((( Rookiees Tourney Total Of The Year )))

[THE_ROOKIEEE]

ON HEELS OF ANOTHER TOUGH BAD BEAT LAST NIGHT WITH THE W.V./XAVIER UNDER I AM BRINGING YOU MY TOURNEY TOTAL OF THE YEAR…. NOW ITS KNOWN FACT THAT THIS TOURNEY HAS BEEN ONE OF MY TOUGHESTS EVER AS I HAVE BEEN PLAYING CHUTES AND LADDERS WITH WINS AND LOSSES….BUT TO MOST THAT KNOW ME KNOW THAT MY TOTAL PLAYS HAVE BEEN MY BREAD AND BUTTER AND MY SIDE PLAYS HAVE STARTED TO CATCH UP WITH THE EARLY LOSSES…. I KNOW NOTHING DOCUMENTED IS MEANINGLESS HERE , NEVERTHELESS I WILL SAY THAT MY TOURNEY GAME OF THE YEARS AND TOTAL OF THE YEARS THE PAST 5 YEARS IVE KEPT TRACK OF ARE 7-3 … NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT MY TOTAL PLAYS ARE 4-1 IN THOSE WHILE THE SIDES 3-2….. SO HERE WE ARE YEAR 6 LETS GET RIGHT TOO IT!!!!!!


#3 STANFORD CARDINALS (28-7) VS #2 TEXAS LONGHORNS(30-6)

THIS WILL BE THE SINGLE MOST BIGGEST GAME OF THE DAY AS BOTH TEAMS ARE TRYING TO PROVE ITS WORTH AS THIS IS A ROUND FARTHER FROM LAST YEARS LONGHORN SQUAD AND THIS WILL BE THE CARDINALS FARTHEST TOURNEY PLAY SINCE 2001… TEXAS AND ITS SENSATIONAL TANDEM OF AUGUSTIN AND ABRAMS WILL BE FACING THE WEST COAST TWIN TOWER BROOK BROTHERS…NOW THIS GAME IS BEING HELD IN HOUSTONS RELIANT STADIUM APPX 160 MILES TO TEXAS UNIVERSITY SO YOU CAN BE SURE HALF OF THE 44000 PEOPLE WILL BE ROOTING FOR TEXAS..HISTORY TELLS US THAT TEAMS PLAYING CLOSE TO HOME IN THE POSTSEASON TEND TO HAVE A SLIGHT ADVANTAGE: ILL IN 2005, MICH ST. IN 2000, N.C. IN 98, FLO IN 93, AND NIT ACTION THE OTHER DAY AS OHIO ST CRUSHED CAL…INTERESTING THOUGHT IS THAT THE LAST TIME THAT TEXAS GOT TO THE FINAL FOUR ITS REGIONAL GAMES WERE IN SAN ANTONIO IN 2004 AND LAST YEARS CARDINAL TEAM LOST TO LOUISVILLE IN LEXINGTON KY…..SO DON’T THINK FOR ONE SECOND THAT PLAYING IN HOUSTON TODAY WILL BE DIFFERENT…. NOW FOR CARDINAL FANS JUST KNOW THAT 5000 ALUMNI HAVE MADE THE TRIP FOR THIS GAME TO TRY AND HELP OUT.... REMEMBER 5000 CARD FANS ARE LIKE 7500-10000 ON ANY GIVEN NIGHT.

KEYS TO THE GAME:

1) STANFORD HAS A BIG HEIGHT ADVANTAGE, AND IF IT CAN SLOW THE PACE AND GET THE BALL TO THE LOPEZES ITS CHANCES ARE BETTER…RANKED 5TH NATIONALLY IN REBOUNDING MARGIN THEY NEED TO DOMINATE THE BOARDS AND GET SECOND CHANCE SHOTS.

2) TEXAS HAS OUTSTANDING SHOOTERS AND IF THEY ARE HITTING THE THREE BALL THEN TEXAS WILL BE TOUGH TO BEAT.

3) DJ AUGUSTIN WHO IS CAPABLE OF BREAKING DOWN THE CARDINAL DEFENSE AND CREATING THE FAST PACED STYLE TEXAS LOVES TO PLAY AND DAMIEN JAMES FOR HIS ALL AROUND PLAY.

ANALYSIS:

IMO THIS IS GOING TO BE A SEA-SAW BATTLE BETWEEN THE STYLES OF PLAY….STANFORDS PACED GAME TO TEXAS RUNNING…..BUT ONE THING I HAVE NOTICED IN EACH OF THEIR RECENT GAMES AND DURING THE SEASON IS HOW THEY GET OUT FROM THE GATE….STANFORD SEEMS TO ALWAYS BE TRAILING COME FIRST HALF ALTHOUGH THESE TOURNEY TIME GAMES THEY HAVE IMPROVED AND HAVE TRIED TO ERASE THAT TREND. TEXAS LIKES TO GET OUT EARLY AND STAY AHEAD CUASE FOR SOME REASON THEY TEND TO GET TIRED OR PLAY LOOSELY ENABLING TEAMS TO MAKE COMEBACKS IN THE 2ND HALF….THEY BOTH HAVE WORKED ON THESE PROBLEMS SO LETS LOOK A LITTLE DEEPER IN THEIR LAST 5 GAMES FOR BOTH TEAMS AND GO TO REASONINGS AS TO MY TOTAL OF THE YEAR.



****** STANFORD ****** ****** OPPONENTS ******

SCORE - HALF - FG % - REB~ -- ~SCORE - HALF - FG % - REB
74.6 - 33.8 - 47.2% - 41.8~ -- ~66.6 - 30.0 - 38.3% - 33.8

****** TEXAS ****** ****** OPPONENTS ******

SCORE - HALF - FG % - REB~ -- ~SCORE - HALF - FG % - REB
73.2 - 39.2 - 45.8% - 36.6~ -- ~63.6 - 32.6 - 36.8% - 35.0

USING THE ABOVE LAST 5 GAME NUMBERS THIS WHAT THE GAME AVERAGE WOULD BE PLAY OUT TO BE:

*** STANFORD *** *** TEXAS ***

SCORE - HALF - FG% - REB~ -- ~SCORE - HALF - FG% - REB
69.1 - 33.2 - 42.0% - 38.4~ -- ~69.9 - 34.6 - 42.1% - 35.2

THE GAME ITSELF LOOKS TO BE A CLOSE GAME FROM BEGINNING TO END WHICH CONSTITUES THE 1.5-2 LINE FAVORED BY TEXAS….ANY ADVANTAGE WOULD BE THE MINIMAL PERCENTAGE FOR STANFORDS REBOUNDING AND TEXAS 3-POINT SHOOTING...SO I FIGURE THAT JUST OFFSETS EACH OTHER.....BUT WHAT IM HAVING TROUBLE WITH IS THE 139 AVERAGE BETWEEN THEM AND THE LISTED TOTAL AT 134….NOT TO MENTION THESE HEAVY OVER TRENDS GOING INTO THIS GAME:

STANFORD
1) NEUTRAL COURT TOTAL BETWEEN 130-134.5 ~~ 6-1 OVER
2) ALL NCAA TOURNEY GAMES SINCE 97 ~~ 13-4 OVER
3) AFTER ALLOWING 80 PTS LAST 3 YEARS ~~ 7-1 OVER

TEXAS
1) LAST 8 TOURNEY GAMES AS FAVORITE 0-6.5 ~~~ 6-2 OVER
2) AFTER NON CONFERENCE OPPONENT 40-29 OVER

SO MUCH POINTS TO THE OVER IN THIS GAME BUT IM JUST NOT BUYING IT AS THE LINE HAS MOVED EVEN FURTHER DOWN TO 133.5 AT SOME PLACES AWAY FROM THE 135 OPEN….ITS BEGGING YOU TO TAKE THE OVER ESPECIALLY AFTER 74.6 STANFORD AND 73.2 TEXAS LAST 5 AVERAGE POINTS IN TOURNEY PLAY????? GIMMIE A BREAK…IM NOT ONE OF THEM BEGGING FOR A MIRAGE AND GLITZ AND GLITTER. YOU SHOULDN’T BE EITHER…..GO WITH THE SMART MONEY TONIGHT AND TAKE THE UNDER IN THIS GAME AND LETS CASH OUT MY NCAABB TOURNEY TOTAL OF THE YEAR!!



*$$* 100* STANFORD/TEXAS UNDER 135 *$$*



POSITIVE TRENDS IN OUR FAVOR

STANFORD

1) SINCE 1997 CARDS ARE 1-5 UNDER AGAINST BIG 12 OPPENENTS
2) 2-10 UNDER AGAINST NON CONFERENCE OPPONENTS

TEXAS

1) 2-8 UNDER AT A NEUTRAL SITE WITH TOTAL IN BETWEEN 130-135

**** I MAY HAVE ONE OR TWO GAMES LATER AS WE GET CLOSE ****

[productofcb]

I wish you all the best. I'm impressed with your capping and I always follow your picks. I don't mean to be "that guy," and this has zero impact on capping abilities, but it's "cardinal (the color)" and not "cardinals". Please accept my apologies for correcting you, just thought you might like to know.

[fed11]

It looks like you did some research. Great writeup. Cappersmall is by far the best forum run by great people (Dr. Jack and his posse) and great work by cappers such as you rookie! Good luck to you and I am on board.

[fed11]

Originally Posted by productofcb

I wish you all the best. I'm impressed with your capping and I always follow your picks. I don't mean to be "that guy," and this has zero impact on capping abilities, but it's "cardinal (the color)" and not "cardinals". Please accept my apologies for correcting you, just thought you might like to know.

One of the answers to the trivia question "What team's mascots do NOT end in S? Stanford Cardinal, ND Fighting Sioux, Irish, Midshipman, etc.

[THE_ROOKIEEE]

Maybe I Should Just Say Palo Alto Reds Or South Bay Birds..... Bottom Line Is...we All Know What We Are Talking About

[SecretStash]

OMG


I almost choked...100*s

GL bro...hope u hit it for sure.


Come out on top of this one and smooth sail the rest of the weekend brotha


-stash

[Slyce]

St Johns Redmen

[THE_ROOKIEEE]

Thx Secret Stash And Slyce...... And For Those That Always Ask About How Much Each Star Is... Here Is My Breakdown Of My Bet Today

2- 2000.00 Waged At Las Vegas Hilton @ 135
2- 1500.00 Waged At Mirage @ 134
1-700.00 Waged At Bet Jam @ 134
1- 2000.00 Waged With Local @ 136

[goldengreek]

Gl Bro -- Ill Jump On It With U

[Duby99]

Im onboard!!

GL

[seth25]

GL,looks like a solid pick

[THE_ROOKIEEE]

Thx Double "g" Seth And Budman 99 ...... This Is My Only Bet For The Evening As This Is My Biggest Play For The Whole Season...though I Might Have One In The Nba For The Late Games...lets Cash This One First!!!!!

[PHILLYBIRDS20]

we got a 100 bomb under an a 5 over I am playing a 75bomb to push. lol I am jumping on with u Rookie bol bro

[THE_ROOKIEEE]

Welcome Aboard Philly..... Train Runs Thru All States On This One...bol Tonight!!!

[THE_ROOKIEEE]

ok Fellas ...im Going To Sit On My Total Of The Year .... But Here Were My Leans For Todays Card In No Paticular Order....

David/wisky Over 127
Memphis -5
Kan/villy Under 144.5
Stanford +2