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  #51  
Old 03-19-2019, 04:18 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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BetOnline

Sharp action on Temple +3.5 tonight
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  #52  
Old 03-19-2019, 04:18 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Golden Nugget seeing a lot of bets on Belmont -3

"Belmont is a public favorite. Their ticket count is 3 to 1 over Temple tonight. They're a Cinderella that people love."

Last edited by New York Knight; 03-19-2019 at 04:21 PM.
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  #53  
Old 03-19-2019, 04:24 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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PointsBet Sportsbook in Jersey has gone back to +300 on Duke to win the national title ... Others are in range of +200 to +240
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  #54  
Old 03-19-2019, 05:08 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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A “Known” bettor within the last 30 minutes took a total position of $51,000 on Prairie View +2.5 / +2 / +1.5
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  #55  
Old 03-19-2019, 05:17 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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CG Technology

54% of pointspread tickets are on FDU ... 68% of money is on Prairie View

Ticket count 62% Belmont ... money 58% Belmont
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  #56  
Old 03-19-2019, 05:31 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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SuperBook ... on FDU-PVAM

"Most of the money has come in on FDU. We have straight bet and parlay liability on FDU."

"Most of the sharp money has come in on the Under. We went from 150 to 148.5, and it's almost all sharp money."
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  #57  
Old 03-19-2019, 05:46 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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SuperBook ... on BEL-TEM

"We've actually seen good two-way on this game. Temple support at +3.5, and Belmont coming in at -2.5."

"Lot of small bets, but this game getting a lot more interest than the early game"
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  #58  
Old 03-19-2019, 06:05 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Market update

Sharps hit Temple early and now sharps are buying back on Belmont
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  #59  
Old 03-19-2019, 09:12 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Notable bets at Caesars Palace ...

$5,000 on Purdue to win it all at 30/1
$2,000 on New Mexico State to win Midwest Region at 100/1
$3,000 on Wisconsin to win South Region at 30/1
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  #60  
Old 03-19-2019, 09:53 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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PointsBet Sportsbook

"We have received mid-four-figure bets on Vermont (+9) vs. Florida St and Murray St (+4) vs. Marquette"
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  #61  
Old 03-19-2019, 10:31 PM
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Favorites 2-0 ATS

Over/Under splits 1-1
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  #62  
Old 03-20-2019, 11:25 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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A few of the bigger futures bets at CG Technology ...


$1,000 on Virginia at 17-1
$2,000 on Michigan at 10-1
$500 on Purdue at 80-1
$500 on Texas Tech at 75-1
$500 on Va. Tech at 50-1
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  #63  
Old 03-20-2019, 11:28 AM
wayne1218 wayne1218 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
Notable bets at Caesars Palace ...

$5,000 on Purdue to win it all at 30/1
$2,000 on New Mexico State to win Midwest Region at 100/1
$3,000 on Wisconsin to win South Region at 30/1
What a waste of cash!
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  #64  
Old 03-20-2019, 11:29 AM
wayne1218 wayne1218 is offline
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a #12 seed has beaten a #5 seed in 29 of 34 tourneys since the field expanded
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  #65  
Old 03-20-2019, 11:31 AM
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11 straight years a DD Seed has reached sweet 16
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  #66  
Old 03-20-2019, 11:32 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Last two years of the tournament:


2017

Pts per game tourney avg: 148.0
OVER/UNDER: 35-26-2


2018

Pts per game tourney avg: 142.5
OVER/UNDER: 29-34
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  #67  
Old 03-20-2019, 11:33 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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2017 underdogs ATS: 32-27-5

2018 underdogs ATS: 34-28-1
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  #68  
Old 03-20-2019, 11:42 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Maybe picking some of the trendy underdogs in your bracket is a wise move, depending on what type of pool you’re in, of course. But when it comes to betting, you’re going to want to fade the trendy dogs.

According to Bet Labs, we see that underdogs getting the majority of spread bets have covered just 44.3% of the time in the NCAA Tournament.

And when we focus on the early rounds, they’ve done even worse. Trendy dogs in First Four, Round of 64 and Round of 32 have covered just 41.8% of the time.

Which dogs are trendier than Snoop this year? Here’s the current list, with percentages from Sports Insights ...


#13 Cal Irvine: 72% on +4.5 vs. Kansas State
#12 Liberty: 71% on +6.5 vs. Mississippi State
#13 Vermont: 71% on +10 vs. Florida State
#13 Northeastern: 70% on +7 vs. Kansas
#12 Murray State: 65% on +4 vs. Marquette
#10 Seton Hall: 62% on +2.5 vs. Wofford
#12 New Mexico State: 60% on +6 vs. Auburn
#12 Oregon: 59% on +1.5 vs. Wisconsin
#15 Bradley: 56% on +18.5 vs. Michigan State
#11 Saint Mary’s CA: 54% on +5 vs. Villanova
#15 Montana: 53% on +15.5 vs. Michigan


Are there some trendy dogs that perform better or worse than others?

Here’s what we found for all rounds of the tournament:


Additional Trendy Dog … Trends

13-16 seeds: 16-33 against the spread (ATS)

Higher-seeded underdogs: 13-15 ATS

Double-digit dogs: 20-18 ATS (surprising considering how poorly 13-16 seeds have done)

When the line has moved in their favor: 28-39-1 ATS

8-seeds or higher that have reached at least the Sweet 16: 8-7-1 ATS
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  #69  
Old 03-20-2019, 11:58 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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1H O/U was 11-21 in the Round of 64 last year
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  #70  
Old 03-20-2019, 12:02 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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CG Technology ...

Top 3 most bet teams

Yale
Villanova
Syracuse
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  #71  
Old 03-20-2019, 12:09 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Since 2005, the underdog in the 8/9 game has gone 32-21-3 (60.4%) ATS.
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  #72  
Old 03-20-2019, 12:13 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Since 2005, 1-seeds are 29-26-1 against the spread (ATS) in the Round of 64 according to Bet Labs.

However, when the 1-seed sees the line move against it by at least one or more points, it has been profitable going 14-5-1 ATS. North Carolina, 1-seed in the Midwest, opened as a 24.5-point favorite against Iona and has been bet down to a 23.5-point favorite (Friday, 9:20 p.m. ET, TNT).


Since 2005, 2-seeds are 25-28-3 ATS when playing 15-seeds. Last year, the 2-seeds went 3-1 ATS. That was only the second time these teams had a winning ATS record in the opening round in Bet Labs database.


The 3-seeds are 48-8 SU in the Bet Labs database vs. 14-seeds. In the past two tournaments the 3-seeds won each contest, but in the previous four Big Dances at least one 14-seed had upset a 3-seed in the first round.

LSU is the only 3-seed not to be favored by double-digits. The Tigers opened as 8-point favorites and have been bet down to -7 vs. Yale (Thursday, 12:40 p.m. ET, TRUTV). Since 2005, 3-seeds favored by fewer than 10 points against 14-seeds have gone 18-3 SU and 12-9 ATS.


The 2018 NCAA tournament was rough for 4-seeds. Arizona and Wichita State lost outright while Gonzaga and Auburn squeaked out four-point victories. No 4-seed covered last March.

At least one 4-seed has lost outright in 10 of the past 14 tournament. Bettors wagering on 4-seeds are 28-27-1 ATS since 2005 and 7-12-1 ATS in the past five seasons.
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  #73  
Old 03-20-2019, 12:39 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Bookmaker ...

$$


New Mexico State (78.3%) vs. Auburn -5.5 (21.7%)

Northeastern (79.5%) vs. Kansas -6.5 (20.5%)

Fairleigh Dickinson (10.4%) vs. Gonzaga -26.5 (89.6%) ... but this game just went up

Baylor (22.6%) vs. Syracuse -2 (77.4%)

Minnesota (53.9%) vs. Louisville -5 (46.1%)

Bradley (68.3%) vs. Michigan State -18 (31.7%)

Florida (62.6%) vs. Nevada -1.5 (37.4%)

Montana (70.8%) vs. Michigan -16 (29.2%)

Belmont (35.5%) vs. Maryland -4 (64.5%)

Yale (62.6%) vs. LSU -8 (37.4%)

Seton Hall (64.2%) vs. Wofford -2.5 (35.8%)

Abilene Christian (45.4%) vs. Kentucky -22.5 (54.6%)

Saint Marys (54.4%) vs. Villanova -5.5 (45.6%)

Old Dominon (56.3%) vs. Purdue -13 (43.7)

Murray State (74.7%) vs. Marquette -4.5 (25.6%)

Vermont (76.9%) vs. Florida State -10.5 (23.1%)
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  #74  
Old 03-20-2019, 02:05 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Highest-scoring team: Zags 88.8 ppg

Lowest-scoring team: K-State 65.8 ppg

Fastest team: UNC 74.3 poss. per game

Slowest team: UVA 59.3 poss. per game

Best FT%: Ole Miss 78.3%

Worst FT%: SLU 59.8%

Best 3 pt %: Wofford 41.6%

Worst 3 pt %: Duke 30.2%
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  #75  
Old 03-20-2019, 03:15 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Teams that didnt make conference tourney championship game are on first round slide of 18-36 ATS (33%) vs conference champs

On notice ... Miss St, V-Tech, LSU, Marquette, Texas Tech, Virginia, Wisconsin, K-State, Purdue, Iowa, UNC, Ohio St, Kentucky
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