Thursday's Play--Another "Don't Make Sense" Play

[Keith]

hit a DMS play last night with Miami-Ohio (first DMS play for me in a long time), making me 3-2 for my last 5 posted plays. I found another one for Thursday night.

Penn State is 17-5 on the year (6-3 in the Big Ten), and they are coming off a BIG road win over #9 Michigan State on 2/1. They just beat Michigan at home on 1/20 by 15 points. Michigan is 14-8 on the year (4-6 in the Big Ten), and they are coming off of 2 straight road losses (to Ohio State and Purdue). So how is Michigan a 4 point favorite over Penn State tonight ? You'd have to be an idiot to bet Michigan here, right ???

Wrong !! The Wolverines will win and cover tonight. Here's why. First of all, while Penn State has a better record and a solid RPI of 67, Michigan's RPI is even better, at 55. Michigan has BEATEN the likes of UCLA, Duke and Illinois this year. While Penn State shoots a fairly lousy 64.6% from the free throw line, Michigan shoots a whopping 77.2% from the stripe. In a close game, I want the team that MAKES its free throws. Over the past 3 years, Michigan is 2-0 ATS at home against Penn State, and since 1997, Michigan is 7-2 ATS at home against Penn State. They do it again tonight.

As Patrick Swayze and C. Thomas Howell said in that classic movie Red Dawn: "WOLVERINES !!!!!!"

Thursday's "don't make sense" play is Michigan -4 to Penn State.

[Keith]

FWIW--I also really like Florida State -8.5 to Georgia Tech. Tech is coming off a big win on 1/31 against # 6 Wake Forest and they will be flat tonight. Tech's RPI is 133 and they shoot only 60.9% from the stripe. Florida State, who is coming off a tough loss to No. Carolina, shoots 70.7% from the stripe with an RPI of 27. Seminoles win by at least 10 tonight.

[Windy City Irish]

Goy?

[Keith]

Originally Posted by Windy City Irish

Goy?

only if it wins.

[Frosty Mugs]

Best of luck tonight Keith.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by Frosty Mugs

Best of luck tonight Keith.

thanks FM--you too.

[GAME TIME]

Keith,

What do you think about Wisconsin -4 ? Is it a good play ?

Thanks,
GT

[Scottish Rebel]

BOL today Keith!!

[Keith]

Originally Posted by GAME TIME

Keith,

What do you think about Wisconsin -4 ? Is it a good play ?

Thanks,
GT

chumly likes it--and he is smokin' lately, so that is good enough for me.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by Scottish Rebel

BOL today Keith!!

thanks reb

[vikesfan]

Congrats Last Night And Good Luck Tonight Keith

[RanPicks]

GL buddy

[BigFratDaddy]

i like this as an early lean gl

[ScreaminPain]

Originally Posted by Keith

.... While Penn State shoots a fairly lousy 64.6% from the free throw line, Michigan shoots a whopping 77.2% from the stripe. In a close game, I want the team that MAKES its free throws.

..... and since 1997, Michigan is 7-2 ATS at home against Penn State. They do it again tonight.

I agree with your thinking concerning FT's, especially late in the game. But what troubles me in this matchup is the Wolverines' defense. Michigan is allowing teams to shoot over 46% AT HOME and the Lions shoot over 46% on the road. That, coupled with the fact that Penn St. is shooting 3% above the NCAA avg. on their outside shots.

Penn St. has a decided advantage on the boards and they can play better "D".

As for that 7-2 ATS advantage....what happened "back in the day", will not affect tonights outcome.

I'm not certain I'm going to play this matchup, but I think Penn St. with a generous 4.5 pts is too much for Michigan in this one.

Good Luck on your action...

[hrdnox]

bol keith