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  #1  
Old 01-21-2019, 11:45 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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System Plays & My own plays...

Little background. I first started handicapping in about 1980. I was a software developer and database analyst and people kept bugging me about writing programs and databases to help them pick games. That's how I got started handicapping myself...
I have always been a technical handicapper. the only newsletters I ever used were Gavazzi (I see he's still around). Mike Lee (don't know what happened to him...) and Technical report by gold sheet. (internet killed it)

I ran across some of my old basketball stuff and found some of Gavazzi's angles on his site. I am retired now, so to kill some boredom I decided to see if I could get together enough brain power to get these queries going. Not that much data required. Keying in the daily schedule (150 games Sat) was the hardest part.


Anyway, I ran it the last 3 days with good results except for Saturday. Too many picks.And about half of them were NC [email protected], coppin state, Winthrop etc.

I know a lot of you have been wondering about Coppin St. And how about that Neb-Omaha .
I couldn't get it ready by sunday or Monday, but I will post those results and will post Tuesdays results before tip off.

Handicapping seems to have changes a lot since I left about 18 yrs ago. Internet was still not widely used.

But, if you like them, I will try to put them up every day.
so , here we go.
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Old 01-21-2019, 11:58 PM
jim1701 jim1701 is online now
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ty for you good info and help. Welcome to the Mall! w00t!!
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Old 01-22-2019, 12:28 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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Sunday's plays & results...

because I use queries, I will have Home Plays and Away Plays.
My plays are Home ON, Home Fade, away ON, away FADE

MistaFlava angle using assist/TO ratio. Only posted 5 days about 11 years ago. then stopped.

Flava #1 HOME
Iowa -9 WON
Neb Oma -4' LOST

Fiava #1 AWAY
IONA -2 WON

Gavazzi #2 AWAY … Offensive Opportunist
NONE

Gavazi #2 HOME
Iowa WON
Utah -4 WON
Neb Oma WON

Gavazzi #3 AWAY … Offensive Dandy
NONE

Gavazzi #3 HOME
Neb Oma -4' WON

Gavazzi #4 AWAY … Defensive Dandy
NONE

Gavazzi #4 HOME
Marquette -4 WON

Gavazzi #5 Away … RATs
NO PLAYS

Gavazzi #5 HOME
NONE

Gavazzi #6 AWAY … BAD RATS. He called it Off. Oalfs. I changed it. YUCH!
NONE

Gavazzi #6 HOME
IOWA -9 WON

Gavazzi #7 Away & HOME … Defensive Duds
NONE & NONE

Gavazzi #8 AWAY … Offensive Duds
NONE

Gavazzi #8 HOME …
IONA WON

OK...I took some of his systems and tightened them up and adjusted them a little. Just for winnings sake...I mirrored some others. His were skewed toward favorites, I think. Tried to give the the unfortunates some fade opportunites.
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Old 01-22-2019, 12:59 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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Monday Gavazzi system plays...

Flava...
#1 AWAY
Mich St -4' ... WON

#2 AWAY
Va Tech +4' … LOST

GAVAZZI … SWAC & MEAC fans are gonna' love this slate...

#2 HOME
Mich St -8' … WON
Liberty -18 … WON

#2 AWAY
Va Tech +4' … LOST

#3 HOME
N Fla -5 … LOST
Lipscomb - ?? … WON

#3 AWAY
Creighton -1' … WON

#4 HOME
Prarie View -4 … WON

#5 HOME
NC -4 … WON

#5 AWAY
Ia. STATE +5 … WON

#6 HOME
Winthrop -20' … WON
Beth-Cook -11' … WON
Presbyterian -4 … WON

#6 AWAY
NC A&T -9' ...LOST

#7 HOME
Southern -7' WON

#7 AWAY
MT ST Marys +7' … LOST

#8 HOME
Beth-Cook -11' … WON
Tex Southern -11' … LOST
NCA&T -9. LOST
Southern -7 … WON

#8 AWAY
NONE
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Old 01-22-2019, 01:31 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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MY systems for Monday..,

Didn't have queries tested enough to do sunday…
Here are MOndays…

#9 HOME PLAY ON...
N Fla -5 … LOST

#9 HOME FADE …
Presbyterian -4 … WON
St Francis (NY) +5 ..WON
American/BU ...PPD
Stetson +10' ...LOST
Harvard -9' … WON
Rob MOrris +3 … WON

#9 AWAY PLAY ON
Maryland +8' … LOST
Wagner +3 … LOST

#9 AWAY FADE
NC -4 … WON

#10 HOME PLAY ON
N fla -5 … LOST

#10 HOME FADE
Chreighton -1' … WON
Stetson +10' … LOST

#10 AWAY PLAY ON
NONE

#10 AWAY FADE
NC -4 … WON
Cent Conn. -3 … LOST
Alcorn St +3' … WON
Southern -7' … WON

#11 HOME PLAY ON
Mich St -8' WON
Idaho St +3 … LOST
Prarie View -4 ...WON
Tx Southern -11' ...LOST

#11 HOME FADE
Kennesaw St +27' … LOST
Amer/BU … PPD
ST Francis (NY) +5 … WON
Harvard -9' … WON

#11 AWAY PLAY ON
MARIST -1 … WON
Maryland +8' … LOST

#11 AWAY FADE
Alcorn st +3' … WON
Southern +7' … WON
NC Central -4' … WON

#12 HOME PLAY ON
N fla -5 … LOST

#12 HOME FADE
Stetson +10 ...LOST

#12 AWAY ON
Jackson State +11' WON

#12 AWAY FADE
NC -4 … WON
Prarie View -4 … WON

C. Conn. -3' … LOST
Alcorn st +3' … WON
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Old 01-22-2019, 01:36 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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Will try to have tomorrows plays up early...

One thing about these...since they are based on statistics, a lot of them have some of the same plays...Multiple picks are good...
One thing though...win or lose these things are POLITICALLY CORRECT.
Right NC Central fans ???

back tomorrow.
uh make that later today ...
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Old 01-22-2019, 09:07 AM
TommyAlaska TommyAlaska is offline
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Thanks for sharing this as I am always intrigued by these systems. It looks like you are winning more than losing. I will keep following as this evolves.
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Old 01-22-2019, 11:29 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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thx Tommy...

I am fixin to post these for Tue. here directly. Just a word of caution first.
These are stat systems. they will point you to the team that is statistically superior in some ways. Unfortunately, that means most of them are favorites. As the season wears on, those lines will grow.

example, Va maybe in for a letdown after big game on road at Duke. On the other hand they lost. Ala beat UT on road in big rivalry game. The sharp money will probably be on the other side of some of these.


Check out some of the more experienced handicappers on here also. Knight, Golden Greek and some of the others. Gavazzi's systems have done a lot better than mine. That's why he gets the big bucks and his name is a household word among bettors. Oh well, here we go...GL, hope they do well for ya.
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Old 01-22-2019, 12:10 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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Tuesday 1/22 system plays...

MistaFlava A/TO Ratio System

#1 HOME - Niagara -3'
#1 AWAY - NO PLAYA

Gavazzi's systems

#2 HOME - Butler -1, Virginia -22
#2 AWAY - Miss St +6'

#3 AWAY - Duke -13'
#3 HOME - Kentucky -6'

#4 AWAY - Tex Tech +1
#4 HOME - Akron -6', Virginia -22

#5 AWAY - Buffalo -8, Duke -13'
#5 HOME - Virginia -22

#6 AWAY - Niagara -3'
#6 HOME - NO PLAYS

#7 AWAY - NONE
#7 HOME - NONE

#8 AWAY - NONE
#8 HOME - NONE

Southern Coach Stat System Plays...

#9 PLAY ON HOME - NONE
#9 FADE HOME, PLAY ON Auburn -8, Tex Tech +1
#9 ON AWAY, NONE
#9 FADE AWAY, PLAY ON Northwestern PK, Fresno -7

#10 ON HOME, Akron -6'
#10 FADE HOME, PLAY ON AUBURN -8
#10 ON AWAY - NONE
#10 FADE AWAY, PLAY ON Northwestern PK

#11 ON HOME, NONE
#11 FADE HOME, PLAY ON Ole Miss +1
#11 ON AWAY - NONE
#11 FADE AWAY, PLAY ON Northwestern PK, Kent +2', Ball St -8', No Illinois +8

#12 ON HOME, Northwestern PK, Akron -6'
#12 FADE HOME , PLAY ON Auburn -8
#12 ON AWAY - NONE
#12 FADE AWAY, PLAY ON Fresno -7, East Michigan -1'

OK Good Luck.
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Old 01-22-2019, 04:11 PM
Lamar Mundane Lamar Mundane is offline
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Interesting...thanks for posting and Good luck sir!
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Old 01-22-2019, 05:18 PM
twister78 twister78 is offline
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Thx for posting...lets start winning...
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Old 01-23-2019, 08:41 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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got a couple of problems...

Wednesday slate has 45 games....

Problem #1. I found an error in the way I was querying Mistaflava's Assist/turnover ratio games. it was having 1 ro 3 plays per night.
I fixed the query. now for wed, it has 9 away games and 7 home games.
In his 5 to 7 posts I read from around 2007, he had a lot of games. They were losing. His solution was to only use his plays where they had a winning ATS record. I will try to access ats records and include them with his plays. For wed his plays look to be around 16. I will modify query to add teams ATS w/l record to them

Problem #2. Wed plays. Wed slate has 45 games listed. the Gavazzi systems have won so far.Mon his angles had 18 plays.I think my systems had 21.
a lot of duplicates in mine. some in Gavazzi's.


Wednesday's 45 game slate , Gavazzi's systems look like they will have 24 games. My systems right now look they will generate around 47. 21 of them will be duplicates.Will try to get ats records for home and away as well as entire season.
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Old 01-23-2019, 08:59 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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I used to a Long Long time ago...

in the 80s before the internet age and probably before some of you were born.
I would keep weekly sagarin ratings for football and basketball. I would compare Week 1 ratings to the current week for each team to see how much vegas had adjusted to teams winning.losing vs. spread. This would keep me off certain games that no longer had VALUE. If anyone has saved a copy of sagarin ratings from early November, could you post it in this thread for me. It would be very helpful. If not, that is ok.
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Old 01-23-2019, 01:56 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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wed 1/23 ... Mistaflava assist/to ratio plays...

search his posts again by searching username "Mistaflava". He only had 5 posts or so on this in late January and early February 2007. The last post he advised to filter it by only using teams with positive ats records. so from now on will do that. He was quite a handicapper, btw, I read some of his football & basketball writeups. Would recommend any serious handicapper search those posts out and read them. You can learn a lot about handicapping from a guy like that...anyway, here we go...

Mistaflava

#1 away - DePaul, Oklahoma, lehigh
#1 Home - loyolls ,MD, geo Washington

Gavazzi

#2 Away - Tennessee
#2 Home - colgate

#3 away - Mass Lowell, Lehigh, Tennessee,depaul

#3 home ------

#4 away - uc Irvine, vcu, Wisconsin,
#4 home - Nevada, Houston, marquette

#5 away - Tennessee,purdue,
#5 home - Nevada

#6 away FADE - PLAY ON cent ark, drake
#6 home FADE - PLAY ON Binghamton, mass Lowell,

#7 away FADE - Play ON bucknell
#7 Home FADE - --------------

#8 AWAY FADE - PLAY ON rhode is, hou Baptist
#8 Home FADE - PLAY ON sam Houston st


He had multiple plays on the following … Tennessee (3), Nevada (2), Mass Lowell (2)


if you play any of these, I would recommend using them in conjunction with other handicapping information.
Good luck...
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Old 01-23-2019, 02:19 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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My systems for Wednesday...

47 plays with a lot of duplicates. I need to whittle these down some. am working on that. IF I don't list a category, it had no plays

#9 AWAY - La Salle,
#9 HOME - LSU , Cent ark

#10 HOME - Vanderbilt
#10 Home FADE - PLAY ON N Iowa, valapraiso, MD BC, Loyola MD, stony brook, American, L beach St
#10 AWAY - Cent Fla, Missouri, sam hstn st, la sale
#10 away FADE - Houston

#11 HOME - Fla atl
#11 HOME FADE - ON ill st, American, Richmond, N iowa,
#11 Away - Lasalle,
#11 away FADE - ON cent ark, cal poly

#12 Home - Marquette, Hawaii, lamar, Illinois
#12 away - Geo Mason
#12 away FADE - ON Houston, LSU, cent ark, Stephen f auston,

#13 HOME - Fla atl, Miss valley st

#13 home FADE - ON American, ill state, N iowa


Bunch of duplicates today...Lasalle-3, LSU-2, cent ark - 3,L beach st - 2, American - 4, Valparaiso - 2, Marquette - 3, N iowa - 4, Loyola MD - 2, Ill St - 2, Houston - 2, fla atl - 2
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Old 01-23-2019, 02:24 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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One more little diddy...

this is the time of the season when dogs start barking...
Home lines start creeping higher. Home dogs playing conference revenge games & teams getting road weary, etc.
also, a system that is being tracked on another thread Unranked HOME (mostly dogs) vs Ranked roadies. Its had a bit of a slide lately, but went 4-1 last night. wouldn't recommend betting against that the rest of the regular season.

GL all...
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Old 01-23-2019, 04:02 PM
Big Country Big Country is offline
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So I assume any team you list is a play? Duplicates are just stronger plays? Thanks. Juat trying ti understand.
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Old 01-23-2019, 05:46 PM
BN727 BN727 is online now
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Ditto what BC said, little confusing.

may be better just to list your plays
and keep track of the systems
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2018-19 Records
MLB str8s = 64-72
MLB Parlays = 3-11
NHL P/Os = 25-33
NHL str8s = 194-166
NHL Parlays = 13-25
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Old 01-23-2019, 08:32 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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thanks for the feedback...

yeah a lot less typing too.
all the plays are play on...

and In my plays the more the stronger the play...
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Old 01-23-2019, 11:37 PM
jim1701 jim1701 is online now
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Hey SC, ty for you input....
I also used Sagarin back in da day...in combo with looking at past odds comparing to current odds.....I had this from 6-28-18 : may help you...may not...good luck...just fyi...w00t!

2019 NCAA Tournament Odds


TEAM : Odds to win Championship :: Odds to Make the Final 4



Duke 5-1 5-4
Kentucky 5-1 5-4
Kansas 6-1 5-4
Oregon 7-1 5-1
Nevada 12-1 3-1
North Carolina 18-1 9-2
Michigan State 20-1 9-2
Virginia 20-1 9-2
UCLA 20-1 7-1
Villanova 30-1 7-1
Gonzaga 30-1 7-4
Auburn 30-1 10-1
West Virginia 30-1 7-1
Michigan 40-1 7-1
Florida 40-1 10-1
Wichita State 40-1 10-1
Indiana 40-1 10-1
Purdue 50-1 12-1
Tennessee 50-1 12-1
Syracuse 50-1 12-1
Texas Tech 60-1 15-1
Florida State 60-1 15-1
Virginia Tech 60-1 15-1
Western Kentucky 75-1 75-1
Arizona State 80-1 20-1
Cincinnati 80-1 20-1
Ohio State 80-1 20-1
Clemson 80-1 20-1
Miami 80-1 20-1
NC State 80-1 20-1
Texas 80-1 20-1
Texas A&M 80-1 20-1
Kansas State 80-1 20-1
Maryland 100-1 25-1
Vanderbilt 100-1 25-1
Mississippi State 100-1 25-1
louisville 100-1 25-1
LSU 100-1 25-1
Baylor 100-1 25-1
Penn State 100-1 25-1
Wisconsin 100-1 25-1
Xavier 100-1 25-1
St. John's 100-1 25-1
Butler 100-1 25-1
TCU 100-1 25-1
Arizona 100-1 25-1
Arkansas 100-1 25-1
Alabama 100-1 25-1
Notre Dame 100-1 25-1
St. Joseph's 100-1 100-1
Seton Hall 200-1 50-1
Iowa State 200-1 50-1
Missouri 200-1 50-1
San Diego State 200-1 50-1
Illinois 200-1 50-1
Providence 200-1 50-1
Southern California 200-1 50-1
Houston 200-1 50-1
Creighton 200-1 50-1
Oklahoma 200-1 50-1
Saint Mary's 200-1 50-1
Minnesota 200-1 50-1
SMU 200-1 50-1
Memphis 200-1 50-1
South Carolina 200-1 50-1
Marquette 200-1 50-1
Georgetown 200-1 50-1
Washington 200-1 50-1
Rhode Island 200-1 50-1
Utah 200-1 50-1
Buffalo 200-1 200-1
Marshall 200-1 200-1
Northern Iowa 200-1 200-1
Richmond 200-1 200-1
Utah State 200-1 200-1
New Mexico State 200-1 200-1
Charleston 200-1 200-1
DePaul 200-1 200-1
Dayton 200-1 200-1
St. Bonaventure 200-1 200-1
VCU 200-1 200-1
Oregon State 300-1 75-1
Northwestern 300-1 75-1
Iowa 300-1 75-1
Nebraska 300-1 75-1
Goergia 300-1 75-1
Oklahoma State 300-1 75-1
UConn 300-1 75-1
Boise State 300-1 75-1
Boston College 300-1 75-1
New Mexico 300-1 75-1
UNLV 300-1 75-1
Davidson 300-1 75-1
Valparaiso 400-1 400-1
Northeastern 400-1 400-1
Montana 400-1 400-1
Georgia State 400-1 400-1
Bradley 400-1 400-1
Colorado State 400-1 400-1
Wright State 400-1 400-1
Furman 400-1 400-1
Grand Canyon 400-1 400-1
Middle Tennessee 400-1 400-1
Southern Illinois 400-1 400-1
Toledo 400-1 400-1
Louisiana 400-1 400-1
Belmont 400-1 400-1
Missouri State 400-1 400-1
La Salle 400-1 400-1
Tulane 400-1 400-1
Pennsylvania 400-1 400-1
Western Michigan 400-1 400-1
UAB 400-1 400-1
Vermont 400-1 400-1
Stanford 500-1 125-1
Illinois State 500-1 100-1
Loyola-Chicago 500-1 100-1
UCF 500-1 100-1
Wake Forest 500-1 100-1
BYU 500-1 100-1
Temple 500-1 100-1
Georgia Tech 500-1 100-1
Colorado 500-1 100-1
Ole Miss 500-1 100-1
Saint Louis 500-1 100-1
Fresno State 500-1 100-1
Harvard 500-1 100-1
Old Dominion 500-1 100-1
Rutgers 500-1 100-1
Tulsa 500-1 100-1
UC Davis 1000-1 1000-1
South Dakota 1000-1 1000-1
UNC Greensboro 1000-1 1000-1
San Diego 1000-1 1000-1
North Texas 1000-1 1000-1
Iona 1000-1 1000-1
East Tennessee State 1000-1 1000-1
Wofford 1000-1 1000-1
San Francisco 1000-1 1000-1
UC Irvine 1000-1 1000-1
UTSA 1000-1 1000-1
Kent State 1000-1 1000-1
South Dakota State 1000-1 1000-1
Massachusetts 1000-1 1000-1
Liberty 1000-1 1000-1
Yale 1000-1 1000-1
Rider 1000-1 1000-1
George Mason 1000-1 1000-1
Ball State 1000-1 1000-1
Louisiana Tech 1000-1 1000-1
Florida Gulf Coast 1000-1 1000-1
Southern Miss 1000-1 1000-1
South Alabama 1000-1 1000-1
Northern Kentucky 1000-1 1000-1
Monmouth 1000-1 1000-1
Washington State 1000-1 1000-1
Princeton 1000-1 1000-1
Cal State Fullerton 1000-1 1000-1
Stephen F. Austin 1000-1 1000-1
Jacksonville State 1000-1 1000-1
Indiana State 1000-1 1000-1
Ohio 1000-1 1000-1
Eastern Michigan 1000-1 1000-1
North Dakota State 1000-1 1000-1
Miami (Ohio) 1000-1 1000-1
Towson 1000-1 1000-1
Weber State 1000-1 1000-1
Georgia Southern 1000-1 1000-1
Bucknell 1000-1 1000-1
Illinois-Chicago 1000-1 1000-1
Seattle 1000-1 1000-1
Texas State 1000-1 1000-1
Duquesne 1000-1 1000-1
Utah Valley 1000-1 1000-1
Milwaukee 1000-1 1000-1
Hawaii 1000-1 1000-1
Wyoming 1000-1 1000-1
William and Mary 1000-1 1000-1
Albany 1000-1 1000-1
UNC Wilmington 1000-1 1000-1
California 1000-1 1000-1
UCSB 1000-1 1000-1
Cleveland State 1000-1 1000-1
Portland 1000-1 1000-1
UMBC 1000-1 1000-1
Central Michigan 1000-1 1000-1
Pittsburgh 1000-1 1000-1
Oakland 1000-1 1000-1
Evansville 1000-1 1000-1
Texas-Arlington 1000-1 1000-1
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Old 01-23-2019, 11:49 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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thx Jim

everything helps... appreciate it
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Old 01-24-2019, 03:05 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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SYSTEMs for Thu 1/24

72 game slate for Thu. look out.
Gavazzi's systems had 28 plays
My systems had 61. Of course, if they went 40-21 maybe not so bad.
I have tried to get these plays down. will keep trying.
a lot of duplicates .
some opposite plays. if plays on both sides, CANCEL OUT.

Beware these. use in conjunction with other handicapping info.

OK, here we go...
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Old 01-24-2019, 03:28 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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Mistaflava

ALL PLAYs are the side the system likes.

1A Citadel
1H BYU, Radford, Hampton, USC, Oregon

Gavazzi

2H Iowa, Ore St, Cincinnati, Oregon, Radford, La Monroe, Hampton
3A Michigan st, NC State
3H Austin Peay , N Florida, S Dak St,
4A Texas st
4H Syracuse
5A Texas St, Cincinnati
6AF Morehead st
6HF SIUE
7AF S Dak St, SE Missouri, Mercer, Ore State
7H Monmouth, E Washington, E Illinois
8AF Rice, morehead St,
8HF CS Fullerton

Southern Coach ...All teams listed are the side to PLAY ON

9AF Santa Clara, Temple, Ore State
9A Cent Conn, Jacksonville, Wagner
9HF UAB, S Utah, Northeastern, Presbyterian, Memphis, Tx-Arlington, Citadel, Monmouth, SIUE,

9H Chicago St, N Florida, USC

10A Jacksonville
10AF S Dak ST, Ore State
10HF SIUE, Tx-Arlington, Monmouth, Northeastern, UC Santa Barbara
10H Chicago St, USC, N Florida, Hampton
11A LIU-Brooklyn, tenn State
11AF IPFW, Ore State
11H Chicago st, Byu, La Monroe, Cincinnati, Iowa
11HF Idaho, Monmouth, Memphis
12AF Rice, S Dak St, Mercer,
12HF S Utah, Tx-Arlington
12H Hampton, Austin Peay, Chicago St, Mercer, N Florida
13A LIU-Brooklyn, Tenn St
13H Chicago St
13AF Radford, Temple, Ore State,
13HF Memphis, Idaho, Monmouth, SIUe

GL all...
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  #24  
Old 01-25-2019, 12:58 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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ok...seems like so far I have created a bunch of systems with way too many plays that went 27-32 today by my count and had numerous plays on both sides of games and bunches of dups. A veritable SQUARES DELIGHT.

Gavazzi's stuff continued to win going 18-10 by my count.
Mistaflava's stuff has veen a mixed bag also...
I think what I am going to do is continue to post Gavazzi's stuff. and analyze the stuff I have been doing. when I started handicapping basketball in '83 there were no personal computers (well, PC Jr for $2,000 bucks), no internet and only 136 teams in division 1. Looking back, hard to believe I actually won doing this stuff then. Things have really changed. see you tomorrow.
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Old 01-25-2019, 04:20 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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OK, I have foiund a way to filter them that reduces the plays and filters out losers. The Mistaflava angles went from 3-3 to 3-0. My systems went down from 27-32 to 12-8.
That is still a high number but, manageable I think. It will reduce the Saturday games I have to manage to about 40 from 120, I think. I may post those in 2 posts an early one before 11AM and a late post before 6PM.
I will continue to track these systems as long as they continue to win. However, this forum has a lot of really good information on it and I don't want to post something that is going to lose.
back later with Fridays plays...only 7 games. there won't be many...
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