Trendon's Talk-it-Out Plays

[trendon]

725 Niagara/Rider under 146½ -110

Opened at 143.5 and is now at the above listed number. I have no clue why and I hope I don't pay (literally and figuratively) for doubting the powers-that-be.

They played three weeks ago with the same lineups they will likely have today and scored 123 points. Rider shot 48.2% which is well above their 41.5% yearly average and they are actually WORSE at home with a 38.4% FG %. Meanwhile, Niagara shot only marginally below their season average.

So, if they can't exceed the 148 number in the previous game in a close game (not a blowout) where both teams combined to shoot better than their collective season averages, I see no reason they can beat 143 or 146.5, depending on when you got it.

713 Louisiana Tech +2½ -110

For one, Lang is on New Mexico State and while I don't consider him a 100% automatic fade, he definitely serves as an alert system. In this case, it turned out I had already shortlisted Louisiana Tech.

I had looked at this game based on my anecdotal and unproven belief that an ass-kicking on your home court by a conference foe is not taken lightly. I worry a little bit because New Mexico State is actually a very good team that is "only" 14-8 because they played a fairly tough schedule, but I think Louisiana Tech is better.

719 Western Carolina/Elon under 141½ -110

I feel this line is bait and I am not taking it like in the Niagara/Rider game. Three weeks ago, they scored 164 points on a 140 total while shooting 50% from the floor and 40.9% from three combined. Elon basically played out of their minds that day. Now they come home where they actually shoot worse than their overall average and the basically line stays the same?

Here's to a 71-42 WCU blowout.

[Bustamove22]

gl trendon !!

[trendon]

Thank you, Busta. 2-1 with a good beat on the hook in the La Tech game. I could have gone 4-1 if I played the over in the second half on the two total games, but I wimped out.

[trendon]

No real chatter today as I don't have much confidence in my plays today but what would my life be like if I couldn't stare at my cell phone, hitting refresh 1,000 times until the battery died as they are two points off the number with ten to play!?

552 Michigan State -2½ -110
531 Tennessee/Vanderbilt under 146½ -110

Will counter with second-half plays if middle is large enough.

[royceg]

but what would my life be like if I couldn't stare at my cell phone, hitting refresh 1,000 times until the battery died as they are two points off the number with ten to play!?



HAHAHAHA that sounds too familiar!!!

[trendon]

553 Colorado State/Air Force under 118 -110

Very interesting line considering that Air Force is being attacked by the flu bug. Colorado State shot lights out at home and they scored 118 so I am hoping they come back to Earth a little bit here. I'd love to see a 60-40 game with a nice, low-scoring first half so I can come back (potentially) with a 2H over.

Doesn't look good in East Lansing right now, by the way.

[trendon]

Adding ...

549 Alabama/Kentucky over 71 -110 for 2nd Half

Way below the number as it is and looking forward to seeing Kentucky start converting on more of their treys, currently standing at 2-11.