Go Back   Sports Handicapping at cappersmall > >

NFL Football NFL Handicapping - Post your NFL picks, talk NFL betting, NFL odds or fantasy football.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #926  
Old 11-05-2018, 05:36 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 94,465
Rewards: 83,909
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1581
Likes (Received): 3809
#Cowboys Jason Garrett: home favorite: 15-29 ATS. HF 5.5 or less: 9-15 ATS. NDIV HF: 9-19 ATS. home off road loss: 6-11-1 ATS. MNF: 3-4 ATS (1-3 at home) #NFL
__________________
Likes BLUE LOU BOYLE liked this post
Reply With Quote
  #927  
Old 11-05-2018, 05:37 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 94,465
Rewards: 83,909
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1581
Likes (Received): 3809
Since 2000, #NFL MNF home favorites of 5 or less: 45-55-3 ATS (NDIV 29-34 ATS). Past 5 seasons, 9-18-1 ATS (NDIV 7-14 ATS) #Cowboys #Titans
__________________
Likes BLUE LOU BOYLE liked this post
Reply With Quote
  #928  
Old 11-05-2018, 05:37 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 94,465
Rewards: 83,909
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1581
Likes (Received): 3809
MNF ATS this season: H (2-6-1) F (5-3-1) AF (3-0-1) HF (2-3) O/U (4-5)
__________________
Likes BLUE LOU BOYLE liked this post
Reply With Quote
  #929  
Old 11-05-2018, 05:39 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 94,465
Rewards: 83,909
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1581
Likes (Received): 3809
NHL


PITT


Past 5 seasons, #NHL regular season home favorites after being shut out as home favorite: 67-36 SU (+8% ROI) + opp off loss: 42-18 SU (+14%) #Penguins


PIT 62-28 L90 after scoring 2 or less last game & 38-17 L55 after loss of 3 or more. NJ 21-49 L70 after opp scored 2 or less last game & 19-42 L61 on road vs team w/ HWP < 40.
Reply With Quote
  #930  
Old 11-05-2018, 05:41 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 94,465
Rewards: 83,909
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1581
Likes (Received): 3809
In 11 games since 2015, Russell Westbrook has crushed when playing against Anthony Davis: 32.9 PPG, 10.9 RPG, 10.5 APG.

The @okcthunder are 7-4 SU and ATS
Reply With Quote
  #931  
Old 11-05-2018, 08:17 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 94,465
Rewards: 83,909
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1581
Likes (Received): 3809
#Titans at #Cowboys
🔸67% of ML bets on DAL
🔸66% of SPD bets on DAL -4.5
🔸65% of Total bets on over 40
Reply With Quote
  #932  
Old 11-05-2018, 08:18 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 94,465
Rewards: 83,909
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1581
Likes (Received): 3809
Robust action on #MNF. House needs Titans/Under.
66% of cash on Cowboys (-4.5)
65% on Over (40)
Reply With Quote
  #933  
Old 11-08-2018, 02:10 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 94,465
Rewards: 83,909
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1581
Likes (Received): 3809
Panthers-Steelers TNF Betting Preview: Ride With Carolina as a Trendy Underdog?

Action Network Staff
3 hours ago

NFL
Betting odds: Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: Steelers -3.5
Over/Under: 52
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV channel: FOX/NFL Network/Amazon Prime
Betting market: Pittsburgh opened as a 5-point home favorite at Bookmaker, but early action quickly came in on Carolina and the points. Following the early move, the line has settled in at -3.5/-4 across the betting market. — PJ Walsh

Trends to know: This over/under has risen from 50 to 52. When a total jumps by one or more points in a game already set at 45 or more points between Weeks 9 and 17, the under has gone 154-113-5 (58%) since 2003 (per our Bet Labs data). — John Ewing

This matchup between the 6-2 Panthers and 5-2-1 Steelers will be a battle of strengths for Cam Newton and Ben Roethlisberger. — Evan Abrams


Did you know? The Panthers have won and covered three straight games, while the Steelers have won and covered four straight. This will be only the second prime-time game featuring teams that have won and covered at least three consecutive games since 2003. — Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Steelers tight ends vs. Panthers defense
This year, when facing teams with tight ends who aren’t nonentities like Geoff Swain and Rhett Ellison, the Panthers have been absolutely gashed.

In fact, the Panthers have allowed an NFL-high seven touchdowns to tight ends.

Falcons TEs (Week 2): 6-91-1 receiving on 6 targets
Bengals TEs (Week 3): 9-109-1 receiving on 11 targets
Redskins TEs (Week 6): 8-84-1 receiving on 12 targets
Eagles TEs (Week 7): 13-181-1 receiving on 16 targets
Ravens TEs (Week 8): 7-67-1 receiving on 11 targets
Buccaneers TEs (Week 9): 7-68-2 receiving on 9 targets
Even though Vance McDonald and Jesse James are less important to the Steelers than Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner, McDonald and James are more than capable of exploiting 37-year-old strong safety and #DadRunner Mike Adams. — Matthew Freedman

Which team is healthier? Steelers

Both teams enter Thursday night about as healthy as you could expect after nine weeks of action.

The Steelers are tentatively expected to have Roethlisberger (left index finger) and James Washington (knee), but the outlooks for defensive tackle Dan McCuller (ankle) and slot receiver Ryan Switzer (ankle) remain unclear.

Running back Le’Veon Bell is still M.I.A., although he’s reportedly no longer in Miami.

The only notable Panthers injury on offense is wide receiver Torrey Smith (knee), who is expected to miss his third consecutive game, but the defense could be without defensive end Mario Addison (shoulder), slot corner Captain Munnerlyn (chest) and safety Eric Reid (shoulder).

Note: Info as of Wednesday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz



NFL Midseason Injury Report: Ranking All 32 Teams from Healthiest to Most Hurt
Read now
DFS edge: Panthers’ No. 1 cornerback James Bradberry is expected to shadow Brown. Bradberry has mostly held up well in previous shadow dates against Julio Jones (5 catches-64 yards-0 TD), A.J. Green (5-58-0), Odell Beckham Jr. (8-131-1), Alshon Jeffery (7-88-1) and Mike Evans (1-16-0).

AB could be Bradberry’s toughest test yet. Brown has averaged an astronomical 27.6 DraftKings points per game with a +6.4 Plus/Minus at home since 2014 (per our NFL Trends Tool).

Brown is $8,500 on DraftKings and boasts a strong +1.5 Projected Plus/Minus. — Hartitz

Bet to watch: Steelers -3.5

You know what’s not being talked about enough? Pittsburgh’s resurgence on defense. The Steelers have played three of Football Outsiders’ top-13 offenses in DVOA over their past four games — and those three teams (Falcons, Bengals and Ravens) scored only 18 points per game against Pittsburgh.

The Panthers present another stiff test, ranking fifth overall in DVOA, but Mike Tomlin’s crew is uniquely positioned to defend Carolina’s attack.

For starters, the Steelers rank as one of the NFL’s best defenses in getting after the QB: Seventh in Adjusted Sack Rate and fourth in raw sacks.

Newton is having a phenomenal season — he’s on pace to throw single-digit interceptions and set a career-best mark in completion percentage — but he’s struggled when under pressure. Cam ranks 24th in completion percentage and 30th in passer rating when he’s under duress (out of 36 qualified QBs this season).

So that’s a good start for Pittsburgh, but here’s the kicker: The Steelers are the NFL’s best defense at defending running backs in the pass game, according to DVOA. That’ll come in handy against Christian McCaffrey’s skill set.

I’ll be betting on the healthier team, the better O-line (Steelers are No. 1 in Adjusted Sack Rate allowed), the better skill players and, perhaps most importantly, the home team on a short week.

(As I bonus, I also get to fade a trendy underdog — Carolina is getting more than 60% of the betting tickets at the time of writing.)

Wait to see if Steelers -3 pops (it was trending that way on Wednesday evening), but -3.5 should be just fine if it doesn’t. — Scott Miller
Reply With Quote
  #934  
Old 11-08-2018, 02:12 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 94,465
Rewards: 83,909
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1581
Likes (Received): 3809
NFL THURSDAY

Carolina road dog 11-4-1.

NFL SUNDAY

Cleveland 1Q UNDER 7-1-1.

Chicago home 12-4-1.

GB home fave 19-8-1. Rodgers ML off loss 24-7.
Miami 1Q UNDER 8-1.

KC 8-1.
KC UNDER home 21-8.
KC 3Q OVER 8-0-1.

Oakland UNDER 12-3.

Seattle UNDER 6-1.
Rams 3Q OVER 8-1.

Tenn home 11-3-1.
Watch line: Belichick road fave -3.5 to 7 in 6 pt teaser 37-5.

New Orleans road 17-5-1.
Cincy OVER in 6 pt teaser 10-0.


Buffalo UNDER 6-1.
Buffalo 3Q UNDER 8-1.

Tampa 1-5.
Tampa OVER 7-1.

NFL SUNDAY NIGHT

Dallas UNDER 13-4. Dallas UNDER road 22-7.
Philly 1Q 1-7.
Garrett 1H UNDER 25-6 as road dog of 3.5 or more.
__________________
Likes fat-freddie, PPM liked this post

Last edited by goldengreek; 11-08-2018 at 02:13 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #935  
Old 11-08-2018, 09:05 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 94,465
Rewards: 83,909
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1581
Likes (Received): 3809
NYK...Lets gooooo

This is your thread , I just kept it warm for you.

Fire away
__________________
Likes madcapper1, Money$$$, slimWins liked this post
Reply With Quote
  #936  
Old 11-08-2018, 05:42 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 94,465
Rewards: 83,909
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1581
Likes (Received): 3809
@DaveMasonBOL: Sharp coin on the #Panthers tonight at +4.5. Steelers currently laying 3.5. #NFL Week 10 odds aqui&gt; http://bit.ly/2jEyu9h

m.twitter.com/...
Reply With Quote
  #937  
Old 11-08-2018, 05:43 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 94,465
Rewards: 83,909
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1581
Likes (Received): 3809
@BetTheGreek: NFL Sharp Action
Panthers (small)

m.twitter.com/BetTheGreek
Reply With Quote
  #938  
Old 11-08-2018, 05:53 PM
tigerbait tigerbait is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: RUSTON LA
Posts: 4,005
Rewards: 66,144
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 560
Likes (Received): 1430
We respect you for keeping it going while he has been banned. But then I expected no less of you, my friend.
__________________
Likes rkyric, goldengreek liked this post
Reply With Quote
  #939  
Old 11-08-2018, 07:25 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 94,465
Rewards: 83,909
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1581
Likes (Received): 3809
Panthers at Steelers (-3.5, 51.5): Tickets are very even @MGMRaceSports, but twice as much money has been bet on the Panthers compared to the Steelers, per @scottatmirage.
Reply With Quote
  #940  
Old 11-08-2018, 08:07 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 94,465
Rewards: 83,909
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1581
Likes (Received): 3809
Action pretty split on the #CARvsPIT spread - about 53% of the cash on the #Steelers (-3.5). Total gonna be the sweat... 80% of the coin on the Over (51). Thanks for the great action. Odds> http://bit.ly/2jEyu9h
Reply With Quote
  #941  
Old 11-08-2018, 08:15 PM
Lovedoc Lovedoc is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 101
Rewards: 1,052
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 8
Likes (Received): 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by goldengreek View Post
NYK...Lets gooooo

This is your thread , I just kept it warm for you.

Fire away
I will be shocked if he comes back......
Reply With Quote
  #942  
Old 11-08-2018, 08:33 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 94,465
Rewards: 83,909
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1581
Likes (Received): 3809
MODS


Got this message from NYK

Can you help him out ? He can't post

Hey bro ... Thanks for keeping those info threads alive. My ban has been over for a week but I am still unable to post or collect rewards to send a pm to mods trying to fix the problem. Jack never responds to the pm's in the administration thread and I had a couple guys contact Wayne about the situation and his response is he can't do anything about it.
Reply With Quote
  #943  
Old 11-08-2018, 08:58 PM
vikesfan vikesfan is offline
CM HOF 2011
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 209,854
Rewards: 206,839
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1752
Likes (Received): 12364
Quote:
Originally Posted by goldengreek View Post
MODS


Got this message from NYK

Can you help him out ? He can't post

Hey bro ... Thanks for keeping those info threads alive. My ban has been over for a week but I am still unable to post or collect rewards to send a pm to mods trying to fix the problem. Jack never responds to the pm's in the administration thread and I had a couple guys contact Wayne about the situation and his response is he can't do anything about it.
GG i'll try to explain nyk situation to you as far as i know right now. his ban ended last sunday afternoon but dr jack told me nyk would still be on post review and his pm's/rewards would stay shutoff since he abused them by sending me and many others here nasty messages. now i personally want to thank you for all the info you have posted while nyk has been banned and beyond. from when you came to cm you became an instant favorite of mine 12 years ago and that has never changed. a lot of it was because you were such a hard worker and how much you contributed. i also thought your rants were so funny whether you tried to be or not. however there were some other members who resented when i would say nice things to you since they were negative posters and thought i was kissing your ass and riding your dick. and when you came back here this past summer and i was happy and knew you could go on great runs in mlb nyk really turned on me since he was no fan of yours. even wishing you good luck and urging you on pissed him off. i know that you have had to leave cm a few times over the past 12 years for different reasons but had you been here without any interruptions you would probably have twice as many posts as i do . ultimately dr jack will have to handle the nyk situation but due to his wife being very sick he has much greater priorities to deal with than nyk right now.
__________________
I Love It Here
Service Plays Moderator
CM Hall Of Fame Class 2011
RIP CM Legend Wayne Ironchung The Chunger
I never saw what greatness was in this business till GG went on a 37-4 run in MLB top plays July, 2015.
To GG And Goirish I Respect And Appreciate You Both More Than You Will Ever Know.
Roma! , thanks be47320 for the al kaline graphed card.
Wayne thanks for all your hard work around here.
Reply With Quote
  #944  
Old 11-09-2018, 01:57 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 94,465
Rewards: 83,909
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1581
Likes (Received): 3809
Quote:
Originally Posted by vikesfan View Post
GG i'll try to explain nyk situation to you as far as i know right now. his ban ended last sunday afternoon but dr jack told me nyk would still be on post review and his pm's/rewards would stay shutoff since he abused them by sending me and many others here nasty messages. now i personally want to thank you for all the info you have posted while nyk has been banned and beyond. from when you came to cm you became an instant favorite of mine 12 years ago and that has never changed. a lot of it was because you were such a hard worker and how much you contributed. i also thought your rants were so funny whether you tried to be or not. however there were some other members who resented when i would say nice things to you since they were negative posters and thought i was kissing your ass and riding your dick. and when you came back here this past summer and i was happy and knew you could go on great runs in mlb nyk really turned on me since he was no fan of yours. even wishing you good luck and urging you on pissed him off. i know that you have had to leave cm a few times over the past 12 years for different reasons but had you been here without any interruptions you would probably have twice as many posts as i do . ultimately dr jack will have to handle the nyk situation but due to his wife being very sick he has much greater priorities to deal with than nyk right now.

My brother... I believe you. I get it. I know he disliked me. I have no idea why. We had similar styles and opinions and hated the scumbag touts as I did. I could never figure out the hate....But at least he was upfront about it at times and not a sneaky backstabber like others in this forum. I also never saw him openly cheering for multiple people to lose and cheer against a trend or a system that people are on just to see someone be wrong. I think the alcohol has alot to due with his issue. Not an excuse, but it is a definite factor in his behavior.

I also dont give a shit who hates me and what ppl say. These are strangers in a forum that I will never meet. Their opinions mean shit to me. I care more about one bead of sweat on my taint than therse "haters" opinions. They are not my friends. I dont know them,.. fuck it, fuck them. Sometime we all get caught up in a discussion and get fired up and go to far.

There are different types of ppl on these forums.

Contributors and moochers. Jealous haters that are happy to see ppl lose and great guys that are happy if you help win them some money.

This shit is not easy. YOU know this more than ANYONE. I take time away from my capping, my lunch break, my sexy time (Borat voice) with my females. Ive run out of time putting my own personal plays in because ive been posting info here.

Weather or not NYK is an asshole and that he was a prick to you and I is one thing but it dosent take away from his contributions. He is in the VERY SMALL majority of members who actually posts useful information to try to help. None of us have to.

I 1000 % support you in the fact that he should not have talked to you in that manner. You are pretty much the nicest guy on the entire forum and definitely did not deserve that. I just feel like he did his time / served his time and should be allowed to post now.

Bottom line. I feel is you have an All Star player you dont keep him on the bench the entire season. He had a well deserved suspension, now lets let him do his thing and return to the starting lineup. He is too valuable to waste on the bench. Just one mans opinion

By the way I appreciate all the nice things you said and have said about me. Thank you for being a supporter and a friend. It is very much appreciated and I thank you.
__________________
Reply With Quote
  #945  
Old 11-09-2018, 07:20 PM
chards chards is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: NorCal
Posts: 228
Rewards: 10,760
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 252
Likes (Received): 153
I understand my opinion doesnt matter in this situation, but I still felt compelled to say something. I have been a member here for many years, and although my contributions have been limited, usually just doing tallies and finding ways to help out, I have seen plenty, lots of the good and the bad of many members. Oddly enough NYK was one of the first people to personally provide me with valuable info, and was always very forthcoming and helpful, and I really appreciated it. I did see that when someone rubbed him the wrong way, intentionally or unintentionally, he was going to be sure they knew that was a bad idea, and yeah he often went over the line, but I think that was a product of the environment. People are going to bump heads online.
Anyway I’m not condoning anything he’s said, and I don’t want to offend anyone that was involved in the last situation, I just wanted to say NYK always been class to me, and to many others, and as you know he is a top contributor on here, and I hope to see him fully reinstated soon.
I really appreciate all of the hard work from a number of you guys, especially you Sail, & GG, so thank you.

Chards
__________________
Likes showell liked this post
Reply With Quote
  #946  
Old 11-11-2018, 09:52 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 94,465
Rewards: 83,909
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1581
Likes (Received): 3809
#NFL Week 10: Most Popular Spread Bets

83% on Patriots (-7)
80% on Chargers (-10)
78% on Falcons (-5.5)
77% on Packers (-10)
77% on Eagles (-7.5)

http://sportsinsights.com/nfl
Reply With Quote
  #947  
Old 11-11-2018, 10:04 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 94,465
Rewards: 83,909
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1581
Likes (Received): 3809
Per @MGMRaceSports @scottatmirage on WAS-TB: "We're a small loser to the Bucs. Pretty good two-way on that game." Buccaneers open -2.5, up to -3 (-120).
Reply With Quote
  #948  
Old 11-11-2018, 10:05 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 94,465
Rewards: 83,909
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1581
Likes (Received): 3809
Per @SuperBookUSA's @vegasmurray on WAS-TB: From Pick to Bucs -3.5. “We had a guy lay Bucs -1.5 for $30K early in week, and we need Redskins for a decent amount. Public is mostly backing Bucs as well, and it makes sense, with all injuries Redskins have on offensive line.”
Reply With Quote
  #949  
Old 11-11-2018, 10:05 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 94,465
Rewards: 83,909
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1581
Likes (Received): 3809
Per @SuperBookUSA @vegasmurray on JAX-IND: “We had a guy early in the week take the Jaguars +3.5 (-110) to win $60,000. Other than his bet, the action has been pretty even. Both teams need this game if they hope to catch Houston in the AFC South.” Colts at -3.
Reply With Quote
  #950  
Old 11-11-2018, 10:06 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 94,465
Rewards: 83,909
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1581
Likes (Received): 3809
Per @MGMRaceSports @scottatmirage on NO-CIN: "Ticket count 6/1, money about the same on Saints." That would include the big NFL bettor -- aka Saints bettor -- who has been hitting MGM books and others all season. High-5-figures on Saints -4.5. Line now 6.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
made, opponent, playoffs, season, vikings

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:32 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
Resources saved on this page: MySQL 15.00% Host: cappersmallweb2