Wal's College Hoops 12-7-09 thru 12-13-09

[wal66]

Ok for the past 2 seasons I have ran a program I developed for college football and it has proven to be very successfull. I tried last season to tweak the program to use for college hoops and it failed and I gave up on it. There are so many games and I was trying to do all of them and it just became a pain in the ass.

I decided to tweak it again and this year I will select a few games each day and only run those selected games through the program and see how it goes. I won't really be playing anything hard until conference schedule begins but I do need to test the program now in order to be ready.

I have played around with it the past couple of weeks doing a game here and there but with football going on I didn't put a lot of time into it. We have a little break in football now till the bowl games start so now is the time to test the program hard and see if I have something to move forward with.

These are the suggested lines for a selection of games tonight. These are the program suggested lines for these games.

Georgetown -2.5
Dayton -4.5
Temple -7.5
Texas Tech -7
Marquette -13
Vanderbilt -3
Kansas St -4
Pittsburgh -12
Fesno St -5.5
San Jose St -8

I am still playing around with what variance is needed in order to qualify as a play. I am starting out with a home team requiring a +/- 2 point margin and a road team requiring a +/- 4.5 point margin. So with that concept here is what I will be playing tonight.

Plays:

Texas Tech -1.5 (quarter unit)
Vanderbilt +3.5 (quarter unit)
San Jose -3 (quarter unit)

[RanPicks]

Gl Wal

[wal66]

Thanks Ran, I would like to be around past New Years. Generally by that time I have long since given up on hoops.

[wal66]

Opening night for my program is a colossal failure. The 10 games I pulled out went 6-4 but the 3 games I played went 1-2. Just as it has always been in the football season the program can only do so much you still have to do your part and I didn't. I chose a ranked team on the road getting points. Huge error on my part and everyone knows the situation there. I also chose a road team laying less than a number that generally makes the game a pick'm. Two very basic mistakes and 2 very obvious losers.


1-2 for the week so far.

[wal66]

Still tinkering around with what needs to be in the numbers. If you're playing along at home please just monitor until we see some results that merit play.

Here are 10 random games selected to run through the program for tonight. The first line is the program generated line followed by the actual line as of this posting.


Providence -2 actual line +2
Niagra -5 actual line -8.5
Austin Peay -1.5 actual line +8.5
Wisconsin -7.5 actual line -4.5
Indiana St -11 actual line -13
Villinova -6.5 actual line -14
UConn -4 actual line -1
San Diego -5.5 actual line +5.5
San Diego St -11.5 actual line -14
Washington St -3 actual line -6.5


Based on these numbers tonight I will be playing the following.



Play:

Austin Peay +8.5 (quarter unit)

Wisconsin -4.5 (quarter unit)

UConn -1 (quarter unit)

San Diego +5.5 (quarter unit)

[Sweetleaf22]

Good Luck Wal , Liking your Con Play, BOL

[wal66]

I have some serious work still to do getting the right components involved in this program. Dogs that program suggest should be favs looks to have some potential. Teams the program suggest should win by fewer than the posted line would have been good tonight but have had mixed results coming in.

2-2 tonight 3-4 for the week thus far.

[wal66]

Program lines for tonights games.

Miss St PK actual line -11
Syracuse -3 actual line -3
Cincinnati -12 actual line -14.5
Colorado -1/2 actual line -2.5
Montana -5 actual line PK
Michigan St -12.5 actual line -21.5
Rhode Island -7 actual line -6.5


Based on these tonights plays are as follows.


Plays:

Montana pk (quarter unit)
DePaul +11 (quarter unit)
Oakland +21.5 (quarter unit)


Sportsbook had the Montana game listed as a PK when I was doing this but I already see them at -1 at places.

[wal66]

Went 1-2 lastnight making it 4-6 for the week.


The week looks bad but staying with quarter units is helping and actually learning something about the program and how to tweak it for basketball. I am certain by conference play time this thing will be able to be on par with football.





Tonights generated lines:



Dayton -5 actual line -4.5

Tennessee -19 actual line -20

Iowa St -9.5 actual line -12

Vanderbilt -10 actual line -12

USC -6 actual line -12





Tonights Plays:



Dayton -4.5 (quarter unit)

Middle Tennessee St +20 (quarter unit)

Vanderbilt -12 (quarther unit)

[AlohaSrvdDaily]

Im quite interested in seeing how these picks do... GL!

[wal66]

1-2 tonight 5-8 for the week.

That is what the posted plays went. Personally I like losing so much I acidentally clicked on Old Dominion instead of Dayton so my night went 0-3.

[wal66]

Nearing the end of the first week o testing and results aren't good but to be honest they weren't figured to be yet. i still contend that once conference play begins things will become more clear and easier to find those match-ups best suited.

Todays random selections and program generated lines:

Ohio St -1/2 actual line Butler -3.5
George Mason -2.5 actual line -2
Ohio U -7 actual line -4
Georgetown pk actual line -2
LA Lafayette -3.5 actual line -9.5
Valparaiso -8.5 actual line -10
George Washington -10 actual line -4.5
Loyola Chicago -10 actual line -6.5
Wisconsin -5 actual line -5
Gonzaga -13.5 actual line -13


Based on these results...............


Plays:

Ohio U -4 (quarter unit)

Florida Atlantic +9.5 (quarter unit)

George Washington -4.5 (quarter unit)

Loyola Chicago -6.5 (quarter unit)

[wal66]

Went 2-2 today bringing the week to a 7-10 mark.





Tomorrows selections today. These are the program lines for these selections.



South Florida -16 actual line -13.5

Illinois -7 actual line -17.5

Wright State -4.5 actual line -2.5

Vilinova -2.5 actual line -3

North Texas -12 actual line -12.5

Portland -11.5 actual line -1

Boston College pk actual line -4

Xavier -2. actual line -3.5

UTEP -9 actual line -16.5



Gonna wait and see if there is any line movement between now and tomorrow. Will make plays later.

[wal66]

Sunday's Card.

Plays:

South Florida -13.5 (quarter unit)
DePaul -6.5 (quarter unit)
New Mexico St +16.5 (quarter unit)


Now this week he results are no better than a coinflip but to be honest I didn't look into these games to check stats. I was focused on getting the criteria to put into generating a line. I think for the most part I am happy with that portion on the program. It has given some aceptable lines. This coming week I may back off on the number of games I post because I will be starting my bowl games. I will continue to post one maybe two basketball games and try to get more into those games as far as capping is concerned.