Capping styles

[Icantcapforcrap]

Hey everybody,

I've been reading posts here at the mall for about 2 years now. Finally decided to ask some questions and get in on some of the conversations.

The actual word "capping" has always been a mystery to me.
The word makes it sound like there is a specific system to it. Almost like there is a right way and a wrong way, or right ways and wrong ways. It seems like there is really different methods for different games. I know there is systems that work because I know (I think I know) that is how line makers just about guarantee vegas profits week after week. The books always make money in the end.

I know when capping you want to look at match-ups, trends, records, strength of schedule, common opponents, public perception, line movement, all that stuff, but how do you assign actual value to your input? For me (i know i am an amateur at this) it seams the more I analyze things, the more wrong I become.

As a bettor, my best success has been with trying to figure out where the money is, and then fading that.

My question is. What ways to you assign value to games? How do you use the information given to come up with predictions?

Thanks ahead of time for anyone willing to share their thoughts with me.

[pwherr]

Flip a coin.Welome to the Mall.

[GFootsXtreme]

google "Las Vegas Sports Consultants", they set the opening lines still for many books and there is plenty to read about it.

in essence there is a "number" that a computer spits out that factors in all their different angles. then a group sits in a room and discusses each line and accounts for various factors they are "expert" in...for example, home field advantage, emotion, INJURIES, momentum, and of course, bettor/fan bias.

Some sports play out close to the "number", others are more influenced by the other factors that the experts are more aware of then most bettors.

[greatdivide]

bump

this is a great topic for discussion

[Romanowski]

lvsc isnt as respected as they were 5 -10 years ago

on screen books rule the day, not vegas

the linesmaking talent resides offshore....and cris opens, sometimes thegreek,

then as for balancing action, curacao and betphoenix, along with cris and thegreek are the books to watch

you really need to absorb a ton of tidbits over the years,

there isnt a post that can sum up what to do handicapping

[Icantcapforcrap]

I am beginning to realize that capping is more of an art or psychology than a math.
Football numbers are statistics and don't necessarily reflect actual values.

I just want to know how some people may do things/where they may start. I have been getting a lot of info from the write-ups here. There are professional analysts who get paid to do write-ups, you people do it for yourselves / to risk your own money. Much more reliable if you ask me.

So thanks to all of those who do occasionally explain their picks.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by Icantcapforcrap

I am beginning to realize that capping is more of an art or psychology than a math.
Football numbers are statistics and don't necessarily reflect actual values.

I just want to know how some people may do things/where they may start. I have been getting a lot of info from the write-ups here. There are professional analysts who get paid to do write-ups, you people do it for yourselves / to risk your own money. Much more reliable if you ask me.

So thanks to all of those who do occasionally explain their picks.

welcome to CM.

But how did you steal HoosierCatDaddy's true user name ???

[Money$$$]

bet against brandon lang

[Icantcapforcrap]

Originally Posted by Money$$$

bet against brandon lang

Ha. i've been hearing that for a while.

[Romanowski]

brother I live in the queen city ...myers park to be exact

selwyn pub is a walk away....*thank god* Ive been known to stumble out

[MCP313]

There are thousands of roads that to lead to winning and losing. Not sure how old you are or how long you have been gambling but over time you will develop you're own formula for what works and is the most comfortable for you.

[Icantcapforcrap]

Originally Posted by Romanowski

brother I live in the queen city ...myers park to be exact

selwyn pub is a walk away....*thank god* Ive been known to stumble out

I'm actually in gaston county now. I just don't like to admit it at times. I was born in charlotte though.