4 Playoff Winners and reasons:

[straightanswers]

People will be betting on emotion over common sense and deep dug facts this weekend.
NOT ME!

I am taking:

TB -2.5
FACTS
1. The Giants are still the Giants. Eli stinks!
2. TB is 6-2 at home this year. TB lost to JAC by 1 and the meaningless last game of the season verse CAR when resting players.
3. NYG are 7-1 on the road. Great? NO! They beat 1 team with a winning record on the road. Week #4 they beat WAS 24-17 when WAS was winning 17-3 at the half. WAS pulled off the throttle and got bit in the a$$.
4. EMOTION Aspect -People will remember how well NYG played verse NE instead of looking at the facts.
5. HEALTH Aspect -TB just got healthy and the NYG didn't rest players last week.

SEA -3 (-120)
FACTS
1. SEA is 7-1 at home (winning the last 5, 4 of those by 21 points or more), WAS is 4-4 on the road.
2. OFF vs DEF: Offense SEA (9th) WAS (15th). Small advantage in yards and outscoring WAS by 59. Defense WAS (8th) SEA (15th) Small advantage WAS right? Nope! This stat is highly skewed by only measuring yards. SEA defense has given up 19 less points than WAS. This is a good fact where Fantasy meets reality---WAS fantasy DEF/SPT is ranked 25th and SEA is 5th. Why is this important? This factors in sacks, turnovers, DEF and SPT TDs and play. Very Important.
3. What about Collins being 4-0 with 5 TDs no INTs at QB? It is scary until you dig deeper into the facts. He has fumbled the ball 4 times in 4 games, losing 2. SEA is 2nd in Forced Fumbes. Collins is a Fumbleholic. SEA is ranked
4th in INTs. They will get at least one from him this week. WAS is only gaining 10 more passing yards a game with him, actually the same if you don't count the DAL game where DAL didn't care. SEA is ranked 4th in sacking the QB, Collins have got sacked 7 times in less than 4 games. Trouble is brewing.

SD-10
FACTS
1. TEN has beat 1 team over .500 all year long. It was game 1 verse JAC 13-10. (The last meaningless Indy game does not count)
2. SD has won their last 6 games, 5 by 13 or more points. Their 6 point win was at TEN. Well, they are at SD now and this game has much more meaning.
3. OFF vs DEF: OFF SD (20) TEN (21) in YPG. SD outscores TEN by a TD a game. The last 6 games, SD has averaged scoring 30 points. Once again, Fantasy SPT/Defense stats SD(1) TEN (15) a big discrepency.

PIT +3 (-120)
FACTS
1. Home Playoff dogs are very rare (we have seen only 13 of them since 1982) but if you find one – jump on it as they are 11-1-1 against the spread in those games. Enough for me.
2. Yes PIT has injuries. W.Parker being out doesn't hurt them that much. He's not a North-South runner that PIT needs in the playoffs. PIT will pass the ball which is hurt by injuries to their O-Line. Adv JAC.
3. Statistically, JAC is better at scoring and YPG offense and PIT is better at scoring D and YPG defense. No Adv.
4. PIT is 7-1 at home, JAC is 5-2 on the road(not including the last meaningless game). I understand that JAC is always under-rated, but can't go against the Home Playoff Dog.

Good luck the games.

[fredhffl]

agree with everything except for the pitt game.seems like their wheels are coming off.gl

[ZoomVT]

nice write up. good luck!

[YPA]

Agree with them all SA. All the best for the weekend

[cantpickem]

Agree with the Pitt. Public perception of the Jags is driving up the points. JAGS are a darn good team, however a home dog in the playoffs is almost unheard of! Pitt by 3 and take the overs baby!

[THE_ROOKIEEE]

nice job on your write up.....u said some real good facts.... best of luck

[dave nz]

Careful with those

[straightanswers]

Good Luck to everyone today

[straightanswers]

2-0 so far.

[straightanswers]

SEA +7.5
FACTS
1. SEA is a tale of 2 seasons. The first six games SEA was 4-4. Since then (discluding the unimportant week 16 game when they rested players) SEA is 7-1 losing their only game on the road by 3. Infact the last time SEA lost by more than 3 was 12 games ago.
2. GB has beaten 1 team over .500 since week 3. That was WAS (week 6) by 3 points. SEA has only beaten 1 team also during that timeframe over .500 which was WAS last week by 21. My point being that using this fact, the line should be closer to GB -3 because of similar schedules.
3. DEF: Defense SEA (15th) GB (11th). GB has a small advantage in yards but using Fantasy Value that factors in sacks, turnovers, DEF and SPT TDs and play---SEA is Ranked 3rd amongst the teams left and GB is 6th.

SD +9
FACTS
1. Fear Indy right? Well Yes you're right. BUT--Realize this. SD is 11-2 in their last 13 games. Also, SD has won their last 7 games, 6 by 11 or more points. And now they are getting 9?????? I know Indy is a great team and Peyton won't throw 6 picks like he did in the loss to SD earlier this year, but my second fact will explain better why throwing picks and making mistakes is more probable by Indy than you may think.
2. DEF: IND (3rd) SD (15th). This yardage stat is so distorted that when you add all SPT and fantasy stats (as I have explained) SD is the #1 team left in the playoffs and IND is 7th of the 8 teams left. Not as good as a D as you think.
3. IND has only beat 8 of 15 teams (because I don't include the last game vs. TEN that meant nothing in week 16 or it would be 8-8) by 9 or more. 3-5 down the stretch not including the week 16 game.

OVER 49.5 NE/JAC
FACT
1. How many reasons do you want that I just cannot decide on a side. To make it simple,
The case for JAC - is one of the most Under-rated teams in the NFL. Great run offense against an average NE run Def. JAC has played 5 of their last 8 meaningful games against playoff teams, winning 7 of the games, losing at IND by 3. Impressive.
The case for NE - has won 11 of their 16 games by more than 2 TDs, even though they have struggled down the stretch. They are rested, ready, and playing at home. Ouch. Their Fantasy Def is #2 and JAC is ranked last of the 8 teams left.
2. The case for the OVER - NE has an average run D and JAC will run run run and score. NE makes up for that with INTs, Fumbles, etc which lead to easy quick scores. NE offense won't be stopped by a average JAC pass D that couldn't stop PIT. JAC special teams has improved of late and their D averages over a INT a game.
No opinion on the game.

NYG +7.5
FACTS
1. DEF and OFF very similar. NYG are coming on at the right time and DAL is slipping at the wrong time.
2. P. Crayton as your #2 WR is not good news.
3. I feel DAL will win but not by more than a TD.
(I feel the least confident about this game than any other game).

Good luck on whoever you bet.

[straightanswers]

3-1 last week

[IloveBaseball]

GL and thanks for giving us the straight answers!

[dalers2k]

nice writeup...thanx and good luck

[dave nz]

How are you 2-0 If u had TB last week?

Gl regardless

[HawksRock00]

how did you go 3-1 with TB and Pitt ?