Chicago Bears UNDER - Love this NFL future

[Dr. Jack]

A future that I love

Chicago Bears - Under 8 -120 (the greek)

How the heck are the Bears going to score points and their D was terrible last year?

Grossman is terrible and they have nothing better.

They might have the worst wide receivers in all of football. Marty Booker is their #1? Lol. Marty Booker couldn't even be the #2 on the Dolphins with zero competition at WR plus he is getting older. Hester is #2, a great special teams guy but not sure about a solid receiver yet.

I know they drafted Forte but if he doesn't work out, all they have is the fake Adrian Peterson at running back. And how good is Forte?

The schedule

Here is what I see as probable losses

@ Indy
@ Carolina

Then they are at home for 2 against Tampa and Philly. No guarantee they win both of these so I am going to say 1-3 after 4 games.

Then @ Detroit and @ Atlanta - think they can probably split. 2-4 after 6 games.

Then they have a stretch of 3 home games with a bye week in between against Minny, Detroit, Tenn. At best they go 2-1. 4-5 after 9

A 3 game road stretch of GB, St. Louis, Minny. They could lose all 3 of these, but let's give them 1-2. 5-7 after 12.

Home games against Jax, New Orleans & GB. Can't see them winning more than 1 of these games. 6-9 after 15

@ Houston for the last game. This is a probable loss as well for Chicago. 6-10.

I think at worst, they win 2 of the games I have them as losses which would be a push but highly unlikely

Really like the under on this one. Thoughts?

[cuse_man]

When I look at under/over totals I like to think of "max" wins they could get.

For the bears I think after the first 4 1-3 might be good to go with...

lions and atl they could win both so 3-3

2-1 might be fair for the 3 home games but 3-0 not out of the question.. we could go with 2-1 though

5-4 1-2 seems fair for the next 3

6-5 1gmae for next 3 agreed

7-5 houston road game likely loss unless season is going better than expected

So on the same page, but really what would worry me is a 3 game home sweep early against minny/det/tenn then a win against houston would put them at 9 wins. If you say100% no way to winning those 4 then id say play it without question.

[Dr. Jack]

Agreed. That is the only way they hit 9 if they sweep those 3 and win @ Houston.

I don't think anything is 100% but I am willing to bet they can't win all 4 of those games. I just can't see how they are going to score points.

[cuse_man]

Originally Posted by Dr. Jack

Agreed. That is the only way they hit 9 if they sweep those 3 and win @ Houston.

I don't think anything is 100% but I am willing to bet they can't win all 4 of those games. I just can't see how they are going to score points.

Well yea.. I mean a gamblers 100% ( or close )

[Dr. Jack]

Originally Posted by cuse_man

Well yea.. I mean a gamblers 100% ( or close )

Yeah, a gamblers 100%

[cuse_man]

Also... as far as grossman. I don't love the guy or think hes that great... but to me it seems like he has been trashed so much he is not at the point where he is an underrated QB. Again... underrated doesn't mean hes good in the first place, but I don't think hes -AS- bad as people make him out to be. Said that last season when they finally took him out... was worse without imo

[Dr. Jack]

he still has no wide receivers. Unless Hester breaks out as a receiver, and Forte is a beast - they are going to struggle and if Grossman has to do it all by himself, that's when he is at his worst.

I do agree he si not as bad as most people say. He still stinks though. lol

[cuse_man]

pretty much lol

[cuse_man]

i dont really care for the bears at all... I thought it was really funny when the fans put enough pressure on the coaching staff to actually take grossman out. that was great set them back a bit

[PHILLYBIRDS20]

every team seems to win 1 or 2 they shouldnt and lose 1 or 2 they shouldnt but this team is a little different. They were so reliant on there defense and this in not the defense that is going to to win u the extra 1-2 games every year. Devin Hester will still be able to give them great field position but with that pos at QB I would be surprised to see anything but field goals come out of it. I think 7 is a max season for the Bears and 5 or 6 is not out of the realm of possibility. alot of 20-10 games I already bet this one but I unloaded on The Giants under 9 dont think they win 8 bol on ur play Jack I am in

[Kramer]

Dr.J try this :

1. The NFL is impossible to predict before the season starts. And,
2. Regression to the mean rules the day.

In practical terms, expert predictions, including the consensus Las Vegas over-under predictions, are bad primarily because they underestimate the annual tendency for bad teams to improve their records and good teams to worsen their records

that's the good news.

The bad news is our own predictions usually stink worse. Sometimes people get lucky and outguess Vegas or the experts, but over time, luck will catch up to you. So the trick is to take advantage of Vegas' flaws by applying the two lessons above, all the while ignoring our own predictions. Here's how:

1. Take the under on teams predicted to finish with 9.5 wins or more.
2. Take the over on teams predicted to finish with 6.5 wins or less.


And here's why:

1. Of the 18 teams predicted to have 9.5 wins or more, 13 finished the season under, and 5 finished over.
2. Of the 15 teams predicted to have 6.5 wins or fewer, 11 finished the season over, and 5 finished under.

Using these two rules, the '9.5 or more' teams would have yielded a net of 13-5=8 winning bets, and the '6.5 wins or fewer' teams would have yielded 11-4=7 winning bets.

This is from 2005 , 2006...


You need to factor in the vig. During the season, it's usually used to manage the action to equalize both sides of a bet. Given the unpredictability of forecasting mean season wins, the vig is very large on NFL futures

historical over-under data from 1996-2005.

Using the system as proposed, a bettor would have won 86 out of 148 of his bets, a rate of over 58%.

Although not the 70% rate over the past two years, it would remain a safe and lucrative system. I'm guessing most professional gamblers would settle for 58% winning rate over a 10 year period.

[cuse_man]

but your betting blind kramer

[Dr. Jack]

True, Kramer good stuff - if you are betting blind. It might be a winning proposition but I prefer to find 1-3 totals I really like. Most of the #s are right on and of course you can get lucky with a few but I think you can find 1-2 that the odds are in your favor.

Good stuff though

[jim1701]

Have you added/looked at the backups? We all know injuries play a big part in futures due to the fact they cannot be predicted during a season. So do the BEARS have ANYONE who can be a stand-out star if one of their starters go down? Seems like the answer is no...so the bet is even better IMO.

[Dr. Jack]

Originally Posted by jim1701

Have you added/looked at the backups? We all know injuries play a big part in futures due to the fact they cannot be predicted during a season. So do the BEARS have ANYONE who can be a stand-out star if one of their starters go down? Seems like the answer is no...so the bet is even better IMO.