MistaFlava's CBB Wednesday ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Live Picks)

[Mistaflava]

I am posting picks as the day goes along, lets go for some big time wins boys and girls and the target here today is 50 UNITS.

Wednesday, March 12

Villanova Wildcats +2.5 (30 Units)

The Syracuse Orangemen are always going to be the public's little darling when it comes to betting in the BIG EAST Conference Tournament and I say that because seeing how this game and all the games are played at MSG, the crowd is usually pro-Syracuse and that has a big impact on how things go in these games. Having said that, I think it's imperative that you know that I am huge Syracuse fan in both football and basketball and I usually have a good read on how things are going to go with their young teams. The Orangemen need this win and a whole lot more if they have any plans of making the NCAA Tournament and not the NIT tournament (which is where I think they are ultimately heading anyways). The Orangemen finished the season very strong with two wins over Marquette at home and versus Seton Hall on the road but that doesn't change the fact that this is one of the most inconsistent teams in the Big East Conference so you don't really know what you are getting night in and night out. The Orangemen went 5-7 SU away from home this season and in those games managed to go 6-6 ATS. Regardless of where this is being played, this is still an away game for this team and they have not been trusworthy on the road. Syracuse comes into this game averaging 79.0 points per game this season and they have done that by shooting 48.5% from the floor which is pretty damn impressive seeing how both are well above NCAA averages. Villanova however has a decent defense that has allowed only 69.1 points per game this season and allowed their opponents to shoot only 43.6% from the floor. However, Syracuse shot only 43.5% away from home this season and Nova has been just as good defensively away from home as they have been in comfortable quarters. Some of you may be concerned with the 7.1 three point shots made per game Nova is allowing away from home but Syracuse is horrendous when shooting the three ball on the road this season making only 27.6% of their attempts from beyond the arc. The points are going to have to come on the inside today for the Orangemen as they average 22.4 trips to the free throw line per away game this season and Nova has had problems shutting teams interior games down. The only problem here is that Syracuse shoots only 66.8% from the free throw line so Nova fouling over and over again may not be a bad thing. Syracuse has been dominating games with toughness inside and I have to admit that they probably have a small edge here on the Wildcats in terms of size and interior strength. Having said that, the winner of this game will be the winner of the offensive boards battle and even though Cuse brings down 11.4 offensive rebounds per game, Villanova is a very good rebounding team with guys who know how to blockout and they have allowed only 8.9 offensive rebounds against per game this season. The Wildcats are also extremely aggressive on the floor as they have forced a whopping 16.3 turnovers per game this season and that is going to be problematic for this Syracuse team that is very young and very turnover prone at 15.6 turnovers per game this season. I do admire the play of Jonny Flynn and Paul Harris (this team has a very bright future) as they have led them to 16.4 assists per game but Nova is very good at containing ball movement and they force a lot of bad outside shots late in the shot clock off rotation blocks. They average 8.1 steals per game and this game is really going to come down to turnovers. I think Syracuse has a very good team for the future but youth and lack of experience is going to be their downfall as a more experience Villanova team is going to take care of business in this game and shut the Orange down when it matters most.

The Villanova Wildcats are not regarded as a team that can do much in this tournament (they need to win it all for any kind of chance at making the Big Dance) but we have seen some big time surprises in this tournament in the past and please do not be shocked if Villanova pulls off an upset or two before heading home and prepping for next season. The Wildcats have a bunch of players returning from last season's team that had no problems beating Syracuse late in the season and like I have already mentioned many times, experience is going to take you a long way in games like this and the return of guys like Clark, Cunningham, Reynolds and Redding is huge. The Wildcats actually got really hot near the end of the season as they finished 5-2 SU in their last seven games of the regular season going 6-2 ATS in their last eight games and beating teams like St. John's on the road, West Virginia at home, Connecticut at home, South Florida at home and most importantly...Providence on the road (their last game before this tournament). So by the looks of things this team is finally starting to wakeup at the right time of the season and this team looks to improve on their 6-8 SU mark away from home this season. I believe in late season revivals and this team has looked pretty good heading into this tournament. Villanova comes into this game averaging 72.9 points per game this season and they have done that by shooting 43.0% from the floor which is not that good but not that bad. This is not a flashy team by any means but they don't shy away from taking three point shots and that has made them or killed them all season as they are unstoppable when hot, but horrendous when not. Syracuse has had a bad habit of leaving outside shooters wide open all season (signs of a young team still learning) and their opponents have managed to knock down 8.3 three point shots per game this season on 34.7% shooting from beyond the arc. The Orangemen's defense has been better than average but again they do lack experience and they do allow way too many shots per game (62.2 shots per game while NCAA average is 55.2). The interior defense has been decent for Syracuse all season but the Wildcats still have a bunch of guys who can be tough downlow and they have been to the free throw line 22.1 times per game this season making 71.8% of their charity baskets. I already gave the rebounding edge to Syracuse here but Villanova still has toughness and they still come down with 11.5 offensive rebounds per game which is going to be a problem for Syracuse who sometimes get lazy and allow 10.5 offensive rebounds against per game, meaning Villanova should win the battle of second chance points. Scottie Reynolds is not a great playmaking guard and this team lacks a real big time playmaker as they average only 13.7 assists per game this season but again, Syracuse is horrendous against ball movement and opponents have averaged 15.7 assists per game against this team so I expect Villanova to have some chances and to have some great looks off good ball movement. Sure the Orangemen force a lot of turnovers defensively but Nova has done a good job holding onto the ball this season and they have lost it only 13.8 times per game. As long as Villanova can play their game, get some open looks and win some battles down low, I don't have any doubts they are going to walk away with this game. They have a ton more experience, a ton more guys who have been here and done that before and that could take them a long way in the wild and whacky Big East.

You can tout crowd support all you want in this game but the bottom line is that Syracuse had tons more support in their home game against Nova earlier this season and they lost that by 10 in the Carrier Dome so saying that support is the only reason you want to bet them here is pretty lame. In order to advance in tournaments like this, you need gamebreakers and I am talking about guys like Carmelo Anthony (in the past) and a bunch of other guys who came through this Conference and led inferior teams to big tournament wins. Well in this case my eyes are on Scottie Reynolds who has been quiet as of late but this should be his time to shine and Nova could shock a lot of people in this tournament. In case you haven't noticed yet, Villanova has been one of the best underdog bets in the Big East Conference the last few seasons as they are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as underdogs and have covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 games versus Big East opponents. The last time these two teams met in March was last season (season ender) and it has to be pointed out that 4 current Wildcats (combined for 51 points in that game) are still on the team while Syracuse brings back only Paul Harris from that game which could be the X-Factor here.

Trend of the Game: Villanova is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog.


Villanova 76, Syracuse 72









More picks to be posted as the day progresses....

[Cali Roots]

FYI, that trend you posted is wrong! They have lost 4 ats as a dog in just their last 7 games alone as a dog!! They were dogs to lville, marquette, st joes, and Pitt and lost all ats!

[Yankee23]

Actually they are 8-10 in there last 3 seasons as an underdog.

Also FYI 'Cuse changed their name to the Orange 4 years ago, they are no longer the Orangemen.

Good luck with Nova

[goldengreek]

didnt you go tout ?

[Swamp-Gator]

GL Today Flava!!

[lechu]

Originally Posted by goldengreek

didnt you go tout ?

I THINK HE DID?

[Mistaflava]

Wednesday, March 12

West Virginia Mountaineers -8 (10 Units)

The Providence Friars don't really stand a chance of winning this game or coming close to it but making the tournament was good enough for them and they are just happy to have a chance. I would actually give them a chance against many other Big East Opponents because they do have six wins in conference play this season but West Virginia is a very bad matchup for this team and I don't like where this is going for this team. The Friars lost seven of their last 10 games coming into this tournament with their one and only big win coming against an out of sorts Connecticut team that has struggled to show consistency this season and that win was at home anyways. If you look at the way this team has played away from home, you will understand why I am all over the Mountaineers in this one as Providence is 5-9 SU on the road this season (neutral site games included). Since beating Connecticut for the first of two times this season back in a January 17 road games, Providence did not win another road game until needing overtime to beat Cincinnati on March 2. The bottom line here is that this team is 5-9 ATS away from home. When they win games on the road they generally cover the spread, when they lose games on the road they usually don't cover the spread. Providence comes into this game averaging 73.3 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by shooting 45.0% from the floor which is not that bad considering their very mediocre record on the road and overall this season. However, West Virginia's defense is tough to play against as the Mountaineers have allowed only 63.0 points per game this season and have allowed their opponents to shoot only 41.4% from the floor in those games. It is a well know fact that Providence likes to take a large amount of three point shot attempts per game as they have made 7.8 three point shots per game this season but that won't be a problem for West Virginia as they have allowed 5.9 three point shots made against per game this season and they generally contest most shots from deep range. I can't say this team has a large inside presence and thats good news for WVU backers because the Mountaineers allow a lot cheap points on the inside but Providence has been to the free throw line only 19.0 times per game this season and that's just not good enough when playing from behind. Again this is a case where both teams are evenly matched in the rebounding and size department but the problem with Providence is that although they do bring down a decent 11.2 offensive rebounds per game, West Virginia is very aggressive around their own basket and they barely allow second chance points as their opponents this season have averaged only 8.7 offensive rebounds per game. Geoff McDermott is an outstanding guard and he has led this team to 14.7 assists per game this season but the problem here again is that for all the good looks this team gets and all the good passes they make, they still turn the ball over way too many times per game and turning the ball over 14.2 times per game is not going to work against a WVU defense that forces a whopping 15.6 turnovers per game this season and averages 7.2 steals per game. Unless this team can get rid of their turnover problem overnight I don't see how they come close in this game. They don't have the toughness or the scoring prowness needed to play catchup with the Mountaineers and once they go down by a lot, I just don't see them having the discipline to pulloff any kind of comeback in this game. Providence has been a good fade away from home all season and that is not about to change in this game. I will continue to fade them into next season.

The West Virginia Mountaineers are a very good bet for the darkhorse team that can come out on top in the Big East Tournament this season and a lot of experts already have them pegged for the FINAL FOUR. However, this team knows very well that coming out of the gates slowly in this tournament can spell disaster early as we have seen first round upsets in the past and there is no way this team wants anything to do with that. The Mountaineers come into this tournament playing some of their best basketball this season as won 7 of the last 10 games on the season straight up and went 6-3-1 ATS in those games. Playing as big favorite or double digit favorite is nothing new to this team as in their last 10 games they were -9.5 against St. John's (loss), -5.5 against Pittsburgh (win), -5.5 against Depaul (win), -11.5 against this Providence team (win), -13 against Seton Hall (win) and -18 against Rutgers (push). So they have done well in this role and they are the kind of team that can explode for bunches of points at a time. Joe Alexander has been stud and has probably been the best player in the Conference over the last few weeks which is good because if you are going to have success in this tournament you need to have some stars. The Mountaineers are 9-7 SU away from home this season and they have gone 7-8 ATS in those games which is not that bad at all considering some of the teams they have faced. West Virginia comes into this game averaging 75.8 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by shooting 45.4% from the floor. The catch here is that Providence has struggled against teams that can score a lot of points as the Friars have allowed 72.6 points per game this season and allowed those same opponents to shoot 44.3% from the floor (both above NCAA averages in those categories). You would think like years past that WVU is a three point shooting team but only 35.1% of their shot attempts this season have come from beyond the arc which is right around the NCAA average anyways. They have made 36.2% of those shots but Providence is a team that guards the outside shooting quite well and I don't think it will bother the Mountaineers too much to have to move things to the inside where they have dominated. I say that because led by Alexander, this team has been to the free throw line 22.0 times per game this season (they are not the best free throw shooting team however) and Providence has struggled to contain opponents on the inside sending them to the line 21.1 times per game this season. It is also worth noting that rebounding is going to be huge in this game because second chance points are going to determine the size of the win and West Viriginia has a very good chance of dominating seeing how they average 10.2 offensive rebounds per game while Providence has problems grabbing rebounds sometimes and opponents have averaged 10.7 offensive boards per game against them. Darris Nichols has led this team on the floor all season and this is a group that can really move the ball around as a team and find the open shooters. They have 15.7 assists per game this season and that is going to be a problem for Providence because the Friars dont defend the perimeter well at times and have allowed 14.4 assists against per game, meaning once you start moving the ball around, they are in trouble. The Mountaineers have turned the ball over only 10.4 times per game which is a good indication that they are going to win a game big almost everytime against teams that struggle to score and that struggle to play from behind. I think the Mountaineers come out and win this game large.

The second round of this tournament already has West Virginia penciled if you ask me but they have to come out and strike some fear in the eyes of those teams waiting with the BYE. I am a big believer that good teams are going to come out strong and finish strong in games like this. These two teams saw each other twice this season and both times West Virginia completed dominated the games from start to finish with wins of 12 points in the road game and 27 points in the home game. Do the math and that means the neutral court game should see them win by 14.5 points or so which is well enough to cover the spread in this game. Providence just doesn't have enough scoring or enough efficiency to compete in a game like this one and WVU could make a case for one of the teams who should have had a BYE (although its determined by finish in the conference). Providence is a pathetic 1-6 ATS in their last seven games versus teams with a winning record and they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games played on a neutral court. West Virginia on the other hand have been very good when favored on neutral courts as they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as neutral court favorites and they are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games versus Providence, a team they have owned in the past and should own today.

Trend of the Game: West Virginia is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a neutral court favorite.

West Virginia 79, Providence 64

[jamhats]

nice play with villanova. what does 30 units mean anyway? how much is 1 unit when you bet?? i just don't get how someone could be likely 150 percent or maybe even 300 percent of their bankroll on one game. (assuming a unit is 5 or 10 percent of your bankroll unless 1 unit is like .5 percent or something)

[CiscoKid]

Great call on Nova my friend

Good LUck with the rest of your plays

The CiscoKid

[passthebeer]

Originally Posted by jamhats

nice play with villanova. what does 30 units mean anyway? how much is 1 unit when you bet?? i just don't get how someone could be likely 150 percent or maybe even 300 percent of their bankroll on one game. (assuming a unit is 5 or 10 percent of your bankroll unless 1 unit is like .5 percent or something)

When you use monopoly money it doesn't matter. You just go to toys r us and buy another game for 10 bucks.

[I want MONEY?]

is it possible, he is just showing you how much he likes the game?????????????? Nothing like someone questioning another man's plays

[BTO]

ppl like to get in others business, waste of time

[SecretStash]

Originally Posted by goldengreek

didnt you go tout ?

he did go tout, but im assuming he can still post here, because the place where he sells doesn't know he giving away his 50$ picks today LOL

and also, truthfully as long as he doesn't mention sites (even though we both know where), i dont think he has ever touted here...so i guess jack/mods would let it slide.


with that being said, there is a few others who do this regularly, and some not (tout that is, and still post)

Dont worry I wont tell if u are reading this


GL flava

-stash

[mrwho]

Originally Posted by SecretStash

he did go tout, but im assuming he can still post here, because the place where he sells doesn't know he giving away his 50$ picks today LOL

and also, truthfully as long as he doesn't mention sites (even though we both know where), i dont think he has ever touted here...so i guess jack/mods would let it slide.


with that being said, there is a few others who do this regularly, and some not (tout that is, and still post)

Dont worry I wont tell if u are reading this


GL flava

-stash

hey punk, where ya been?

[jamhats]

i'm not gettin in another man's business i'm just curious what his STARS mean. What is it out of? If it's out of say 100 stars then a 30 star play isn't that big of a play. if it's out of 30 it's obviously a huge play. GEt what I'm saying now>?