VEGASJACK College Hoops Research & Plays 11/7-11/13

[vegasjack2]

November 7th - November 13th Research & Plays

Four Systems To Follow This CBB Season:
Four Systems To Follow This NCAA Season

[vegasjack2]

November 7th Plays

A brand new season is upon us. Teams, much like bettors get a chance to start fresh and try forget about mistakes and losses from seasons past. Whims like, “Maybe this will be the magical season” or “This time I am going to do things right” hover about the air, but as well all know many hopes and dreams come crashing down before the end of November.

Not only is this the truth, but it is also a true microcosm of the public perception in regards to motivation in teams. The common belief is that every team is extremely motivated to get the season started with a victory. Although, it may be mainly true, this is often the reason for many bettors falling off the wagon by the end of the month. This perception leads to inflated lines, poor decision making and of course, the losing of money.

In order to be successful handicapping the first month of the NCAA season you must be able to accurately spot which teams are more motivated then the point spread indicates. In other words, which team will exceed there expected performance. Don’t handicap head to head, don’t handicap trends, don’t handicap past match-ups. Handicap today, this is a brand new season, everyone is equal until the record and performance states otherwise. There will be 150+ chances in the next four days to use this method before you have to consider other factors. Make the most of it.

Valparasio takes on 2k Sports Host Arizona tonight. The public assessment of this game is very one sided. Arizona has the all-important (number in brackets) next to their name, and are hosting this tournament. Double digit point spread should be an easy task to cover considering Valpo lost 60.5% of their offense from last season and 40% of their rebounds, assists and steals.

Stop and think again. Arizona is relying on the output of four freshmen this season. First year students, first ever game, first time on ESPN, first time playing the NCAA, 13.5 points, seems very high to me. I do not see how anyone can make an argument for Arizona winning this by more than a baker’s dozen especially considering what is happening on the other side of the ball.

Valparasio introduces their fourth head coach in the last 30 years tonight. Bryce Drew takes over for his father Homer Drew. In any sport, the number one motivational factor is a new head coach in his first game. You often times get an effort much greater than expected from the team with the new leader. Bryce has been around the team for quite some time and will instantly have the respect from his players.

Many see the Crusaders starting off slow because they lack the presence of a “go to” guy. I disagree. I believe that the new head coach along with the fresh roster will produce a team effort for the first couple days before a go to player is established. A team that works together is much scarier to me then a team that lacks personality, much like Arizona. These four freshmen are very over hyped at the moment. No one has seen them perform yet and until they do, I would be weary of betting Arizona for the fear of heads bumping together. You never want to have money on a team with a couple guys trying to stand out and show off.

This is a single digit game either way. I strongly believe this underdog will cover the number and put forth an effort that exceeds expectations.

A reliable source has told me nearly 8 of 9 bets are coming in on Arizona. He had the line at 12.5 and now moved to 14. Although the handle is not large with MNF being played at the same time, he did show comfort in Valpo as this offset in action should have indicated a 2.5-3 point move. Books are showing comfort taking Arizona action makes me feel even better about this game.

Valparaiso +14 3*

[LordCC]

Best of luck tonight!

[Windy City Irish]

gl tonight and this season vegasjack.

[SteelCityPlayers]

I always enjoy reading your articles. Good Luck tonight and for the season!

[vegasjack2]

Originally Posted by SteelCityPlayers

I always enjoy reading your articles. Good Luck tonight and for the season!

[vegasjack2]

Valpo

1-0 +2.72*

[springjk]

never in doubt u da man

[SteelCityPlayers]

Nice call vegasjack!

[vegasjack2]

November 9th Plays


The total in tonight’s Lehigh St. John’s game is 150… and counting.

For those of you who read my four systems to follow this NCAA season (link in the first post) you would remember that 155 totals are considered an extreme total. According to pace of play and points per possession, for a total to be that high, you must have two ELITE offensive programs playing. When I say elite I mean top 20 in Div 1. According to the line tonight, we nearly have that, right?



Wrong.



What we have tonight is an inflated perception that has driven a line up nearly three possessions. On Monday, St. John’s was a massive public favorite over William & Mary, even more so in the 2nd Half. The public was gifted to see a dominated second half effort from St. John’s which led to a 74-59 victory and cover.



Little do people realize, St. John’s offense did not win that game, their defense won that game. W&M had 21 total turnovers in the game and if I am not mistaken, 15 in the 2nd Half. St. John’s plays a swarming, quick defense that attacks the ball. This created many fast break opportunities and easy baskets.



This Red Storm team is a 65-70 per point a game team, not a 75-80, especially against a Lehigh team that is competent on offense and won’t turn the ball over 20 times. They return the nation’s leading scorer C.J. McCollum who will be guarded heavily throughout the game by this Red Storm defensive unit. This is not what you want to hear if you have the over. This means possessions will take longer than normal and not be as effective on the scoreboard. Normally for a total this high to go over, a team needs multiple options on offense to keep the pace of play and points per possession at the rate required. I don’t see another 20 point scorer on this Mountain Hawks team anywhere.



Another thing that makes me feel very comfortable about this under is the fact that this is Lehigh’s first game of the season and it is being played away from home. Had this been played in Lehigh, I may have been weary to pull the trigger. Despite returning 76% of their offense, this seasons Lehigh team has no game time together. This game is also on national television. With all the emotion of starting a new season and being on TV (a big deal for Lehigh) you can expect nerves to be a little tight. Put all of this together and place it in a venue where these players have never played, it is impossible for me to think that this game can get near this total. The bounce in the floor, the bounce of the rim, the perception, and the arena is all brand new to Lehigh. This is why it is so critical to pick your out of conference overs carefully.



For any of you who have played basketball, you know, you are never as confident in an arena that is new to you compared to a division or conference opponent where you play once or twice a year. When the big favorite is at home, big scores are tough to come by. Often times the games turn into their style of play, and tonight, that is not 150 plus points.



Chatting with Jason Thorpe (a name you will hear me say a lot this season. Jason is a former co-worker of mine who left Curacao and now has his own shop in Nassau and is a great college hoops mind) he said money has been rolling in on this over steady. As I mentioned in that post, often totals this high are very susceptible to action and move around very quickly. This line opened last night for him at 145 and has since moved up to 150, nearly a two possession move. He told me of the total handle, the betting action is chopped up a little higher then 65/35. Of the game the total makes up just shy of 50%.



I can’t see this breaking the 150 mark tonight, I like under in what should be a 74-61 game.



Lehigh St Johns Under 150 3*

[Windy City Irish]

Like it. good luck

[KOKANEE]

Good Luck.

[SteelCityPlayers]

It looks like Lehigh might be a 75-80 pt team...holy shit.
Hope this tightens up for us, gl tonight vegasjack!

[larrylooser]

Bol jack.

[vegasjack2]

They hardly missed in the 1st half and it is right on pace for the number. They need to keep that torrid pace up for another 20 minutes for this to go over.