and UCLA is the only Sweet 16 game with an over/under of at least 164. That game finished with 161 points scored, falling under the closing total of 167.
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  #365  
Old 03-26-2019, 05:32 PM
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Updated early betting trends from Will Hill's 100+ Books in Nevada / Jersey and West Virginia



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  #366  
Old 03-26-2019, 06:01 PM
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More Random Trends ...


John Calipari's teams are 9-1 ATS in the Sweet 16 as a 1 or 2 seed


Leonard Hamilton's teams are 7-1 ATS with 5 outright wins as an underdog in the NCAA Tournament


One seeds are 12-2-1 ATS and 14-1 SU in the Sweet 16 since 2014. The only one seed to lose in that span was Virginia to Michigan State, and UVA was actually an underdog in the game


Rick Barnes teams are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games


Tennessee is the 4th two seed to win each of its first two NCAA Tournament games by single digits. Each of the previous three - 1995 Arkansas, 2005 Kentucky and 2017 Kentucky - all won their Sweet 16 game


John Beilein has coached in 16 NCAA Tournament games where his team was favored by less than 4 points or was an underdog of less than 4 points. His teams have won 12 of those 16 games, including last years 27-point win over Texas A&M in the Sweet 16.


Bruce Pearl's teams have been an underdog in 7 NCAA Tournament games. In those 7 games, they have 3 outright wins and 2 other 1-point losses (5-2 ATS)


Matt Painter is 0-7 vs Top 3 seeds, including losses by 13 and 32 in the Sweet 16 the last two years


At Oregon, Dana Altman is 14-4 ATS and in games the Ducks aren't favored, he's 9-1 ATS with 6 outright wins (includes one pick 'em).
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  #367  
Old 03-27-2019, 02:06 PM
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The Greek Sportsbook

Early Sweet 16 Sharp Action

ORE / VA over
Gonzaga
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  #368  
Old 03-27-2019, 02:15 PM
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Biggest rebounding margin discrepancies in the Sweet 16:

Carolina +10.6 ... Auburn -1.8
Michigan St +9.5 ... LSU +4.8
Virginia +5.3 ... Oregon +1.6
Purdue +5.6 ... Tennessee +3.4
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  #369  
Old 03-27-2019, 02:44 PM
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Last 2 years in Sweet 16 ... favorites 8-7 SU ... 4-10-1 ATS

Note: 15 games, 1 was a pickem
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  #370  
Old 03-27-2019, 04:28 PM
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BetOnline

Updated Sweet 16

(bet count)

77% on FSU +7.5 v Zags
72% on Tennessee -1 v Purdue
50% on Texas Tech +2 v Michigan
68% on Oregon +9 v Virginia
51% on Michigan St -6 v LSU
71% on UNC -5 v Auburn
72% on VA Tech +7 v Duke
50% on Kentucky -2.5 v Houston
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  #371  
Old 03-27-2019, 06:33 PM
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In NCAA Tournament games with high total (140 or more points) the under has gone 76-58-1 (57%) when the over/under decreases since 2005.

Zags-FSU: opened 148 ... now 146.5
MSU-LSU: opened opened 149 ... now 148
Duke-VaTech: opened 145 ... now 144.5
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  #372  
Old 03-27-2019, 07:17 PM
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Dogs off ATS win of 20+ (FSU & Purdue)

Since 2006 ... 24-94 SU (20%) ... 52-64-2 ATS (45%)

Past 5 seasons ... 12-55 SU (18%) ... 26-39-2 ATS (40%)
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  #373  
Old 03-27-2019, 07:18 PM
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Neutral site favorites off neutral site ATS win (Michigan, UVA)

Since 2006 ... 509-211 SU (71%) ... 368-337-15 ATS (52%)

Past 5 seasons ... 266-111 SU (71%) ... 190-177-10 ATS (52%)
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  #374  
Old 03-28-2019, 08:48 AM
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Play PURDUE OVER using O/U Totals in All games in all neutral court games.
The record is 21 Wins and 3 Losses for the last 3 seasons.
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  #375  
Old 03-28-2019, 09:05 AM
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OREGON is 28-9 UNDER the First Half total in all games this season.
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