March Madness.... Nice writeup'''

[WAXER]

Keys to NCAA Tournament Success
Fairway Jay

As action continues in the college conference tournaments (CCT’s) and teams battle for an NCAA Tournament berth, I thought I’d review some of ‘Fairways Fundamentals’ in breaking down the games. While there have been changes in the college game over the years with the shot clock and ‘3-point’ line, the fundamentals of college basketball remain the same when evaluating the match-ups. I have relied on the fundamentals and match-ups along with situations, scheduling, coaching, intangibles, a touch of technical analysis and of course energy and emotion to produce a 72-48 (60%) ATS mark the past three postseasons in college basketball - all documented at the Sports Monitor of Oklahoma City. And if you’re looking to take a ‘whack’ with just the top-rated ‘Big Drive’ plays, you’ll want to get on my ‘bag’ again for all the NCAA Tournament, NIT and College Conference Tournament (CCT’s) action. Over the past three college basketball postseasons, I’ve produced enormous ‘green’ on those ‘Big Drive’ selections. Fairway’s Faithful Followers have ‘beaten’ the Bookmaker and built a ‘bulging’ bankroll as I’ve gone 19-4 ATS on those top-rated ‘Big Drive’, double-unit plays.

In an elimination format of the NCAA Tournament and any postseason game, one poor stretch of play or a scoring drought can end a team’s season. Likewise, a team that gets hot from the 3-point arch can ride that momentum to a victory. Evaluating how a team and players will perform under pressure in an elimination format can be a challenge. The difficulty for many handicappers and bettors is breaking down the match-ups with less familiar teams. Evaluating the statistical information, interpreting the data and evaluating how teams and players will perform when facing a different level of class opponent often keeps bettor away from unknown teams. That’s where the intangibles of coaching, momentum, injuries, senior leadership and team chemistry play a part. The technical side of the equation comes in evaluating situations and past performance such as a team’s strength of schedule, performance playing on the road, results and level of play versus quality teams and understanding contrary patterns. Of course, once you think you have a good match-up and situation, you have to evaluate the point spread and beat the Bookmaker!

We can discuss quality guard play, interior post presence, 3-point and free- throw shooting, pace of play and a go-to-guy in any match-up. But in so many contests, the team that defends the best, rebounds and takes care of the basketball can often overcome the opponent or their own off-shooting night. So here are some of the fundamentals to evaluate in upcoming games.

Defense: While scoring continues to get headlines and highlights, teams that play defense and minimize second chance opportunities will win more games. Coaching often plays a part in a team’s discipline on defense, and teams that play hard on the defensive end are worth supporting. The type of defense a team plays may vary from game to game with man-to-man, zone or full court pressure. Teams that have athletes and flexibility to adjust are your best bets. After a full season of results, the overall body of work and numbers should tell the story. Key stats to analyze are defensive field goal percentage and turnovers forced, with overall points-per-game allowed also of note, especially versus quality teams. Look at a team’s offensive tempo, and if a team has an efficient offense with a relatively high number of attempts and still plays solid defense, you likely have a team worth plenty of support.

Offense: With the top teams playing in the NCAA Tournament, many teams are capable on the defensive end of shutting down one scoring option. Look for teams with scoring balance, both from the perimeter and inside. Quality depth can be a factor, but teams will rely on their top players at crunch time. Recognize a team’s turnover-to-assist ratio. The ability to play in the half court with an efficient offense and balanced scoring options will separate teams, especially in the second half as some teams start to wear down. Thus, unselfish teams that value and take care of the basketball and give their teammates good looks will ultimately win out with productive shooting.


Rebounding: One of the most overlooked areas in handicapping is evaluating a team’s ability to rebound the basketball. The key here is rebounding margin, which goes together with a team’s defensive field goal percentage. Teams that are physical, strong and athletic on the boards also create more fouls on the opponent and get to the free throw line more often. The top teams will always be strong in these areas, and the ability to control the boards and minimize second-chance points will go a long way in determining whether a team advances or not.

Free Throw Shooting: The ability to make foul shots can not only be the difference in a close contest, but often determines whether you win or lose your wager in the closing minutes. Yet, this statistic is probably one of the most misleading stats in college basketball. Here are some of the top team’s free throw percentages this season: UCLA (74%), Stanford (69), Duke (69), North Carolina (76), Kansas (70), Texas (68), Georgetown (67), Louisville (66), Connecticut (71), Notre Dame (74), Marquette (70) Tennessee (65), Vanderbilt (73), Wisconsin (70), Purdue (70), Indiana (76), Memphis (59), Xavier (75), Butler (74), BYU (65) and Drake (75). The teams in italics have actually shot a slightly higher percentage from the free throw line in conference play. Note how poorly Memphis shoots from the free throw line. Only UCLA, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Vanderbilt, Indiana, Xavier and Butler are at least above average from the charity stripe this season. Until they come up with a statistic that reflects a team’s free throw shooting percentage in the closing minutes of a game, I would say less consideration should be given to this statistical category.

3-Point Shooting: Nothing has changed the face of college basketball more than the ‘three-pointer’. The average number of 3-point shots made is nearly seven (7) per game with approximately 35% efficiency. Handicapping the 3-point shot and evaluating a team’s performance in this area is one of the most difficult when breaking down a match-up. Teams can have a significant variance in performance from the arch on any given night. Thus, focusing on the defensive part of the equation and teams that are more active on the defensive end with a priority in defending the perimeter should be your main focus as well.