Share your expertise about the upcoming tournaments

[GFootsXtreme]

We have the conference and ncaa tournaments coming in the next few weeks. Please share your opinions about a few topics if you choose:

Weeks leading up to conference tournaments
1. When does a bad team totally give up and stop trying?
2. Do top 25 teams go soft or not give it their all in the time leading up?
3. What type of teams would be most motivated to win in this period?

During Conference Tournaments
4. Which type of teams will try the hardest?
5. When will a team already in the top seedings (say 1,2 or 3) still give it their all in the conference tourney?
6. What type of team will not try at all in these tournaments?

NCAA Tournament
7. How important is momentum going into the tournament?
8. Are the seeds intentionally set for upsets or do they mostly happen due to chance?
9. When capping the tournament games what matters most? (coaching, talent, seeding?)
10. When capping the tourney games, where do many cappers make their big mistake?

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Please feel free to answer as many or few of these as you choose. My point here is not to get specifics i.e. Kentucky will win but moreso share with each other capping knowledge and skills. I have a lot to learn about college hoops and know already that there are experts here that know what they are doing. Even for the experts though there is always more to learn so please go ahead and share your thoughts!

[TheHippieRipper]

Question 9:

I always take the 11&12 seeds + the points.

Usually 1-2 of them win outright. Last year 7-8 of them covered the spread.

Seems like to me that the spread is based on their seeding rather than their actual matchup

[TheHippieRipper]

7-8 should say 7 out of 8

[Agent Smith]

Q5 - I can see 'Cuse and Kansas going out fairly early in the conf tourneys, but Kentucky will play hard cause they have so many great freshmen - most likely their first and last time for a conf tourney. I think all potential 2,3,4 seeds play all out to stay on the top lines

[T100]

Originally Posted by TheHippieRipper

Question 9:

I always take the 11&12 seeds + the points.

Usually 1-2 of them win outright. Last year 7-8 of them covered the spread.

Seems like to me that the spread is based on their seeding rather than their actual matchup

this has been $$$$ for yrs, I play these trends every year and profit. Sadly I lose that profit elsewhere LOL

[TheHippieRipper]

It's as close to free $$$$$$ as you get in this industry.

[Yankee23]

Originally Posted by TheHippieRipper

It's as close to free $$$$$$ as you get in this industry.

Not uncommon to have 12 seeds favored over 5 seeds nowadays

[TheHippieRipper]

really? can you point out an instance when that happened?

[Yankee23]

Originally Posted by TheHippieRipper

really? can you point out an instance when that happened?

Off the top of my head I know that Zona (#12) opened as a favorite over Utah (#5) in last year's touney

[TheHippieRipper]

I wonder if someone has the odds archived? I think you're right about this. I took Utah thinking it was a mistake and that was the mistake

[GFootsXtreme]

There is no doubt that questions 2 and 3 are now in play and have been for several days now.

Michigan State....Penn State. MState is obv leaps and bounds better and was at home. Yet a motivated Penn State team that sucked all year and couldnt' win a conference game has suddenly won 3 of their last 5 games and is giving every big 10 team a run. Izzo said their performance sucked but we all know how good Izzo is, a smoke screen for not giving it their all. Why is Penn State trying so hard right now?

Seton Hall....Rutgers. Last night I checked around and every capper loved Rutgers at home getting points...line moved down from 4 or 5 to as low as 3 and yet seton played their heart out and walloped rutgers. Any thoughts on why SH was still so motivated?

Providence.....Pittsburgh. Same exact thing as Michigan State. Prov has lost most of their games lately and although they are a good team, Pittsburgh at home should have won that easily. Why was Providence motivated? Was Pittsburgh and Michigan State simply doing the minimum to "just" win the game?

LSU.....Old Miss. This one played out almost exactly to the line. I think it was LSU +12.5 and OMiss won by 13, exactly what the oddsmakers thought the power rating differential was...meaning (to me) that both teams played to their potential and the result was exactly as expected.

Thoughts on any of these?

[upinya83]

you can still pick your spots when playing 5 -12 games, 6 - 11 games, sometimes even 4 - 13 games.

so many upsets cause you get the higher end midmajor conference champs, teams that are usually hot right now and playing well, against lower end bcs conference teams, usually teams that are on a downswing and lost in conference tourney and down the stretch and not currently playing their best ball

the up and down streaks of hot and cold play are much more important in college hoops than any other sport imo - especially when you're playin a neutral court without a home crowd to help carry you through rough shooting

[GFootsXtreme]

i donated an award point to your comments upinya

that is exactly the kind of information i am hoping for and you are one of the long-timers here who has the knowledge to make everybody a little better

thx