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Old 01-17-2019, 07:05 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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UnRanked Home vs Ranked Filtered by Smart Money...

I have been tracking the UnRanked Home vs Ranked thread and decided to run the plays thru a Smart Money Filter.


Not exactly precise science, However, as far as I can tell, there are 4 types of Smart Money Plays.

1 - Sharps & Squares on different sides. The sharp play would have < 50% of bets with more $$$ and the Line move against the sharp side.

2 - Sharp & squares on same side. The sharp play would have > 50% of bets with more $$$ and Line move against the sharp side.

3 - Reverse Line MOvement. #1 or #2 above but, Line movement is with sharp side. Obviously, books not going to reward sharp action with better line, so this indicates probably sharp money on both sides with more respected sharp money on the RLM side.

4 - #1 or #2 above but, No Line Movement. This is probably indicates More sharp money on one side, but, More respected sharp money on side that keeps line from moving.


with this in mind. will use these to filter the Unranked Home plays and hopefully filter out some losers or even turn would be losers into winners.
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Old 01-17-2019, 08:08 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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Applying filter to games so far ...

Review of how this would be doing so far...ALM = Against Line Movement, RLM = Reverse Line Movement, NLM = No Line Movement, Pros = < 50% & More $$$, P&J = > 50% & More $$$,

1/1 St Johns PK to -2, Pros, ALM, PLAY ON = WINNER

1/2 WVA, +3' to +4', Sharps both sides, RLM, PLAY AG = LOSER
1/2 Mary +1 to -2, P&J, ALM, PLAY ON, = WINNER

1/3 Purd, -8 to -10, Pros, ALM, PLAY ON = WINNER
1/3 Mia-Fl, +2' to +2', Pros both sides, NLM, PLAY AG = Winner

1/4 EMich, +10' to +11', Pros both sides, RLM, PLAY AG = WINNER

1/5 Pitt, +8' to +9', Pros both sides, RLM, Play AG = WINNER

1/5 ALa, +3' to +5, Pros both sides, RLM, Play AG = LOSER

1/5 Ia ST, -1 to -2', Pros, ALM, PLAY ON = WINNER

1/6 Penn St, PK to +2, Pros both sides, RLM, Play AG = WINNER

1/8 Nova, -6 to -6', Pros, ALM, Play ON = LOSER

1/8 Baylor +3 to +2, Pros, ALM, Play ON = WINNER

1/8 MIzz, +7' to +8, Pros both sides, RLM, Play AG = WINNER

1/8 SC, +6' to +6, Pros, ALM, Play ON = WINNER

1/9 Crei, -3' to -3',Pros both sides, NLM, Play AG = WINNER

1/9 Miss, +2' to +4, P&J, RLM, Play Ag = Loser

1/9 Tmple, +1' to -1', Pros, ALM, Play ON = WINNER

1/9 GaT, +8 to +7, Pros, ALM, Play ON = WINNER

1/9 Rutg, +6 to +5', Pros, ALM, Play ON = WINNER

1/10 ILL, +9 to +8', Pros, ALM, Play ON = LOSER

1/11 Mary, -4' to -5, Pros, ALM, Play ON = LOSER

1/12 Clem, -5' to -5', Pros both sides, NLM, Play AG = WINNER

1/12 Tex, +1' to -1', P&J, ALM, Play ON = LOSER

1/12 IOWA, -2 to -2', P&J, ALM, Play ON = WINNER

1/12 Baylor, +3' to +5, P&J AG, RLM, Play AG = PUSH
1/12 Fla, +3 to +3', Pros both sides, RLM, Play AG = WINNER

1/12 Fresno, +3 to +4', Pros both sides, RLM, Play AG = WINNER

1/12 SF, +8' to +9, Pros both sides, RLM, Play Ag = WINNER

1/13 Pen ST, +8 to +7', Pros, ALM, Play ON = LOSER

1/14 Pitt, +4' to +4', Pros both sides, NLM, Play AG = LOSER

1/15 Ga, +6 to +7', Pros both sides, RLM, Play AG = WINNER

1/15 GeoTown, +2' to +1', Pros, ALM, Play ON = LOSER

1/15 Boi St, +7' to +8, Pros both sides, RLM, Play AG = LOSER
1/15 WF, +9' to +9, Pros, ALM, Play ON = WINNER

1/16 A&M, +4 to +6', Pros both sides, RLM, Play AG = WINNER

1/16 Penn St, PK to -3', Pros, ALM , Play ON = LOSER

1/16 SMU, PK to -1, Pros, ALM, Play ON = LOSER
1/17 Neb, +1 to +2, Pros both sides, RLM, Play AG = ???
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Old 01-17-2019, 08:16 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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1/17 play ...

Neb, +1 to +2
Public and sharps on MSU early, Line went to +1'.
Late sharp money on Neb, but Line still went to 2.
Public on MSU, Sharp Money on both sides with RLM, thus ...

PLAY AG =
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Old 01-17-2019, 10:40 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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1/17 ...

1/17 Neb, +1 to +2, Pros both sides, RLM, Play AG = WINNER

I could be wrong about some of the above that I have posted. Maybe most of it.
but, using it to filter an angle that is time tested seems to be helping it for now anyway.
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Last edited by southerncoach; 01-17-2019 at 10:49 PM.
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Old 01-18-2019, 07:54 AM
brians brians is offline
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Thanks for info !
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Old 01-18-2019, 09:11 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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you're welcome Brian...

I'm just here to help us win...
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Old 01-18-2019, 09:16 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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1/18 ... Ohio St ... Early

1/18 OSU, -2 to -3, Pros, ALM, If nothing changes, it is a PLAY ON ...
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Old 01-18-2019, 04:38 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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1/18 OSU ... Late...

1/18 Osu -2 to -3, sharp money on both sides, I think, briefly went to -3' and was bet back down. Looks contrarian enough to me and has the ALM. PLAY ON OSU -3.

I am tempted to bet this, but, don't want to jinx it for the rest of ya'll.

GL
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Old 01-18-2019, 08:34 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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1/18 osu -3 play on = loser

3-7 now, the last 10 plays...
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  #10  
Old 01-19-2019, 07:53 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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Sat 1/19 Early Update...7:30 AM

11:00 AM Wis +4 vs MIch ...Squares usually pound these ranked teams. They & Sharps pounding Mich. Moved line from -1' to -4.

11:00 PM Mia +7 vs. UNC Same here. most bets on UNC. Line -6 to -7.

1:00 AM WVa +4' vs KU Line has moved from +6 to +4' despite majority of bets and money being on KU.

1:00 PM PUR -7 vs IND Bets & Money more balanced here. PUR -6' to -7 currently.

1:00 PM ND +2 vs NC St Majority bets and MOney on NC st. Line still at -2

5:00 PM Bay +4 vs TTU Bets & $$$ mostly tech. Line -3' to -4.

7:00 PM Tex -4 vs OKLA Bets pretty even...$$$ favoring horns. Line hasn't moved.

7:00 PM USF +7 vs Hou Squares pounding Houston. but, $$$ piling up on USF. Line from -6' to -7

7:30 PM Vandy +3 vs Miss St... Majority of bets on MSU. Money fairly even.

Line steady at +3. sharp money on both sides, I think?

Back before 11...
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  #11  
Old 01-19-2019, 09:10 AM
actionsportscentral actionsportscentral is offline
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Thanks for doing this. Any early conclusions?
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Old 01-19-2019, 10:48 AM
PICKSBYPETE PICKSBYPETE is online now
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thanks and best of luck with the plays
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Old 01-19-2019, 11:15 AM
Roky36 Roky36 is online now
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Thank you sir!
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Old 01-19-2019, 12:01 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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early games ...

11:00 wisc +1' to +4 now back to +3...Play against Wis, ON Michigan -3
11:00 mia +6 to +7 .Play against Mia, On UNC -7
1:00 WVa +6 to +4'... PLAY ON West Va +4'
1:00 Pur -6' to -9 PLAY ON PURDUE -9
1:00 ND +2 to +1' Pros hittin' it Late, looks like...PLAY ON ND +1'...


gonna' let the late games Purcolate a little bit....be back later...
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Old 01-19-2019, 12:15 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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Thanks guys...doing ok so far...

Early on...betting against it when the line moved the other way or didn't move at all, I went 13-5 doing that...Have 2 of those today, Mich and UNC...

going with the Unranked Home team when the line moved against them, started out lights out at 8-1, then went on a 1-8 slide. so not it is 9-9 by my count.
today I am on 3 of those so far, Purdue, WVa & ND.
Some big money tends to come in Late on these games....


9 of them today...
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Old 01-19-2019, 12:30 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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ActionSportsCentral...

I was going thru some old posts looking for sytems and angles, basically, just to try to throw some stuff at the wall and see what sticks, if anything.
I ran across a guy MistaFlava who had a system that seemed to be killin' it for about 5 days. Then he suddenly stopped it. it used home & away Assist/Turnover Ratio. He was a really good handicapper. His writeups were fantastic. Did you know the guy or know whatever happened to him.
Do you know anything about his Assist/TO system? I never found anything else about it...
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Old 01-19-2019, 02:05 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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Here are the Late 4 games for Sat...

5:00 Baylor +4 vs Tex Tech .. Against UnRanked, ON Tex Tech -4
7:00 USF _5' vs Houston ..WITH UNRANKED, ON USF +5'
7:00 Tex -5 vs OKLA WITH UNRANKED, ON Tex -5
7:30 Vandy +4 vs Miss St .AGAINST UNRANKED, ON MSU -4

Split so far goin' against. Mich LOST, UNC WON...

GL all ...
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Old 01-20-2019, 01:59 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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results from saturday...

didn't really help the system. my play against plays went 2-2.
so they went 4-5 as well...
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Old 01-20-2019, 03:26 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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Late Posting today...

sometimes that's a blessing...
Had FSU -7...AG Unranked...LOST

this weekend GO AGs went 2-3...it's record so far

Last edited by southerncoach; 01-20-2019 at 03:31 PM.
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Old 01-20-2019, 03:38 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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I have seen this before in Cbb...

first couple of weeks seems like everything winning...
Then it's like handicapping hits a wall. Losing or just treading water...

Maybe it's just me...
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Old 01-22-2019, 05:17 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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tuesday update...

SC +8' over Auburn...$$$ are split..LINE -7 to -8'...Sharper $$ on AUBURN
PLAY AG SC +8'


Record so far when playing ON unranked system 13-11
Record so far when playing AG unranked system 15-8

back before 6...try to wait late as possible. sometimes sharp money comes in late...
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Old 01-22-2019, 05:56 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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KSU and NOVA

KSU #bets split, $ favor KSU LINE pk to -2...PLAY ON KSU -2

NOVA #bets Majority on NOVA, $ fairly split, LIne frozen at -1'.
PLAY AG Butler.....ON NOVA +1'

back before 7
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Old 01-22-2019, 07:00 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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ala -1 and N Ill +8

ala -1 , Moderate advantage #bets & $$ for bama...yet LINE steady at -1.
PLAY AG bama -1, PLAY ON MISS _1

N Ill +8, NILL < 20% #BETS & $$, YET LINE DROPS +8' to +8
more respected money on N Ill
Play ON = N Ill +8'

OK...3 against and 2 with Unranked system...
Hope my experiment is wrong tonight...
GL with Un ranked...
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Old 01-23-2019, 07:11 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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unranked has big night... 4-1

the Plag AG unranked and on smart money theory went 2-1 last night
playing on unranked went 2-0

using this system unranked 15-11
Play AG system ...16-10


this record may not be entirely accurate...tracking 2 systems at same time difficult for me for some reason...
Especially when I haven't had my nap...
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Old 01-23-2019, 11:44 AM
mark12 mark12 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by southerncoach View Post
the Plag AG unranked and on smart money theory went 2-1 last night
playing on unranked went 2-0

using this system unranked 15-11
Play AG system ...16-10


this record may not be entirely accurate...tracking 2 systems at same time difficult for me for some reason...
Especially when I haven't had my nap...
Looks like play against went 1-2 not 2-1. Lost Mississippi and Auburn.
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