MistaFlava's CBB Thursday ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis + Live Plays)

[Mistaflava]

Not the best of days yesterday but you live and you learn. Wish me luck!

Thursday, March 13

Villanova Wildcats +6.5 (30 Units)

The Villanova Wildcats did exactly what I thought they would do yesterday and that was shock the world with a huge win over Syracuse. I called for the Wildcats to be the Tier III team in the Big East Tournament and by Tier III I mean the teams that had horrendous regular seasons and that are low seeds in this tournament, who have a good shot of pulling off an upset or two before heading home or possibly to the NIT Tournament. Having said that, Villanova was as impressive as could be yesterday in their tournament debut against the Orangemen and despite starting off the game with some horrendous shooting, the Wildcats definitely picked up the pace in the second half and got the shooting they needed from their star and veteran players. Scottie Reynolds was the star we Nova backers all needed him to be and I expect much more of the same from this team against a team they match up quite well against...the Hoyas. The 82-63 win over Syracuse now makes this team 7-8 SU away from home and an impressive 3-1 SU on neutral courts this season where they are also 8-7 ATS away from home this season. I give the edge to Nova in the first half here because they have a feel for the MSG court and they have shaken off whatever blues they had coming into this thing. The Wildcats come into this game averaging 73.2 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by shooting 43.2% from the floor which is a bit below NCAA average but still decent considering they attempt more than the average amount of shots. We are all aware of how well Georgetown plays defensively as they have allowed only 57.3 points per game this season and held their opponents to an impressive 36.4% shooting from the floor in those games. Yesterday I talked about Nova not taking too many three point shots in their games and that I expect again today. Georgetown is a very good perimeter defending team that takes away three point shooting on open looks which is why teams need to find another way to score against these guys. I turn my attention to the inside here because Villanova has a lot of size and strength and they have been to the free throw line 22.1 times per game this season which is where you want to be against the Hoyas. Georgetown's interior defense could use some help as they have sent opponents to the line 18.4 times per game this season so you can expect the Wildcats to get their chances in this one. The reason Villanova has given Georgetown so many problems in the past is because of rebounding and size. The Wildcats have grabbed a whopping 11.5 offensive rebounds per game this season and second chance points is why they have won games, making it a problem for a Georgetown squad that has been terrorized by good offensive rebounding teams and has allowed 10.4 offensive boards against per game. Scottie Reynolds is my x-factor in all the Villanova games this season because he is a very good shooter and a very good playmaker with great on-court vision. Sure ball movement comes at a premium against a team like Georgetown who allow only 10.8 assists against per game this season but the Nova backcourt has led them to 13.8 assists per game of their own while turning the ball over only 13.9 times per game which is good against this Hoyas team that can often be aggressive and force a lot of turnovers per game. The key to this game for Villanova to win and cover will be to continue to crash the boards and continue to attack the basket while being aggressive on defense. It has worked for them in the past against this team and they should have their groove on early in this game.

The Georgetown Hoyas know the expectations are very high coming into this tournament because they are the #1 seed in the tournament and this is the fourth time they have been the top seed in the Big East Tournament. The three previous times saw them go 4-0 SU each and every time winning the championship all three times so as you can imagine, most bettors and team personnel expect this version of the Hoyas (one of the most experienced in ages) to do just about the same. Having said that, other high seed teams like Pittsburgh, West Virginia and Marquette all had big time issues starting games properly yesterday and adjusting to the MSG court for some reason and I wouldn't be surprised if Georgetown goes down early in this game and struggled to get back into things. The Hoyas had a tremendous season and they are currently ranked #9 in the Country but they have not played since Saturday afternoon, a game that saw them beat Louisville for the Big East regular season title, a game that will surely bring with it a letdown. What you have to keep in mind here is that Georgetown has struggled at times on the road despite being 7-6 ATS away from home as they almost to Marquette, lost in Syracuse, Memphis, Pittsburgh and Louisville and barely got away with a win in West Virginia. Georgetown comes into this game averaging 69.4 points per game this season which is not as much as their opponents today but they still shot a very impressive 48.3% from the floor on the season and that should guarantee them some points in this game. The Hoyas are a team that takes an above average amout of three point shots this season as 39.7% of their shot attempts have come from beyond the arc and they are making 37.1% of those shots. Villanova doesn't mind allowing opponents to take the odd three point shot here and there and they certainly won't mind in this game seeing how teams playing for the first time did yesterday from beyond the arc (seems like that NBA line is bothering some of these teams and making them think they have to shoot from out there). Georgetown's seems to have resorted more to outside shooting this season than their non-existant inside game (apart from Hibbert there is nobody) as they average only 18.4 free throw attempts per game this season and have made only 67.0% of those shots. That is going to be a problem for the Hoyas because Nova doesn't mind fouling and they are a very aggressive team when it comes to interior defense. They have sent their opponents to the free throw line 24.1 times per game this season and they certainly take a lot of risks. Like I mentioned before, rebounding come become an issue in this game because apart from Roy Hibbert, the Hoyas struggled to grab offensive rebounds and second chance points are at minimum sometimes (the team averages 8.3 offensive boards per game). Villanova does a very good job of completely shutting down lanes on rebound opportunities as their opponents have averaged only 8.8 offensive rebounds per game this season which means they should have no problems keeping this game close. There is no doubt in anyone's minds that this is one of the best passing teams in the Country with their 15.3 assists per game with not one player having more than 80. The twist there is that a lot of their bigger guys have to handle the ball a lot more often and although that has led to only 13.1 turnovers per game this season, over aggressive teams like Villanova have been able to shut the Hoyas down which I expect to happen today. Villanova has forced a whopping 16.4 turnovers per game this season (they forced 18 Syracuse turnovers yesterday) on 8.1 steals per game in those games. I think Georgetown is going to have some success but their slow style of offense is going to hurt them here against a Villanova team that has already warmed up with their game yesterday.

The wise advice here would probably be for you to bet on Villanova first half if you like the Wildcats as much as I do. I say that because of all the favs getting off to slow starts yesterday in this tournament before eventually turning up the heat and pulling away in the second half to cover their respective spreads. I would like to immediately point out here in that in their last 10 meetings against each other, despite winning 5 of those meetings, not once did Georgetown beat the Wildcats by more than five points in any of those games and you have to go back years and years to find the last time this team did that. I talked about every cinderella team having some kind of star player and Scottie Reynolds is a more than capable guard for the Wildcats. It was him that stepped up his game yesterday to pull away from Cuse and it will be him that makes the big shots in this game. Villanova continues to turn heads when playing the underdog role as they are now 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog in games played on a neutral court. I don't know how many of you know this but Georgetown for some reason likes to win close games and they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games versus Big East opponents and more importantly they are 1-5 ATS in their last six games versus a team with a winning percentage of .600% or better. I like Nova in the upset.

Trend of the Game: Villanova is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games as an underdog.


Villanova 63, Georgetown 59








Will post more picks as the day progresses!

[IloveBaseball]

GL MistaFlava!

[Mistaflava]

I am aiming to go 3-0 ATS tonight in my picks, lets kick this bitch off with this bad boy:

Thursday, March 13

Pittsburgh Panthers +5.5 (50 Units)

***BIG EAST PLAY OF THE MONTH***

The Pittsburgh Panthers were my wager against the Cincinnati Bearcats last night and we pretty much all know how that went. As much as I said to myself that if the line was anywhere near a pk I would be all over the other team tonight, the line came out right where I wanted it to be if I was going to wager on the Panthers and the oddsmakers know what they are doing here. Sure the Panthers looked horrendous at times yesterday with their forced shots, lack of desire to pull away and weak defense against the sharp shooting of that kid Vaughn but the bottom line is that they ran into a hot shooter and the score was a lot closer than it probably should have been in that game. Had the Panthers not allowed Vaughn to tee off on them the way he did (he scored like almost all of Cincinnati's points in the second half), the line in this game would have been a lot closer to a pk and that's when things would have been pretty tricky. However, thats not the case here and the Panthers (who are now 7-7 SU away from home this season) are getting better and better as the season progresses with the health of Levance Fields being almost back to normal. With the win in the opening round, the Panthers have now won 4 of their last 5 games overall with wins over Cincinnati (twice), Syracuse and Depaul and although all of those teams are either not in this tournament or have already been bounced, the Panthers have the talent to compete and win here. Pittsburgh comes into this game averaging 73.4 points per game this season and they have managed to do that on 46.0% shooting from the floor which is a must against a good defensive team like Louisville. The Cardinals are tough to beat and they have allowed only 60.9 points per game this season and in those games have managed to hold their opponents to only 38.2% shooting from the floor, which will make things tougher on the Panthers. Having said that, the Cardinals lack enough depth on the interior defense that Pitt doesn't have to jack up three pointers all game and hope they fall. The Panthers have made 34.8% of their three point shots this season while the Cardinals have allowed 6.1 three pointers against per game but again, Louisvill doesn't give many looks from the outside and thats just not the game of the Panthers. I do however think the Panthers can be successful getting to the free throw line in this game as they have made 20.0 trips to the line per game this season and the Cardinals have problems with good interior teams as they have sent their opponents to the free throw line 18.0 times per game this season which is a lot for an elite defensive team. Although Louisville brings down more rebounds per game than the Panthers, I like the inside toughness and offensive rebounding abilities of some of the Panthers players like Blair and Young and they have averaged 12.3 offensive rebounds per game this season which is a problem for the Cardinals who are allowing opponents to grab 10.0 offensive boards per game against them this season. Believe it or not, I give the edge in guard play to Pittsburgh tonight as the Ronald Ramon and Levance Fields are both outstanding playmakers who should have no problems breaking this tough Cardinals defense. They have led the team to 15.6 assists per game this season while turning the ball over only 12.0 times per game and that is exactly what you need against a Louisville defense that has problems against teams that move the ball well around the perimeter creating chances on the inside. Sure the Cardinals force 14.1 turnovers per game this season and have 8.1 steals per game but again the Panthers are a team that takes good care of the basketball and they should be able to have their way in this game both from the outside and the inside when it comes to second chance points. I love the matchup for the Panthers here and I think they can keep this game low scoring and come out on top much like they did yesterday. If not, this game is going to come down to the final few seconds and someone will win on the final possession.

The Louisville Cardinals are making their Big East Tournament debut tonight with a second round matchup with the Pittsburgh Panthers and the big concern here has to be the fact that the Cardinals struggled in their only game against the Panthers this season and I don't see why this would be any different. The Cardinals come into this game on a bit of a because despite being the hottest team in the Big East to end the season and despite winning 9 of their last 10 games straight up, the Cardinals could not close the door on the regular season Big East Title losing their final game of the season against Georgetown in stunning fashion. So no matter what anyone says, the season was a disappointment of sorts because the team could not close the door on the conference title and their only hope at glory is to bring home the bacon in this tournament. You have to realize that although the Panthers are capable and are a good team, Louisville was the cream of the crop when it comes to teams to kicked serious ass on the road this season as they went 10-3-1 ATS away from home and went 9-5 SU in those games. The Cardinals however looked lackluster in some of their road games losing at UConn, Seton Hall and that now infamous game at Georgetown and despite the win at Pittsburgh this season you have to understand that Levance Fields could not have had a worse game that night and that is not about to happen again here in this spot. The Cardinals have been one of the best teams to bet on in the entire Country this season but as the #13 ranked team they have big shoes to fill and this game is not going to be easy. Louisville comes into this game averaging 72.0 points per game this season and in those games they have managed to shoot 45.7% (both well above the NCAA average in those categories). The only problem here is that the Cardinals tend to struggle against good defenses and the Panthers are tough to beat (unless your last name is Vaughn and you can shoot about 4-5 three pointers in a row from NBA range in this building). Pittsburgh has allowed 65.3 points per game this season and allowed the opponents in those games to shoot 42.7% from the floor and once again those are both well below the NCAA average so if you have a good defense, you have a good chance to beat teams like the Cardinals. Unlike the Panthers, Lousiville attempts a lot of three point shots as 39.6% of their shot attempts this season have come from beyond the arc and the team has knocked down 34.6% of those shots (below NCAA average). Despite allowing Vaughn to go on a rampage last night, the Panthers defend the perimeter well and they dont allow many open looks as their opponents have managed to knock down only 33.1% of their three point shots this season. I already talked about the success the Panthers are going to have on the inside and around the basket and although the Cardinals average more trips to the line per game than Pittsbugh (20.5 times per game) but the Panthers are not as easy to beat downlow as their opponents have managed to reach the free throw line only 16.4 times per game this season. That is a problem for the Cardinals if they can't get things going inside because they shoot only 65.6% from the free throw line and if they can't get all the points they can get downlow, they are going to fall behind and have problems coming back. The Cardinals also don't get as many second chance point opportunities as Pittsburgh because they bring down only 10.4 offensive rebounds per game. Having said that, it has to be known that the Panthers allow their opponents to grab only 9.4 offensive rebounds per game and second chance points are pretty rare against this team (this once again cuts down on the number of points I think Louisville is going to score in this game). Terrence Williams is the key to success for this Cardinals team because if he is not out there making plays and creating chances, this team is not going to score points. Williams has led the team to 14.7 assists per game this season but the team has a problem with turnovers averaging 13.2 of them per game on the season. Turning the ball over in a game like this is going to get you down on the scoreboard seeing how the Panthers have managed to force 13.5 turnovers per game this season and have 6.5 steals per game. I think Louisville could come out strong early because that's the way they are but I don't know that they can handle the Panthers inside and outside all night and I don't know that they have the scoring weapons to handle this complex Pittsburgh defense. I am fading them here.

I am not sure what kind of game to expect here but I do know that we are not going to see a blowout on either side and this game should go bucket for bucket for the most part which is why I think the 5.5 is way too much. Like I mentioned earlier, had that Vaughn kid on Cincinnati not gone nuts on the Panthers yesterday, they would have probably won by 15+ points and the line for this game would be a lot different. There is no Vaughn kid on this Louisville team and they have been known to go ice cold at times in games, working the clock and shrinking the game, which will work in the favor of the Panthers. In their only meeting this season (in Pittsburgh), the Cardinals came out on top by two points after being up by six at the half and although that win was impressive, I think it will be hard to duplicate against a good team like the Panthers. Like I mentioned earlier, Levance Fields had one of his worst games ever that night and if he plays even a few notches better this time out, things should be very different. ATS wise the Panthers don't have much going for them this game but that was the same exact deal with West Virginia in the last game. Louisville on the other hand is 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games versus teams with a SU winning record on the season but they have struggled in neutral site games going 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games played on a neutral court. I am banking large on the Panthers in this game because I think the line is blown up because of that Vaughn kid did against them yesterday. They actually played well enough to win big and this should be a big one tonight. GO PITT!

Trend of the Game: Louisville is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 neutral court games.

Pittsburgh 65, Louisville 62

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2 more selections on the way tonight, 9:00pm game and a late night game.

[Sportzlova]

Couldn't disagree more. Go Cards!!!

[hodgee]

[Bud Man]

Just sent it in on Louisville, wish I'd seen this sooner. My thoughts are Pitino's finally got a good team to bring to NY, and he's going to have them rolling thru to the finals. Cards by 17.

[Mistaflava]

$$$$$ $$$$$ $$$$$ $$$$$ $$$$$

[uva3021]

nice call

[Mistaflava]

Thursday, March 13

Marquette Golden Eagles -1 (10 Units)

The Marquette Golden Eagles are the kind of team that can make you rich one night but make you want to jump off a bridge the next. Having said that I don't have a problem backing them right here because I am a big fan of the way they finished off Seton Hall last night. The Golden Eagles are currently ranked #24 in the Country and they are just as much contenders to win this tournament as some of the big name schools. They have some primetime point guards and some big strong players up front which gives them a good match up against pretty much anyone they face. The Golden Eagles finished the regular season on a pretty strong note despite losing their season finale against the Syracuse Orangemen on the road. How could you not like this team knowing they should have beat Georgetown at home late in the season and knowing their only other loss in the month of February (apart from the GT loss) was against these Notre Dame Fighting Irish on the road where they got screwed. All in all this Marquette team is 8-6 SU on the road this season and they have been absolute cash money with a 9-4 ATS record in those games. Before you start doubting teams like Marquette it would be smart to have a look at what they have done away from home and realize that this team has won some big time games this season. The Golden Eagles come into this game averaging 76.0 points per game this season and they have done that by also shooting 44.9% from the floor in those games. I think Marquette is going to have an easy time scoring points tonight as they are up against a Notre Dame team that has allowed 69.9 points per game this season and that have let their opponents in those games shoot 40.9% from the floor. So as much as this team allows points, opponents don't shoot all that well against them. The Golden Eagles dont shoot a particularly high amount of three point shots but when they do, they make 36.0% of them and 7.1 three pointers made per game. That's probably good knowing that Notre Dame allows a lot of three point shots against per game and their opponents have made 7.3 three point shot attempts per game this season. Marquette is a team that is aggressive around the basket and that loves attacking the hoop as they have been to the free throw line 21.6 times per game this season and are making almost 70% of their free throws. Having said that, Marquette may want to focus on taking a lot of three point shots in this game because the Fighting Irish are a good interior defense team and they have allowed opponents to reach the foul line only 14.5 times per game this season. I think in the end, Marquette is going to win this game on second chance points as they are averaging 11.6 offensive rebounds per game this season and the Fighting Irish are not that hard to beat downlow as they have problems boxing out and they have allowed 11.1 offensive rebounds per game this season. What that also means is that teams who have good guards who can move the ball around are bound to have great looks from the floor against teams like Notre Dame. I say that because the Irish have allowed opponents to go for a whopping 15.3 assists per game and both McNeal and James are going to have a field day against this defense as they have led the Golden Eagles to 15.3 asssists per game this season and have turned the ball over only 12.9 times per game. The Fighting Irish dont force a lot of turnovers and that is not good against a Marquette team that handles the ball very well. Notre Dame has forced only 12.4 turnovers per game this season and only 6.4 steals per game . I think Marquette can really take the game to the Irish in this game and I think the Golden Eagles have the depth to make this a game and takeover in the late stages based on their good ball handling guards. My money is on the Golden Eagles to shock the betting world who seems to love the Irish in this spot.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish make their debut in the Big East Conference tournament with the biggest expectations they have had in ages. I say that because this team comes in here ranked #14 in the Country and they finished the regular season with a very impressive 24-6 SU record on the season and finished with a 14-4 SU Big East conference record. The Irish have dominated teams all season with some high scoring and good defending and they are the one team that is not worried to shoot things out in this Conference knowing that if they can get through some of the defenses, they can pretty much win any game they play. The Fighting Irish finished the season off with 8 wins in their last 10 games with their only two losses coming on the road against Connecticut and Louisville (which is not that bad at all considering both teams are probably better than the Irish). Having said that, apart from their win over Marquette at home by three points, this Irish team has really not faced the cream of the crop when it comes to opponents and I am concerned that their level of opposition recently does not have them ready for this game. The Irish went only 6-6 SU on the road this season and only 6-6 ATS in those games which really doesn't have me impressed and which really shows me that this team is probably not ready to win games in this tournament. Notre Dame comes into this game averaging a whopping 80.7 points per game this season and they have done that by shooting 46.0% from the floor in those games. So we all know this team can score and we all know this team can ball with the best of them in this Conference. However, you have to understand that this team is a very good three point shooting team and they are making a crazy 41.1% from three point land this season despite taking only 33.4% of their shot attempts from beyond the arc. The x-factor for me in this game is going to be Marquette's ability to shut down opponents three point shooting with good perimeter defense as they have allowed their opponents this season to shoot only 29.3% from beyond the arc this season giving up only 4.9 three pointers made per game. That is going to force the Irish to become more one dimentional in this game and that has not really worked out for them when they have had to do it during the regular season. As much as they can hit three point shots, this team also has some outstanding inside presense players who can get to the hoop and who can force fouls as they have been to the free throw line 21.6 times per game this season. Marquette does not mind allowing inside game defensively as long as they don't get drilled from three point land and that is obvious because they have allowed opponents to go to the free throw line 22.1 times per game this season and with the Irish being such a good free throw shooting team, that should keep this game close. The Irish have the rebounding edge on paper in this one because they bring down 38.3 rebounds per game this season but what you need to know is that they take a ton of shots per game and in the end they bring down 11.5 offensive rebounds per game. Marquette has been very good when it comes to team rebounding and avoiding second chance points as they have allowed only 10.2 offensive rebounds per game this season. I think Marquette shutting down the extra chances could be the big difference in this game when it comes down to the end. I want to also point out that Notre Dame has the best ball moving team in the Big East by far as they average a whopping 19.9 assists per game this season and have turned the ball over only 12.9 times per game in those games. Having said that, Marquette is the best ball hawking team in the Big East and they force the most turnovers per game as they have knocked the ball out of opponents hands a crazy 16.9 times per game this season with 9.6 steals per game. Its also worth noting that they one of the best teams in the conference when it comes to shutting down opponents passes and dribble penetration setting up open looks and that should be the difference again here. McNeal and James are tremendous defenders who take a bunch of chances and I like both of them to cause a lot of problems for the Notre Dame guards who are going to try and move the ball around like there is no tomorrow. Bye bye Irish.

This is going to be game of the day if you ask me and I am not missing out on having action here. Both teams are desperate to win and prove themselves with their TOP 25 rankings and whichever team losses will still make the NCAA tournament regardless. This is for Big East pride and I think overall Marquette has the better team despite lacking experience in some areas. The Golden Eagles are the better ball handling team (very important in tournaments like this), they have the better bench (very important in tournaments like this) and overall they have more abilities to D things up and shut down their opponents. Notre Dame on the other hand does have the better scorers and they do rebound well but they got lucky to beat Marquette at home this season and got blown out of the water in their only visit to Milwaukee this season (score was 92-66 and that was one hell of a blowout). Marquette is now 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a favorite on a neutral court and they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less which indicates that close games and games with small spreads are made for them. Notre Dame on the other hand is a very good underdog that is 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games as underdogs so that is a bit of a concern but they did start off as favorites and Im not too sure who pounded away on Marquette but someone did and it wasn't the public. Eagles sore in this one.

Trend of the Game: Marquette is 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a neutral court favorite.

Marquette 81, Notre Dame 74

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Rollled big time with Pittsburgh and now its time to cash one more time with another play left for tonight.

[Mistaflava]

Thursday, March 13

New Mexico Lobos -4 (30 Units)

The Utah Utes are coming off what some consider a decent season for them as they went 16-13 SU on the year, they won 7 games in Mountain West Conference play and finished with a 12-13-1 ATS record on the season. Having said all that this is not a good basketball team and I was not impressed at all with the way they finished the season. The Utes lost five of their last six games in the regular season going a pathetic 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games and pretty much costing anyone tailing them some money. In those games, the Utes were favored in four of those last seven games and they lost three of them to teams that are not all that good. They were favored against this Lobos team at home a few weeks ago and lost. They were also favored in trips to TCU and Wyoming and they lost both those games by a combined 14 points while being touted as the better team in both occasions. This Utes team is 5-9 SU away from home this season and in those games they have managed a record of 7-6-1 ATS which goes to show that they have not been all that bad to bet on when playing away from home. In their last 10 games the Utes were underdogs twice and lost both times SU and ATS by a combined margin of 15 points. Utah comes into this game averaging 67.9 points per game this season and they have done that by shooting 47.9% from the floor which is quite impressive but might not be enough to win this game. However, Nex Mexico is going to be tough to beat in this spot as they have allowed only 61.9 points per game this season and have allowed those opponents to shoot only 40.7% from the floor (both well below the NCAA average in those categories). Utah is a very good three point shooting team as they have hit 39.3% of their shots from three point range this season with 7.2 three pointers made per game but Nex Mexico won't have problems defending the open perimeter shots as their opponents have managed to shoot only 33.7% from beyond the arc this season. If you are going to beat New Mexico, it won't be done from the outside its going to be done from the inside and that is a problem for Utah because they are not a tough interior team and they average only 15.4 trips to the free throw line per game this season (hitting 75.0% however which is not bad). The Lobos allow their opponents to go to the line 20.5 times per game this season indicating that they defend the outside a lot better than the inside but Utah can't exploit that. The Utes are too small to get many second chance points as they average a paltry 7.1 offensive rebounds per game this season and you can forget about them getting any additional chances as New Mexico is very good at blocking out and they have allowed only 7.2 offensive rebounds against per game this season. The guard play of Luke Drca is above average as he has led this team to 14.7 assists per game this season with only 12.5 turnovers per game but he is not a scorer and the Utes could be in trouble against this New Mexico team that forces a whopping 16.1 turnovers per game with 6.3 steals per game. Getting good ball movement is not easy against this Lobos team and I really think Utah is going to have all sorts of problems on offense in this game. Their only hope is playing tough defense and holding on all game but I just don't see that happening here. No Utes tonight.

The Nex Mexico Lobos are definitely the better team in this game and although I have only watched them play once this season, I have come to understand that they are a very good scoring team and if teams fall asleep playing against these guys, the Lobos find a way to pull away and blow you out of the gym. The Lobos are coming off one of their best seasons in a very long time as they finished the year with an impressive 24-7 SU record this season and that includes an 11-5 SU mark in conference play (including two wins over this very same Utah team that they face tonight). Both games were very close but they have not played for 2-3 weeks now and I really want to emphasize on how much the Lobos have improved since their games against Utah earlier this season. The Lobos 8-2 SU in their last 10 games coming into this tournament with an 8-2 ATS record in those games and for those who think this team did not play all that well during that streak, the Lobos beat the Utes as underdogs and they covered most of their short favorites spreads. Nex Mexico is 8-5 SU on the season away from home and in those games the team managed to go 8-4-1 ATS in those games which has me thinking that this away tournament is a good thing for this team. The Lobos come into this game averaging 74.2 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done by shooting 46.6% from the floor in those games and if they can score a bunch of points they should have no problems with the spread tonight. Utah is not a bad defensive team and they love to slow the game down as they have allowed only 62.9 points per game this season and allowed their opponents to shoot only 42.0% from the floor. One of the reasons I love betting on this team is because they have been known to go on three point shooting rampages as they have made 42.6% of their shots from beyond the arc this season and have one of the best three point shooting records in the NCAA this season. That could spell big problems for this Utah team that has allowed their opponents to hit 35.4% of their shots from three point range and if the Lobos can get going with Toppert and Smith from long distance, this game won't last very long. I also like the inside game the Lobos bring to the table as they average a decent 21.7 times per game this season which is a good thing against this Utah defense that has problems shutting down the interior and have sent their opponents to the free throw line 19.2 times per game this season. Giddens is a beast in the middle and to the basket and he can rebound just as well as this team has grabbed 31.8 rebounds per game this season but they don't get all that many second chance point opportunities so they are going to have to make the best of their chances at the line and their open looks from the outside. Giddens and Dairese Gary are stud guards who share the ball handling duties and have done a tremendous job as they have led this team to an outstanding 16.5 assists per game this season which means that they are going to get some good looks in this game. Utah is tough to move the ball around against in the perimeter and around the horn but the Lobos have the fire power to get things done and they have turned the ball over only 12.2 times per game this season. Utah, as tough as they play defensively, have forced only 11.6 turnovers per game this season and if you ask me that is just not going to be good enough in a tournament game like this one as the Lobos really take care of the ball. I expect New Mexico to go on a few three point shooting barrages in this game and should the Utes decided to take away the outside, guys like Giddens should have no problems getting to the hoop and forcing Utah into early foul trouble for the entirety of this game. I really like the Lobos to win and cover here....large.

I am not a big follower of the Mountain West Conference and have only watched a few games this season so I am going on a limb here and going based only on my paper capping skills. Having said that, paper capping is sometimes good because it gives you a better idea of what some teams are really all about without judging them on television versus different opponents. You have the #3 seed in this tournament taking on the #6 seed with both teams making their tournament debuts in this game. I have been impressed with the amount of money one would have made tailing the Lobos all season as they have been cash money in most games and are 2-0 ATS in their two meetings with the Utes. Sure the spread is a bit blown up but its appropriate and the Lobos should have no problems burrying these guys into the ground. Utah has never been a good underdog bet and they are actually 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a neutral court underdog and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games versus conference opponents. Nex Mexico on the other hand is an outstanding 8-1 ATS in their last nine conference games versus Mountain West opponents and they are 22-5-1 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite which makes them a must wager in this game. The underdog has been good in this series but my money is all over the much better team and the Utes defense wont be as problematic tonight as it has been in the past.

Trend of the Game: Utah is 22-5-1 ATS in their last 28 games versus Mountain West Conference opponents.


New Mexico 72, Utah 59





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Thats it and thats all for today, hope you enjoyed it and made some big cash!

[Mistaflava]

bringing home Marquette would be nice before the grand finale!!!

[wyzguy88]

riding with you on new mexico....how many $ is each unit for u?


gl

[Mistaflava]

Originally Posted by wyzguy88

riding with you on new mexico....how many $ is each unit for u?


gl

usually $100 per unit


lets get this one