Bengals Futures

[JSi922]

i already have dough on the jets

i also like the ravens and might put money on that at +2100, i think boldin is probably gonna be one of the most effective trades this offseason, helps that offense so much with a really good WR.

anyways im really liking the bengals at +3800. steelers are in trouble a little bit right now with QB situation, browns are browns and not a really big believe in the jags.

i look at this team and think antonio bryant is a big upgrade at their 2nd WR from last year. they have benson still to run the ball. palmer is palmer. their D is fairly young and gonna be just as good and they get back odom on the DL for the entire year hopefully. i think 38-1 isnt bad odds for a team i think wins the division fairly easily(easy isnt the right word im looking for) but maybe odds on favourite.

obviously want to see how these teams do in the draft as well, but 38-1 is hard to pass on.

[Romanowski]

not sure if you already have a position on the bengals...

if you do ill reserve my opinion on them...

let me know

[JSi922]

romo,

any thoughts are welcome, thats why i post on the board to hear all sides. and now from getting to know you more through your posts, i know you're a straightshooter and give your honest opinion on a play so are welcome to hear it.

you can chime in on the jets and ravens as well. only have a play on the jets

i have plays on boise state. this is actually the first time i have done futures. not a big fan of them because anything can happen.

[TheLink]

[QUOTE=JSi922;3793089]
anyways im really liking the bengals at +3800. steelers are in trouble a little bit right now with QB situation, browns are browns and not a really big believe in the jags.\QUOTE]


Ravens actually 4th team in that division. Not sure if that changes your thoughts at all.

[JSi922]

[QUOTE=TheLink;3793365]

Originally Posted by JSi922

anyways im really liking the bengals at +3800. steelers are in trouble a little bit right now with QB situation, browns are browns and not a really big believe in the jags.\QUOTE]


Ravens actually 4th team in that division. Not sure if that changes your thoughts at all.

haha i knew writing this when i was half awake wouldnt be good. i still like the bengals to win the division..ravens will challenge for sure. but i like both to make the playoffs.

[BigFratDaddy]

If you want my opinion if youre asking for 38-1 to win the division thats great value. But for the AFC or SUper Bowl thats another.

The main weakness for this team is in the trenches. I dont think they are very good on either side of the ball and therefore will get dominated again in the second half of the season like they did last year.

BOL though

[Romanowski]

generally speaking, books print money on futures, its not a +EV bet, again in general

if you can calculate odds, then rarely will you find a +EV future...

essentially a 20-1 bet, needs to cash 5% to break even...and so on, 40-1, 2.5%

so right off the bat, books have a substantial edge, its gotta be based on some "hunch"

or perhaps beating the market perception

back to the Jets, dont like it,

to me the pats, dolphins, and jets are on a very even playing field now,

and the phins are getting the least love, at 40-1, so obv thats the only team id consider in the afc east and did

consider these trends over the last decade

teams that have won 3 or more games from their prior year total, only 6 of them (13%) increased their win total again the following year.

teams that won 5 or more games from their prior year total, only 1 went on to increase their win total in the following year (Chicago went from 5 to 11 to 13 from 2004-2006).

In short, the bengals already had their breakout, surprise, play above their heads year....last year...

without even looking at the trends, I dont think they can repeat that production

Palmer is slow, the offense is largely one dimensional

absolutely love the ravens though

gl

[Bisket]

Palmer is terrible

[Romanowski]

this is just off the top of my head, when I assign a # next to each game

Ill be working on this in detail soon enough, but for now, a fractional # next to each game

its the "win expectation or percentage" a 0.9 for example represents 90% chance of a win, virtual lock and so on

Week 1: Sunday, Sep. 12 at Patriots 1:00 PM 0.44
Week 2: Sunday, Sep. 19 vs. Ravens 1:00 PM 0.5
Week 3: Sunday, Sep. 26 at Panthers 1:00 PM 0.5
Week 4: Sunday, Oct. 03 at Browns 1:00 PM 0.55
Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 10 vs. Buccaneers 1:00 PM 0.6
Week 6: BYE
Week 7: Sunday, Oct. 24 at Falcons 1:00 PM 0.45
Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 31 vs. Dolphins 1:00 PM 0.52
Week 9: Monday, Nov. 08 vs. Steelers 8:30 PM 0.5
Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 14 at Colts 1:00 PM 0.35
Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 21 vs. Bills 1:00 PM 0.6
Week 12: Thursday, Nov. 25 at Jets 8:20 PM 0.45
Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 05 vs. Saints 1:00 PM 0.35
Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 12 at Steelers 1:00 PM 0.45
Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 19 vs. Browns 1:00 PM 0.6
Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 26 vs. Chargers 8:20 PM 0.45
Week 17: Sunday, Jan. 02 at Ravens 1:00 PM 0.4

add them up = 7.7 or 8 wins

[Bisket]

brutal schedule

[Romanowski]

the dolphins schedule isnt much more forgiving, especially the first 10 weeks, then it gets easier

but i just have a hunch about them, which is what it comes down to

they also decreased their win total from 10 to 7 last year, which is good

[SteelCityPlayers]

Good info in here...thanks for the read