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  #1  
Old 08-05-2018, 03:32 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Exclamation 2018 Betting Info

In Week 1 since 2003 non-playoff teams are 55-38-2 ATS when facing an opponent that made the playoffs the season before.


49ers +5.5 at Vikings
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  #2  
Old 08-05-2018, 03:35 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Since 2014 the Steelers have an OVER record of 19-9-1 (67.9%) as home favorites.
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Old 08-05-2018, 03:37 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Chargers finished last season going UNDER in 10 of their last 11 games, covering the total by double digits 6 times.
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Old 08-05-2018, 03:38 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Packers have gone OVER in 31 of their 45 road games (68.9%) the last 5 seasons, most in the NFL.
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Old 08-05-2018, 03:39 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Chiefs have gone UNDER in 28 of 41 home games (68.3%) since Andy Reid took over in 2013.
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Old 08-05-2018, 03:40 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Saints OVER record at home is 16-8-1 (66.7%) the last 3 seasons.
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Old 08-05-2018, 03:41 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Ryan Fitzpatrick is 2-8 ATS his last 10 road starts, falling short of the cover by 8.1 ppg. He was a touchdown dog or more in 5 of those 10 games.
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Old 08-05-2018, 03:43 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Best NFL records ATS as underdogs

Since 2014


Patriots 6-1 ... (85.7%)
Vikings 20-9 ... (69%)
Saints 17-8-1 ... (68%)
Bengals 18-10-1 ... (64.3%)
Panthers 17-10 ... (63%)
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Old 08-05-2018, 03:44 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Steelers have gone Under in 22 of 28 road games (78.6%) the last 3 seasons, covering those totals by 5.6 ppg.

Offense averaged 29.6 ppg home and 21.5 ppg road.
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Old 08-05-2018, 03:46 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Since Mike Zimmer took over in 2014 the Vikings have gone UNDER in 18 of 24 division games (75%), covering by 6.4 ppg.
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Old 08-05-2018, 03:47 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Cowboys are 12-21-1 ATS (36.4%) at home since 2014 and 20-11-1 ATS (64.5%) on the road during that same span.

Best road ATS record in the NFL over that period and the second worst home ATS record.
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  #12  
Old 08-05-2018, 03:48 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Chiefs are 10-2 ATS in division games the last two seasons, covering by an average of 7.3 ppg in those games. Best in the NFL.
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  #13  
Old 08-07-2018, 11:48 AM
968574 968574 is offline
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Great Stuff NYK. Thanks
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Old 08-07-2018, 01:20 PM
Sweetleaf22 Sweetleaf22 is offline
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For Thursday preseason game vs Steelers (wentz and Foles prob out) fans will get a heavy dose of Nate Sudfeld and Joe Callahan.

Giddy up!
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Old 08-07-2018, 02:22 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Preseason Trends ...


Patriots Last 18 out of 21 opening NFLX games have gone OVER the total

NY Giants have COVERED 12 out of Last 15 opening preseason games

Cowboys failed to COVER 20 out of Last 24 opening week NFLX games
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Old 08-08-2018, 09:55 AM
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NYK, Would the following teams qualify under your 1st trend listed non-playoff vs playoff in week 1?

Baltimore vs Buffalo
Dallas vs Carolina
Cleveland vs Pittsburgh
Houston vs New England
NY Giants vs Jacksonville
LA Chargers vs Kansas City
Oakland vs LA Rams
Miami vs Tennessee
Tampa Bay vs New Orleans
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Old 08-08-2018, 11:05 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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In the preseason, playoff teams from the previous season have been profitable against non-playoff opponents.

Road teams and underdogs have been undervalued in preseason games.
The first full week of the 2018 NFL preseason kicks off Thursday with a 12-game slate. Many casual fans refuse to watch, let alone bet on exhibition games. However, these glorified scrimmages provide opportunistic bettors a chance to build their bankroll before the regular season begins.

One thing bettors should know about preseason games is that playoff teams from the previous season have been more profitable than squads that didn’t play past Week 17. Since 2004, playoff teams are up +8.38 units while non-playoff teams have cost gamblers -51.61 units.

Playoff teams have more value when their opponent missed the postseason. Since 2004, playoff teams are 224-200-14 (53%) ATS (+13.89 units) in this situation.

There are a handful of reasons playoff teams have an advantage. For starters, they likely have more talent since they won enough games to reach the postseason the previous year. Playoff teams also have more continuity (players/coaches) from season to season. Due to offseason front office, coaching and personnel changes as bad teams attempt to improve, many non-playoff teams spend the preseason trying to learn the playbook and adjust to new coaching schemes.


There are four games Thursday featuring a playoff team vs. a non-playoff team:

Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens (-3)
Washington Redskins at New England Patriots (-3)
Tennessee Titans at Green Pay Packers (pk)
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)


In the preseason, underdogs and road teams have provided bettors with edges. Since 2004, playoff teams that are underdogs on the road against a non-playoff team have gone 92-63-9 (59%) ATS. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $2,549 following this system.

Only one of Thursday’s preseason games matches this system

The Los Angeles Rams are 3-point underdogs in Baltimore (7:30 p.m. ET).

The Ravens do have some advantages in this matchup. This will be Baltimore’s second preseason game after playing in the Hall of Fame Game. The Ravens have three capable quarterbacks in Joe Flacco, Lamar Jackson and Robert Griffin III and a coach that has been one of the most profitable in the preseason (John Harbaugh, 26-14-1 ATS, +10.94 units).


However, the quarterback situation isn’t as good as it looks on paper. Flacco is paid like a top-tier passer but doesn’t perform at the level, Jackson is an unproven rookie and RG3 isn’t guaranteed a spot on the roster. Plus, Harbaugh’s excellent preseason coaching record wasn’t enough to cover the spread against the Chicago Bears last week.

Los Angeles has more talent and history on their side as an underdog playoff team on the road facing a non-playoff opponent. The public is also on Baltimore, which adds even more value to LA Teams matching this system getting less than 50% of spread tickets have covered the spread 66% of the time (46-24-4 ATS).
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Old 08-09-2018, 11:03 AM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
Since 2014 the Steelers have an OVER record of 19-9-1 (67.9%) as home favorites.
Thank you very much! As a running team that eats a lot of clock, I thought Steelers were an under team every time. This is pure gold for me. Have 100 points on me.

I will use your entire series in this thread.
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Old 08-09-2018, 11:40 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Preseason

Dogs are 753-653-46 since 1995 (53.5%)

Unders were 61% last season and 57% over the last 5 seasons
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  #20  
Old 08-09-2018, 11:53 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Since 2014, when two teams that failed to make the playoffs the previous year meet in the preseason, the under has cashed at a clip of 68.4% (67-31-4).

The under has finished below the closing total by more than a field goal per game (3.4 PPG), earning bettors a whopping 31.4 units in that span.

From 2004 to 2013, preseason matchups featuring teams in this spot only saw the under cash at a rate of 48.6%, losing bettors 13.4 units.

So what’s the cause? The constant turnover and pressure to succeed in the league cause growing pains in the preseason. That, mixed with higher totals and lower preseason scoring, has led to the recent uptick in unders.

Since 2014, the average over/under in a preseason game between two nonplayoff teams has been 39.3 (it was 36.5 between 2004 and 2013), while the total combined points scored by both teams was 35.9, exactly one point less than it was the decade prior (36.9).

So, to translate: The average over/under is up 2.8 PPG, but teams are scoring 1 PPG less.

On Thursday night, both the Chicago Bears-Cincinnati Bengals and Indianapolis Colts-Seattle Seahawks matchups feature teams that missed the playoffs and are replacing both coordinators. These are two of the five games that fit this trend Thursday, and I’ll be closely watching it throughout the preseason.


Thursday, Aug. 9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins (O/U: 34 — 7 p.m. ET)
Cleveland Browns at New York Giants (O/U: 35 — 7 p.m. ET)
Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals (O/U: 35.5 — 7 p.m. ET)
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (O/U: 35 — 10 p.m. ET)
Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks (O/U: 34.5 — 10 p.m. ET)


Friday, Aug. 10

Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders (O/U: 36.5 — 10:30 p.m. ET)


Saturday, Aug. 11

Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona Cardinals (O/U: 36 — 10 p.m. ET)
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  #21  
Old 08-09-2018, 11:57 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Most profitable active preseason coaches:


Pete Carroll +11.41 units (Seahawks -2)
John Harbaugh +10.94 (Ravens -3)
Mike Zimmer +6.69 (Vikings pick'em)
Doug Pederson +3.75 (Eagles -3)
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  #22  
Old 08-09-2018, 02:01 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Since 2007, teams featured on “Hard Knocks” have gone 14-26 against the spread (ATS) in the preseason, and a $100 bettor would be down $1,302 wagering on these teams.The year before participating on the series, when there weren’t distractions of the TV crews, teams went 23-21 ATS in the preseason. The preseason after “Hard Knocks,” teams are a combined 18-19 ATS.


The results for the preseason before and after the show are very similar. This is a small sample but it appears on “Hard Knocks” perform worse ATS in the preseason.

The cameras are the cause for the difference but not in the way you think. The NFL is the most popular sport in America, players and coaches are used to the attention. The reason teams struggle to cover the spread while on “Hard Knocks” is because HBO does a great job of making them likable, which in turn leads to more casual fans wanting to bet them.

Oddsmakers anticipate this reaction and inflate the lines making it harder for teams to cover. In the preseason prior to appearing on “Hard Knocks,” a team’s average spread was +0.61 points. While starring on the show, their average spread increases to -0.29 points. That is nearly a one-point line move, which is a lot in the preseason. Since 2004, nearly 70% of preseason games feature a spread of three or fewer points.
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Old 08-09-2018, 02:10 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Preseason line moves at CG Technology Sportsbooks


Bills -1 to -2.5
Bengals -2.5 to -1
Browns +3 to PK
Ravens -1 to -3
Pats -4 to -2.5
Dolphins -1.5 to -2.5
Seahawks -2.5 to -1.5
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Old 08-09-2018, 02:23 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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One of the least profitable active coaches in the preseason is Jason Garrett.

5-11 ATS as an underdog in exhibition games.

Cowboys +3.5 at 49ers
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Old 08-09-2018, 02:27 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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The Browns are the only road favorite tonight.

Since 2004, teams that didn't make the playoffs the previous season that are favored in the preseason have gone 238-275-19 (46%) ATS.

Cleveland opened +3, now -1 at most shops at Giants
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