5* Super Bowl Play

[Capt. N-R]

Well, it is time for the big game again. Those who have read my posts in previous years know I have started this Super Bowl thread and simply expand on it. Super Bowl Champions have certain traits if you will.

My first Super Bowl bet was San Fran -12 in the ugly rout of Denver 55-10. That makes a total of 18 Super Bowls since I have been doing this. This year will be 17
Since betting the Super Bowl I have had 11 large wagers (4 star or higher):

SF -12 over Denver 55-10 (W)
SF -18 over SD 49-26 (W)
Dallas -14 over Pitt 27-17 (L)
GB -14 over NE 35-21 (Push)
Denver +11 over GB 31-24 (W)
Denver -7.5 over Atl 34-19 (W)
TB +3.5 over Oak 48-21 (W)
NE -7 over Car 32-29 (L)
Philly +7 over NE 21-24 (W ATS)
Seattle +4 loses to Pittsburgh 21-10 (L)
Bears +7 lost to Colts 29-17

Usually the spread doesn't matter in the Super Bowl but it has in four of my large Super Bowl wagers. Understand that some of my filters I detail below I have recently developed/researched so I would love to change some of my bets now.

My Super Bowl ananlysis is a work that has developed over time. I usually expand the core work every year.


I must give credit to the Sports Reporter (the blue tip sheet) for influencing my philosophies particularly on the Super Bowl. I remember one simple advice they gave: ALWAYS BET THE TEAM AT THE TOP OF THEIR GAME. I guess the inverse of that is also true. Don't bet the team not at the top of their game. Let's review my 5 filters and how they shape my opinion for the game this weekend.

Note this: My research encompasses the 1973 regular season to present for Filter 1. My research does not include the 1982 season as that season had 3 rounds of playoffs do to the strike

I will list my filters this year but none are in play…………..

Filter #1 Always bet a team that has scored 56 points, held the opponents to 30 points or less, and won both games by double digits or more. This is based on 2 playoff games.

If you qualify for this category---------ALL CYLINDERS ARE CLICKING. IT IS TOUGH TO HOLD OPPONENTS TO 15 OR LESS WHILE SCORING 28 OR MORE PER GAME. The both games by double digits criteria doesn't allow a team to manipulate this ratio on the basis of one game. This situation has yielded a 11-2-2 ATS mark with a 14-1 SU mark. Here is who qualified in that category:

1973 Dolphins (61-26 in 2 playoff games) beats Minnesota (54-30) by a score of 24-7 as a 6.5 fav (W)
1974 Steelers (56-27--barely qualify) beats Minnesota (44-24) by a score of 16-6 as a 3 fav (W)
1977 Cowboys (60-13) beats Denver (54-38) by a score 0f 27-10 as a 6 point fav (W)
1978 Steelers (67-15) beats Dallas (55-20) by a score of 35-31 as a 4 pont fav (PUSH)
1979 Steelers (61-27) beats Rams (30-19) by a score of 31-19 as a 11.5 fav. (W)
1983 Raiders (68-24) beats Wash. (75-28, one DD win) 38-9 as a 3 point dog (W)
1986 Giants (66-3) beats Denver (45-37) 39-20 as a 9.5 fav. (W)
1988 SF (62-12) beats Cincy (42-23) by a score of 20-16 as a 7 point fav (L)
1989 SF (71-16) Beats Denver (61-44) by a score of 55-10 as a 11 point fav (W)
1991 Wash (65-17) beats Buffalo (47-21) by a score of 37-24 as a 7 point fav (W)
1992 Dallas (64-30) beats Buffalo (wild card--3 games) by a score of 52-17 as a 6 point fav (W)
1996 Green Bay (65-27) beats NE (48-9) by a score of 35-21 as a 14 point fav (PUSH)
1998 Denver (61-13) beats Atlanta (50-45) by a score of 34-19 as a 7.5 fav (W)
2000 Giants (61-10) loses to Ravens (61-16 but 3 games) by a score of 34-7 (L)
2002 Tampa Bay (58-16) beats Oakland (71-34) by a score of 48-21
2004 New England (61-30) beats Philly (54-24) team by a score of 24-21. Philly was close so I didn't award either in this category

Filter #2

If a team wins both playoff games by single digits, then bet against them........
Colts played three games this year but did win the last two by less than ten…

These teams are 2-4 SU and 2-4 ATS

1979 Rams (30-19 cumulative in 2 games) loses 31-19 as 11.5 dogs to Steelers (L)
1986 Broncos (45-37) loses 39-20 to Giants as a 9.5 dog (L)
1987 Redskins (38-27) beats Denver 42-10 as a 3 point dog (W)
1994 Chargers (39-34) loses to SF 49-26 as 18.5 dogs (L)
1998 Falcons (50-45) loses to Denver 34-19 as 7.5 dogs (L)
2001 Patriots (40-30) beats the Rams (74-41) as 14 point dogs (W)

The Giants have won their last two by 3 and 4 with a wildcard win of 10. They essentially fit this filter

Filter #3

IF NEITHER TEAM QUALIFIES BY THE FILTER #1 or #2 Criteria, Then the game should be competitive. Take 11 points or more if offered by the linemaker.

1995 Steelers (60-37) loses 27-17 to Dallas (68-38) as a 14 point dog (W)
1997 Broncos (wildcard 3 games) beats Green Bay (44-17) as a 11 point dog (W)

Filter #4

IF YOUR DEFENSE HAS ALLOWED 16 or less points on the way to the SUPER BOWL---bet on them. The record is 8-1-2 ATS and 10-1 SU if you throw out the Ravens-Giants Super Bowl that had two qualifiers

2002 Bucs (16 points allowed) wins 48-21

2000 Giants (16 allowed) faces Ravens (16 allowed in 3 games) Both teams qualify so throw this game out

1998 Broncos (13 allowed) wins 34-19 as 7.5 favs (W)
1996 Pats (9 points allowed) loses 35-21 as 14 point dogs (PUSH)
1990 Giants (16 points) wins 20-19 as a 6.5 dog (W)
1989 49ers (16 points) wins 55-10 as a 11.5 point fav (W)
1988 49ers (12 points) wins 20-16 as a 7 point fav (L)
1986 Giants (3 points) wins 39-20 as a 9.5 fav (W)
1985 Bears (0 points) wins 46-10 as a 10 point fav (W)
1984 49ers (10 points) wins 38-16 as a 3 point fav (W)
1978 Steelers (15 points) wins 35-31 as a 4 point fav (PUSH)
1977 Cowboys (13 points) wins 27-10 as a 6.5 point fav (W)

Doesn't apply in this year

Filter #5

GO AGAINST A LINE MOVE OF OVER 14 POINTS WITH A GIVEN CONFERENCE

Ex. If the NFC is a one point underdog one year and is installed as a 14 point favorite the next year, take the AFC plus the 14. The theory here says the best team in the leeague doesn't change that drastically in one year. The days of free agency have accellerated this process, but..........

1981 Raiders +3 (AFC was -11.5 the year before) wins 27-10 (W)
1991 Giants +6.5 (NFC was 11.5 fav the year before) wins 20-19 (W)
1998 Falcons +7.5 (NFC was 11 point favs the year before) loses 34-19 (L)
2001 Patriots +14 (AFC was 3 point fav the year before) wins 20-17 (W)
2002 Bucs +4 (NFC was -14 the year before) won 48-21 W

4-1 SU and ATS

1999 Titans also qualify but that game was a push

Doesn't apply

In Review, there are 4 seasons with conflicting filters since 1973. (the regular seasons of 2001, 2000, 1998, and 1996) By that I mean the games has two different filters or more which point
towards different teams. So that leaves 18 games that the filters point in one direction. The ATS record is 17-1-1 in these games. The only losing exception is the 49ers-Bengals 20-16 classic in which the 49ers qualified with two filters (#1 and #4), dominated the game in total yards by a 2 to 1 margin but only won by 4 points. The Steelers vs. Cowboys of 1978 qualifies as the push---and Dallas scored 14 late to get that.

Ironically, the first filters DON’T APPLY Significantly THIS YEAR. But let’s keep digging at my other filters.

A few more things to remember about the Super Bowl:

I. We have all heard the cliches that offense sells tickets and defenses win championships. Fact or Myth????:

Let's see:

First, let's see how the dominant offenses have done in this category.

Let's use this CRITERIA: (Lead the NFL in scoring and score 500 points)

2004 Colts (522) loses to New England 20-3 in the divisional playoffs
2001 St. Louis Rams (503 points) loses to New England in Super Bowl 20-17
2000 St. Louis Rams (540 points) loses to New Orleans in wildcard playoffs
1999 St. Louis Rams (526 points) beats Titans 23-16 in Super Bowl
1998 Minnesota (556 points) loses to Falcons in NFC Championship
1995 San Francisco (505 points) beats San Diego 49-26 in Super Bowl
1984 Miami (513 points) loses to SF 38-16 in Super Bowl
1983 Washington (541 points) loses to Raiders 38-9

Having an explosive offense by itself is not enough. Only 2 out of 8 won the Super Bowl.

Let's check out dominant defenses with this CRTIERIA: Led league in scoring defense and allowed under 200

2002: Tampa (195 points allowed) beat Raiders 48-21
2000: Baltimore (165 points allowed) beat Giants 34-7 in Super Bowl
1986: Chicago (187 points allowed) lost to Redskins in playoffs
1985 Chicago (198 allowed) beat New England 46-10 in Super Bowl
1978 Steelers (195 allowed) beat Dallas 35-31

4-0 SU AND 3-0-1 ATS when reaching the Super Bowl

II. Another thing to watch: Poor defenses struggle in the Super Bowl. This years Giants have allowed 351 regular season points.

Let's see what teams allowing 300 points have done:

2006 Colts (360 allowed) won 29-17 over the Bears
2003 Carolina (304 allowed) Lost to Patriots 32-29 but covered
2002 Oakland (304 allowed) lost to Tampa 48-21
1999 Titans (324 allowed) lost to Rams 23-16
1998 Denver (309) beat Falcons 34-19
1996 Patriots (313) lost to Packers 21-35
1995 Steelers (327) lost to Cowboys 17-27
1994 Chargers (306) lost to 49ers 26-49
1991 Bills (318) lost to Redskins 24-37
1988 Bengals (329) lost 49ers 16-20
1986 Broncos (327) lost to Giants 20-39
1983 Raiders and Redskins both qualify---throw it out
1981 Cincy (304) lost to 49ers 21-26
1980 Raiders (306) beat the Eagles 27-10
1979 Rams (309) lost to the Steelers 19-31

So there have been 14 Super Bowls with one team allowing 300 points---and that team has lost 11 times. Note the 1998 Broncos had an offense that scored over 500 (though it didn't lead the league in scoring) to bail it out. The 1980 Raiders stand out as the lone exception that doesn't make sense. If you have a poor defense----YOU BETTER HAVE AN OFFENSE TO COVER YOU.


One other interesting stat is Regular Season Scoring net Differential. This is important in picking the SU winner not necessarily the ATS winner.



THis year Patriots +315, Giants +22


2006 Bears +172 Colts +67
2005 Seahawks +181 Steelers +131
2004 after 14 weeks Pats +147, Eagles +164 (Eagles mailed in the last two)
2003 Panthers +21, Patriots +110 (Pats win 32-29)
2002 Bucs +150, Raiders +146 (Bucs win 48-21)
2001 Rams +230, Pats +99 (Pats win 20-17)
2000 Ravens +168, Giants +82 (Ravens win 34-7)
1999 Rams +284, Titans +68 (Rams win 23-16)
1998 Broncos +192, Falcons +153 (Broncos win 34-19)
1997 Denver +185, GB +140 (Broncos win 31-24)
1996 GB +246, Pats +105 (Packers win 35-21)
1995 Dallas +144, Steelers +80 (Cowboys win 27-17)
1994 SF +209, SD +75 (49ers win 49-26)
1993 Dallas +145, Buffalo +87 (Dallas wins 30-13)
1992 Dallas +166, Buffalo +98 (Dallas wins 52-17)
1991 Wash. 261, Buffalo +140 (Wash. wins 37-24)
1990 Buffalo 165, Giants +124 (Giants win 20-19)
1989 SF 189, Denver +136 (SF wins 55-10)
1988 Cin 119, SF +75 (SF wins 20-16)
1987 Den 91, Wash 94 (Wash. wins 42-10)
1986 Giants +135, Denver +51 (Giants win 39-20)
1985 Bears +258, Pats +72 (Bears win 46-10)
1984 49ers +248, Miami +215 (49ers win 38-16)
1983 Redskins +209, Raiders +104 (Raiders win 38-9)

There are four tidbits to draw from the net differential data

Note: the team with the higher differential is 17-7 SU in the last 24 Super Bowls

Note: If your team has a higher differential and IS THE UNDERDOG: your team (1987 Wash., 1988 Cincy, 1997 Denver, 2002 Tampa, 2004 Philly (after 14 weeks)), 2006 Bears is 5-2 ATS and 3-4 SU DOES APPLY THIS YEAR

Note: If your team has a differential of +240 or more: it is 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS (1999 Rams, 1996 Packers, 1991 Redskins, 1985 Bears, 1984 49ers) DOES APPLY THIS YEAR

Note: If your team has a differential of less than 90: it is 3-8 SU and 4-6-1 ATS (ironically the 1980 Raiders defied these odds as well) Not good for the Giants today playing the team with the highest differential in history.

Note: If the differential between the teams is 80 or more, the stronger team is 9-3 SU

Another FILTER FOR DEFENSE: Bet against any team that allowed more than 21 in its previous game as they are 3-7 ATS:

2006 Colts (34) beat the Bears 29-17
2004 Patriots (27) won but no cover 24-21 over the Eagles
2002 Raiders (24) got blitzed 48-21
2001 Rams Lost 20-17 as 14 point chalk
1998 Falcons got routed 34-19
1995 Cowboys (27) failed to cover as 13 point chalk 27-17 in a close game all the way
1994 49ers (28) won and covered big 49-26 as 18 point chalk. Their allowing 28 was against a Dallas team that won 3 Super Bowls in 4 years and was in the PRE-FREE AGENCY ERA so most players were still there.
1987 Broncos (33) were smoked as small chalk 42-10
1984 Miami (28) were drilled 38-16 by the 49ers
1980 Raiders (27) They destroy every filter


Here is a FINAL FILTER: PICK THE BETTER SCORING DEFENSE IF THE DIFFERENTIAL IS 35 or more points

Look at points allowed in the regular season. Look back over the years since we went to 16 games and see how a 35 point disparity shows up in this game. I excluded the strike impacted 1982 and 1987 seasons

1978 Steelers (195) 35 Cowboys (208) 31
1979 Steelers (262) 31 Rams (309) 19
1980 Raiders (306) 27 Eagles (222) 10 (these Raiders of 1980 destroy every filter)
1981 49ers (250) 26 Bengals (304) 21
1983 Raiders (338) 38 Redskins (332) 9
1984 49ers (227) 38 Dolphins (298) 16
1985 Bears (198) 46 Patriots (290) 10
1986 Giants (236) 39 Broncos (327) 20
1988 49ers (294) 20 Bengals (329) 16
1989 49ers (253) 55 Broncos (226) 10
1990 Giants (211) 20 Bills (263) 19
1991 Redskins (224) 37 Bills (318) 24
1992 Cowboys (243) 52 Bills (281) 17
1993 Cowboys (229) 30 Bills (242) 13
1994 49ers (296) 49 Chargers (306) 26
1995 Cowboys (291) 27 Steelers (327) 17
1996 Packers (210) 35 Patriots (313) 21
1997 Broncos (287) 31 Packers (282) 24
1998 Broncos (309) 34 Falcons (289) 19
1999 Rams (242) 23 Titans (324) 16
2000 Ravens (165) 34 Giants (246) 7
2001 Patriots (272) 20 Rams (273) 17
2002 Bucs (196) 48 Raiders (304) 21
2003 Patriots (238) 32 Panthers (304) 29
2004 Eagles 202 Patriots 246 (after 14 weeks) 24-21
2005 Seahawks (271) 10 Steelers (258) 21
2006 Colts 360 Bears 255 Colts win 29-17
2007 Patriots 274 Giants 351

Here is what stands out:

1. When there is a 35 point disparity in scoring defense, the better defense is 16-3 SU and 12-5-2 ATS


Today: 5* Patriots -12

This game today is an absolute no brainer. The (+240 teams) '84 49ers, '85 Bears, '91 Redskins, '96 Packers, '99 Rams have absolutely terrorized lesser teams.

The Giants play the perfect foil allowing over 350 points and bringing a +22 differential. The only team with a lower differential was the Panthers that lost to the Patriots.

The Giants took advantage of their situation to get to the Super Bowl. They caught a rusty Bucs team that had rested players, a rusty Cowboy team that was out of synch with TO gimpy, and then the game in the Lambeau elements which served as an equalizer of sorts.

I rode the Giants all the way to here.........but I got off at the last stop in Lambeau.

Here are two more compelling facts:

There have been six common games: at the Bills, home with the Jets, at the Dolphins, at the Cowboys, home Redskins, home Eagles.

Here are the Results

at Bills------------Pats 56-10 Giants 38-21
at Dolphins-------Giants 13-10 Pats 49-28
home Jets--------Giants 35-24 Pats 20-10
at Cowboys -----Giants 35-45 Pats 48-27
home Redskins-------Giants 10-22 Pats 52-7
home Eagles------Giants 16-3 Pats 31-28


average score: Giants 24.5-20.8 (+3.7) Pats 42.6-18.3 (+24.3) By sheer numbers you could subtract these out and make a case the Pats should be about 20 point chalk.


Look at the regular season finale in Giants stadium. The Giants run a kickoff back, Eli plays near perfect, and the Patriots still have a 10 point lead at the 4 minute mark. It's going to take turnovers and special teams to keep this game today anywhere near competitive.

This Super Bowl is so reminiscient of the 49er-Charger Super Bowl. I eagerly layed the 18 points in that game.

Are the Patriots the greatest team ever? In my mind no------they are one of the 5 best. The 84 49ers are probably the best--------they beat the Giants 21-10, the Bears 23-0 (the year before they did the Super Bowl shuffle), and the Marino team 38-16 while going 18-1. The '91 Redskins had probably the greatest offensive line to play the game but Brady is so much better than Rypien. The Redskins scored 485 in their regular season and rested their players in week 16. How good was their offensive line??????? Going hard in week 16 they would have hung 500 points in a season with Mark Rypien!

I think this Patriot team ranks with the 94 49ers. The difference is the 49ers lost three offensive lineman from weeks 2-5. They lost two games. They got healthy and then plastered everyone else. The 49ers only lost a week 16 game when they rested all the regulars against the Vikings.

One thing about these Patriots. They are not the most complete team in NFL history. Their defense is quite good but nowhere near elite. But they are probably the most explosive team in NFL history on a fast track in good weather. They have scored at will this year unless they faced cold or blustery weather. It will be perfect weather today........so the points will come in bunches.

I will make a prediction. Take the Patriots halftime score -3.5 over the Giants total game score.

Today is no the day to get cute. Lay the wood! Patriots 42-17