Saturday's Play !! (It Goes Early !)

Keith · #1 02-13-2010, 08:52 AM

first the re-cap. Won with Pittsburgh last night, making me 2-0 for the week, 14-8 for my last 22, and overall for the entire season, 19-14. I have mostly been playing (and winning with dogs) but I did have a favorite during the week with Arkansas crushing LSU. I like this one just as much, if not more.

Saturday's play (it goes at 12 noon est) is Drexel -13 to Delaware. Here's why:

Delaware is 7-18 on the year (3-11 conf.) with an RPI of 205. They have a team field goal percentage of less than 40% (its actually 39%), and a 3 point field goal percentage of less than 30% (its 29.8%). Meanwhile, Drexel is 14-12 on the year (9-5 conf and battling for the lead), with an RPI of 101. Drexel's team field goal percentage for the year is 41% and their 3 point field goal percentage is 32%. At home, Drexel shoots a very solid 45.2% frome the field. Drexel is 8-3 ATS at home as well.

But wait....there's more. Over their last 5 games, Drexel is shooting 41% and allowing opponents to shoot only 34.7%. Conversely, over their last 5 games, Delaware is shooting a pathetic 35% from the field, while allowing opponents to shoot 44.9%.

Key trend here. How a team performs ATS after 15 games into the season can tell alot about a team--and how to cap them in February and March. After 15 games, Drexel is 3-1 ATS against teams with losing records. To me, that means they beat (and cover) against the lousy teams (of which Delaware is one). Meanwhile, after 15 games, Delaware is a telling 1-3 ATS against teams with a winning record.

Want more ? OK then. I know that Chris Fouch is questionable for Drexel today. He is their second leading scorer and has played very well recently. I think he'll play, but bear in mind, he is not a starter, so it won't affect the team too much. Meanwhile, Delaware just recently lost 2 of their top 6 players for the season (McNeil and Brinkley), so you know they are hurting.

Last, but most certainly not least, Drexel is playing with double revenge, having lost the last 2 times they played Delaware, most recently a 4 point loss in Delaware on January 2nd. Drexel needs to keep up in the conference, and after this game they go on a tough 2 game road trip to Va Comm and Bradley. They will beat by Delaware by 20 points today.

Saturday's play is Drexel -13.

FalconFreak · #2 02-13-2010, 08:56 AM

gl today keith

The Frozen Pond · #3 02-13-2010, 08:56 AM

Good luck with the Dragons Keith.

Keith · #4 02-13-2010, 08:59 AM

thanks Falcon and Pond. The line is dropping because of the uncertainty with Fouch. No matter. They win by 20 with him and 15 without him.

chumly77 · #5 02-13-2010, 09:11 AM

Good luck buddy

Keith · #6 02-13-2010, 09:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chumly77

Good luck buddy

thanks chumly--you as well.

Line down to 12.5 now. Again, I believe due to uncertainty about Fouch. I would wait to play this as close to gametime as possible.

sweets · #7 02-13-2010, 09:17 AM

gl

jude's jets · #8 02-13-2010, 09:21 AM

Just to give a heads up keith, Drexel and delaware are big rivals, not sure if you are aware of that in Long Island. You will get Delaware's best effort today at home. Not trying to jinx or start an argument just trying to give you information good luck, on your play.

Keith · #9 02-13-2010, 09:22 AM

thanks sweets.

Fellas, for what it's worth, I don't feel like doing another lengthy write-up, but I absolutely LOVE Marshall tonight, getting 4 points from UAB. All the things I look for in a match-up (stats, trends, revenge, etc...) all point me to Marshall.

Keith · #10 02-13-2010, 09:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jude's jets

Just to give a heads up keith, Drexel and delaware are big rivals, not sure if you are aware of that in Long Island. You will get Delaware's best effort today at home. Not trying to jinx or start an argument just trying to give you information good luck, on your play.

Jude--isn't the game at Drexel ???