MasterCapper's Wednesday

MasterCapper · #1 02-11-2009, 09:59 AM

Hit the outright win yesterday on Central Michigan (+7) over Miami (OH), and today I've got two plays:

Kansas State/Texas Tech over 152

I know K-State very well, and they are a team that I follow and cap regularly. Quite honestly, this might not be a bad spot to take Tech (+13), and I say that for two reasons: (1) since the inception of the Big 12, they have owned the series, going 9-4 against K-State; (2) K-State has won five straight and will be looking ahead to rival Kansas, who they play on Saturday on ABC. So yeah, Tech might not be a bad play.

Still, I'm going to go with the over 152 on this game, simply because I anticipate that K-State will be able to get out and run against a Tech team that flat doesn't defend. The over has hit in four of Tech's last five games. K-State is starting to find its groove offensively with the emergence of Denis Clemente. With a big game on tap Saturday, I expect K-State to rest up a little -- but not entirely -- on the defensive end.

UNC Wilmington (+8.5) over William & Mary

I'll be the first to admit that William scares me, but I really think Wilmington can expose Mary and keep this one close -- if not win outright. William is obviously very strong around the glass and has a decent mid-range jump shot. But Mary? Clearly she's been in a slump and hasn't been much of a presence inside.

OK, I really like this game, and for two reasons:

1. I'm not convinced William & Mary is the better team, and therefore I think eight points is way too many to be giving Wilmington.

2. Wilmington, after a brutal start, has improved.

Wilmington is similar to my pick last night, Central Michigan. Wilmington hasn't really seen the results in the win column, but they've played more competitively as of late. How competitive? They beat Towson 103-98 in OT, lost narrowly at 8-6 Hofstra (two points), lost by six to 8-5 James Madison, and then beat second-place Virginia Commonwealth at home by 8! They just went on the road to first-place Northeastern, the class of the conference, and held strong ... losing by just 12 points and easily covering the spread.

William & Mary, meanwhile, has lost 8 of 9 and aren't playing very good basketball right now. They've lost to some of the worst teams in the conference and haven't demonstrated any consistency. They've lost by double digits four times in their last six games. So, how can they be trusted to beat a team by 9? Great value on Wilmington, take them and the points.