Saturday's Don't Make Sense Play

[Keith]

first the re-cap. I am 4-2 for my last 6 posted plays, and 2-0 on the basketball "don't make sense" plays. I think I found another one for us tonight.

The Nevada Wolfpack (13-9, 6-2 in the WAC) plays New Mexico State tonight. New Mexico State is 11-12 on the year, and they are 5-5 in the WAC. N Mexico State is coming off of a 20 point loss to Utah State only 2 nights ago on 2/5. Back on January 8th, Nevada beat New Mex. State by 8 at New Mexico State. Yet today, at home, Nevada is only a 6.5 point favorite. You'd have to be an idiot to bet New Mexico State, right ???

WRONG !! The Aggies cover tonight. Here's why. Nevada has a field goal % of 41.7, while New Mex State is 46.2. New Mexico State shoots 40.9% from the 3 point line (impressive) while Nevada shoots only 28.4% from the 3 point line (not impressive). Both teams shoot over 70% from the free throw line. Nevada is 2-9 ATS at home (they also played, and lost on Thursday 2/5), and they are 1-7 ATS at home against teams with a losing record.

Aggies cover tonight.

Saturday's "don't make sense" play is New Mexico State +6.5.

[chucker]

GL w/ the D.M.S. play today Keith!

[Keith]

Originally Posted by chucker

GL w/ the D.M.S. play today Keith!

thanks chucker

[antny55]

I agreed with your other DMS's but this one scares me a little. I have to much respect for your DMS plays for the fact that you been hitting and seem to know your shit, so since Im not on the same page as you on this one Im not going to touch the other side and may jump in at half-time to ride out the win.

GL hope you hit it and keep up the winning streak.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by antny55

I agreed with your other DMS's but this one scares me a little. I have to much respect for your DMS plays for the fact that you been hitting and seem to know your shit, so since Im not on the same page as you on this one Im not going to touch the other side and may jump in at half-time to ride out the win.

GL hope you hit it and keep up the winning streak.

thanks man. This line just seems phony to me. Nevada should be a bigger favorite. You win by 8 on the road, and then are only 6.5 at home ???

FWIW--other plays I like today (but not necessarily as DMS plays) are Drexel, Ole Miss and call me a glutton for punishment, but I also like Florida State again as well.

[vikesfan]

Good Luck Keith Let's Cash It.

[Keith]

thanks guys. Line at 7 now.

[Midnight Rider]

rock on....

[Keith]

thanks guys. My Ole Miss lean bit it, but I am still lovin' the Aggies tonight.

[ttko]

nevada lost to la tech at home last time out. that may have a little something to do with the line (it probably doesn't). the line doesn't look that fishy to me, and i think nevada is vulnerable enough to take a fall tonight. good luck folks.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by ttko

nevada lost to la tech at home last time out. that may have a little something to do with the line (it probably doesn't). the line doesn't look that fishy to me, and i think nevada is vulnerable enough to take a fall tonight. good luck folks.

thanks man. But if they win on the road by 8, shouldn't they be at least an 8 point fave at home ????

[mickey]

gl to ya Keith.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by mickey

NMX should be favored in this,hope that its not a trap game for ya Keith!!

I don't think I'd go that far Mick. Nevada does have the better record (conference and overall) and did win at NM State by 8.

For the record, I got the Aggies +7.

[mickey]

I edited my reply b/c i was looking at the wrong game!! Was lookig at New Mexico/Unlv (duh).

[Keith]

Originally Posted by mickey

I edited my reply b/c i was looking at the wrong game!! Was lookig at New Mexico/Unlv (duh).

I was wondering--LOL

thanks Mick.