Stoned Sweet Sixteen: Alliteration at its best

stoned.gambling · #1 03-25-2009, 06:50 PM

500$ Gonzaga +8.5
400$ Missouri +4.5

All for now.

My writeup for the Gonzaga play, as posted in my other "thread".

Gonzaga isn't a very physical or agressive team on defense, but they've been preparing for this game since the brackets were announced. They will be ready for North Carolina, and although Ty Lawson, who is not 100% playing with a foot injury, has the ability to control a game, Xavier will have a plan for controlling him, enough to keep them in the game. To add, on the season Gonzaga is allowing opponents to score only 62 points per game, 10 points less than North Carolina's 72.

Call me crazy, but my opinion is that Gonzaga is nearly as good offensively, if not just as good, as North Carolina. On the season, Gonzaga is shooting .490% from the field, .395 from three point range and .718% from the FT line compared to North Carolina's, .481%, .387, .764%, respectively. Yes, Gonzaga's strength of schedule has been weaker than North Carolinas, but they still have played 11 games vs. teams in the top 50, winning 7 and losing four; while North Carolina has only played two more than Gonzaga, winning 10 and losing 3.

Expect Gonzaga to attack, and annoy, Lawson and Hansborough all game, hopefully getting them into foul trouble early. This is only one game, and it's March Madness so anything can happen. North Carolina is indeed the better team, so it will be tough for Gonzaga to take a straight up win, so i'll be taking the 8.5 point cushion, in what I assume to be a fairly tight game from start to finish. I feel this line should be -5, but we are getting a few extra points because it is North Carolina. They blow out everybody, don't they? So I expect the majority of the public to be on North Carolina. North Carolina played the first two games of March Madness at home, and will not put up similar numbers vs. a very talented, under-rated Gonzaga team, in a more hostile environment.

1st half prediction: Gonzaga 48 - North Carolina 42
Full game prediction: North Carolina 89 - Gonzaga 86

(take the over as well. there are too many outstanding offensive players not too, and I feel this game may very well go to overtime, in what I expect to be one of the best games of the year to watch.)

A writeup for Missouri is soon to come.

TN TITAN Fan In STL · #2 03-25-2009, 07:14 PM

Solid Write-up And Good Luck

Romanowski · #3 03-25-2009, 07:20 PM

awesome

stoned.gambling · #4 03-25-2009, 08:16 PM

Missouri +4.5

Missouri and Memphis square off in what should be a very close game. Memphis and Missouri are two of only thee NCAA teams to reach 30 wins this year; with Memphis winning 33 and losing 3 and Missouri winning 30 and losing 6 (Duke was the third team with 30 wins and 6 losses).

Missouri goes into this game with a strong 6-3 record versus top 25 teams, with their most recognized wins coming against USC, Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma and most recently Marquette. Memphis, on the other hand, is only 1-2 vs. top 25 teams Ranked teams; beating Gonzaga, but losing to Georgetown and Syracuse. As a side note, Missouri is 11-5 vs. top 50 teams, while Memphis is only 3-3.

I could go player for player and discuss why Missouri is the better side in this game, but I am extremely lazy; so all I will say is Missouri has a very solid, distributing offense, as well as an oustanding defense to go along with a coach, who has been able to prepare them well enough versus other ranked teams this season; and should have his team ready for this game tommorow.

Missouri's only weakness is free throw shooting, but luckily for them, Memphis is not much better. To beat Missouri by more then five, Memphis will need to be lights out from three point range and at the free throw line; a tough task for a team shooting only .329% from 3 point range and .699% from the FT line.

These teams are fairly even in the front and back court, but I expect Missouri to be better prepared and pull out a three point win. The public is most likely all over Memphis, but I will not fall for the trap, as this Memphis teams 27 game winning streak will come to an end in their toughest matchup of the season. If Memphis does win, it will come off a buzzer beater basket.

Not much of a write-up, but there really is not much to talk about. Missouri is the better all around team, with much more experience versus better teams (this season).This play is gold, goodluck if you play it.

Missouri will do what it does best, come out strong driving to the basket whenever they can, and get back and force turnovers.

1st half: Memphis 36 -Missouri 38
Final: Memphis 67- Missouri 70