For those who play first 1/2 spreads some good stats

[Buckeyes of Texas]

I have been tracking first 1/2 spreads of every college game for the past 3 weeks and have come up with this info.

Home Favorites:
Cover:
-5, 78% of the time home fav covers
-6, 68%
-8, 70%
-10, 82%

Home fav don't cover:
-2, 57% of the time the dog covers
-2.5, 58%
-3, 55%
-4, 71%
-4.5, 74%
--------------------------------------------------
Away favorites:
Cover:
-.5, 65% of the time away fav covers

Away fav don't cover:
-1.5, 70% of the time the home dog covers
-2, 70%
-4, 68%
-6, 87%

Yesterday I played 30 of these 1/2 times spreads just to see how it would work and I hit 21 wins, 2 ties, and 7 losses out of 30 games. Thats a 70% winning percent. Not bad!

If you decide to use this info for today's games the first 1/2 plays would be:
UMass -10 (home fav)
Ill St. -5 (home fav)
Idaho St. +1.5 (home dog)
Ala. -.5 (away fav)

Use at your own risk...but these are my plays.......

gl today-----BuckEyes of Texas (BET) ------------------------

[QuadzillaXXX]

Nice job man!

GL

[Ron Mexico]

The only problem is Ill St went from -5 which they cover 78% of the time to -4.5 which the dont cover 74% of the time. Now what?

[Big Tex]

nice run BET
GL today

[Buckeyes of Texas]

Originally Posted by Ron Mexico

The only problem is Ill St went from -5 which they cover 78% of the time to -4.5 which the dont cover 74% of the time. Now what?

Ron, if I'm offered the -5 and lock in at that time then I use that line in my calculations. I don't go back to see if the line changes after I locked in. What ever the lines are the first time I look them up is what I use in my % calculations. I guess I could of had another category listing of line changes to see what covers after a line change but I didn't.

Thats why I said use at your own risk because a line change my move the the pick from a good % to a bad %.
Maybe in my 7 losses yesterday the line moved.........

BuckEyes of Texas

[Grizzled_Veteran]

Thanks for the Good info.I will keep a eye on this.

[Big Tex]

Bama's a winner

[Buckeyes of Texas]

Originally Posted by Big Tex

Bama's a winner

big tex you can also add

Umass and Idaho St. as winners

one more to go (ILL St-5) for a perfect 4-0 today....
BuckEyes of Texas

[Grizzled_Veteran]

Originally Posted by Buckeyes of Texas

big tex you can also add

Umass and Idaho St. as winners

one more to go (ILL St-5) for a perfect 4-0 today....
BuckEyes of Texas

Great Job TEX..

[Buckeyes of Texas]

I finish at 3-1 (75%) for the day. I'll take it.

the only lost was a line change from -5 to -4.5.

To Ron Mexico. I guess if there's a line change you need to go with the line change, but I already locked in the -5 for Ill St. before the line change.

When the line change to -4.5 for Ill St. then that change suggests to go with the dog, who covered.

As with Saturday's games (100+) it hard to follow every line change all day long thats why as soon as all the 1/2 lines are out I go with it and stay with it.

I know this system isn't perfect, but if I can hit 70-75% of my picks I'm sticking with it.
BuckEyes of Texas

[Bisket]

seems like it would be best to just avoid the ones that go from 5 to 4.5, or maybe the 5's altogether in case of a line move

or to put it another way, play if you think the line won't move, fade if you do.

[DLPicks]

Nice work.....

[Buckeyes of Texas]

thanks DL
B/Eyes/Tx

[DLPicks]

Looking at tonight's games, nothing seems to line up except Texas/Kansas State. KS is favored 1H -2 and according to your numbers, this is a 57% play on Texas.
Am I following this correctly??

[Buckeyes of Texas]

Originally Posted by DLPicks

Looking at tonight's games, nothing seems to line up except Texas/Kansas State. KS is favored 1H -2 and according to your numbers, this is a 57% play on Texas.
Am I following this correctly??

DL you're reading it right. TX+2 would be the play.
I usually try to play the covers that are 60% or higher.
gl today---BuckEyes of Texas