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  #26  
Old 03-17-2019, 07:57 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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First Round Upset Statistics


No. 10 upsets No. 7 = 38.2%
No. 11 upsets No. 6 = 37.5%
No. 12 upsets No. 5 = 34.6%
No. 13 upsets No. 4 = 20.1%
No. 14 upsets No. 3 = 15.4%
No. 15 upsets No. 2 = 5.9%


Stats since 1985
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  #27  
Old 03-17-2019, 07:59 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Caesars Palace Books ...

Biggest NIT liabilites to win Tourney

Providence (by a mile)
Furman
Toledo
Davidson
Butler
Georgetown
Xavier
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  #28  
Old 03-17-2019, 08:01 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Each of the last 8 years there has been a team seeded 7th or worse in the Elite 8. Last year there were 3 – K St, FSU and Loyola. Also been a team seeded 7th or lower in the Final Four each of the last 6 years. And since 2011, 9 teams seeded 7th or worse reached Final Four
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  #29  
Old 03-17-2019, 08:03 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Excluding First Four games, Big Ten double digit seeds are 9-20 in the NCAA Tournament
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  #30  
Old 03-17-2019, 08:03 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Since Florida’s repeat in 2007, no defending champion has gotten past the Sweet 16. Last year, North Carolina lost in the 2nd round, despite being a No. 2 seed. The year before that, Villanova was the No. 1 overall seed and couldn’t get past the 2nd round.
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  #31  
Old 03-17-2019, 08:05 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Be on the lookout for No. 2 seeds who’ve won six or fewer of their last 10 games. There have been 13 instances of this since 1997, and a whopping NINE of them have lost in the second round

Both Michigan and Tennessee are 6-4 in its last 10 games.
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  #32  
Old 03-17-2019, 08:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
Since 2008 (excluding First Four), there have been 38 tournament games between teams that already played each other that season.

Winners of the first matchups are 24-11 (.686) in rematch.


24-11 does not add up to 38.
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  #33  
Old 03-17-2019, 08:57 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Trend came from Sportsline ... I caught it after I posted but not quick enough to delete it

I questioned them a couple hours ago and just like every other sports account posting info, they ignore the question when caught sharing faulty info.

Most of the stuff I'm posting in here is just filler until real info becomes available closer to game day

I am fully aware info dating back a season or 2 is basically worthless ... As most trends ... I have a group of guys that ask for it, so I share
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  #34  
Old 03-17-2019, 08:59 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Currently at William Hill Books .... Duke (+200) has highest percentage of tickets (10%) and money (22%) to win the Tournament
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  #35  
Old 03-17-2019, 09:05 PM
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PointsBet Sportsbook in Jersey

Was offering Duke +300 to win the national title while the market is entrenched in the +200 range

"We just got hit at +300 by pretty much every sharp account on our books. Had to move to +250. Massive Duke liability opened up in a matter of minutes."
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  #36  
Old 03-17-2019, 09:22 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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I did the research myself slabshack ... It's 35 not 38 ...

In 35 instances, the winners of the first matchups are 24-11 (.686) in the rematch.
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  #37  
Old 03-17-2019, 09:34 PM
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MGM Race and Sports

Odds to win NCAA Championship

Duke 2-1
Gonzaga 6-1
N Carolina 6-1
Virginia 6-1
Kentucky 10-1
Mich St 10-1
Tennessee 10-1
Michigan 18-1
Texas Tech 18-1
Fla St 30-1
Purdue 30-1
Houston 30-1
Iowa St 30-1
LSU 30-1
Villanova 50-1
Auburn 50-1
Kansas 50-1
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  #38  
Old 03-18-2019, 02:11 PM
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18 of the past 22 first-round games involving CAA teams have ended in victory or a single-digit loss (14 by five points or less).


Since 2012, there have been 5 4-seeds favored by 6 points or fewer over a 13-seed. Those 5 went 1-4 ATS and lost 3 outright, including Bruce Weber's 2013 K-State team, which lost to La Salle as a 6-point favorite.


In last 10 years, there have been 6 AQs from P5 confs that were dbl-digt seeds. Those 6 went 5-1 in R64, incl Oregon which reached the Sweet 16 as a 12-seed in 2013. Interestingly, 4 of the 6 were Pac-12 AQs. All 4 won their R64 game. Washington also reached the Sweet 16 in 2010.


The underdog is 14-1 ATS with 11 outright wins in Florida State’s last 15 NCAA Tournament games. And in Leonard Hamilton's 15 NCAA Tourney games as head coach, the underdog is 15-4 ATS with 11 outright wins. He’s 3-8 ATS with 6 SU losses as a favorite.


In 23 NCAA trips, Rick Barnes has made it past the Sweet 16 3 times – 2003, 2006, 2008 – but those are the only 3 times Barnes’ teams have previously been a top two seed. Barnes teams are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 NCAA tourney games.


This is the first time since 2013 Villanova is lower than a 5-seed. Under Jay Wright, the Cats have been lower than a 5-seed four previous times. Villanova lost in the first round three of those four times.


New Mexico State always seem to be a trendy first round upset pick, but that hasn’t worked out too well lately. Since moving to the WAC, New Mexico State is 0-8 in its first round game, losing by 12.5 PPG and going just 2-6 ATS, each coming as an underdog.


John Calipari’s teams are 3-8 ATS (11-0 SU) in the 1st Round as a 1 or 2 seed.


In the last 5 years, we've averaged 7 underdogs winning outright per year in the first round. 14 of the 35 dogs to win outright in the last 5 years were greater than 5 points.round


Baylor under Scott Drew
vs single-digit seeds: 1-5, margin of defeat 13.4 PPG
vs double-digit seeds: 9-2, +9.2 scoring margin


At least one No. 11 seed has reached the Sweet 16 in each of the past five tournaments. 11 seeds have won 8 of 12 games vs six seeds the last three years.
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  #39  
Old 03-18-2019, 05:35 PM
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BetOnline

"As of today, we have liability on just one team to win-it-all. That team is Virginia, currently +550"
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  #40  
Old 03-18-2019, 05:47 PM
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MGM's biggest liability from futures tickets comes from No. 1 seed Virginia
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  #41  
Old 03-18-2019, 06:36 PM
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The SuperBook at Westgate


SOUTH REGION

No. 12 Oregon vs. No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers (-1.5)

“This opened at Wisconsin -1.5, and it’s already at Oregon -1. We debated on who to favor in this game, just because we weren’t sure which way the public would sway. We’ve already taken some sharp action on Oregon and the line has moved pretty dramatically. We think it’ll get up to around Oregon -2 or -2.5 by game day.”


No. 14 Old Dominion Monarchs vs. No. 3 Purdue Boilermakers (-12)

“The market has moved this line up to -12.5, but we are not sold on it. We think we’re going to get some late sharp money on Old Dominion once that line moves a little higher. Old Dominion has impressed us this season, and we think 12 is too many points for the Monarchs to get.”


No. 10 Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. No. 7 Louisville Cardinals (-4.5)I

“A lot of Minnesota haters in this back room,” Wilkinson said of the gang of four – led by sportsbook manager Ed Salmons – who set the opening lines at The SuperBook. “The sharp money is on Louisville for sure. We’ve already taken some limit bets on the Cardinals, from both wiseguys and house players. We're anticipating this line to go up over the next couple of days.”


No. 14 Yale Bulldogs vs. No. 3 Louisiana State Tigers (-8)

LSU opened -8 at The SuperBook, but Yale money knocked the number down a tick to 7.5 for a 12:40 p.m. ET Thursday contest.

“We’ve seen some smaller, sharp bets on Yale,” Wilkinson said. “No big bets yet, but I think this line is going to drop some more. I wouldn’t be surprised if Yale wins outright. The public will be on LSU, just because it’s a big name, but the smart money is on Yale in this one.”


MIDWEST REGION

No. 11 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 6 Iowa State Cyclones (-6)

“We’ve taken some house money on Iowa State, but we are looking for the upset in this one,” Wilkinson said, while noting the line remains on the opener of Cyclones -6. “We think we’ll get some sharp money on Ohio State soon, and that line will come down some.”


No. 12 New Mexico State Aggies vs. No. 5 Auburn Tigers (-7.5)

“We’ve taken a few smaller sharp plays on New Mexico State, and the line has dropped a little,” Wilkinson said of a shift from Auburn -7.5 to -7. “I think the public action will be pretty evenly split on these two, but the sharps will like New Mexico State. Personally, I like Auburn, but then again, my Twitter handle is @derek2square for a reason.”


No. 10 Florida Gators vs. No. 7 Nevada Wolf Pack (-2.5)

“We’ve already taken some sharp action on Florida,” Wilkinson said. “The line hasn’t moved, just because we know we always get a lot of local money on Nevada. Personally, I think the Gators are going to win this game, and I imagine that line will drop a little, despite getting public money on Nevada.”


No. 15 Montana Grizzlies vs. No. 2 Michigan Wolverines (-15.5)

“Although I’m confident Michigan is going to win, 16 is a lot of points,” Wilkinson said. “We took a sharp bet on Montana earlier, but I think that’s just because the spread is so high. I’d look for this line to drop a little more and maybe settle around 14 or 14.5.”
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  #42  
Old 03-18-2019, 06:45 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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SuperBook ...


FIRST FOUR

Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Prairie View A&M – Open: Pick; Move: +1; Move: +1.5

Belmont vs. Temple – Open: +3.5; Move: None

Arizona State vs. St. John’s – Open: +1; Move: None

North Carolina Central vs. North Dakota State – Open: -5.5; Move: None


FIRST ROUND

St. Mary’s vs. Villanova – Open: -5.5; Move: -5; Move: -5.5

Murray State vs. Marquette – Open: -4; Move: -4.5

Vermont vs. Florida State – Open: -11; Move: -10.5; Move: -11; Move: -10.5

Seton Hall vs. Wofford – Open: -3; Move: None

Abilene Christian vs. Kentucky – Open: -22; Move: -22.5; Move: -22; Move: -21.5; Move: -22

Bradley vs. Michigan State – Open: -19.5; Move: -19; Move: -18.5; Move: -18

Northeastern vs. Kansas – Open: -8.5; Move: -8; Move: -8.5; Move: -8

Baylor vs. Syracuse – Open: -2; Move: None

Central Florida vs. Virginia Commonwealth – Open: -1; Move: -1.5

Gardner-Webb vs. Virginia – Open: -24; Move: -23.5

Oklahoma vs. Mississippi – Open: -2; Move: None

Iowa vs. Cincinnati – Open: -4; Move: -3.5

Colgate vs. Tennessee – Open: -17.5; Move: None

Iona vs. North Carolina – Open: -25; Move: -24

Washington vs. Utah State – Open: -3; Move: -3.5; Move: -3; Move: -2.5

Georgia State vs. Houston – Open: -12; Move: None

Northern Kentucky vs. Texas Tech – Open: -15; Move: -14.5; Move: -14

Liberty vs. Mississippi State – Open: -7.5; Move: -7

St. Louis vs. Virginia Tech – Open: -10.5; Move: -10; Move: -9.5

California-Irvine vs. Kansas State – Open: -5.5; Move: None
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  #43  
Old 03-18-2019, 07:04 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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10 Best Teams Against the Spread in the Tournament

UNC: 22-9-1 (3rd-best in country)
Michigan State: 22-10 (4th)
Virginia: 21-9 (5th)
Ole Miss: 20-9
VCU: 20-10
Murray State: 18-9
Oklahoma: 19-10-2
UC Irvine: 20-11-1
Michigan: 19-11
Houston: 17-10



10 Worst ...

Northern Kentucky: 11-19-1 (9th-worst in nation)
Old Dominion: 12-19-1
Cincinnati: 12-18-1
Florida: 13-18-1
Iowa: 12-17
Iona: 13-17
Montana: 14-18
Ohio State: 14-16
Wisconsin: 13-15-1
Kansas: 15-16-1
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  #44  
Old 03-18-2019, 07:17 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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FanDuel has taken a $25,000 bet on Virginia to win the Tournament ... Will pay $212,000 if they win.
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  #45  
Old 03-18-2019, 08:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SharpTORONTO View Post
On first look, I really like Cincy -1.5.
That line smells like absolute poopoo. Why is Cincy barely favored? Iowa is probably a top 10 cold team right now.
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  #46  
Old 03-18-2019, 08:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
Should see a ton of Oregon love upcoming

Classic 12-5 matchup, great ATS run, etc.

Since 2005, a 12-seed has beat a 5-seed in all but two tournaments - 2007 and 2015
I believe all the 12s got destroyed last year if I’m not mistaken. I might be wrong but I was thinking last year was 0-4.
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  #47  
Old 03-18-2019, 08:39 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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I believe you are correct
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  #48  
Old 03-18-2019, 08:41 PM
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  #49  
Old 03-19-2019, 01:41 PM
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The public loves backing dogs in the tourney ... top 3 most bets on round 1 games have been on the following teams at CG Technology ...

1. UC Irvine
2. Yale
3. Oregon
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  #50  
Old 03-19-2019, 03:03 PM
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^^

At CG Technology ... currently have taken Zero bets on LSU so far
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