Reading lines

[springjk]

Wish someone had told me about 3 weeks ago that it was pointless. All you need to make money in college hoops this year is just go with the more obvious play and it will hit, regardless of who is on it.

Examples:

Today ---
SDSU +4 vs UNLV --- SDSU red hot and beat UNLV by 10 last time out. Playing to get off the bubble. About 61% of Public on SDSU

Temple -3.5 vs URI --- Big Service play and about 66% of public. Temple beat the by 22 a month ago and won by this number at URI. Plus its a ranked team vs unranked bubble team.

Kentucky -4.5 vs Tennessee --- about 60/40 on this one, but Kentucky potentially best team in the country. Was favored by 9.5 at home and are winners of 10 of last 11. Most people thought Tenny would be out against Miss last game. Maybe line was an overreaction to Bama covering and Tenny rolling Miss, so this one is debatable.

Cal/UW and Vandy/MST helped the books out some.

Yesterday---
Xavier -3.5 vs Dayton --- Close to 70% of public plus big time service play. Everyone pretty conscious of Dayton recent woes plus revenge on Xavier's mind. This HAD to be an overreaction to the Dayton blowout last time out. Dayton was 1-7 ATS previous 8 games. Xavier 20-11 ATS on the year.

Kansas State -2 vs Baylor --- Baylor was the wannabe sharp play of the day. Kansas State ranked in top 10 at close to a pk price. line didn't really budge, which would suggest even action, but i'm pretty certain majority on KST.

others easy covers were: Temple 64%, Illinois 62%, Tenny 70%, UTEP 72%, Cal 57%, ND 62%, Ohio 64%, UCSB 60%,
BYU/UNLV and SDSU/UNM games I guess the books made some of their money back (as well as UVA/Duke, KY/Bama, MD/GTech/MSU/Minn), but probably not nearly the amount of action on those games as the previous ones.

Thursday ---
Marquette +5 vs Villanova --- this one could be considered debatable, but considering the last 3 times these teams played each other were decided by a COMBINED 5 pts, this line is as generous as it gets. Majority was probably still on NOVA, so this is still debatable.

Texas -1 vs Baylor --- I don't even need tosay anything here. Baylor obv owned Texas. 67% of action on Baylor and line did essentially nothing.

NMST -5 vs SJST --- Past 3 or 4 games for NMST they have been a big fan of the public. This game was no different. This was another big time service play. Line did nothing. SJST is garbage, hence they lose by 21

other public hits were: WMU 60%, TT 62%, Akron 67%, AF 58%, LATech 68%, GaTech 67%, Florida 68%, Nevada 61%, and Cincy 58%

with the exception of UVA/BC, GTown/Cuse, & Miami/WF, most others were 50/50 action.

Wednesday ---
First game in weeks where the books realized they fuked up was SFAU game where spread went from -2 to -6, but still wasn't enough. about 79% on SFAU but not as higly bet as other games.

Ok State -7 vs OU --- another big service play and 70% of the public hit the cowboys and they went up 28-8. can't be too mad because the line 'seems' high, but no adjustment whatsoever and some books went to 6.5.

ND -1.5 vs Seton Hall --- this was again a big public fav at close to 70%. Line did very little if anything. everyone saw the Hall blow a 29 pt lead the night before in a 200pt + effort and knew they would be seom kind fo tired. throw in the 48 hours of constant "notre Dame is one of the last 4 teams in" talk and this was an obvious public play.


StJohns/Marq, Neb/Mizz, Lou/Cin all helped out the books, with all other games close to 50/50

Tuesday---
South Florida -7 vs Depaul --- Depaul blows and SFla supposedly a bubble team who has become a public darling lately with some quality home wins. Depaul hadn't covered in awhile and won a game SU in eons. 72% on USF.

Butler -7 vs Wright St --- not too mad because 7 seems a bit high, but about 65% on butler and no line move. game was at Butler, so basically calling it a -3.5 game.

most other games this day were 50/50


Monday---

not many games this day, but most glaring one was North Texas -1 vs Denver. about 67% hit this gimme, and books opened it giving NTx the +1 initially. A smoking hot Troy squad getting 5 pts was the biggest service play, and they won SU by 6. With the exception of STM/Zags, all other public plays hit.

Sunday---

A TON of public hits today, most notably St Marys 76%, Zags 70%, Troy 70%, Wofford 64%, UNI 64%, ODU 61%, WF 64%, Wisky 61%. The %s this day are probably a little skewed because the amount of wagers was likely not that high, but I do know that UNI and WISKY were big plays as well as several on Wake.

I could continue on and on and on, but I won't because honestly it is kind of making me mad. It just seems to me that the average Joe Schmo who is a casual fan can look at the majority of these games, and come out pretty decently ahead. And again, I know that the books always win and this and that yadda yadda yadda, but this is a farily substantial difference all the way around the board and as someone who has wagered on college for years, this is likely the first time I can recall this big of a discrepancy.

Maybe it all works itself out next week and then next few weeks when the tournament starts and more schmoes get in on the action, but as of right now I feel like a schmoe for not going for the most blatantly obvious plays these past few weeks.

I just can not for the life of me understand why, as a Bookmaker, you don't at least adjust the line SOMEWHAT in response to the action. Most of these plays had NO LINE MOVES.


Ok, that's it...rant over
</P>

[springjk]

and yes, i understand that the public has to win sometimes so spare me those comments please.

[sinch]

Its true that daily wagerers will tend to overkill the capping of a game, when it was as simple as the first look impression that ultimately turns out to have been the play. We have all fallen victim of that process lately, I'm sure.

[nyrangerslakings]

nice write up spring. So as of today, (sunday 3/13) who are the obvious choices??

[home dogs]

Big East Tourney this year
GT +2 (60%) vs WVA- Push
ND +5 (60%) vs WVA- ND covers
GT -3.5 (50%) vs Marq- GT cover
GT +5.5 (30%) vs Syr- GT cover
Mar +5 (40%) vs Nova- Marq cover
ND +2 (45%) vs Pitt- ND covers
Cincy +8.5 (55%) vs WVA- Cincy coves
SFLA +6.5 (60%) vs Gtwon- Gtown covers
St Johns (+4) 25% vs Marq- St Johns covers
Seton Hall +2.5 (30%) vs Notre Dame- ND covers
Cincy +6 (25%) vs Lville - Cincy covers
Depaul +7 (30%) vs SLFA- SFLA covers
St Johns +4 (25%) vs UCONN- St Johns covers
Providence +5.5 (40%) vs Seton Hall- Providence covers
Rutgers +8 (45%) vs Cincy- Rutgers Covers

Here is a nice sample size from a major conference that was on TV all week these are types of game that Joe Public likes to bet, you showed us how just taking the public is the way to go well here is evidence that is you are lookign for something you can find it....This is a sample size of 14 games if we remove the 50-50 matchup and had Joe public take the consesus pick each time he would of gone 4-8-1 thats not so hot, not to mention that Joe public loves favroties who are consesus well the favored consesusm picks went 2-8 in that tourney...

SO my point is when you have an idea in your head you cannot just go out and find the info to support your theory you need to gind an unbiased sample of games and research it so
4-8-1 for consesus picks
and 2-8 favorite consesus picks are very bad numbers be careful when you have an idea it must be researchers carefully and Unbiasedly....

[d107]

Reading lines is not pointless but you can't use it as the only method of handicapping. It's important to combine it with other capping factors IMO