The value of home dogs?

[scoopdee]

how much value is there in a home dog?
i personally think this idea is a big misconception....

first of all, rarely does a home team pull off an outright win, and its hard for me to imagine that even half of them even cover.....i have an enormous amount of evidence from this year showing the road favorite, especially a team in the top 10 of the country, wins and covers the spread on the road time and time again.

think about it.....in order for it to be an "advantage" the home team would have to cover more than 50% of the time.....no way does that happen



so can someone please tell me why more people arent on the road favorites, taking the reduced line, instead of dialing up the "home dog"

need some help understanding, thanks!!

[The Nac]

Wouldn't the matchup also be dependant on who the favourite is? Some teams just can't seem to win or play well at some locations. I can't give specific examples, but I know there are some coaches that just know how to win against others, no matter what.

I'm curious to see how this debate turns out.

[Bisket]

cant use one year to disprove something like this

[uva3021]

everything is 50/50 at length

[scoopdee]

ok so if everything is 50/50 at length, then i guess there is no such thing as an advantage at all??

i dont necessarily believe that.....i would go out on a limb and say that duke has covered more than 50 percent of their home games

i just dont think you see those results from "home dogs" yet everyone jumps on a team just because they are at home

why?

[The Nac]

Well scoop, show me a top 25 team this year that doesn't have a winning record at home ATS. That's a good start.

[uva3021]

Kansas, Duke, Syracuse, Kentucky are a combined 32-27 ATS at home

[The Nac]

Originally Posted by uva3021

Kansas, Duke, Syracuse, Kentucky are a combined 32-27 ATS at home

Yet I'd still find myself picking them a lot when they're at home.

[scoopdee]

nac im not saying the home teams dont have winning records ATS.....i would need to do more research on this thats why i was hoping someone had some stats on it

i know from my own records of taking road favorites this year they are 42-15 in the ones i took.....at either covering or winning outright....now only one of these games were a double digit favorite, but still.....i just think the opportunity to jump on a lowered line is where the value is.....i dont have my list handy, but i do know syracuse and kstate i have taken 5 or 6 times each (actually 1 i know for sure was a road dog, cuse vs wvu, but i believe all others were favorites)