Bears-Packers break down

[Thunder]

Chicago Bears (11-5) v. Green Bay Packers (10-6)
Teams are 1-1 heads up this year with the Bears winning in week 3 20-17 at home and the Packers winning 10-3 in week 17 in Green Bay. This break down is by position with a few intangibles thrown in.

Quarterback
Jay Cutler surprised everyone against Seattle last week (because there’s supposed to be so much pressure on your 1st playoff start) by playing pretty well. He did get away with one throw at the goal line but it was hard to tell if Knox did not run the route properly or not. Cutler is a very capable QB with a penchant for going downfield. He will need to pick his spots and not become too daring. He also has very good mobility which when utilized has really helped the Bears’ offense this season.

Aaron Rodgers is playing at an incredible level right now. This guy is accurate, can make any throw on the field and possesses terrific presence once flushed in and out of the pocket. The Bears have really held their own against him in the past but he is clearly playing at a different level right now.

Advantage: Packers

Running Back
Matt Forte will never be a break away back that is going to rush for 1500+ yds. In the NFL. But what he does bring is the ability to catch the ball out the backfield, ball security and the capability to get tough yardage inside and out. Chester Taylor has done very little for this team so he becomes a non-factor.

James Starks has given the Pack a bit of a boost but I think it has been exaggerated due to the poor running attack Green Bay had all year. Brandon Jackson is below average and neither is home run hitter. Jackson will catch the ball out of the backfield but is no major threat. John Kuhn will give you some quality short yardage runs and catches but there isn’t much here.

Advantage: Bears (big)

Wide Receivers
The Bears lack a big receiver that will go up and make a play. It was supposed to be Aromashodu but he never emerged. This group has terrific speed and can beat you deep. They will go over the middle but just for short crossings routes for the most part and not the tough catches. All in all, this is a below average group.

The Packers have a terrific group of wide receivers that can beat you in so many ways. Jennings is a top flight WR and Donald Driver still has terrific hands and big play ability. Throw in James Jones and Jordy Nelson and they may be the deepest group in the league. The Packers WR’s get match ups and take full advantage of them.

Advantage: Packers (big)

Tight Ends
With the loss of Jermichael Finley the Packers don’t use their TE’s much anymore. Greg Olsen is a hit or miss type of player that can be a great target in the red zone or beat you deep at times. Then again, he may disappear and be a non-factor. For this reason, the advantage is not greater.

Advantage: Bears

Offensive Line
Early in the season the Bears o-line had a lot of struggles. But since that time they have gelled and stayed relatively healthy. Both tackles can get beat on pass rushes one on one (not a good sign against this team) but their run blocking can be very good at times.

The Packers have a group that is much maligned because of the sacks given up last year and the lack of running game this year. But their o-line tends to get the job done in the passing game and that has been a formula for success up to this point.

Advantage: Push

Defensive Line
The Bears feature Julius Peppers—a player that didn’t put up monster statistics but changes a game in so many other ways. He has made Israel Idonije a much better player and even allowed Tommie Harris to be mediocre at times. With a rotation that is 7 or 8 deep, this squad keeps coming at you the entire game with fresh legs.

The Packers run a 3-4 and the d-lineman they have do their job well. The big guys stuff things up the middle but they don’t get to the QB very much. The Packers rely more on scheme and blitzes to do this.
Advantage: Bears

Linebackers
Chicago finally has a healthy Urlacher and combined with Briggs can be the best duo in the league in flashes. They play both the run and pass equally well. Their problem is finding consistency with their strong side linebacker.

The Packers had one of the deepest groups in the league here before the injury bug hit. But even with that they still have the defensive MVP in Clay Matthews and a very capable run stopper in AJ Hawk. Matthews is the wild card. The guy makes big plays all the time.

Advantage: Packers (slight)

Defensive Backs
Chicago tends to play not to get beat deep. Their cover two requires this for any success. They are sure tacklers, give good run support and can cause turnovers. Charles Tillman has played the best of all of them but it is not the strong point of this defense.

Green Bay has two legitimate prop bowlers in Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams. Woodson can make a game changing play with his blitzes and Williams had 6 int’s this year. Throw Nick Collins in and you have a very good group.

Advantage: Packers

Kickers
Robbie Gould is an accurate FG kicker but does not have the strongest leg in the league. Mason Crosby is a step above with a better leg. Both punters do well but Brad Maynard seems to pin opponents when desperately needed.

Advantage: Push (even though it may come down to one of them)

Return Game
The Bears have the biggest X factor in Devin Hester. When you kick to him you are putting your team at risk and when you don’t you can put your team in bad field position. Green Bay features no real threats either in kick offs nor punts. Danieal Manning is very solid on kick off returns as well with the ability to break one.

Advantage: Bears (huge)

Coaching
Lovie Smith has been here before but doesn’t seem to manage games very well. At times it almost seems like he lets his coordinators do too much without reigning them in. He has the experience advantage but that’s about it. Chicago also features two former head coaches on their staff in Mike Martz and Mike Tice. Tice has done well at times making in game adjustments but can also go through spells of confusion. And when Mike Martz is on he is one of the best play callers in the league. His undoing usually comes when he gets away form the run and tries to get cute.

Mike McCarthy has now been the head coach for a few years and has some playoff experience. He is known as one of the best play callers himself and is great at creating mismatches on offense. Green Bay also has Dom Capers , a former head coach and terrific defensive mind. His blitz packages are usually dialed up at the right time and with frequent success.

Advantage: Push

Intangibles
This series has been back and forth in recent years including this season. Of course, the Bears are at home and still have a lot of players from the team that made the super bowl a few years ago. The field conditions will be bad and I’m not sure how that might affect either team. Both possess speed and it remains to be seen if it will really slow either down.

Advantage: Bears (slight)

So all in all this is very even match up. It may come down to a kick in the end. I see two teams that know each other well and that played two very close games this season. I’m going out on a limb and saying the Bears win by a FG in OT after Green Bay decides to kick out of bounds to avoid Hester. Chicago makes one play and gets in field goal range.

Bears 23
Packers 20

Good luck either way you go.

[bt33]

I love your write-up, thanks for it, I hope you're right, I'm going to be betting big on them in Vegas this weekend.

[chibob]

Nice job Thunder

Tony Boselli, former top O linemen winner,, stated two days ago, "If I were to give a most improved award, it would be to the Bears Oline"

[darealist2]

I like the breakdown for the most part but there is no way the Packers have an advantage at LB. Clay Mathews is the most over-hyped guy I've seen.. he's a glorified pass rusher & AJ Hawk has never materialized into anything

Briggs, Urlacher, Tinoisomoa are all proven LB's that can do much more than just get after the pass rusher.

Agree that Bears win and it will be a HUGE play from me as I'm tired of all this Packers hype and Aaron hype..

[Thunder]

Tinoisomoa has been plaqued with injuries all year and a bit disappointing when he's been on the field....Hard to not give them the edge when they have the defensive MVP (in all likelihood)

[BlackHorse]

Every game is fixed so why bother to explain these nonsense statistic. Just bet the Packer and you will win. Public is all over Chicago (+3 1/2). Bears are playing at home and should be favorited by 3pts NOT +3 1/2!

[secondbase]

good read