ATS Streak/Against Public % System....

[hungjury]

I'm back! I took a season off, last year, but I'm back for this year.

Two season ago, some of you might remember the "betting against the ATS streak", after 2 or more straight wins/loses ATS by an NFL team. The record of the program was around 60% (would've been better but the Dolphins had a 7 or 8 game ATS losing streak 2 seasons ago).

I want to follow this betting system, this year, but also add a different component to it. I want to include the normal ATS streaks, plus include the public's betting percentages (using the "bet against the public" mentality).

In other words, I'll keep the season record of the normal ATS streaks and the streaks when the public is on the side of the winning/losing team at 60%, 70% or 80%.

I kept the record of the teams, last week, with 2 ATS wins or loses and the record was 6-3 (66.6%) but I didn't get the public percentages.

This week, I'll start putting the system up, an hour or so before kickoff, with both systems.

Here are this week's early games, with their ATS winning/losing streaks with public percentages:

Won 2 ATS

1. Tampa Bay (45%) -1.5
2. San Fran (38%) +4.0

Won 3 ATS

1. Tennessee (69%) -3.0

Lost 2 ATS

1. Houston (39%) +7.0
2. NY Jets (54%) -1.0
3. KC (31%) +10.0

So, for these early games, if you wanted to bet the normal ATS system, you would bet AGAINST the above teams trends (total of 6 picks). For example, Houston has lost 2 straight games ATS, so you would bet FOR Houston this week. Tampa Bay has won the last 2 games ATS, so you would bet AGAINST Tampa this week.

Now, if you wanted to narrow the system and bet against the streaks AND against the public (no past historical data available), then only bet against the streaks with the percentages in BLUE (total of 3 picks).

Ok, I hope I explained this adequately. I'm not the best at explaining things, sometimes.

I'll post the late games about an hour before kickoff, to make sure we get accurate public percentages.

Again, last week's "betting against the ATS streak" went 6-3. But the record starts at 0-0, since that wasn't documented on this site.

Good luck everyone!

[mark12]

Looks good. Doing something similar with ATS streaks. GL with yours.

[jonnyblaze]

Seems cool except where are you getting your percentages ?

[hungjury]

Originally Posted by jonnyblaze

Seems cool except where are you getting your percentages ?

There are two sites that I found that have the percentages. One is delayed 20 minutes and one is free and updates instantly. I'm not sure if I'm allowed to mention the sites or not, though.

Can I?

[hgldls]

i love this system

JETS and KC!!!!!!!!!

[hungjury]

Here are the afternoon games:

Won 2

1. Washington (54%) +10.5
2. Oakland (20%) +8.0

Lost 3

1. St. Louis (31%) +9.0

The early games looks like a 3-3 split with the straight up ATS system. And is looking like a 2-1 ATS/Public system. But we all know how that changes in a snap!

Good Luck!

[slowpoke]

Originally Posted by hungjury

Here are the afternoon games:

Won 2

1. Washington (54%) +10.5
2. Oakland (20%) +8.0

Lost 3

1. St. Louis (31%) +9.0

The early games looks like a 3-3 split with the straight up ATS system. And is looking like a 2-1 ATS/Public system. But we all know how that changes in a snap!

Good Luck!

So the plays are?
1.Dallas
2.SD

1. Buff

just to clarify

best of luck!!

[hgldls]

STL lost 3 in a row, so it is to BET ON STL!!!

[hungjury]

Here are last week's results:

Won 2 ATS

1. Tampa Bay (45%) -1.5 Loss
2. San Fran (38%) +4.0 Won
3. Washington (54%) +10.5 Loss
4. Oakland (20%) +8.0 Won
5. Baltimore +6.0 Loss

Won 3 ATS

1. Tennessee (69%) -3.0 Loss
2. Philadelphia -3.0 Won

Lost 2 ATS

1. Houston (39%) +7.0 Won
2. NY Jets (54%) -1.0 Won
3. KC (31%) +10.0 Won
4. Pittsburgh -6.0 Loss

Lost 3 ATS

1. St. Louis (31%) +9.0 Loss

The overall results for Week 4 in the NFL was 6-5 (55%) (since Balt/Pitt both had a 2 opposite game ATS streak and played each other, only one loss is counted).

Games in which the ATS streaks AND Betting Against The Public were on the same side (percentages in blue) had a 2-2 (50%) record.

I do believe that the ATS streaks with Betting Against The Public system will prove to be a big winner by the end of the season.

The overall ATS streak results proved a winner last year, with some bad weeks but there were some 70% and 80% winning weeks, as well.

It should be fun to see how this pans out!

I'll post the streaks with percentages for this week's games, tomorrow.

[hungjury]

Week 5 early games:

Won 2 ATS (2-3, 40%)

1. San Diego (58%) -6.0

Won 3 ATS (1-1, 50%)

1. Washington (55%) +6.5

Lost 2 ATS (3-1, 75%)

1. Green Bay (70%) -5.0

Lost 3 ATS (0-1, 0%)

1. Detroit (38%) +3.0


Again, you can use just the ATS streak system and bet AGAINST the above streaks.

Or you can narrow it down further and only bet the games where the public betting (60% or higher) compliments the trend of the ATS streak. Those games have the team percentages in blue.

Because it's hard for NFL teams to have a win/loss ATS streak of 4 or more, Detroit has the streak AND the public (or in this case less public) on their side. It looks like a solid pick. But this is a new system so there is no history to look back on.

I'll also follow the heavy public games, starting this week. Here are the heavy public teams (60% or higher) in the early games:

1. Indianapolis (81%) -3.0
2. Tennessee (64%) -2.0
3. Chicago (62%) -3.0
4. Green Bay (70%) -5.0

Good Luck everyone!

[Victor]

Good luck hungjury!

[hungjury]

Three out of the four early games are well within winning plays. Let's see how they pan out.

Here are the afternoon games to play:

Won 2 ATS

1. Jacksonville (62%) -5.5

Won 3 ATS

1. Tampa Bay (34%) +3.5

Lost 2 ATS

1. Denver (66%) -3.5
2. Arizona (42%) -2.5

Here are the high public teams for the afternoon games:

1. New England (74%) -3.0
2. Jacksonville (62%) -5.5
3. Denver (66%) -3.5

There is only one double system play and that's Jacksonville with a 2 game ATS win streak AND heavy betting from the public. Playing against the streak and against the public is the play on Jacksonville.

Good Luck!

[wkbrdr03]

I'm sorry, I'm a little confused, the play is AGAINST JAX, correct?

[hungjury]

Tonights play is:

Won 2 ATS (4-3 57%)

1. New Orleans (74%) -3.0

New Orleans has the streak going against them, plus the public. This system is 3-3 (50%) after 2 weeks.

To clarify, you would want to bet AGAINST N.O.

I will post the complete results for Week 5 in a few days.

[hungjury]

Originally Posted by wkbrdr03

I'm sorry, I'm a little confused, the play is AGAINST JAX, correct?

Yes it was. Sorry for the late reply.