MistaFlava's CBB Thursday ***Power Selections*** (Writeups & Analysis)

[Mistaflava]

Have been on fire as of late, good luck tonight:



Thursday, February 21



Michigan Wolverines +7.5 (10 Units)

The Michigan Wolverines are playing their best basketball of the season right now as they come into this game on an impressive three game win streak that has them talking about making the Big Ten tournament and actually making some noise in the tournament. This is a very young team that took some time to get things going and this is a big game for them tonight because they already lost once this season to the Gophers and losing another is not really what this team is looking for. Michigan is now an impressive 6-1 ATS in their last seven games, they have definitely turned the corner on what has been a horrendous season and they are coming off wins over Ohio State, Iowa and Penn State (not big name wins or anything but thats definitely a start). Now comes the problem area for the Wolverines and that has been road wins as they are only 2-8 SU on the road this season and are 6-7 ATS in games away from home. Having said that, they looked pretty damn good in Wisconsin a few weeks back losing by three points, they followed that up with a 10 point loss in Ohio State and in their last road game they took care of business in a 60-52 win over Iowa. The Wolverines come into this game averaging 65.6 points per game in their last five games and in those games this team has shot an impressive (for them anyways) 43.6% from the floor. What has me excited about them tonight is the fact that Minnesota has allowed 66.8 points per game in their last five games and their last five opponents have shot a whopping 50.9% from the floor in those games. The Wolverines love taking three point jump shots as 43.2% of their shot attempts in their last five games have been from beyond the arc where they have hit 7.6 three pointers per game in those games for 33.9% shooting from beyond the arc. Thats a big problem for Minnesota because their last five opponents have hit 7.6 three pointers per game and have shot 41.3% from beyond the arc (well above NCAA average) so the Wolverines will have some open looks. Michigan is a good free throw shooting team but they don't get to the line much and rebounding is an issue. The Gophers have a big advantage on the boards tonight but if the Wolverines can get a lot of looks from the outside, they are going to keep this close. The guard play for Michigan has not been superb but it has been good in the last five games and I think these youngsters are going to make some plays against a Minnesota team that has allowed 15.0 assists per game in their last five games (13.1 is the NCAA average). Minnesota is aggressive defensively which is both good and bad because they average 8.0 steals per game in their last five games but Michigan hasn't turned the ball over much so it won't be a huge factor. I think the Wolverines can keep this close with some strong outside shooting and some continued good play from their guards.

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are 15-9 SU on the season but they are in quite the funk right now and Tubby Smith can't be too happy about it. The fact that Minnesota already has a blowout road win against this Michigan team probably has them a bit too confident coming into this game and that's definitely not something you want from a team slumping. The Gophers are coming off losses to both Illinois and Wisconsin and if the Fighting Illini can walk into this place and beat the Gophers by 24, I don't see why the Wolverines cant come in here tonight and do the exact same thing. Minnesota is now 9-4 SU at home this season but those four losses have come against Big Ten opponents and those four losses at home have all come in their last 10 games overall and in their last five home games which means this Gopher team is a tadbit overrated. Minnesota is 5-5 ATS at home this season, another example that their home crowd advantage is nothing to go crazy for and I don't think they should ever be favored by this many points against a team that plays a similar style as them. For some reason this team seems to play up or down to their competitions level and the proof of that was the Illinois home game followed by the close game against Wisconsin where the Gophers played quite well. Minnesota comes into this game averaging only 63.6 points per game in their last five games which is why I don't see them winning this game by a large amount of points. They are shooting only 40.4% from the floor in those games and any struggling that badly from the floor does not deserve to be favored by this many points. More importantly, Michigan has improved drastically on defense as they have allowed only 65.4 points per game in their last five games and have allowed those opponents to shoot only 44.8% from the floor which gives them an edge in this game. Minnesota is a team that relies heavily on their outside shooting as they have hit 7.8 three pointers per game in their last five games and hit 41.9% of their shots from beyond the arc in those games but Michigan's three point defense has been pretty damn good as of late and the Wolverines have allowed opponents to shoot only 32.1% from beyond the arc in their last five games. I also like the fact that Michigan has completely shut down opponents inside game as they have allowed only 12.2 free throw attempts per game in their last five games and Minnesota is not a team that gets to the free throw line much anyways as they rely on outside shooting. Rebounding is huge for Minnesota as they are a lot more aggressive on the boards than Michigan but the Wolverines have done a good job of holding teams off from grabbing too many offensive rebounds. Minnesota's guard play is better and more experienced than Michigan's as Lawrence Mackenzie and Lawrence Westbrook both run the show here and both can move the ball quite well. Having said that, the edge is not that big, Michigan's interior defense has done a good job of forcing turnovers in their last five games and I don't see why this shouldn't stay close for the most part. Minnesota does not have breakaway abilities and I do no trust them after seeing them get blown out of the water here by Illinois just last week.

This game means a lot more to Michigan because they still have an outside chance of winning some games and somehow making the Big Ten Conference tournament. The Wolverines are playing a lot better than they were when these two teams first met and there is no reason to believe they can't keep this game really close like they have been doing the last week or so against decent opponents. You have to be impressed by the fact that Michigan is now 5-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs because it shows that oddsmakers continue to disrespect this team as they get better. Minnesota on the other hand has done quite a good job of covering spread when favored as they have covered 5 of their last 6 games when eating chalk but that doesn't mean things aren't about to change here. The Gophers have not been playing well at home in recent weeks going 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and this is the same team that has covered the spread only 8 times in their last 26 games that follow an ATS win the game before. The Gophers are also only 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games when favored by 7 to 12.5 points in a game which is not good news against a red hot Michigan team. I like the underdog here.

Trend of the Game: Michigan is 5-1 ATS in their last six games as underdog.


Michigan 61, Minnesota 60



Oregon Ducks +4.5 (50 Units) ***REVENGE PLAY OF THE MONTH***

The Oregon Ducks are in Southern California tonight and they are here for blood. The unranked 15-10 SU Ducks are visiting the Trojans tonight with one thing on their minds and that is something called REVENGE. I say that because the Trojans walked into Eugene earlier this season and beat the Ducks on their own homecourt in a thrilling 95-86 win for USC. Since that loss to the Trojans the Ducks have actually played much better basketball winning three of their next five games. I know a lot of bettors are going to be skeptical of betting on this Ducks team seeing how they went to Stanford last week and looked as horrendous and can be in a 72-43 loss to the Cardinal but that was then and this is now and these Ducks bounced back nicely from that loss with an impressive 92-70 win on the road against California followed by an impressive 71-58 home win over the Washington Huskies as -6.5 point home favorites. The Ducks are back on the road tonight where they are 4-6 SU on the year with wins over California, Arizona, Kansas State and Portland (not a bad resume of away wins if you ask me). The Ducks are a decent 6-5 ATS this season in all games away from home and I really like them in this game tonight. Oregon comes into this game averaging 67.6 points per game in their last five games this season and in those games this team has shot an impressive 46.7% from the floor. However, things won't be that easy tonight against a USC team that has allowed only 64.4 points per game in their last five games and that has allowed opponents in those games to shoot only 42.7% from the floor. USC's defense is pretty damn good and they have played pretty damn well but how are they going to guard Oregon's three point shooting snipers? I mean the Ducks have made a whopping 10.0 three point shots per game in their last five games and they are shooting a ridiculous 45.0% from three point range in those games (NCAA average is 35.2%) which is quite incredible. USC has allowed their last five opponents to shoot only 31.5% from three point range but none of those teams can shoot the long ball like the Ducks can. I also like the fact that despite taking to many shots from three point range, this Ducks team has been to the line 17.8 times per game in their last five games and they have made 71.9% of their free throws in those games. The Ducks are not the best rebounding team in the PAC 10 but they do win tonight's matchup as USC has allowed a whopping 30.6 rebounds per game in their last five games and Maarty Leunen should be a big time factor down low for the Ducks in this game with his rebounding abilities. USC has allowed their last five opponents to grab 12.4 offensive boards per game, something that is going to kill them tonight. The Ducks also have a huge advantage in the guard play tonight as Daniel Hackett is out for the Trojans so you can expect Kamyron Brown and Tajuan Porter to really take control of things tonight. The Ducks have turned the ball over only 12.8 times per game in their last five games and USC has forced only 11.2 turnovers per game in their last five so the Ducks guards can really run the floor in this one and get away with pretty much anything. I love the matchup on the road for Oregon in this game and I think they are going to dominate on all sides of the ball in this game with the injury to Hackett. This line is crazy and im quacking tonight.

The USC Trojans are in trouble and im not saying that because I think the Ducks are going to walk all over them. I am saying that because they are without Daniel Hackett tonight who has been a huge part of this team's everyday operations on both sides of the floor and without one of their top guards, this team has not looked the same. I mean the UCLA game was their first game without Hackett and the Trojans were never really in it as they lost to the Bruins by 10 points. USC has now lost three of their last five games and they have lost their last two games by a combined total of 30 points which is really not a good sign for this team. The Trojans are only 6-5 SU at home this season which is a good indication that if you are going to beat this team, doing it on their homecourt is definitely the way to go seeing how they have only 9 total losses on the season anyways. In those home games USC is only 4-5 ATS and that comes nowhere near their 9-4 ATS mark away from home. The Trojans probably remember their three point win over Oregon in this place last season but they probably also know that the Ducks are not happy about losing in overtime at home against them back in January and they have to know that the Ducks are going to come out swinging for the fences in this game. USC comes into the game averaging only 61.0 points per game in their last five games and in those games they have shot 49.2% from the floor. That's impressive but I don't know that its going to work against this high flying speedy Oregon team. I mean as much as Oregon can score points, their defense has been quite impressive lately allowing only 65.0 points per game in their last five games and allowing those five opponents to shoot only 43.0% from the floor (both below the NCAA average for shooting percentage and points allowed). USC has been horrendous in their last five games shooting the ball from three point range as they have hit only 31.7% from out there and that should make things easier for an Oregon team that has at times allowed too many three point shots per game. The Trojans are screwed on the inside tonight as they have been to the free throw line only 15.0 times per game in their last five games and that just won't work against a high scoring team like Oregon who have sent their last five opponents to the line only 15.8 times per game (NCAA average is 20.3 times per game). On top of that, USC is shooting a horrendous 62.7% from the free throw line in those games. If you don't think the loss of Daniel Hackett and his playmaking abilities is big, look no further than the fact that USC averages only 9.0 assists per game in their last five games (4.1 assists below the NCAA average) and things wont get easier against a Duck defense that has allowed only 11.4 assists per game in their last five games. Not only has this team not been moving the ball around the way they used to but they have turned it over 14.4 times per game in their last five games and that just won't cut it against a team like Oregon that can easily make you pay for every single mistake you make. Unless someone on this USC team really steps up tonight, the Trojans are in big time trouble because they are clearly outclasses at the guard position tonight, they are clearly at a disadvantage on the glass tonight and they just don't have what it takes to keep up with the Ducks in this type of game. I think USC goes into a bit of a funk the next week or so which could cost them their season in the end.

This game tonight is not only about revenge but it's about Oregon having a huge edge when it comes to guard play now that Daniel Hackett is out for USC. Hackett had 26 points in the first meeting this season with 6 assists and 6 rebounds and the Trojans are going to miss him badly in this game tonight. That in my opinion is the big time X-Factor in this game and I hope most bettors don't forget how important Hackett is to the offensive production of this team. Without all the offensive production they can get in this game, I don't see how the Trojans can play an all around game as good Oregon's game tonight which is going to be a problem. The Ducks are coming off that loss to Washington State at home but the encouraging thing is that they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games that follow a SU loss and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games that follow an ATS loss. I think the betting public is going to be on USC in this game for the simple fact that they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games versus teams with a losing road record and 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games that follow a SU loss. However, this same Trojans team is without one of their top players Hackett and it is worth noting that the road team is a whopping 16-4 ATS in the last 20 meetings between these two teams and the underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. The Ducks fit the bill in both cases and they are my huge play tonight.

Trend of the Game: The road team is 16-4 ATS in the last 20 meetings in this series.


Oregon 81, USC 68

[jonny delta]

GL tonight Flava - liking the Wolverines my damn self - let's get 'em

[Reeter]

Tough one Flava. Get it back!