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  #51  
Old 08-13-2018, 06:01 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Cardinals QB Josh Rosen will work with the first-team offense in Friday's preseason game versus the Saints.
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  #52  
Old 08-13-2018, 06:44 PM
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In Week 1, the average over/under closed at just 35.56 with the slate ultimately averaging 41.88 points per game. Not surprisingly, the average current total at Pinnacle for Week 2 checks in at 41.19 points, very close to last week’s average points scored.

To put this in perspective, the highest Week 1 over/under was 37.5 in the New England Patriots-Washington Redskins game. In Week 2, every single total is higher than 37.5. In fact, all but two games include over/unders of 40 or above.

The key question for bettors is whether the adjustment is warranted, or if it’s an overreaction to Week 1 as oddsmakers attempt to protect themselves from the inevitable onslaught of over money coming in Week 2.

According to Bet Labs, unders are 127-103-4 (55.2%) in NFL preseason games with closing totals of 40 and above since 2005. When the closing total is 42 or greater — which is the current number for five Week 2 matchups — that percentage increases to 57.1%.
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  #53  
Old 08-13-2018, 07:56 PM
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Biggest public bets ... Week 1

(Vegas sportsbooks money handle)

1- Ravens -6 vs Buf (90%)
2- Titans -2 @ Mia (89%)
3- Lions -6.5 vs Nyj (82%)
4- Saints -9.5 vs Tb (81%)
5- Broncos -2.5 vs Sea (80%)
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  #54  
Old 08-14-2018, 08:52 AM
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Thanks again NYK. Great info.
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  #55  
Old 08-14-2018, 03:58 PM
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South Point Vegas ...


Early money on Eagles / Jets / Packers / Chiefs / Dolphins / Bills / Raiders in week 2 pre-season
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  #56  
Old 08-15-2018, 01:41 PM
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Week 2 preseason biggest line moves ...


Seattle at LA Chargers (+1 to -3)

Pittsburgh at Green Bay (-2.5 to -5.5)

Philadelphia at New England (-2 to -3.5)

Kansas City at Atlanta (-2.5 to -1)

Miami at Carolina (Total 37.5 to 43)
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  #57  
Old 08-15-2018, 11:21 PM
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New York Jets (+1) at Washington Redskins (Thursday 8 p.m. ET)

Sam Darnold completed 13 of 18 passes for 96 yards and a touchdown in his first preseason game. Darnold is expected to start on Thursday against the Redskins. The J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets opened as 3.5-point underdogs. With nearly 70% of spread dollars backing New York, the line has moved 2.5 points in Gang Green’s favor.



Kansas City Chiefs (+1) at Atlanta Falcons (Friday 7 p.m. ET)

Andy Reid told reporters that Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ first-team offense will play the entire first half against the Falcons after getting only nine snaps in Week 1. With that information, bettors pounced on KC plus the points. More than 75% of tickets and dollars are backing Kansas City, forcing oddsmakers to adjust the line from Atlanta -3 to -1.
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  #58  
Old 08-15-2018, 11:26 PM
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This system fits the 2 above games ...


Since 2004, underdogs with line movement in their direction by at least a half-point (example: +3 to +2.5) have gone 144-124-6 (53.7%) ATS.

The larger the line movement, the more profitable it has been to bet on the underdog

The most profitable situation to bet underdogs is when the line moves at least 1.5 points.

Dogs in this scenario are 41-29-2 ATS, returning a profit of $1,139 for a $100 bettor. It is a small sample, and no one would argue otherwise, but we are dealing with a limited number of preseason games, plus the results have been consistent year to year.
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  #59  
Old 08-16-2018, 01:51 PM
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Since 1995, preseason favorites of -5 or more are just 110-164-2 ATS (40.1%)

The Packers are -5.5 vs the Steelers tonight
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  #60  
Old 08-16-2018, 03:29 PM
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Thursday Games ...

Win or Lose, positions below are "REAL" steam taken by various/multiple betting syndicates ... who originated buy-order or piggy-backed 2nd/3rd numbers.

Jets +3 to +3 (-120)
Packers -2.5, -3, & -3 (-120)

[1401] OVER 23.5 PHI vs. NE (1st Half)

Couple crews who missed number on Green Bay:

Sent out Packers -3 (up to -120) as 1st half buy-order.
On Phila vs. NE side : Betting syndicates placed different orders.

1st bet Patriots -2.5 & -3 (Up to -120) - (1st HALF)
2nd bet Eagles +4 (GAME)
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  #61  
Old 08-16-2018, 05:14 PM
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Insights from Will Bernanke, lead analyst for CG Analytics in Vegas, and D.J. Fields, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.


Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots – Open: -3.5; Move: -3; Move: -3.5; Move: -4

“Pointspread money is even on account, while there’s two times more New England money over the counter,” Bernanke said of action at CG Technology sportsbooks, including The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Vegas Strip. “On the moneyline, 93% of account money is on New England, while it’s fairly even over the counter. The public is on New England pointspread, sharps on New England moneyline. The ideal result as of now would be a Philly outright win.”

Bookmaker.eu opened New England -3 and is up to -4 today.

“The public is all over the Pats here,” Fields said of pointspread wagering. “Despite an even ticket count, we are looking at 75% of the handle on the Pats. The limited sharp action we have seen on this game has been on New England, as well. This game has quickly become one of our bigger decisions for the night.”


Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers – Open: -2.5; Move: -3; Move: -3.5; Move: -5; Move: -5.5; Move: -6

“We need the Steelers here,” Fields said. “Despite moving the line 3.5 points, we can't seem to write a bet on the Steelers. The ticket count is even, but 85% of the handle is on Green Bay. That disparity, coupled with sharp action on the Packers from -3 to -4.5, has us firmly rooting for the Steelers.”

At CG books, the Pack opened higher at -3.5 and were bet up to -6, as well.

“Sharps are laying points with the Packers,” Bernanke said. “On the pointspread, 91% of all dollars are on the Packers. On the moneyline, 61% of all dollars are on the Steelers. The ideal result would be a Packers win but a Steelers cover.”


New York Jets at Washington Redskins – Open: -1.5; Move: -1; Move: +1

“On the pointspread, 1.5 times more Washington money on account, and 64% of over-the-counter money is on Washington,” Bernanke said. “On the moneyline, 88% of all dollars are on the New York Jets. Sharps and public are on the Jets moneyline.”

Bookmaker opened Washington higher at -3 and actually got to 3.5 before ultimately dropping all the way down to pick earlier today, then jumping the fence to Jets -1.5.

“The Jets looked sharp last week, and players are taking note,” Fields said. “The ticket count is close, but 74% of the volume is on Gang Green. Sharp money seems divided down the middle, though. We have sharp action on both the Jets +3 and + 3.5, and on Washington -1.5 and 1. Ideally, we would like to see the ‘Skins win by a touchdown, but avoiding a Skins win by 1 to 3 points is going to be paramount.”
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  #62  
Old 08-16-2018, 05:25 PM
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Bet The Greek

Thursday Sharp Action

Patriots
Packers
Jets
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  #63  
Old 08-16-2018, 06:55 PM
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Market Update ...

Greatest exposure for books (RISK) =

PACKERS (Wiseguys thru -3/ Public thru -6)

JETS (Wiseguys +3 / Public thru -1)

OVER PIT vs GB (Public 42 thru 43)
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  #64  
Old 08-16-2018, 07:33 PM
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William Hill ...

Jets are claiming 99% of the money wagered at the Redskins

Packers are getting 94% against the Steelers

Patriots are getting 91% at home against the Eagles.
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  #65  
Old 08-17-2018, 01:35 PM
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Sports Insights

Friday

83% on Saints (-3.5)
69% on Dolphins (+3)
65% on Lions (-3)
62% on Bills (+3)
60% on Chiefs (-1)
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  #66  
Old 08-17-2018, 01:39 PM
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Cardinals / Saints

61% of tickets and 85% of money on the under at Action Network contributing books
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  #67  
Old 08-17-2018, 05:12 PM
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Biggest liabilities tonight at CGTechnology Sportsbooks


Chiefs
Saints
Lions
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  #68  
Old 08-17-2018, 05:16 PM
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Insights from John Murray, manager at the Westgate Vegas Superbook, and Will Bernanke, lead analyst for CG Analytics in Vegas.



Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons – Open: -3; Move: -2; Move: -1.5; Move: -1; Move: Pick; Move: +1; Move: +1.5; Move: +2; Move: +2.5

Bettors are banking on information that’s made them far more inclined to back the road team tonight, leading to a fence-jumping 5.5-point swing in the line.

“We’ve seen a lot of sharp money on the Chiefs,” Murray said of action at the Superbook. “Reports are that Kansas City is planning to play the starters the whole first half. There’s also a lot of money on the first-half Over, where we’ve gone from 21 to 23.5. Those are the two sharp positions I’ve seen for today.

“The Chiefs need to get Mahomes some reps. There’s a little more pressure to get a look at him. They’re counting on him as the starter, and they have playoff expectations, so it makes sense that he’d see a lot of reps.”

CG books have seen similar movement, opening Atlanta -3 and swinging to Kansas City -2.

“On the pointspread, five times more Chiefs money on account, and 91 percent of over-the-counter money is on the Chiefs. On the moneyline, 97 percent of all dollars are on K.C.,” Bernanke said of action at CG shops, including The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Vegas Strip. “Sharps and public are backing Kansas City on the pointspread and moneyline. The ideal result would be an Atlanta win that covers all numbers.”



Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns – Open: -3.5; Move: -3

“On the pointspread, 59 percent of account money is on Buffalo, while there’s two times more Cleveland money over the counter,” Bernanke said. “On the moneyline, three times more Bills money on account, and it’s fairly even over the counter. Sharps are on Buffalo pointspread and moneyline. The ideal result as of now would be a Cleveland win and cover.”

The Superbook opened Cleveland a tick higher at -4, but has also come down to -3.

“Most of the money is on Buffalo,” Murray said of pointspread activity. “The ticket count is 3/1, and money is a lot to a little, but Browns money will show up late, because it’s a national TV game on the NFL Network. Both teams have top-10 picks at quarterback that they’re gonna want to get some reps.”



Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints – Open: -3.5; Move: -4; Move: -4.5

“On the pointspread, 87 percent of all dollars are on New Orleans, and on the moneyline, 91 percent of all dollars are on New Orleans,” Bernanke said. “Sharps and public are on New Orleans pointspread and moneyline. The ideal result as of now would an Arizona outright win.”

Murray said the Superbook also moved from 3.5 to 4.5, but more so due to following the market, rather than a response to money wagered.
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  #69  
Old 08-17-2018, 06:21 PM
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Bet The Greek

Sharp Action

Chiefs
KC-ATL over
BUF-CLE over
Saints
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  #70  
Old 08-17-2018, 06:51 PM
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Action Network Contibuting Books


62% of tickets and 87% of money are currently on the Chiefs.

Dolphins 74% of tickets and 84% of the public’s money.

Bills at Browns ... 70% of tickets and 78% of the money have come in on the over
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  #71  
Old 08-18-2018, 12:39 PM
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Bet The Greek

Early Sharp Action

OAK-LA under
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  #72  
Old 08-18-2018, 12:54 PM
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SBR


Current Odds, Ticket % & Money %

JAX @ MIN (-4)

Vikings = Tickets 53% ... Money 63%


OAK @ LAR (+3)

Rams = Tickets 46% ... Money 58%


CIN @ DAL (-3)

Cowboys = Tickets 56% ... Money 69%


SF @ HOU (-3)

Texans = Tickets 59% ... Money 71%


CHI @ DEN (-3)

Broncos = Tickets 64% ... Money 71%


SEA @ SD (-3)

Seahawks = Tickets 61% ... Money 54%
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  #73  
Old 08-18-2018, 12:59 PM
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The Action Network

Jaguars / Vikings

68% of tickets and 85% of money have come in on last season’s AFC runners-up.
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  #74  
Old 08-18-2018, 01:04 PM
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The Action Network

Raiders / Rams

The Raiders have moved from +3 to +2 thanks to 55% of public tickets and 85% of the money.

81% of public tickets and 89% of the money have helped nose-dive the over/under since it opened at 42.5.
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  #75  
Old 08-18-2018, 01:06 PM
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The Action Network

Bengals / Cowboys

The under has received just 23% of public tickets but 72% of the money.
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