Anyone Notice this?

[white_tiger]

Normally when we can only find 2-3 good spots to place a bet in on sunday this is when most of the bet that make no sense will win.
However, when the line comeout and alot of teams look too good to bet is is when we see big trouble come. Here is some example from yesterday game with some solid capper here at the mall.
#1. GG "I really like the card this week" and come with 1 GOY and 5 10* bom damn look ugly ( Sorry GG I just share my though to everyone)
#2. Bustamove with 2 10* and couples of big game also went down.
#3. KOW couples of big game also last 30* on Phi also went down.
#4. Jeffersonsport (service play) This guy run really good in football with 2-3 plays perweek and went about 71% last 4-5week. All sudden he went 6 game on sunday. He also said that " I know it's too many game and I can't cut any down... as a result he went 1-5 for the day.

Vegas do this to trap sometimes????
Share you though please.

WT.

[Vegaswiseguy]

NO White Tiger VEGAS does NOT set traps !

They have NO Clue who is going to win or Cover all they do know is the public betting history and adjust lines acorridingly !

AND BOY are they WRONG a LOT of TIMES

PHONy lines where YOU thought it was a sucker BET

FALCONS - 1 point over saints

RAVENS - 1 ponit @ TExans

looks like a GIFT right ? LOOK YOU only have to WIN by two points see how easy it is ?

WEELL all i knew was the DOGS defensive rankings were far from Opponets and HAMMERED Ravens and FALCONS

you would think a close game with 1 point spreads Right ?

NOPE Falcons won 34 - 20

RAVENS WON 41 - 13

o yeah i got screwed Dolphins 9 point fav vs Seattle

west to east for Seaattle

BUT Forgot That PHINS WON as a DOG last week and are 100% losers ATS when favored after DOG wins !

SO they won by 2 points 21- 19

CHargers also WON by 1 point as a huge 15 1/2 point fav

[Knockonwood]

WT, I agree with you 100% and I will remember next time....I already knew this but was not smart enough to not play....I will never go with the average Joe, I just will not play...I've seen this many of times and we'll see it again...I'm very proud of you for seeing this and most people will say you're crazy but trust me you're not.....Vegas set the lines for the public yesterday and i can't stress this enough....Vegas knows who the average person is going to take every game and pretty well know the outcome of every game....Heck, I'll go on the street and ask 20 people who they like every game and I can have written down what 18 out of 20 will say....People won money yesterday who normally don't, you have to let the public hit....This works in all sports, that's why I swept the board in the NBA yesterday, Sunday is a books day in the NBA....It's hard for me to put into words what I need to say but you are 100% correct and I'll go to my grave believing that....They will set a game up for the public every now and then and that's how it works.....That's why I make my lines and study lines...I could give a crap who plays and who doesn't, it's all in the lines....People put all their time in studying ball games, when it's all in the line....I'm on your side WT, call me crazy if you like...................Knock!

[Jahred]

people going over their heads yesterday

rookie shit

[xxxFTWxxx]

bad variance.

i bet like i always do and got killed.

wont change a thing, nothing like being back to square one though after a hard year of work

[Knockonwood]

I went over my head yesterday Red and I'm a far cry from a rookie...It's a gamble and I was on the wrong side, that's how it goes....I'm not crying about it though, you put it behind you and move on to the next day....If you can't take the losing you need to get out of the game....I speak for myself when I say this but me personally, far cry from a rookie...Have a Good day, Knock! FT, if you only play football, it was a sad day....If you play every sport, just another day at the office....I hated losing yesterday but I hate losing any day....You forget that hole and move on to the next....You take a bad day and learn from it, just like you take a good day and learn from it.....Right now, I'm just worried about S.F. tonite and really not worried....If I lose I lose but I think it's a Very Good play....I thought yesterday was good plays also Knock!

[UDP]

We all know Vegas set up the line and it going up or down depending on how heavy public play on it. When we catch the game, ofcouse we use our knowledge and experience, but remember that 50 % be fortunated. One day we win and other day we lost that is the way we play. Keys for gamble are to control games and manage $$$ well. Yesterday Game make me shocked is Sandiego vs Kan. Ten and Bal won, no surprize for me at all because they are really good and healthy teams.

[mrwho]

i dunno what the fuss was all about yesterday..it was just another regular weekend for me..i lost 400 due to me being stupid for the snf game and needed some action..i take it some went crazy bc a couple of cappers had some big plays listed. money managment is the key people.

[Slyce]

Originally Posted by xxxFTWxxx

bad variance.

i bet like i always do and got killed.

wont change a thing, nothing like being back to square one though after a hard year of work

Couldn't have said it better myself!

[white_tiger]

Originally Posted by Knockonwood

I went over my head yesterday Red and I'm a far cry from a rookie...It's a gamble and I was on the wrong side, that's how it goes....I'm not crying about it though, you put it behind you and move on to the next day....If you can't take the losing you need to get out of the game....I speak for myself when I say this but me personally, far cry from a rookie...Have a Good day, Knock! FT, if you only play football, it was a sad day....If you play every sport, just another day at the office....I hated losing yesterday but I hate losing any day....You forget that hole and move on to the next....You take a bad day and learn from it, just like you take a good day and learn from it.....Right now, I'm just worried about S.F. tonite and really not worried....If I lose I lose but I think it's a Very Good play....I thought yesterday was good plays also Knock!

I would place the same bet again also KOW. Only thing I learn now is that when too many plays show up same week I will try to play it smaller next time.

WT.

[Knockonwood]

It depends on your bankroll.....Very rare do I not come out on the plus side in every sport.....I'm willing to gamble, I played a $3000 play for myself...more than normal but I'm willing to risk....I'm willing to throw all my winnings on one game for the year and that's how I play.....I start over tonite but in the end I'll probably be the same even without yesterday....As long as you're playing with the books money you can bet however makes you happy....I start with the same amount in every sport, if I lose it I'm done for the season and I wait till the next sport.....Don't remember the last time I had to wait....I'm thinking about throwing half the roll on tonites game but we'll see...One * to me is a $100 but one * to someone who follows might be $10....I played $3000 last nite but that's how I play and it's been working for many of years....Don't bet if it's going to hurt the next day.....People ask me all the time what to do and my answer is Don't bet......It's hard to beat the book.......By game time tonite though, I may have $5000 on the game....I'm just waiting and listening....Wish the Best to Everyone though.....Just be smart and don't bet it if you don't have it...It's not worth getting sick over.......I've seen more people sick than I can count...I post only because I hope I can help someone....I would really not like to post my games.......It makes me sick to think someone followed and got hurt...Much less stress not posting.........................Wood!

[Knockonwood]

I agree WT, so help remind me

[wal66]

Just a matter of opinion but from alot of the post I read yesterday it seemed more like people were trying to trick the line more than the lines trying to trick them.

San Diego -14 ( depending when you got it ) against Kansas City who absolutely sucks but has one thing going for them, they are the best team over the last three seasons covering a double digit line. Add to that, that you either take the points or pass on the game in the NFL on double digit games no matter how bad the dog is.

Tennessee, read all the post about what frauds Tennessee is. They have played nobody, once they face a real defense drunky boy Collins will fail and so on. It is almost like because they are Plain Janes people want to see them fail. The truth is they simply win football games. Consistant and solid with no-one standing out as a super star they simply play solid defense ball control low risk offense and make fewer mistakes than the opponent.

Houston, exactly what has Houston done this season to make them a strong play against Baltimore. True the Ravens have lost a game here and there they should have won but they are still a top defense and a decent enough team to be favored against Houston.

Philadelphia, granted they aren't a bad team by any means but you can't seriously think they are better than the Giants either. True the Giants got embarrassed by the Browns a couple games back but week in week out how many times is that gonna happen. They are arguably the best team playing right now so fading them is much more a risk than playing them.

I even saw several plays for Detroit. As bad as Jacksonville has performed this season how could anyone honestly think that Culpepper with onlt three days practice was gonna step in and make Detroit suddenly respectable enough to beat a less than typical Jacksonville team?

I think people made themselves see things that weren't there more than Vegas tried to trap anyone. If you can step back and really evaluate the games maybe you will see where I am coming from.

Like I said this is just my take on yesterday.

Oh and by the way.............I did it myself trying to play St Louis.

[white_tiger]

Originally Posted by wal66

Just a matter of opinion but from alot of the post I read yesterday it seemed more like people were trying to trick the line more than the lines trying to trick them.

San Diego -14 ( depending when you got it ) against Kansas City who absolutely sucks but has one thing going for them, they are the best team over the last three seasons covering a double digit line. Add to that, that you either take the points or pass on the game in the NFL on double digit games no matter how bad the dog is.

Tennessee, read all the post about what frauds Tennessee is. They have played nobody, once they face a real defense drunky boy Collins will fail and so on. It is almost like because they are Plain Janes people want to see them fail. The truth is they simply win football games. Consistant and solid with no-one standing out as a super star they simply play solid defense ball control low risk offense and make fewer mistakes than the opponent.

Houston, exactly what has Houston done this season to make them a strong play against Baltimore. True the Ravens have lost a game here and there they should have won but they are still a top defense and a decent enough team to be favored against Houston.

Philadelphia, granted they aren't a bad team by any means but you can't seriously think they are better than the Giants either. True the Giants got embarrassed by the Browns a couple games back but week in week out how many times is that gonna happen. They are arguably the best team playing right now so fading them is much more a risk than playing them.

I even saw several plays for Detroit. As bad as Jacksonville has performed this season how could anyone honestly think that Culpepper with onlt three days practice was gonna step in and make Detroit suddenly respectable enough to beat a less than typical Jacksonville team?

I think people made themselves see things that weren't there more than Vegas tried to trap anyone. If you can step back and really evaluate the games maybe you will see where I am coming from.

Like I said this is just my take on yesterday.

Oh and by the way.............I did it myself trying to play St Louis.

Well it really depend on which angle you try to use in capping the game. Someone just traight up stats play and still win the game at the end of the season just because they so good at the stats and ect..... Other meanwhile try to win the game by look at fishy and trapline. The also will win by the season end if they so good at reading the line move and ect......
Yesterday was the day that good for straight up stats players and bad for trap and trick line bettors.
Just like Poker TAG and LAG players both type will win at the end if you know how to handle the game well.

WT.

[NFLMAN]

Easy to handicap games that have already beed played.

Let's talk about next weeks lines:

New Orleans -5 at Kansas City - Should be pick em

Dallas -2 at Washington - Should be Redskins -3

Chargers +4.5 at Pittsburgh - Should be Steelers -9.5

Houston +9.5 at Indianapolis - Should be Colts -4.5

5 points off on every game