Picking a Winning Bracket

Seanie Mac · #1 03-15-2009, 11:30 PM

Their coach will have at least five years of tourney experience – Only two coaches in the history of the modern era won a championship without at least five years of tourney experience under their belts: Steve Fisher of Michigan in 1989 and Tom Izzo of Michigan State in 2000.

The team will have been in last year’s tourney – Only one in the last 24 champions did not play in the tournament the year before. That was Syracuse in 2003.

The team will come from a Power conference – Only Louisville and UNLV, way back in 1986 and 1990 respectively, did not come from the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 10 or SEC.

The team will be seeded no lower than No. 4 – Only two teams have won the championship with lower seeds—and the most recent was 18 years ago, when Kansas won as a No. 6 seed in 1988. The other Cinderella champ? Villanova, of course, which knocked off top-seeded Georgetown as a No. 8 seed.

The team will score at least 77 points and win by 10 or more points per game – All but three tourney champs were less prolific or dominant: Villanova, Kansas and the defensive-minded 2000 MSU squad. (louisville gone)

- dont pick teams that score under 68 points a game

- do not pick teams with under .400 road winning percentage

Here are some of the things you should know about the tournament.

First-round NCAA Tournament Trends:

No. 8 seeds are 14-10 vs. No. 9 seeds since 2002.
No. 7 seeds are 17-7 vs. No. 10 seeds since 2002.
No. 6 seeds are 17-7 vs. No. 11 seeds since 2002.
No. 5 seeds are 15-9 vs. No. 12 seeds since 2002 (6-2 last two years).
No. 4 seeds are 20-4 vs. No. 13 seeds since 2002.
No. 3 seeds are 22-2 vs. No. 14 seeds since 2002.
No. 2 seeds have lost to No. 15 seeds just four times in NCAA Tournament history.
No No. 1 seed has ever lost to a No. 16 seed.

Second-round NCAA Tournament Trends:

Of the 24 No. 1 seeds since 2002, 21 have advanced to the Sweet 16.
Of the 24 No. 2 seeds since 2002, 14 have advanced to the Sweet 16.
Of the 24 No. 3 seeds since 2002, 14 have advanced to the Sweet 16.
Of the 24 No. 4 seeds since 2002, 8 have advanced to the Sweet 16.
Of the 24 No. 5 seeds since 2002, 12 have advanced to the Sweet 16.
Of the 24 No. 6 seeds since 2002, 8 have advanced to the Sweet 16.
Of the 24 No. 7 seeds since 2002, 6 have advanced to the Sweet 16.
Of the 24 No. 8 seeds since 2002, 2 have advanced to the Sweet 16.
Of the 24 No. 9 seeds since 2002, 1 has advanced to the Sweet 16.
Of the 24 No. 10 seeds since 2002, 4 have advanced to the Sweet 16.
Of the 24 No. 11 seeds since 2002, 2 have advanced to the Sweet 16.
Of the 24 No. 12 seeds since 2002, 3 have advanced to the Sweet 16.
Of the 24 No. 13 seeds since 2002, 1 has advanced to the Sweet 16.
Of the 24 No. 14 (and 15-16) seeds since 2002, 0 have advanced to the Sweet 16.
All four No. 1 seeds have advanced to the Sweet Sixteen 7 times in last 11 years.
Amazingly, No. 6 seeds have beaten No. 3 seeds 57.1 percent of the time since 1996.

Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament Trends:

Of the 24 No. 1 seeds since 2002, 15 have advanced to the Elite Eight.
Of the 24 No. 2 seeds since 2002, 12 have advanced to the Elite Eight.
Of the 24 No. 3 seeds since 2002, 5 have advanced to the Elite Eight.
Of the 24 No. 4 seeds since 2002, 3 have advanced to the Elite Eight.
Of the 24 No. 5 seeds since 2002, 2 have advanced to the Elite Eight.
Of the 24 No. 6 seeds since 2002, 1 has advanced to the Elite Eight.
Of the 24 No. 7 seeds since 2002, 2 have advanced to the Elite Eight.
Of the 24 No. 8 seeds since 2002, 1 has advanced to the Elite Eight.
Of the 24 No. 9 seeds since 2002, 0 have advanced to the Elite Eight.
Of the 24 No. 10 seeds since 2002, 1 has advanced to the Elite Eight.
Of the 24 No. 11 seeds since 2002, 1 has advanced to the Elite Eight.
Of the 24 No. 12 seeds since 2002, 1 has advanced to the Elite Eight.
Of the 24 No. 13 seeds (and 14-16) since 2002, 0 have advanced to the Elite Eight.
All four No. 1 seeds have advanced to the Elite Eight just three times since 1996.

Final Four NCAA Tournament Trends:

Of the 24 No. 1 seeds since 2002, 8 have advanced to the Final Four.
Of the 24 No. 2 seeds since 2002, 7 have advanced to the Final Four.
Of the 24 No. 3 seeds since 2002, 4 have advanced to the Final Four.
Of the 24 No. 4 seeds since 2002, 2 have advanced to the Final Four.
Of the 24 No. 5 seeds since 2002, 2 have advanced to the Final Four.
Only one seed lower than No. 6 (George Mason) has advanced to the Final Four since 2002.
All four No. 1 seeds have never reached the Final Four since 1996.
Only once has no No. 1 seed reached the Final Four (2006) since 1996.

NCAA Championship Trends:

Of the 24 No. 1 seeds since 2002, 5 have advanced to the NCAA Championship.
Of the 24 No. 2 seeds since 2002, 3 have advanced to the NCAA Championship.
Of the 24 No. 3 seeds since 2002, 3 have advanced to the NCAA Championship.
Of the 24 No. 4 seeds since 2002, 0 have advanced to the NCAA Championship.
Of the 24 No. 5 seeds since 2002, 1 has advanced to the NCAA Championship.
No seed No. 6 or lower has advanced to the NCAA Championship since 1996.
A No. 1 seed has appeared in the NCAA Championship 7 out of the last 11 years