10* NFL Parlay, Advice Needed Please

[ky6921]

Mallers,

Brutal day on Saturday NCAA FB...lost 5 second half spreads/totals by 1/2 to 1 points each! Turned what would have been a +2500 day (at 500 per pick) into a nearly -3000 one.

Many make the mistake of trying to chase on Sunday (including myself more than once), but I am trying to turn my fortunes with a five-team parlay, using first half totals so that I can follow with a second half parlay if necessary.

When picking 1st halves, I tend to pick totals as it is sometimes easier to cap the pace/momentum/overall feeling of a game rather than trying to pick a team that could easily blow a smaller first-half spread with a bogus field goal or turnover with a few seconds left.

Thus, here's what I had in mind, I'd appreciate anyone's feedback, and along with each selection, have included my reasoning.

Risking 10* (500 to win 10,000)
5-team parlay with FIRST HALF LINES

>Green Bay/Detroit OVER 23 points: Green Bay will be looking to take out their frustration after Monday's tough loss to Chicago. The Packers struggled in the first half against pitiful Buffalo a few weeks ago, settling for field goals on three first half drives that--with such a strong passing game--should have led to at least 17 points. I look for Green Bay to score 17 to 20 points, and to jump all over a reeling Detroit squad riddled with injuries. If Detroit can get a TD, this one should be in the 24-30 point range before half.

>San Francisco/Atlanta OVER 21 points: I like this pick due to the fact that people are looking for the Niners to suddenly break out of their slump because they are going with a new offensive coordinator. However, I'm taking the over due to my prediction that San Fran will be TOTALLY flat due to this brutal three-week schedule: A heart-breaking loss to New Orleans on MNF, followed by a long trip to Kansas City where they got smacked around, then a trip back to the West Coast, THEN another cross-country trip to Atlanta! I see the Falcons being able to run all over the defense, putting up somewhere between 14-17 points, minimum. San Francisco will be charged up on offense, and will probably have some new tricks to put up 7-10 points. The Niners will be fighting to avoid going 0-4, and will use all the energy they have left to try and keep up with Atlanta. I see this first half score looking like 20-7 going into the locker room.

>Seattle/St. Louis OVER 20 points: At first glance, this one looks like a typical Seattle blowout, as the Hawks have OWNED St. Louis in their own dome lately, and Hasselbeck has feasted on the Rams defense. However, the Rams will be forced to press the issue on offense in an attempt to keep up with Seattle through the air as RB Jackson is likely out due to a groin injury. Seattle will force a few turnovers which should help them get 13-14 points, while Sam Bradford should be able to help muster at least one TD. Projected first half score: 14-7.

>Carolina/New Orleans OVER 22.5 points: This one follows the lines of my Green Bay/Detroit argument...the Saints will come out pissed off that their kicker botched a shot at winning a crucial divisional game last time out, and with the backfield full of injuries--Brees' knee, Pierre Thomas' ankle injury, and Reggie Bush out with his broken leg--I look for New Orleans to go the the air, using quick drops and mid-range passes to soften up the "D" while protecting Brees. Carolina will continue to look to Jimmy Clausen for help, and should at least be able to get his team in position for a few field goals. Projected first half score: 20-6.

>NY Jets/Buffalo OVER 17.5 points: At first, I wanted to stay away from this one because the Bills are so unpredictable. However, after looking at the two team's recent performances, I think this one has a shot at passing this low total. First of all, Mark Sanchez has been carving up defenses left and right lately, and has targeted Dustin Keller both over the middle, and in the redzone. Last year, the Jets would have Sanchez run conservative draw plays because they didn't trust his decision making. Now, this confident bunch is touchdown-minded--a huge factor in my taking the over. The Bills will need to score to make this happen, and I think C.J. Spiller is the key. He is a great return man that will at least give Buffalo some decent field position. Also, as a receiver, he has the potential to rattle off some huge plays even against the Jets' "D." I see this one going to the half with the Jets up 13-6, just enough to put us over.

Please post your thoughts, I'd like to hear any advice and especially criticism of my reasoning here as this parlay has huge potential if I can hit it, and would like to hear your opinions. Thank you and good luck

[Caddyman]

Well, my best piece of advise is don't do it. Unless you have money to burn that is. Your odds of all those covering are pretty long. The Defenses today in the NFL are too good, and granted some of these may cover, I don't think they all will. The packers have little to no run game so they will pass more, but will Detroit game plan for that. NO can score, but I really don't think Carolina will at all. Who knows though. My record in NFL sucks so far this year so I could be wrong. I just don't want to see you drop 500 on a parlay. I love to parlay to, but it seems like lose so much money doing them. Gook luck on whatever you do, and I will be rooting for you.

[Caddyman]

I do like the jets/buff. over first half.

[Derby Champ '94]

Avoid that parlay it's a marathon. Listen to mike Tyson punchout