Betting a/g Public since '03

[Just Beginning]

I have seen some talk over the past few days about betting against the public in the NFL. I thought I would take a few hours to track it over the last 5 years by seeing what the record would have been for FADING the public at the 60%, 70%, and 80% thresholds. 90% didnt come up enough to draw any statistical conclusions. All numbers are per Sports Insights.


When Fading Joe:

2003

60% - 29/63 46%
70% - 29/54 53.7%
80% - 15/29 51.7%

2004

60% - 48/82 58%
70% - 20/49 40.8%
80% - 2/7 28%

2005

60% - 27/65 41%
70% - 22/65 33.8%
80% - 5/8 62.5%

2006

60% - 38/76 50%
70% - 42/67 62.6%
80% - 8/11 72%

2007

60% - 51/95 53.6%
70% - 29/60 48.3%
80% - 5/9 55%

2003-2007 Totals

60% - 193/381 50.6%
70% - 140/295 47%
80% - 35/64 54%

*These numbers depend entirely on the accuracy of the numbers at SportsInsights, which has been called into question. However, I believe the numbers are close enough to draw some conclusions.

In Conclusion,
As you can see, the books had some bad years as far as lop sided bets. These were probably more than made up for with other 50/50 bets and parlay/teaser bets. As you can see, this system isnt as profitable as you might think considering the 52.38% winners needed to break even in the long run. IMO, the best way to use this information is as a supplement to your current handicapping techniques. Hope it is useful. BOL to everyone!!!