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Old 10-10-2017, 05:33 PM
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Close Calls - Week 5
October 10, 2017


Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in Week 5 of the NFL regular season.

New England Patriots (-3½) 19, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 (54½): Week 5 was expected to open with a shootout between great passing offenses going against struggling pass defenses. After a slow start, 10 points in the final four minutes of the first half put New England up 13-7 and at least kept popular ‘over’ bets in play. The third quarter didn’t feature a change of pace as the Patriots settled for another field goal, leading 16-7 to sit ahead of a favorite spread that reached as high as -5½ before sliding downward Thursday afternoon and evening. New England fumbled on a Tom Brady sack in Tampa Bay territory late in the third quarter, but the Buccaneers couldn’t take advantage with a missed field goal.

Tampa Bay had the same result on its next possession, going 84 yards but watching Nick Folk miss from just 31 yards with about six minutes remaining in the game to all but lock up the ‘under.’ The Patriots were forced to punt and Buccaneers backers had renewed hope as Jameis Winston led a touchdown drive just ahead of the two-minute-warning. Folk made the extra point for a two-point deficit. Tampa Bay had just one timeout remaining as they had to try the onside kick. New England recovered and started in great field position, eventually adding a 48-yard field goal for the five-point final margin. The Buccaneers threatened in the final seconds getting one play from the New England 19-yard-line but there was confusion on the routes towards the end zone for an incomplete pass that had little chance as the spread results were mixed depending on the timing.

Los Angeles Chargers (+3) 27, New York Giants 22 (46): In a battle of competitive 0-4 squads, the Giants took an early 9-0 lead with a safety and a touchdown run before injuries started to pile up for the offense. The Chargers managed a field goal in the final seconds before halftime to lead 10-9 before both teams managed touchdowns late in the third quarter to leave Los Angeles up by one as a slight underdog heading into the final frame. The Giants delivered a big play strike for what will wind up as Odell Beckham’s last touchdown of the season with a 48-yard catch and run to lead 22-17, missing going for two with still more than 13 minutes to play. The Chargers managed to climb back within the underdog spread with a field goal just after the five minute mark and then managed to steal the win with a 3rd-and-7 sack of Eli Manning at the 11-yard-line that led to a fumble recovered by the Chargers. Three plays later, the Chargers took the lead 27-22, a score that clinched a narrow win for the ‘over’ and the defense intercepted Manning just across midfield in the final minute to seal the first win for the franchise as the Los Angeles Chargers.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3) 20, Buffalo Bills 16 (39½): The Bengals had a severe production edge in this AFC clash, but with three costly turnovers, it was Buffalo with the lead 13-10 heading into the fourth quarter. Cincinnati responded with an early fourth quarter touchdown drive to lead by four, just past the home favorite spread. A marginal punt coupled with a strong return and an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty set the Bills up at the Cincinnati 12-yard-line with about 10 minutes remaining. The Bengals held Buffalo to a field goal, still leading 17-16, though now on the wrong side of the spread. Andy Dalton survived another close call for a turnover and the led the Bengals into the red zone with Randy Bullock hitting from 29 yards with just over three minutes remaining to restore the four-point advantage. Cincinnati’s defense stepped up with a 1st down sack and then intercepted Tyrod Taylor on a forced 3rd-and-long throw to wrap up the win and narrow cover, as well as keeping the game just ‘under’ a low total.

Miami Dolphins (-1) 16, Tennessee Titans 10 (41½): This game featured awful offense as while the Dolphins scored 10 points in the first quarter, they did so on a 19-yard drive for a field goal and with a fumble return touchdown. The Titans behind Matt Cassel added a field goal in the second quarter on a drive of -3 yards and despite back-to-back false starts to go from the Miami 1-yard-line to the Miami 11-yard-line, the Titans added a touchdown pass from for the first offensive touchdown of the game more than halfway through the third quarter. Two punts on each side followed before the Dolphins got the ball back just before the end of the third quarter. Jay Cutler and Jay Ajayi delivered a touchdown drive for a 16-10 edge with about 10 minutes remaining, but the extra-point was missed to leave the door open for the Titans. Tennessee had three possessions the rest of the game and managed a total of just 36 yards, never even getting across their own 40-yard-line.

Indianapolis Colts (-1) 26, San Francisco 49ers 23 (44): The Colts had a 16-6 edge heading into the fourth quarter as the favorite and ‘under’ wagers appeared to be in good shape. San Francisco managed an early fourth quarter field goal to trim the margin to seven points, but Jacoby Brissett led a six-play touchdown drive to answer for a 23-9 edge. It took less than two minutes for a struggling 49ers offense to find the end zone to get back within seven points and the defense forced a punt. On a 14-play drive, the 49ers eventually connected on 4th down in the red zone, scoring a touchdown with just 20 seconds on the clock with the extra-point sending the game to overtime. An improbable ‘over’ also connected with the late score regardless of the overtime scoring. Looking for a touchdown on the first possession of the extra session, Brissett was intercepted on a 1st down play in the end zone, his second overtime interception of the season. Only needing a field goal, the 49ers were called for a critical holding penalty just past midfield and eventually had to punt. 49ers' backers were looking for a tie, but the Colts got a big run by Marlon Mack to reach field goal range and Adam Vinatieri delivered a game and spread winning kick from 51 yards.

Philadelphia Eagles (-6) 34, Arizona Cardinals 7 (44½): The spread result in the NFC tilt offered little drama as the Eagles had a 21-0 lead in the first quarter and led 31-7 in the third quarter. One more touchdown would push the game ‘over’ with about 21 minutes to go, but the Cardinals failed going for it on 4th down in Eagles territory at about the 11 minute mark. Philadelphia then burned more than nine minutes of clock to reach the two-minute-warning, putting in a 28-yard field goal that kept the game just ‘under.’ Arizona looked like they delivered a meaningless score late to hit the ‘over,’ but a 28-yard J.J. Nelson catch and run into the end zone initially ruled a touchdown was reversed on replay review, with the ruling a fumble before crossing the end zone with the ball going out of bounds for a touchback.

Seattle Seahawks (+2½) 16, Los Angeles Rams 10 (46½): This division battle was scoreless after the first quarter, but offense picked up with 20 points in the second quarter for a 10-10 tie at halftime. The Rams botched two scoring chances in the third quarter with a missed field goal and an interception in Seattle territory as the Seahawks took a 13-10 lead into the fourth quarter, closing as a slight underdog, but with the game at just +1 or even much of the week. The Rams had another interception and a fumble near midfield in the fourth quarter and Seattle added another field goal to effectively seal the cover on the closing line with just over a minute remaining. Jared Goff connected for two big plays to give the Rams a shot, getting 2nd-and-10 from the Seattle 20-yard-line with 35 seconds to go. Three incomplete passes ended the threat.

Green Bay Packers (+2½) 35, Dallas Cowboys 31 (52):
The Cowboys led 21-6 early, but just 21-15 through three quarters with the Packers bizarrely missing on two Mason Crosby extra-points. Green Bay took the lead on the first play of the fourth quarter to complete an 88-yard touchdown drive, leading 22-21 as a very slight underdog. The Cowboys answered with a quick field goal to lead by two and forced a 3-and-out. With about 10 minutes remaining in the game, Dak Prescott was intercepted with Damarious Randall delivering a 21-yard return to put the Packers in front 28-24, failing going for the two-point-conversion. Dallas delivered a 79-yard drive that took nearly nine minutes of clock and included consecutive overturned replay reviews on a critical 1st down pick up. With just over a minute remaining, Prescott scrambled into the end zone to put Dallas up by three. Rodgers and Aaron Jones were able to get the Packers into field goal range and with 11 seconds left the Packers got the win on a Davante Adams catch as the Packers escaped with another win in Dallas.

Minnesota Vikings (-3½) 20, Chicago Bears 17 (41): The line on this game came out late in the week at -2½ but quickly reached -3½ with news that Sam Bradford would return for the Vikings. Bradford didn’t last long, but Case Keenum played well in relief and after a 3-2 edge at halftime with a clear ‘under’ trajectory the Vikings had two third quarter touchdowns surrounding a Chicago touchdown on a fake punt pass from Pat O’Donnell as the ‘over’ was back in play with the Vikings up 17-9. Mitch Trubisky delivered the Bears to his first touchdown pass early in the fourth quarter on a deflected pass caught by Zach Miller and with a nifty two-point-conversion play the rookie quarterback tied the game himself. The Vikings reached Chicago territory just ahead of the two-minute-warning, but had to punt and on 1st down, Trubisky had a big rookie mistake with an interception setting the Vikings up at the Chicago 28-yard-line. With some kicking woes this season, the Vikings made a bit of an effort to find the end zone, but eventually were close enough to burn the rest of the clock and allowed Kai Forbath to connect from 26 yards for the win. The field goal confirmed the ‘under,’ but left most on the Bears still collecting at +3½.
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Old 10-11-2017, 02:19 PM
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Wednesday’s six-pack

— Tom Brady has a sprained left shoulder, is expected to play against the Jets Sunday.

— Game 4 of Cubs-Nationals got rained out; they’ll try again Wednesday at 4:00.

— Texas Southern’s basketball team has 13 pre-conference games, all true road games.

— Mets bought a AAA farm team in Syracuse, so Las Vegas 51’s will have a new parent club next season.

— Bucs signed Patrick Murray as their new kicker; Fordham grad can also punt and once played Gaelic football in high school.

— Las Vegas 5, Arizona 2– NHL’s expansion Golden Knights are 3-0.

*******************

Wednesday’s List of 13: Mid-week musings…….

13) San Francisco 49ers are 27th NFL team since 1997 to play overtime games on consecutive weekends; Niners lost both games, are now 0-5, with last four losses all by 2 or 3 points.

12) Of the previous 26 teams who played consecutive OT games, five had a bye the following week, so that takes us down to 21 teams- those 21 teams went 11-10 SU in the third week, but 13-7-1 against the spread.

11) A breakdown according to how the teams did in the OT games:
WW?— Teams that won both OT games went 2-2 vs spread in that third game.
WL?— Teams were 1-3 vs spread in the third game.
LL?— Teams were 4-2-1 vs spread; this is where the 49ers trend this week.
LW?— Teams were 5-0 vs spread in the third game.

10) For the record, Baltimore has played OT games on consecutive weekends four times in the last 21 years; no one else has done it more than twice.

9) Ironic that with lot of college basketball coaches in hot water over fraud allegations with the shoe companies, the 16-team PK80 tournament taking place in Oregon next month to honor Phil Knight’s 80th birthday will be a big deal.

16 teams, all Nike-affiliated, will play three games in this event; might make it easier for the FBI to serve their subpoenas, with so many teams in the same city all at once.

8) Thru 4.5 games this season, Chicago Bears didn’t have a pass play longer than 30 yards, the only NFL team without one. Finally Chicago scored on a 38-yard TD pass in the third quarter Monday night; problem is, it was a pass thrown by punter Pat O’Donnell on a fake punt. Oy.

7) Mitchell Trubisky is the 30th starting QB for the Bears in the last 25 years.

6) San Diego State is bowl-eligible already, which means coach Rocky Long gets a $50,000 bonus, and the athletic director, for some reason, gets a $12,500 bonus.

5) New Orleans Saints traded RB Adrian Peterson to the Cardinals Tuesday for a conditional draft pick. Why would a RB without great receiving skills have signed with a Payton/Brees team in the first place? Arizona’s skill players have lot of miles on them; we’ll see if this helps them.

4) Greg Bird hit a home run in a 1-0 playoff game the other day; the first player to ever hit a home run in a 1-0 postseason game was Casey Stengel in 1923, he of course went on to be a famous manager in New York City, but he was also a good player, hitting .284 in 14 MLB seasons.

3) Political trivia: when Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was in college, he was a drummer in the University of Texas marching band.

2) I’m glad the NFL lightened up and allows (most) celebrations after TDs now. They don’t hurt anyone and I think most people like them. Maybe most importantly. the media likes them and over time, that will help the public’s perception of the league, which could use some help.

1) RIP to the great QB YA Tittle, who played 17 years in the NFL with Colts-49ers-Giants; his W-L record was 78-50-5, but he never won a playoff game (0-4). Keep in mind it was a lot harder to make the playoffs back then. Mr Tittle passed away over the weekend at age 90.

Tittle was also one of the opposing coaches against Al Pacino’s Miami Sharks in the excellent football movie Any Given Sunday. RIP, sir.
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Old 10-11-2017, 02:21 PM
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Trump: 'About time' NFL makes demands
October 11, 2017


WASHINGTON (AP) President Donald Trump says ''it is about time'' that NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell demands ''that all players STAND for our great National Anthem-RESPECT OUR COUNTRY.''

Trump made a reference Wednesday on Twitter to Goodell's meetings next week with NFL owners, where they will consider changes to a game manual that says players ''should'' stand during the national anthem. That's a guideline that the league has left to the discretion of players who have kneeled in larger numbers after Trump's criticism.

Goodell told club executives Tuesday in a memo obtained by The Associated Press that the anthem issue is dividing the league from its fans. He said the NFL needs to move past the controversy.

NFL spokesman Brian McCarthy said Wednesday that Goodell met a day earlier with Miami Dolphins players, law enforcement and community leaders. He said players from around the league would be in New York for the previously scheduled owners' meetings next Tuesday and Wednesday.

''The NFL is doing the hard work of trying to move from protest to progress, working to bring people together,'' McCarthy said in a statement.

Trump told supporters last month that owners should fire players who kneel during the anthem, reigniting the movement started by ex-San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick over his view of police mistreatment of black males.
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Old 10-11-2017, 02:24 PM
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Eagles-Panthers: Another enticing prime-time matchup
October 11, 2017


Just think: We get another enticing Thursday night matchup.

A week after the Patriots beat the Buccaneers in a tight prime-timer, division leaders Philadelphia and Carolina go at it in Charlotte.

These two are tied with the Packers for the best record in the NFC at 4-1. The Panthers have been particularly impressive with road wins at New England and Detroit, and the Eagles might be arriving a year ahead of schedule as they sit atop the NFC East.

Philadelphia ranks first in third-down efficiency (53.4 percent), with Carolina second (50 percent). The Eagles have scored at least 20 points in nine consecutive games, the longest active streak in the NFL. (Hint on our pick, maybe: We think they will get to 20 again.)

Cam Newton might be struggling off the field with unwise comments, but behind center he has completed 77 percent of his passes for 671 yards, six touchdowns and one interception in the past two games, those wins at the Patriots and Lions. He also has both Carolina TDs rushing.

''We went through a rough patch early on with the quarterback because he was still working himself back into football shape,'' coach Ron Rivera said.

''He had to get that arm strength back. The shoulder was getting tired quickly because it hadn't been conditioned the way it needs to when you practice as little as he did at training camp. So now he's starting to feel better and better and stronger and stronger.''

Carolina is ranked fifth in the AP Pro32 and is a 3+-point favorite over No. 3 Philadelphia. The winner must be considered a dangerous playoff contender.

PANTHERS, 26-23

KNOCKOUT LEAGUE TIP


OK, the Steelers did us in, specifically Big Ben playing as he was colorblind and throwing all those picks. So if anyone still has faith in our choices here, go with BALTIMORE only because we've already picked New England and Denver.

No. 7 New England (minus 9 1-2) at No. 22 New York Jets

We expect reality to settle in at the Meadowlands. If the NFL has any reality this year.

BEST BET: PATRIOTS, 45-17


No. 19 Tampa Bay (minus 2 1-2) at No. 26 Arizona

Still not ready to trust Bucs on road.

UPSET SPECIAL: CARDINALS, 21-20

No. 30 New York Giants (plus 12) at No. 6 Denver

Also were tempted to make this BEST BET with Giants so banged-up and inept.

BRONCOS, 22-6


No. 10 Pittsburgh (plus 4) at No. 1 Kansas City

Afraid we didn't learn our lesson with Steelers' flop vs. Jaguars.

STEELERS, 24-23

No. 2 Green Bay (minus 3 1-2) at No. 14 Minnesota

Packers look better away from Lambeau than at it.

PACKERS, 29-13

No. 32 Cleveland (plus 10) at No. 18 Houston

Injuries probably will cost Texans shot at division title. Won't cost them much here.

TEXANS, 23-10

No. 11 Los Angeles Rams (plus 3) at No. 13 Jacksonville

Two teams that have surprised so far.

JAGUARS, 21-16

No. 9 Detroit (plus 4 1-2) at No. 21 New Orleans

Rested Saints get enigmatic Lions. Spread seems high, shootout likely.

SAINTS, 34-31

No. 25 Miami (plus 11 1-2) at No. 4 Atlanta

Another rested NFC South team ready to pounce.

FALCONS, 27-13

No. 31 San Francisco (plus 9 1-2) at No. 15 Washington

Niners playing everyone tough, even if they can't get Ws.

REDSKINS, 26-20


No. 29 Chicago (plus 7) at No. 17 Baltimore

Young man Trubisky, meet veteran sackmaster Terrell Suggs. OUCH!

RAVENS, 20-3


No. 28 Los Angeles Chargers (plus 3) at No. 20 Oakland

Derek Carr's return key to Raiders' chances Sunday and beyond.

RAIDERS, 22-20

No. 27 Indianapolis (OFF) at No. 24 Tennessee, Monday night

No Luck? No Mariota? No way we're watching.

TITANS, 20-13

---

2017 RECORD:

Last week: Against spread (10-3). Straight up (8-6)

Season Totals: Against spread (37-36-1). Straight up: (46-31)

Best Bet: 3-2 against spread, 3-2 straight up.

Upset special: 5-0 against spread, 5-0 straight up
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Old 10-11-2017, 02:28 PM
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Eagles-Panthers Capsule
October 11, 2017


PHILADELPHIA (4-1) at CAROLINA (4-1)

Thursday, 8:25 p.m. EDT, CBS/NFL Network/Amazon Prime Video


OPENING LINE - Panthers by 3

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Philadelphia 3-2, Carolina 3-2

SERIES RECORD - Eagles lead 6-4

LAST MEETING - Panthers beat Eagles 27-17, Oct. 25, 2015

LAST WEEK - Eagles beat Cardinals 34-7; Panthers beat Lions 27-24

AP PRO32 RANKING - Eagles No. 3, Panthers No. 5

EAGLES OFFENSE - OVERALL (3), RUSH (5), PASS (10)

EAGLES DEFENSE - OVERALL (22), RUSH (2), PASS (29)

PANTHERS OFFENSE - OVERALL (18), RUSH (19), PASS (17)

PANTHERS DEFENSE - OVERALL (3), RUSH (7), PASS (5)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Eagles, Panthers and Packers tied for best record in NFC at 4-1. Falcons are 3-1. ...

Eagles first in NFL in third-down efficiency (53.4 percent); Panthers second (50 percent). ...

Eagles 4-1 for first time since 2014. ...

Last time Eagles played at least three of first five games on road and started 4-1 or better was 1954 (4-1). ...

Eagles have scored on opening possession in four of five games. ...

Eagles have scored at least 20 points in nine consecutive games, longest active streak in NFL. ...

QB Carson Wentz has six TDs on third down. Wentz is only QB to have multiple games with a perfect passer rating on third down this season. ...

Wentz has completed 14 of 23 (60.9 percent) red-zone passes for 106 yards, seven TDs, no picks. ...

Zach Ertz leads all NFL TEs in receptions (32), yards receiving (387) and receiving first downs (20). ...

K Jake Elliott has made eight straight field goals, averaging 44.5 yards. ...

Average age of Panthers roster is 27. Team has 12 players at least 30 years old. ...

Panthers QB Cam Newton has completed 77 percent of passes for 671 yards, six TDs and one INT in last two games, both road wins. ...

Newton has both Carolina TDs rushing in 2017. ...

Rookie RB Christian McCaffrey leads Panthers with 27 receptions. ...

WR Devin Funchess has three TD catches in last two games. ...

TE Ed Dickson had career-high 175 yards receiving last week vs. Lions. ...

Panthers had six sacks last week against Lions' Matthew Stafford. ...

Panthers DE Julius Peppers needs one sack to become fifth player in NFL history to reach 150. ...

Panthers have been outscored 41-13 in fourth quarter...

Fantasy Tip: Panthers WR Kelvin Benjamin could have big game with teams focusing more now on Funchess, McCaffrey and Dickson.
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Old 10-11-2017, 02:37 PM
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Tech Trends - Week 6
October 11, 2017


THURSDAY, OCT. 12

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PHILADELPHIA at CAROLINA (CBS, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Panthers 2-7 vs. line last nine at home. Also “under” 7-3 at Charlotte since LY. Eagles however “over” 6-2-1 last nine since late LY and have covered 3 of last 4 away.
Tech Edge: Eagles, based on team trends.

SUNDAY, OCT. 15
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups


CLEVELAND at HOUSTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Browns on 5-15 spread skid since late 2015, 3-7 last ten vs. line away. Brownies 7-3 “over last ten away. Texans 9-3-1 as NRG chalk since 2015.
Tech Edge: Texans, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ENGLAND at N.Y. JETS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Belichick has lost last four vs. line at Jets, and Pats just 1-6-1 vs. line last eight in series. Pats 6-14 vs. line as road chalk since 2013. Jets 12-5 as home dog since 2013 (2-0 TY!).
Tech Edge: Jets, based on series and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
MIAMI at ATLANTA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Gase 5-2 vs. line last seven as visitor. Dolphins “under” first four TY after “over” 12-4 LY. Falcs “over” 18-5 since LY, but just 5-14 as reg.-season home chalk since 2014.
Tech Edge: Dolphins, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DETROIT at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Lions have won SU vs. Saints each of past three years. Caldwell 2-0 SU and vs. line away (both as dog) away TY. Brees 5-13-1 as home chalk since 2014, also “over” 17-8 at Superdome since 2014.
Tech Edge: Lions and “over,” based on series, team, and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
GREEN BAY at MINNESOTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

After Monday vs. Bears, Zimmer 6-10 vs. spread since early LY, and 3-3 vs. line against Pack since 2014. Vikes also “over” 4-1 last five at home. Pack “over” 10-2 last 12 away.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CHICAGO at BALTIMORE (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Bears 0-2 vs. line away (home team covered first five Chicago games TY), now 2-8 vs. points on road since LY. Ravens “under” 8-3 last 11 as host.
Tech Edge: Slight to Ravens and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SAN FRANCISCO at WASHINGTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

SF 5-2 vs. line last seven since late LY. Jay Gruden just 4-8 as home chalk since 2014.
Tech Edge: Niners, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
L.A. RAMS at JACKSONVILLE (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)

Rams “over” 6-1 last seven since late LY, Jags “over” 7-2 last nine at home.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
TAMPA BAY at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)

Rams won SU 4 of last 6 vs. Hawks, and covered last five as series host. Rams also “over” last six since late 2016. Into Indy, Hawks on 5-game spread skid since late LY, the longest spread slump of the Carroll era. Also if chalk note 1-6 mark last seven in role.
Tech Edge: Rams and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PITTSBURGH at KANSAS CITY (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Steelers only 6-6-2 as reg.-season dog since 2013. Chiefs have covered last seven and 10 of last 11 in reg. season. Steel “under” 5-0 TY.
Tech Edge: Chiefs and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
L.A. CHARGERS at OAKLAND (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Road team has covered last five in series, Chargers 4-2 vs. spread last six at Coliseum. Bolts 24-11-1 as road dog since 2012. Raiders “over” 9-1 last ten at home.
Tech Edge: Chargers and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
N.Y. GIANTS at DENVER (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)

Eli has covered last two on road TY but G-Men just 5-5-2 vs. spread away since LY. Broncos 22-13-2 vs. line as home chalk since 2012.
Tech Edge: Slight to broncos, based on team trends.


MONDAY, OCT. 16

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups


INDIANAPOLIS at TENNESSEE (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)

Colts have won 11 in a row SU in series. Colts “over” 9-1 last ten away from Lucas Oil. Titans “over” 8-3-1 last 12 as host.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Colts, based on “totals” and series trends.
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Old 10-12-2017, 11:31 AM
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TNF - Eagles at Panthers
October 12, 2017


Philadelphia at Carolina (-3.5, 45.5), 8:25 pm ET, CBS

One of these teams is going to wake up on Friday morning filled with that Tony Montana "the world is yours" feeling, becoming the first NFC team with five wins. For the second straight week, we've got an attractive matchup, which will hopefully result in another decent game as the level of play picks up.

The controversy he created for himself didn't end up hampering Cam Newton, who put together his best game of the season in a 27-24 upset win in Detroit. He's now thrown for over 300 yards and three touchdowns in each of Carolina's road wins this month, beating the Patriots and Lions. His completion percentage has improved each time out and he's been resilient in not letting a three-interception game against the Saints linger. He's going to be playing in Charlotte for the first time since that 34-13 loss and will also be out there for the first time since apologizing for chauvinistic comments towards one of the team's beat writers, so it will be interesting to see if he'll receive any backlash.

Newton's throwing shoulder feels the healthiest it has been since returning from offseason shoulder surgery. After a dreadful debut in ugly, defense-fueled wins over the 49ers and Bills, Newton appeared headed in the wrong direction against New Orleans, getting his team beat. His success in New England came out of nowhere and was another indidictment of the Pats' lack of defense. He closed out the Lions with a huge third-down conversion to Kelvin Benjamin to keep Matthew Stafford from getting the ball back as Detroit attempted to rally from a 27-10 fourth-quarters deficit. Head coach Ron Rivera told NFL Network that the success is related to him finally finding a groove.

"His shoulder is finally feeling like it doesn't get tired fast," Rivera said. "Part of it was he just had surgery. There was nothing minor about what he went through. Missed training camp, not getting a chance to develop some of the timing that you need. So now he's just kind of feeling good about himself."

Philadelphia's pass defense, like New England's (last) and Detroit's (27th), ranks among the NFL's worst, coming in 29th in yards allowed through the air (283). Only the Patriots and Saints surrender more yards per completion than the 8.6 the Eagles allow, so Newton should be able to sustain his rhythm if his arm responds well despite the short week. That's going to be the big if, because the Eagles come in even with the Packers as the NFC's second-highest scoring team (27.4) behind the Rams and figure to test a Carolina defense that has struggled since those dominant first two wins against two of the least prolific offensive teams in football, San Francisco and Buffalo.

The Panthers have been outscored 38-10 in the fourth quarter over their last three games, while the Eagles haven't surrendered a first-quarter touchdown yet, giving up just three points in the opening 15 minutes all season, so if either of those trends continue, Philadelphia has a chance to pull off an upset.

Carson Wentz has soundly beaten any notion of a sophomore jinx, leading all NFL quarterbacks with a 137.8 rating on third down, throwing six touchdowns while racking up 30 first downs. He threw three TD passes in the first quarter in Sunday's 34-7 win over Arizona, a first in franchise history. He also became the 10th QB in league history to throw for over 5,000 yards in his first 21 games and enjoyed the first four-touchdown game of his career, all to different receivers. The Eagles didn't throw much in the fourth quarter due to their healthy cushion or his numbers would've been gaudier. It will be interesting to see how he responds on the road coming off the most prolific passing day of his young career.

The Panthers rank fifth in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (194) despite facing Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford in consecutive weeks. While that number pops out, they have come up with only one interception this season and have seen 69.8 percent of passes completed against them, the fourth-highest clip allowed. Wentz should have opportunities to continue his strong play on what is expected to be a clear conditions in Charlotte.

Another major factor in Philadelphia's success since suffering its only loss in Kansas City is the incorporation of LeGarrette Blount in the run game. Despite being healthy, Doug Pederson only got Blount a single carry against the Chiefs, and that was nullified by a penalty. He caught one pass for 0 yards and was on the field for only six snaps. With Darren Sproles lost for the season, Blount has received 42 carries over the last three contests, racking up 277 yards on 6.6 yards per carry. Although he's only found the end zone once after scoring 18 rushing touchdowns for New England last season, he'll have a chance to add to that total if he stays healthy given how well the offense is performing. Philadelphia joins Kansas City as the only teams in the league to have scored 20 or more points in every game this season.

The Bucs rank last in the NFL in third-down defense, allowing a 50 percent conversion rate that has to have Brady salivating. He's got the offense averaging 32 points over the last three games since the team's Thursday night loss to Kansas City to open the season, and has to be looking forward to going up against a team that has registered only a single sack through the first four games. This will be Brady's first time playing in Tampa Bay in his pro career, as two of the previous meetings came in Foxboro and the '09 game was played in London.

Philadelphia Eagles
Season win total: 8.5 (Over -120, Under +100)
Odds to win NFC East:4/5 to 4/9
Odds to win NFC: 10/1 to 8/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 20/1 to 16/1

Carolina Panthers
Season win total: 9 (Over -120, Under +100)
Odds to win NFC South: 7/2 to 2/1
Odds to win NFC: 15/1 to 7/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 30/1 to 14/1

LINE MOVEMENT


Both of these teams have seen the odds on them achieving success this season improve dramatically this month. Although the Falcons (4/5) are still favored to win the NFC South. the Eagles have replaced the Cowboys as the current NFC East favorite.

Only Green Bay (9/4), Atlanta (4/1) and Seattle (5/1) have better odds than these teams to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

As far as this matchup is concerned, the Eagles were installed as a 3-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced, opening the week there but quickly moving to 3.5. The total opened at 45, climbed to 46 and is most widely available at 45.5.

Carolina is -170/-180 on the money line, while Philadelphia will get you +160.

ODDSMAKER'S TAKE

Scott Cooley of Bookmaker.eu dropped knowledge on what his shop is seeing as of Wednesday afternoon.

"We currently have 62 percent of the tickets on Philly, but of the sharp money we’ve taken, which isn’t an overwhelming amount, has been on Carolina," Cooley said. This feels like a good number, and it will probably dip back down to the opener of -3 at some point before kickoff. Should be a great game for all to see where these two teams really belong in the ratings."

INJURY CONCERNS

Lane Johnson, Philly's standout right tackle, suffered a head injury against Arizona and is sidelined with a concussion. He didn't make the trip and will be replaced by Halapoulivaati Vaitai, a second-year player who started six games as a rookie and fared very well upon taking over last week, playing 34 snaps without allowing so much as a hurry. Philadelphia went 2-4 in his starts last season. Carolina had six sacks last week in Detroit.

The Eagles might get standout DT Fletcher Cox, one of the NFL's top defensive players, back from a two-game absence due to a calf injury, but the intention is to decide on his status an hour before game-time. RB Wendell Smallwood (knee) and defensive linemen Beau Allen (foot), Destiny Vaeao (wrist) and Chris Long (foot) are all listed as questionable. Top corner Ronald Darby (ankle) remains sidelined, but might return next week.

The Panthers also have issues up front along the offensive line and in the Eagles. Five-time All-Pro center Ryan Kalil will miss another game with a neck injury, while younger brother Matt left the Lions win for a stretch but will play. RB Jonathan Stewart (ankle) and WR Devin Funchess (knee) will also be out there for Carolina. Tight end Greg Olsen remains sidelined after foot surgery and isn't likely to return to game action until late November. Safeties Kurt Coleman and Demetrious Cox are out, but banged up corners James Bradberry and Daryl Worley should play.

RECENT MEETINGS (Philadelphia 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS last eight; OVER 5-3)


10/25/15 Carolina 27-16 vs. Philadelphia (CAR -3, 45)
11/10/14 Philadelphia 45-21 vs. Carolina (PHI -7, 48.5)
11/26/12 Carolina 30-22 at Philadelphia (CAR -3, 42)
9/13/09 Philadelphia 38-10 vs. Philadelphia (PHI -2.5, 43.5)
12/4/06 Philadelphia 27-24 vs. Carolina (CAR -3, 37.5)
10/17/04 Philadelphia 30-8 vs. Carolina (PHI -10, 42)
1/18/04 Carolina 14-3 at Philadelphia (PHI -4, 36.5)
11/30/03 Philadelphia 25-16 at Carolina (CAR -1.5, 37)

PROPS


Of the props available below at BetOnline.ag, I'd ride the OVER on field goals and do think we'll see a touchdown of 43 yards or more.

Team to reach 10 points first: (Panthers -145, Eagles +125)
Team to reach 20 points first: (Panthers -160, Eagles +140)
Team to score first: (Panthers -130, Eagles +110)
Team to score last: (Panthers -110, Eagles -110)
First score: (Touchdown -160, FG/Safety +140)
Total FGs made by both teams: (3.5, Over +120, Under -140)
Longest FG made: (46, Over -120/Under +100)
Total sacks by both teams combined: (5 Over -135, Under +115)
Will there be a score in final 2 minutes of 1st half: (Yes -260, No +220)
Will there be a defensive or special teams TD?: (Yes +220, No -260)
Will there be a TD of 43 yards or more?: (Yes -125, No +105)
Will there be a 1-yard TD?: (Yes -125, No +105)
Will there be overtime: (Yes +1000, No -1500)
Will there be 3 straight scores by either team: (Yes -200, No +170)


PANTHERS AS A HOME FAVORITE

The Panthers are 1-1 at home this season but haven't covered, pushing against Buffalo in a game they almost lost in the final seconds and getting rolled by the Saints. They were 4-3 (3-3-1 ATS) as the home chalk last season.

Carolina played two Thursday night games, two Monday night games and a Saturday contest last season and went 2-3 but have played solely on Sunday afternoons thus far in '17.

EAGLES AS A ROAD UNDERDOG


Philadelphia has won just two of its last 10 road games, but snapped a run of seven straight losses in the season opener against Washington, prevailing as a 1-point favorite. The Eagles have been a dog in Kansas City and L.A., losing to the Chiefs and beating the Chargers. They went 1-5 as a road 'dog last year, but are 6-2 against the number in their last eight.

Wentz won his only Thursday night game last season, beating the Giants at home in Week 16 a few days after Philadelphia was officially eliminated. That win started a run that has seen the Eagles win six of their last seven straight up.

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 7 currently has the Panthers as a 4.5-point road favorite against Chicago. The Eagles will be back on a national stage, hosting Washington for Monday night football to wrap up their season series early as they seek a sweep. Philadelphia is listed as a 6.5-point favorite.

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Thursday's Best Bet
October 11, 2017


NFL Week 6 TNF Best Bet (CBS, 8:25 p.m. ET)

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Carolina Panthers


A pair of 4-1 SU teams meet on TNF this week as the surging Philadelphia Eagles take their three-game winning streak on the road to Carolina.

Both teams have looked rather impressive in recent weeks – specifically the resurgence of Cam Newton and the Panthers offense, but this is that dreaded short-week game and with both sides believing they've got a solid shot of going all the way this year after their respective starts, that extra time off after the game is that much sweeter off a win.

HeritageSports.eu Odds: Carolina (-3); Total set at 45.5

Philadelphia enters this week off a dominating 34-7 win over Arizona a week ago to make it three in a row in the standings (2-1 ATS). The Eagles jumped all over the Cardinals early in that game and never really looked back.

Aside from getting the W, Philly fans have to be pleased with how their defense played as it was the first real game outside of forcing numerous turnovers in Week 1 that the Eagles defense locked things down. There was no real let up late in the game despite the big lead, and if Philadelphia wants to win the NFC East and make a deep playoff run, they'll need that defense to keep up with what the offense is doing.

Philly has scored at least 20 points in all five games so far and four of the five saw 26+ scored.

Cam Newton and the Panthers offense have put up 27+ in their last two games – both wins – after everyone was talking about how Newton wasn't anywhere near the same guy that won the MVP after some below average play to begin the year.

But Carolina has seemingly found something on offense these days (albeit against the likes of New England and Detroit's defenses), and Newton himself looks a lot healthier then he did at the beginning of the year. Seeing how he and the rest of the Panthers offense comes out against this Eagles team that's filled with confidence right now will definitely be interesting.

So, given those respective offense vs defense matchups and the fact that both teams have relatively lit up the scoreboard recently, at first glance this total of 45.5 seems a little low. Simply combining their average points per game this year gives you a number of 48.4 (27.4 for Philly, 21 for Carolina), and the majority of bettors – 80%+ according to VegasInsider.com's betting percentage numbers – have already taken a stance on the 'over.'

The side money is basically split down the middle, but with the total being so heavily weighed to one side, I believe that's where we find our edge this week.

There is no denying that both offenses have been playing well, but the Eagles commitment to defense for the entire 60 minutes last week didn't go unnoticed over here. Philly might have been 3-1 SU prior to that, but they were scraping by with 3 point wins over the likes of the Giants and Chargers because their defense was playing a soft prevent defense late in games.

In those two wins over LA and New York, the Eagles were outscored 38-21 in the 4th quarters and that's not going to get it done against the better teams in this league. So last week, with the game very much in hand by halftime, Philly's defense made a conscious decision to not play soft the rest of the way and they ended up shutting out the Cardinals in the final two quarters.

It's that type of play that will enable them to pile up the victories a little easier when everything goes according to plan, and I expect the same kind of defensive intensity this week. They've poured over two weeks of solid film by Carolina's offense having success, so even with it being a short week I expect them to be ready.

Carolina had a similar problem last week when they entered the 4th up 27-10, played soft, and nearly coughed up the game. After shutting out Detroit in the 3rd frame, the Lions put up two TD's on the Panthers in the final 15 minutes to make it a game. That is not the type of defense a Ron Rivera coached team prides itself on, especially since the Panthers defense was lights out the first two weeks of the year.

This will be the fourth straight week against a team that prefers to attack through the air, and while the points allowed numbers aren't the prettiest – 34, 30, 24, - the Panthers have improved in that regard each week. Being at home where they are 1-4-1 O/U in their last six games should help Carolina's defense even more this week, as they'll also look to control the ball with their running game and keep Carson Wentz and that Eagles attack on the sideline for as long as possible.

With everyone jumping on their initial reaction of this total being too low for these two teams that have scored plenty of late, we've got to remember that this number is that low for a reason.

TNF games aren't always the shootouts many expect them to be when two scoring units square off against one another – look at last week's New England/Tampa game – and with the Eagles on a 2-5 O/U run after winning by 14+, 3-8-1 O/U after allowing 15 or less, and Carolina 3-8 O/U after gaining 350+ yards, going against the grain and taking the low side of this total is the better betting option.

Odds per - HeritageSports.eu

Best Bet: Under 45.5

Last edited by CNOTES53; 10-12-2017 at 11:38 AM.
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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 6

Thursday, October 12

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PHILADELPHIA (4 - 1) at CAROLINA (4 - 1) - 10/12/2017, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 80-56 ATS (+18.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL

Week 6

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Thursday, October 12

9:25 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. CAROLINA
Philadelphia is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Carolina is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games


*****************************

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 6

Thursday's game
Eagles (4-1) @ Panthers (4-1)—Philly won its last three games, scoring 20+ points in all five games this year; Iggles are 2-1 on road, with only loss 27-20 at unbeaten Chiefs- they’re 34-73 on 3rd down this year (46.6%). Philly allowed only 138 rushing yards on 44 tries (3.1/carry) in its last three games- they’re 2-5 in its last seven games as a road underdog. Carolina scored 33-27 points in winning as a road underdog their last two games; Panthers are 34-68 on 3rd down this uear, also very good. Eagles won four of last six series games; they split four visits to Charlotte. NFC East teams are 6-7 vs spread outside the division, 3-2 as road underdogs; NFC South teams are 6-8 vs spread, 2-3 as home favorites. Road team covered all five Carolina games this season.

**************************

NFL
Dunkel

Week 6

Thursday, October 12

Philadelphia @ Carolina


Game 103-104
October 12, 2017 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
137.997
Carolina
137.034
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 1
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+3 1/2); Over


********************
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NFL

Thursday, October 12


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Eagles at Panthers
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 45.5)

Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles were the darlings of the NFL during the first month of the 2016 season. That fast start was following by a lengthy tailspin, which is why the Eagles are not getting too far ahead of themselves as they prepare to visit the Carolina Panthers on Thursday night in a matchup of division leaders.

“What we don’t know about ourselves is how we handle success. Which, I think, is more dangerous,” cornerback Malcolm Jenkins said after Philadelphia's 34-7 destruction of Arizona on Sunday. “It’s easy to start listening to the fans and the media about how good you are, but at the end of the day, it’s a race to improve every week.” The Eagles are sitting atop the NFC East with a 4-1 record, their lone loss coming at Kansas City -- the league's only unbeaten team. Like Philadelphia, the Panthers are 4-1 and alone in first place in the NFC South after squeezing out a pair of impressive three-point road wins at New England and Detroit. Cam Newton has bounced back from some early-season struggles with some superb play, but it has been overshadowed by his sexist remarks to a female reporter during a media session.

TV:
8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

POWER RANKINGS:
Eagles (+1.5) - Panthers (+1.5) + home field (-3) = Panthers -3

LINE HISTORY:
The Panthers opened as three-point home favorites and that pointspread has been bet up slightly to -3.5. The total hit betting boards at 45 and edged higher to 45.5.

INJURY REPORT:


Eagles - DT F. Cox (Probable, Calf), S J. Watkins (Questionable, Hamstring), DT D. Vaeao (Questionable, Wrist), DE C. Long (Questionable, Foot), DT B. Allen (Questionable, Foot), RB W. Smallwood (Doubtful, Knee), T L. Johnson (Out, Head), CB R. Darby (Out, Ankle), CB S. Jones (Out, Achilles), RB D. Sproles (I-R, Knee), RB D. Pumphrey (I-R, Hamstring), K C. Sturgis (Out, Quadricep), CB R. Goforth (I-R, Knee), WR D. Williams (I-R, Achilles).

Panthers - CB J. Bradberry (Probable, Calf), DE M. Addison (Probable, Knee), DE J. Peppers (Probable, Shoulder), QB C. Newton (Probable, Shoulder), T M. Kalil (Probable, Ankle), RB J. Stewart (Probable, Ankle), WR D. Funchess (Probable, Knee), S D. Cox (Out, Ankle), C R. Kalil (Out, Neck), S K. Coleman (Out, Knee), TE G. Olsen (Out, Foot), DE D. Hall (Out, Knee), WR D. Byrd (Out, Forearm), CB C. Luke (Out, Ankle), CB C. Elder (I-R, Knee), T D. France (I-R, Concussion), CB T. Williams (I-R, Arm), DT D. Iddings (I-R, Shoulder), WR C. Johnson (I-R, Back).

ABOUT THE EAGLES (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 O/U):
All but four of last week's 14 games were decided by six points or fewer, but Philadelphia was one of the exceptions as Wentz posted a perfect passer rating in the first quarter with three of his four touchdown passes. Tight end Zach Ertz continues to be Wentz's favorite target with 32 receptions and two touchdowns, but Torrey Smith and Nelson Agholor each hauled in long scoring strikes against a vaunted Arizona secondary. Running back LeGarrette Blount is providing balance to the offense, averaging 6.6 yards per carry over the past three games. The Eagles rank 29th against the pass but defensive tackle Fletcher Cox practiced fully Tuesday after missing the last two games.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 O/U):
Newton got off to a slow start while working his way back from offseason surgery on his throwing shoulder, but he has been spectacular in the past two games with a combined passer rating of 137.2 while throwing for 671 yards and six TDs. Tight end Greg Olsen was injured in Week 2 but Ed Dickson gave the position a boost with five receptions for 175 yards last week. Rookie running back Christian McCaffrey has 27 catches while wideout Devin Funchess is forming some chemistry Newton with 14 receptions and three scores over the past two games. Carolina's defense is surrendering 274 yards per game, ranking No. 1 in the NFC, while allowing 194.2 yards through the air.

TRENDS:


* Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
* Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
* Over is 13-3 in Eagles last 16 road games.
* Over is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 games in October.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

CONSENSUS:
The public is siding with the road underdog Eagles at a rate of 55 percent and the Over is picking up 76 percent of the totals action.
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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 6
Monty Andrews

The Jets can't hope to exchange offensive firepower with New England even with the Patriots struggling on the defensive end - but they certainly boast a more formidable secondary.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+9.5, 47.5)

Patriots' putrid pass defense vs. Jets' shutdown secondary

If you had told the majority of NFL bettors that the Patriots and Jets would have identical records through five games, you would probably get some strange looks. But that's exactly what has happened as the AFC East rivals do battle this Sunday afternoon at MetLife Stadium. Even more surprisingly, the team's point differentials aren't that far off - thanks in part to New England's strangely weak pass defense, and in part to the Jets effectively limiting opposing pass attacks.

Nothing has come easily for the Patriots, who have seen each of their last three game decided by five points or fewer. They escaped Tampa with a 19-14 triumph over the Buccaneers, but still surrendered 319 passing yards in doing so and have allowed 1,615 yards through the air on the season, by far the most in the NFL. Opposing quarterbacks have recorded an average passer rating of 109.2 in five games against the Patriots; only the Cleveland Browns (112.4) have yielded a higher aggregate rating.

The Jets can't hope to exchange offensive firepower with New England even with the Patriots struggling on the defensive end - but they certainly boast a more formidable secondary. The Jets rank in the middle of the pack league-wide in passing yards against per game (212), but are allowing the eighth-lowest passer rating (81.9). That number drops all the way to 56.2 at home, tied for the lowest passer rating in the league among visiting quarterbacks. If this trend continues, the Jets should keep this one close.

Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders (OFF)

Chargers' punishing pass pressure vs. Raiders' leaky O-line

Things have gone sideways in Oakland, with the Raiders - pegged by some as the potential Super Bowl representative from the AFC - having lost three consecutive games and dealing with an injury to their star quarterback. Even if Derek Carr returns this week - and head coach Jack Del Rio believes he will - he'll need to get better protection than the quarterback position has received in recent weeks. That could be a big ask this week, as the Chargers bring their league-best pass pressure to town.

Armed with two of the best young pass rushers in the game in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, the Chargers have punished opposing quarterbacks all season long. Los Angeles enters the game with the best sack rate in the NFL, taking down the QB on 10.18 percent of opponent dropbacks through five games. The Chargers have been even more prolific on the road, registering a 12.33-percent sack rate in two games away from Los Angeles. They rank third overall in total sacks with 17; Bosa and Ingram have 12 of them.

The Raiders haven't been able to keep the quarterback safe during their three-game losing skid. Oakland has given up a sack on 9.8 percent of dropbacks over that stretch; only five other teams have been worse at protecting the QB in that span. That dropped the team's sack allowed rate to 7.32 percent on the season, 20th-best in the league. And if the Raiders can't contain one of the top pass rushes in the league this weekend, they might struggle to end their losing ways.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5, 46)

Steelers' second-half woes vs. Chiefs' late scoring barrage

It's officially panic time in Steel Town, with the Steelers looking for answers after last week's 30-17 beatdown at the hands of the visiting Baltimore Ravens. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is hinting at retirement after throwing five interceptions in the stunning loss, and things won't get any easier for him in hostile territory this Sunday. The Chiefs have been the class of the league so far, due in large part to an offense that has been much better than anyone expected it to be - particularly in the second half.

The Steelers came into the season with high hopes on the offensive end - and having Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown on the roster doesn't hurt. But Pittsburgh is averaging fewer than 20 points per game with Roethlisberger looking like a quarterback on the downside of his career. The Steelers enter the weekend averaging a paltry 7.8 second-half points per game - sitting in the bottom quarter of the league in that category. It's a far cry from the 12 second-half points the Steelers averaged a season ago.

Perhaps Roethlisberger and the Steelers could learn a thing or two from Alex Smith and the surprising Chiefs, who have scored a league-best 164 points through five games. Kansas City was a below-average second-half scoring unit in 2016 but has exceeded expectations so far this season, leading the league with 19.4 second-half points per game. With Pittsburgh reeling and the Chiefs rolling, Big Ben will need to be a lot better than he was last week if the Steelers have any hope of keeping things close.

New York Giants at Denver Broncos (-11.5, 39.5)

Giants' third-down woes vs. Broncos' drive-killing prowess

You can find several reasons to fade the Giants this weekend at Sports Authority Field at Mile High - and it all starts with the state of the New York receiving corps. The Giants lost both Odell Beckham and Dwayne Harris for the season in last week's loss to the Chargers, while Brandon Marshall will miss multiple games and Sterling Shepard is also banged-up. The Giants were already having trouble converting on third down, and this won't make it any easier - especially against that vaunted Broncos defense.

New York's offense has struggled for most of the season, particularly at extending drives. The Giants have converted just 36.4 percent of third-down opportunities to date, tied with Cincinnati for 24th in the NFL. It's an extension of a trend that plagued New York last season, when it placed 31st out of 32 teams in third-down conversion rate. And what's even more baffling: quarterback Eli Manning has been decent on third down this season, completing 70 percent of passes with two TDs and zero interceptions.

He's going to need to be that accurate - or more so - this weekend as he faces a Broncos defense that has been positively brutal on opposing offenses facing third down. Denver has allowed foes to complete just 25.9 percent of third-down opportunities; only two other teams (Minnesota, Miami) have an opponent success rate below 30 percent. With most of his pass catchers on the sidelines and a fearsome Denver defense awaiting him, Manning will be in tough to improve his team's third-down numbers.
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Sunday, October 15

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CLEVELAND (0 - 5) at HOUSTON (2 - 3) - 10/15/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (3 - 2) at NY JETS (3 - 2) - 10/15/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 109-79 ATS (+22.1 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 2-1 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (2 - 2) at ATLANTA (3 - 1) - 10/15/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DETROIT (3 - 2) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 2) - 10/15/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 65-90 ATS (-34.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
DETROIT is 131-171 ATS (-57.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 2-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 2-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GREEN BAY (4 - 1) at MINNESOTA (3 - 2) - 10/15/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 2-2 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 2-2 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (1 - 4) at BALTIMORE (3 - 2) - 10/15/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 5) at WASHINGTON (2 - 2) - 10/15/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 31-52 ATS (-26.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 59-92 ATS (-42.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 84-113 ATS (-40.3 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 84-113 ATS (-40.3 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 84-113 ATS (-40.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 22-45 ATS (-27.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA RAMS (3 - 2) at JACKSONVILLE (3 - 2) - 10/15/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS is 177-227 ATS (-72.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 177-227 ATS (-72.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 80-116 ATS (-47.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS is 65-95 ATS (-39.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (2 - 2) at ARIZONA (2 - 3) - 10/15/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (3 - 2) at KANSAS CITY (5 - 0) - 10/15/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 58-36 ATS (+18.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 65-43 ATS (+17.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-1 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 2-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA CHARGERS (1 - 4) at OAKLAND (2 - 3) - 10/15/2017, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 2-2 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 4-0 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY GIANTS (0 - 5) at DENVER (3 - 1) - 10/15/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
DENVER is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
DENVER is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
DENVER is 25-43 ATS (-22.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, October 16

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 3) at TENNESSEE (2 - 3) - 10/16/2017, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Sunday, October 15

2:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. WASHINGTON
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
San Francisco is 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Washington's last 12 games at home
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco

2:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. MINNESOTA
Green Bay is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Minnesota is 3-11-1 SU in its last 15 games ,when playing Green Bay

2:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. NY JETS
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New England is 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Jets last 7 games
NY Jets are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games

2:00 PM
MIAMI vs. ATLANTA
Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Atlanta's last 13 games at home

2:00 PM
DETROIT vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of New Orleans's last 14 games at home

2:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. HOUSTON
Cleveland is 2-12-1 ATS in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games

2:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Chicago is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games at home
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago

5:05 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. JACKSONVILLE
Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 7 games
Jacksonville is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 9 games

5:05 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. ARIZONA
Tampa Bay is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Arizona
Arizona17-7-1 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games

5:25 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. KANSAS CITY
Pittsburgh is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Kansas City's last 14 games at home
Kansas City is 6-12-1 ATS in its last 19 games when playing Pittsburgh

5:25 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Los Angeles's last 10 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Oakland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Los Angeles
Oakland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

9:30 PM
NY GIANTS vs. DENVER
NY Giants are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 6 games when playing Denver
Denver is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Giants
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games


Monday, October 16

9:30 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Indianapolis's last 24 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Tennessee's last 24 games when playing Indianapolis
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Old 10-12-2017, 11:49 AM
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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 6


Sunday's games
Dolphins (2-2) @ Falcons (3-1)— Miami’s OL coach was fired Monday for off-field issues, which can’t help an offense that scored 3 offensive TD’s on 42 drives in their 2-2 start. Last 3 games, Miami averaged 4.1/4.0/2.8 ypa, which is hideous. Dolphins are 7-11 in last 18 games as a road underdog. Atlanta is 7-1 in its last eight post-bye games, covering five of last six; they’ve run ball for 147 ypg in last three games. Falcons are 4-11 as home favorites under Quinn. Fish are 8-4 in series, but lost 38-16/19-7 in their only two visits here in last 20 years- their last win in Atlanta was in 1980. AFC East road teams are 7-2 vs spread outside their division; NFC South teams are 6-8 vs spread, 2-3 as home favorites. All four Miami games this year have stayed under total.

Packers (4-1) @ Vikings (3-2)—
Keenum played QB in 2nd half of Monday nite’s win in Chicago; Vikings haven’t allowed a first half TD in last three games (outscored foes 31-8)- they held last two opponents under 300 yards, last three opponents to 17 or less points. Minnesota is 12-3 in its last 15 games as a home underdog, 5-2 under Zimmer. Pack scored 35-35 points in last two games; Rodgers won game LW 35-31 in Dallas with last-minute drive- Green Bay is 9-7 vs spread in last 16 games as a road favorite, 5-2 in last 7 games on artificial turf. Last four GB games went over total. Green Bay is 11-3-1 in last 15 series games; they won 3 of last 4 visits to Twin Cities, but lost 17-14 in first visit to the Vikings’ new dome LY.

Lions (3-2) @ Saints (2-2)
— Detroit won last three series games, by 1-8-15 points; they beat Saints here the last two years, 35-27/28-13. Lions are 2-0 on road, beating Giants/Vikings, but they lost last two home games; Detroit is just 11-39 on 3rd down last three weeks- they’ve run 65 times for 218 yards (72.7 ypg) in last three games. New Orleans is 6-1-1 vs spread in its last eight post-bye games. Saints are playing only 2nd home game- they allowed total of 13 points winning last two games after an 0-2 start. NO is 5-13-1 in its last 19 games as a home favorite. NFC North teams are 8-6 vs spread outside their division, 2-1 as road dogs. NFC South teams are 6-8 vs spread, 2-3 as home favorites.

Patriots (3-2) @ Jets (3-2)
— Teams are in 3-way tie with Buffalo atop AFC East. Patriots are 10-2 in last 12 series games, with both losses in OT- teams split last four meetings played here. Pats won last meeting 41-3 LY. Extra prep time for NE after Thursday night win; they’re 2-0 on foreign soil, winning 36-20 in Superdome, 19-14 in Tampa LW, first game this year Patriots held an opponent under 7.6 ypa. Jets won three in row after an 0-2 start, they’re 12-5 vs spread in last 17 games as a home underdog. Gang Green held opponents to 13 points on their last six red zone drives, but that was vs sub-par NFL QB’s (Bortles-Kizer-Hogan). NE is 8-1 in last nine games as a road favorite- they have 25 plays of 20+ yards, #2 in NFL behind Rams’ 29.

49ers (0-5) @ Redskins (2-2
)— Kyle Shanahan worked for Redskins with his dad from 2010-13; his 49ers lost in OT the last two weeks. Since 1997, favorites that lost the previous two weeks in OT are 4-2-1 vs spread in that 3rd game. Niners may be 0-5, but their last four losses were by 3-2-3-3 points- they’re 2-1 as road dogs. This is also their 3rd week in row on road, a historic soft spot for road teams. 49ers won last four series games, taking last two played here. Redskins’ last series win was in ’05. Redskins are 2-7 in last nine post-bye games; favorites covered 9 of their last 10 post-bye games. Washington is favored for first time this year; since 2013, they’re 5-10 vs spread as a home favorite.

Bears (2-3) @ Ravens (3-2)
— Trubisky was 13-26/159 passing in his NFL debut Monday night, throwing key INT in last 3:00 that cost Bears the game, but he was OK. This is his first road start- he started only 13 college games at North Carolina. Chicago is 12-36 on 3rd their last three games; they’re 0-2 on road, losing 29-7 (+7) in Tampa, 35-14 (+7) in Green Bay- they’re 12-17-1 vs spread in last 30 games as a road underdog. Ravens scored 20+ in their three wins, with a +8 TO ratio- they scored 7-9 in losses, with -5 TO ratio. Baltimore is 5-3 vs spread in its last eight games as a home favorite. Bears are 3-2 in last five series games; home side won four of last five meetings. Ravens lost 23-20 in OT in last visit here, in 2013.

Browns (0-5) @ Texans (2-3)
— Cleveland switched to Stanford alum Hogan at QB in 2nd half vs Jets LW- he led them on two TD drives in a 17-14 loss. Browns lost 24-10 (+7.5) at Baltimore, 31-28 (-1) at Indy in their two road games; they’re 6-11 vs spread in last 17 games as a road dog. Houston scored 33-57-34 points in last three games behind rookie QB Watson, but lost 2 of the 3; they allowed 29+ points in their three losses, 9-14 in their wins. Under O’Brien, Houston is 12-5-1 as a home favorite. Texans won five of last six series games, last of which was in 2014; Browns lost last three visits here, by 3-8-18 points. JJ Watt/Mercilus both need surgery for their injuries, big blow to the Houston defense. Since ’09, Texans are 5-3 as a double digit favorite.

Buccaneers (2-2) @ Cardinals (2-3)
— Arizona is 2-3 with wins by 3 points each over Colts/49ers; their losses are by 12-11-27 points- they scored two TD’s on 23 drives in their last two games, scored 14.5 ppg in last four games. Dirk Koetter returns to Phoenix (was ASU’s coach from 2001-06); his Bucs got crushed 40-7 in Week 2 here LY, Bucs’ 3rd loss in last four visits to desert- teams split last eight series games. Cardinals are 4-3 as home underdogs under Arians, 16-10 since ’07. Tampa Bay (-2.5) lost 34-17 at Minnesota, in its only road game, first time in four years they were road favorite. Bucs are 5-4 SU on road under Koetter. NFC West teams are 3-9 vs spread outside their division. NFC South teams are 6-8 vs spread, 4-5 when favored.

Rams (3-2) @ Jaguars (3-2)
— Two teams having surprising success under new leadership. Jags ran ball for 155+ yards in 4 of their 5 games; their wins are by 22-37-21 points. Jags are +11 in turnovers in those three games, -1 in their two losses, giving up 37-23 points- their defense scored 3 TD’s in their last two games, same as their offense. LA scored 41-35 points in winning its two road games, throwing ball for 10.4/6.8 ypa. Rams lost 13-10 to division rival Seattle LW; they’re -5 in turnovers in two losses, +4 in three wins. Home team won all four series games; Rams lost 23-20 in OT in only visit here, in 2009. NFC West teams are 3-9 vs spread outside their division, 1-6 on road. AFC South teams are 6-5 vs spread outside their division.

Steelers (3-2) @ Chiefs (5-0)—
KC is best team in NFL right now, scoring 17 TD’s, trying 12 FG’s on 52 drives; none of their wins have been by less than 7 points. Under Andy Reid, Chiefs are 15-17 vs spread as home favorites, 2-0 this year. Pittsburgh is a road underdog for first time in three years; Steelers lost 2 of last 3 games, throwing five INTs in 30-9 home loss to Jaguars LW. Steelers won five of last six series games; they beat KC 18-16 here in LY’s playoffs, after crushing Chiefs 43-14 in Heinz Field during season. All five Steeler games stayed under the total; over is 3-0-2 in Chief games. Roethlisberger had one of his worst games LW, throwing five INTs with no TD’s- two of his INTs were run back for TD’s. He figures to bounce back here.

Chargers (1-4) @ Raiders (2-3)—
Oakland lost its last three games, scoring 10-10-17 points; their QB has a broken back, his backup lost his last six NFL starts and the defense has zero turnovers in their last two games. Raiders are 5-6 vs spread as home favorites under Del Rio. Chargers got their first win LW; four of their five games were decided by 5 or less points. Bolts are 2-0 as road underdogs this year; since ’08, they’re 30-17-2 as road dogs- four of their five games this year went over total. Oakland won last four series games, last three all by 3 points; Chargers lost 23-20ot/34-31 in last two visits here. NFL-wide, home favorites are 5-8-1 vs spread in division games. Raiders’ team total stayed under in four of their five games.

Giants (0-5) @ Broncos (3-1)
— New York is in freefall, starting 0-5 and now Beckham is done for the year. Maybe getting away from home will help. Giants’ last three losses are by 3-2-5 points- they ran for 152 yards LW, a positive step after averaging 59.3 ypg in first four games. Big Blue is 3-3-1 as road underdogs under McAdoo. Denver is 3-0 at home, winning by 3-25-6 points; since 2014, they’re 9-11-1 as a home favorite. Over is 3-1 in their four games. Four of five Giant games went over total. Denver won/covered six of last seven post-bye games. Giants lost four of five visits to Denver, losing last three by 14-11-20 points- their lone win in Mile High City was in ’89. This is first time since Manning retired that Denver is a double digit favorite.

Monday's game
Colts (2-3) @ Titans (2-3)— Status of Mariota (hamstring) makes handicapping this game dicey. Titans scored 14-10 points in losing their last two games, both on road; they split their two home games. Tennessee is 5-3 vs spread in its last eight games as a home favorite; over is 10-6-2 in their last 18 home games. Indy is 16-1 in its last 17 games with the Titans, winning last 11 in a row; they won last five visits to Nashville, by 6-3-17-2-8 points. Indy is 0-2 on road this season, losing big both times, 46-9 (+3.5) at Rams, 46-18 (+13) at Seattle- their three home games were all decided by 3 points each. Last three Colt games all went over. Colts are 30-65 on 3rd down in Brissett’s four starts, which is good, but winning on road is doubtful until Luck returns to lineup.
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Sunday, October 15

Cleveland @ Houston

Game 251-252
October 15, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
127.473
Houston
135.559
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 8
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 10
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+10); Over

New England @ NY Jets


Game 253-254
October 15, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
141.091
NY Jets
125.309
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 16
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 9 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-9 1/2); Over

Miami @ Atlanta


Game 255-256
October 15, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
124.045
Atlanta
140.892
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 16
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 11
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-11); Over

Detroit @ New Orleans


Game 257-258
October 15, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
134.393
New Orleans
141.296
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 7
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 4 1/2
50
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-4 1/2); Over

Green Bay @ Minnesota


Game 259-260
October 15, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
141.279
Minnesota
129.978
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 11 1/2
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 3
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-3); Under

Chicago @ Baltimore


Game 261-262
October 15, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
126.771
Baltimore
131.268
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 4 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 7
39 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+7); Over

San Francisco @ Washington


Game 263-264
October 15, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
126.525
Washington
132.174
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 5 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 10
47
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+10); Under

LA Rams @ Jacksonville


Game 265-266
October 15, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
126.743
Jacksonville
141.651
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 15
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 2 1/2
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(-2 1/2); Over

Tampa Bay @ Arizona


Game 267-268
October 15, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
131.553
Arizona
126.769
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 5
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1
45
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-1); Under

Pittsburgh @ Kansas City


Game 269-270
October 15, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
137.669
Kansas City
139.956
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 2 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 5
46
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(+5); Under

LA Chargers @ Oakland


Game 271-272
October 15, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
129.935
Oakland
126.937
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Chargers
by 3
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
LA Chargers
N/A

NY Giants @ Denver


Game 273-274
October 15, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
128.000
Denver
135.984
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 8
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 12 1/2
40
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(+12 1/2); Under



Monday, October 16

Indianapolis @ Tennessee

Game 275-276
October 16, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
124.154
Tennessee
124.926
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 1
60
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
N/A
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NFL Record For Sept......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )

Totals...................41 - 30 - 1...........57.74%...........+ 40.00

Best Bets:

Best Bets Total.............7 - 6......+2.00............7 - 7.........- 3.50................- 1.50


Dog Of The Month........1 - 0

Total Of the Day...........1 - 0


*******************************

NFL Record For Oct......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )

10/09/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/08/2017 8-10-0 44.44% -15.00
10/05/2017 1-0-1 100.00% +5.00
10/02/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/01/2017 9-12-0 42.86% -21.00

Totals............21 - 23 - 1....47.72%....-21.50


Best Bets:...................ATS...................Unit s........... ..O/U.............Units...............Total

10/09/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00............1 - 0...........+10.00.........+10.00

10/08/2017.................3 - 3.................-1.50.............2 - 4...........-12.00...............-13.50

10/05/2017.................0 - 0 - 1.............0.00.............1 - 0...........+5.00................+ 5.00

10/02/2017.................1 - 0................+5.00.............0 - 1............-5.50.................- 0.50

10/01/2017.................4 - 4.................-2.00.............2 - 2............- 1.00.................- 3.00

Totals.........................9 - 7 - 1............+ 6.50...........6 - 7............-8.50................-2.00

Sunday Night 2 Team Parlay...........................0 - 2.................................-10.00


Thursday Night 2 Team Parlay.........................

Thursday Night Game of the month.................



*****************************

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 12

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

PHI at CAR 08:25 PM

PHI +3.0 *****.......NFL Thursday Night Game of the Month


O 45.5 *****.......Thursday night 2 team parlay
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Wentz, Eagles hold off Panthers' late charge in win

In a bout between two carbon-copy championship contenders, the Philadelphia Eagles (5-1) narrowly prevailed, besting the Carolina Panthers (4-2), 28-23, at Bank of America Stadium in Week 6. Here's what we learned from the close victory:

1. Carolina had its chances. After pulling within five and forcing an Eagles punt with over five minutes to go, the Panthers embarked on a potential game-winning drive. But with Cam Newton noticeably bothered by something following his acrobatic touchdown attempt on the previous drive, the quarterback missed on multiple deep pass attempts, nearly getting picked off by Rasul Douglas on a deep overthrow and then tossing an interception to Jalen Mills on a deep overthrow of Kelvin Benjamin. After some poor clock management by Philadelphia, Carolina had another opportunity, but neglected to run the ball on third-and-short near midfield. Cam's third-down pass was deflected at the line and on fourth, the QB short-armed Christian McCaffrey across the middle. For a Panthers offense turned one-dimensional, Newton, who threw three interceptions on the night, couldn't deliver at the bell.

2. Carson Wentz had another solid outing in a season full of them. The Eagles quarterback spread the ball around, completing a pass to eight different receivers, and continued his dalliances with tight end Zach Ertz (two more TDs) and wideout Nelson Agholor (55 yards, TD). Wentz has already mastered the ability to look off safeties and move quickly through reads, all the while proving agile in a pocket that collapsed often without right tackle Lane Johnson. Wentz took nine QB hits and three sacks, and was noticeably bothered when hurried, overthrowing his wideouts all too often. A late miss to a wide-open Ertz that would have salted away the win infuriated the second-year pro. But Wentz and his balanced Philly offense did enough against a top-tier defense to secure the victory and assume dominance atop the conference.

"Having a full offseason under my belt, the game has really slowed down. There's still mistakes out there, there's still plenty of plays you want back. But I'm seeing things a lot quicker," Wentz said on the TNF Postgame set on NFL Network. "I'm feeling way more comfortable with the offense, with the checks and everything else that goes with it. And then also just as a team. We're all playing faster, we're playing together and ultimately, like I said, we're finding ways to win ballgames."

3. Questionable coming into this game, Fletcher Cox was unquestionably the most dominant defender on the field on Thursday night. Cox tallied two QB hits and half a sacks and provided a crucial bull-rush of guard Trai Turner deep in Panthers territory and late in the second quarter that forced a Cam Newton interception and led to a tide-turning Eagles touchdown. The centerpiece of a Philly front seven that mauled a Carolina O-line missing starting center Ryan Kalil and eliminated the Panthers' rushing attack, holding Carolina's backs to nine (!) yards on the night, Cox, alongside Brandon Graham and Timmy Jernigan, deserves our respect.

4. In the run game, McCaffrey has been used as a decoy, and not much else. The Panthers rookie runner (eight yards on four carries) enjoyed another quiet night on the ground. Heralded for his elusiveness coming out of Stanford, McCaffrey underwhelmed against Philly, who bottled him up and made him hesitant with his cuts on screens and punt returns. The first-year back was mostly good for opening up holes for Cam Newton on run-pass options -- though why ends and linebackers bite on the ineffective McCaffrey is beyond me. McCaffrey has been phased out of the ground game, averaging just 4.3 runs over the last four weeks, and is instead showing up as a short-yardage receiver (10 for 56 yards, TD).

Unsurprisingly, Cam finished as Carolina's leading rusher with 71 yards. As evidenced by Newton's missed missiles at the end of the game, the quarterback can't afford to take the beating every week like he did on Thursday night. But if the ineffectiveness of McCaffrey and Jonathan Stewart (negative-four yards!) persists, that will be the inevitable outcome.

5. Agholor is having quite a comeback season. One year after being briefly relegating to the bench, Agholor has thrived in the slot, thanks to the acquisitions of Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith. His comeback campaign continued on Thursday night, as Agholor caught four balls for 55 yards and turned on the burners on a fourth-quarter slant-and-score. Aside from Ertz, Agholor has been undoubtedly Philly's most valuable receiver this season.

6. Speaking of valuable Eagles worthy of attention, why isn't Philadelphia riding LeGarrette Blount more? The back came into the game averaging 5.8 yards per carry and broke off multiple 10-plus-yard gains against Carolina, but too often, Doug Pederson put in third-string speedster Kenjon Barner in on first and second downs. Blount is built to create third-and-manageables; Barner is a gadget guy. Philly converted just 36 percent of their third downs on Thursday, a far cry from its league-best 53.4 percent coming in.

7. Keep an eye on the health of Luke Kuechly. The essential Panthers linebacker suffered yet another concussion, his third in as many years, on an awkward block late in the second quarter. He was immediately placed into the concussion protocol and ruled out of the game.
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NFL Record For Sept......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )

Totals...................41 - 30 - 1...........57.74%...........+ 40.00

Best Bets:

Best Bets Total.............7 - 6......+2.00............7 - 7.........- 3.50................- 1.50


Dog Of The Month........1 - 0

Total Of the Day...........1 - 0


*******************************

NFL Record For Oct......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )

10/12/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/09/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/08/2017 8-10-0 44.44% -15.00
10/05/2017 1-0-1 100.00% +5.00
10/02/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/01/2017 9-12-0 42.86% -21.00

Totals............23 - 23 - 1....50.00%....-11.50


Best Bets:...................ATS...................Unit s........... ..O/U.............Units...............Total

10/12/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00............1 - 0 ..........+5.00.......+10.00

10/09/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00............1 - 0...........+5.00.........+10.00

10/08/2017.................3 - 3.................-1.50.............2 - 4...........-12.00...............-13.50

10/05/2017.................0 - 0 - 1.............0.00.............1 - 0...........+5.00................+ 5.00

10/02/2017.................1 - 0................+5.00.............0 - 1............-5.50.................- 0.50

10/01/2017.................4 - 4.................-2.00.............2 - 2............- 1.00.................- 3.00

Totals.........................9 - 7 - 1............+ 6.50...........6 - 7............-8.50................-2.00

Sunday Night 2 Team Parlay...........................0 - 2.................................-10.00

Thursday Night 2 Team Parlay........................1 - 0.................................+12.50

Thursday Night Game of the month................1 - 0.................................+5.00

Last edited by CNOTES53; 10-12-2017 at 11:45 PM.
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Sunday’s six-pack

Six most popular picks for Week 6 in the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Atlanta Falcons, -11.5 (644)

5) Los Angeles Rams, +2.5 (701)

4) Denver Broncos, -11.5 (716)

3) Detroit Lions, +5 (779)

2) Green Bay Packers, -3 (970)

1) Pittsburgh Steelers, +4.5 (993)

Season record of top 6 picks: 13-17

***********************

Sunday’s List of 13: Wrapping up a college football Saturday

13) Rough week for big favorites:
Syracuse (+24) 27, Clemson 24
Boston College (+21) 45, Louisville 42
South Alabama (+18) 19, Troy 8
California (+14) 37, Washington State 3
Tulsa (+13.5) 45, Houston 17
Florida International (+13.5) 23, Tulane 10
UConn (+9.5) 28, Temple 24

12) Friday the 13th hijinx; If you put $10 on a Syracuse/Cal moneyline parlay Friday night, you cashed a ticket for $700.

11) Washington State alum Klay Thompson was on the sidelines at Berkeley for the second half of the Coogs’ loss at Cal Friday night. Wazzu turned the ball over seven times; everything they tried went wrong. Just a very bad night, after they had beaten USC/Oregon their last two games.

Warriors beat Sacramento at home earlier Friday night.

10) South Carolina 15, Tennessee 9— Vols started a freshman QB, Vols didn’t score in second half. Vols play Alabama next; good luck with that. Just for the record, Butch Jones’ buyout is over $8M. You know someone dislikes your performance if they pay you $8M to go away.

9) LSU 27, Auburn 23— Auburn led this game 20-0; LSU ran punt return back for a TD early in 4th quarter, then kicked two FG’s in last 2:36 for the upset win.

8) Air Force 34, UNLV 30— Rebels led this game 30-7 in the 3rd quarter.

7) South Florida 33, Cincinnati 3— Bulls have won their last ten games, the longest current win streak in college football.

6) Rained so hard at the Akron-Western Michigan game that they postponed it until Sunday; the stadium had some damage with the heavy rains, they weren’t 100% sure they could play Sunday.

5) Texas A&M 19, Florida 17— Not often you beat a good team on the road when your QB is 8-24 passing, but Aggies pulled this win out- they’re 5-2, after blowing a 44-10 lead in their opener, a hideous 45-44 loss at UCLA. At one point early in 2nd quarter, A&M had four true freshman playing in their secondary— you don’t see that very often.

4) Ohio State 56, Nebraska 14— In its last two games, Ohio State outgained opponents 390-35 in the 1st quarter. Maybe Mike Riley can go back to Oregon State when Nebraska fires him.

3) Oklahoma 29, Texas 24— Sooners blew a 20-0 lead, but pulled out a win; Longhorns covered the last four games in this rivalry. Two of Oklahoma’s three TD’s in this game came on plays of 50+ yards.

2) USC 28, Utah 27— Utes scored a TD with 0:42 left to make score 28-27 USC, then went for two points and the lead— they failed on the attempt. I’ve said this before in this spot, but I really dislike this play— it is the macho thing to do, but if you’re the underdog, keep the game going as long as possible, plus this— YOU’RE ON NATIONAL TV!!!! National TV exposure is PRICELESS.

1) Army 28, Eastern Michigan 27— Eagles did the same thing as Utah, except with 0:49 left; this is even more of a blunder against a service academy, since chances are you have a better kicker than they do, as far as overtime goes. Army didn’t complete one pass (0-5) in this game, so they weren’t gonna score in the last 0:49 of regulation.
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Sunday’s six-pack

Six most popular picks for Week 6 in the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Atlanta Falcons, -11.5 (644)

5) Los Angeles Rams, +2.5 (701)

4) Denver Broncos, -11.5 (716)

3) Detroit Lions, +5 (779)

2) Green Bay Packers, -3 (970)

1) Pittsburgh Steelers, +4.5 (993)

Season record of top 6 picks: 13-17

***********************

Sunday’s List of 13: Wrapping up a college football Saturday

13) Rough week for big favorites:
Syracuse (+24) 27, Clemson 24
Boston College (+21) 45, Louisville 42
South Alabama (+18) 19, Troy 8
California (+14) 37, Washington State 3
Tulsa (+13.5) 45, Houston 17
Florida International (+13.5) 23, Tulane 10
UConn (+9.5) 28, Temple 24

12) Friday the 13th hijinx; If you put $10 on a Syracuse/Cal moneyline parlay Friday night, you cashed a ticket for $700.

11) Washington State alum Klay Thompson was on the sidelines at Berkeley for the second half of the Coogs’ loss at Cal Friday night. Wazzu turned the ball over seven times; everything they tried went wrong. Just a very bad night, after they had beaten USC/Oregon their last two games.

Warriors beat Sacramento at home earlier Friday night.

10) South Carolina 15, Tennessee 9— Vols started a freshman QB, Vols didn’t score in second half. Vols play Alabama next; good luck with that. Just for the record, Butch Jones’ buyout is over $8M. You know someone dislikes your performance if they pay you $8M to go away.

9) LSU 27, Auburn 23— Auburn led this game 20-0; LSU ran punt return back for a TD early in 4th quarter, then kicked two FG’s in last 2:36 for the upset win.

8) Air Force 34, UNLV 30— Rebels led this game 30-7 in the 3rd quarter.

7) South Florida 33, Cincinnati 3— Bulls have won their last ten games, the longest current win streak in college football.

6) Rained so hard at the Akron-Western Michigan game that they postponed it until Sunday; the stadium had some damage with the heavy rains, they weren’t 100% sure they could play Sunday.

5) Texas A&M 19, Florida 17— Not often you beat a good team on the road when your QB is 8-24 passing, but Aggies pulled this win out- they’re 5-2, after blowing a 44-10 lead in their opener, a hideous 45-44 loss at UCLA. At one point early in 2nd quarter, A&M had four true freshman playing in their secondary— you don’t see that very often.

4) Ohio State 56, Nebraska 14— In its last two games, Ohio State outgained opponents 390-35 in the 1st quarter. Maybe Mike Riley can go back to Oregon State when Nebraska fires him.

3) Oklahoma 29, Texas 24— Sooners blew a 20-0 lead, but pulled out a win; Longhorns covered the last four games in this rivalry. Two of Oklahoma’s three TD’s in this game came on plays of 50+ yards.

2) USC 28, Utah 27— Utes scored a TD with 0:42 left to make score 28-27 USC, then went for two points and the lead— they failed on the attempt. I’ve said this before in this spot, but I really dislike this play— it is the macho thing to do, but if you’re the underdog, keep the game going as long as possible, plus this— YOU’RE ON NATIONAL TV!!!! National TV exposure is PRICELESS.

1) Army 28, Eastern Michigan 27— Eagles did the same thing as Utah, except with 0:49 left; this is even more of a blunder against a service academy, since chances are you have a better kicker than they do, as far as overtime goes. Army didn’t complete one pass (0-5) in this game, so they weren’t gonna score in the last 0:49 of regulation.
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SuperContest Picks - Week 6
October 14, 2017


The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 2,748, which is an all-time record.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5

Week 6

1) Pittsburgh +4.5 (993)
2) Green Bay -3 (970)
3) Detroit +5 (779)
4) Denver -11.5 (716)
5) L.A. Rams +2.5 (701)

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 6 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections

Philadelphia (+3.5) 298 Carolina (-3.5) 206
Cleveland (+9.5) 449 Houston (-9.5) 415
New England (-9) 521 N.Y. Jets (+9) 493
Miami (+11.5) 181 Atlanta (-11.5) 644
Detroit (+5) 779 New Orleans (-5) 579
Green Bay (-3) 970 Minnesota (-3) 409
Chicago (+6.5) 383 Baltimore (-6.5) 523
San Francisco (+10) 516 Washington (-10) 358
L.A. Rams (+2.5) 701 Jacksonville (-2.5) 493
Tampa Bay (-2.5) 444 Arizona (-2.5) 558
Pittsburgh (+4.5) 993 Kansas City (-4.5) 572
L.A. Chargers (+3.5) 613 Oakland (-3.5) 186
N.Y. Giants (+11.5) 244 Denver (-11.5) 716
Indianapolis (+6.5) 263 Tennessee (-6.5) 173


WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage

1 0-5 0-5 0%
2 3-2 3-7 30%
3 2-3 5-10 33%
4 4-1 9-11 45%
5 1-4 10-15 40%
6 - - -
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Gridiron Angles - Week 6
October 14, 2017


NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Cardinals are 10-0 ATS (12.45 ppg) since October 24, 2004 and as a dog coming off a loss as a dog where they allowed at least 400 total yards.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Saints are 0-10-1 ATS (-15.05 ppg) since November 2013 as a favorite off a game as a favorite where they had at least 32 minutes time of possession.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:


-- The Chargers are 0-8-1 ATS (-8.7 ppg) since Sep 18, 2011 coming off a win where Philip Rivers threw at least 40 passes.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:


-- The Redskins are 11-0 OU (6.6 ppg) since December 26, 2015 coming off a game where they allowed at least 24 points.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Ravens are 0-13 OU (-7.65 ppg) since November 13, 2011 off a game as a dog where they had at least 32 minutes time of possession.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Vikings are 0-12 OU off a road win in which they rushed the ball for at least 50 yards more than their season-to-date average.
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Total Talk - Week 6
October 14, 2017


The ‘under’ posted an 8-6 record in Week 4 and most of the low-scoring results were never in doubt. Unlike the previous weekend, there weren’t any terrible ‘bad beats’ but the 49ers-Colts outcome received a late surge from San Francisco to help the ‘over’ plus things broke right for the offensive units at the end of the Packers-Cowboys contest. Through five weeks of the season, our numbers have the ‘under’ sitting at 39-37-1 based on our closing numbers.

Line Moves


Listed below are the largest line moves as of Saturday morning based off the Week 6 openers posted last Sunday at Bookmaker.eu.

Cleveland at Houston: 44 to 47
Miami at Atlanta: 47 ½ to 45 ½
Detroit at New Orleans: 51 to 49 ½
Green Bay at Minnesota: 47 to 44 ½ (Vikings Injuries)
Chicago at Baltimore: 41 ½ to 38 ½
L.A. Rams at Jacksonville: 44 to 42 ½
N.Y. Giants at Denver: 41 to 39 ½


It’s rare to see totals drop on a pair of known ‘over’ teams at home in the Falcons and Saints but that’s the case this week.

"Well, we know that the public isn’t playing the under on any Saints or Falcons games so it’s sharp money bringing those down,” said Scott Cooley of Bookmaker.eu.

“I doubt the Saints’ total will stay under its opener with the Lions a “perceived” scoring team too. The Atlanta movement makes sense considering the Dolphins are anemic offensively.”

One game receiving an upward tick is the Cleveland-Houston matchup and Cooley believes it’s a combination of factors. He explained, “Houston losing two of its three best defensive players as well as the Houston offense. With Watson under center, that thing is humming, and Bill O’Brien is doing a great job calling plays.”

Along with taking a position on the Browns-Texans ‘over’ on Sunday, the guys behind the Bookmaker.eu counter have large liabilities on three ‘under’ wagers - Green Bay at Minnesota, L.A. Rams at Jacksonville, N.Y. Giants at Denver.

Hit the Road

As I’ve written before on VegasInsider.com, the goal of the site is to inform our users with entertaining content and hopefully that will help win your wagers. I enjoy the science behind sports betting and really appreciate when I receive trends, angles and systems from users that help my own personal wagering.

With that being said, here’s an angle that was brought to my attention from an individual back in 2008 and I’ve been posting since I started writing the weekly ‘Total Talk’ pieces.

Play the ‘over’ in any game when the visitor is playing their third consecutive road game

According to long-time VI user and total enthusiast B. Kelly, the system has watched the ‘over’ go 41-20-1 (65%) the last 12 seasons.

It has tempered off a bit but it did go 2-1 last season and I’m including the Giants-Packers ‘over’ in the playoffs when New York was playing its third consecutive road game. I’ve never included the Super Bowl and the above records also leave out the ‘International’ outcomes or this could’ve been in play last week with Jacksonville (London, at Jets, at Steelers).

This week, San Francisco will be playing at Washington and it is the third straight road game for the 49ers after playing at the Cardinals and Colts. The 49ers lost both of those games in overtime by exactly three points and are listed as 10 ½-point underdogs in this spot.

Including this week’s matchup, we have six other games this season that fit the above angle.

Off the Bye

We’ve got four squads playing with rest this week and all of them are listed as home favorites.

New Orleans: If you like to follow trends, you could be leaning to the Saints offense and the high side this Sunday. New Orleans has gone 5-0 both SU and ATS in its last five games off a bye at home and the offense has averaged 41.4 points per game during that span. Also, the ‘over’ is on an 11-4 run for the Saints in the last 15 from the Superdome. Make a note that Detroit stifled New Orleans 28-13 at this venue last season and they also beat them in 2015 (35-27) in the ‘Big Easy’ and from Ford Field in 2014 (24-23) too. Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (leg) is listed as ‘probable’ as of Saturday.

Atlanta:
Since QB Matt Ryan arrived in 2008, the Falcons have gone 7-2 off the bye in the regular season and the offense has averaged 29.4 PPG in those contests. Atlanta has watched the ‘over’ go 11-1 in its last 12 at home. Miami has watched all four of its games go ‘under’ and the offense has only managed to score three touchdowns this season.

Washington:
Since head coach Jay Gruden arrived in the nation’s capital, the Redskins have gone 1-2 off the bye and the ‘under’ is 2-1 in those games.

Denver:
The Broncos dropped a 30-27 decision at home to the Chiefs last season but had won their six previous games off the bye. Last year’s result could be an anomaly with Denver holding teams to 18 PPG in those victories.

The four teams on bye in Week 6 include Buffalo, Cincinnati, Dallas and Seattle.

Divisional Action

The ‘under’ went 2-0 in these matchups last week and the low side is 16-7 (69%) through five weeks.

New England at N.Y. Jets: Even though the Patriots have had trouble scoring (22, 20, 17) in their last three trips to New York, they still have a potent attack when clicking and the Jets are ranked 25th in total defense (354 YPG). New England is ranked last in total defense (447 YPG) but this will be the weakest offense that they’ve faced to date this season. The ‘under’ went 2-0 in last year’s encounters. New York has seen the ‘under’ go 3-2 this season while New England watched its perfect ‘over’ mark (4-1) come to an end last Thursday in Tampa Bay.

Green Bay at Minnesota:
The Packers lit up the Vikings 38-25 at home last season and the ‘over’ (44 ½) connected easily but the previous four outcomes resulted in ‘under’ tickets. Green Bay and Minnesota both enter this game with 4-1 ‘over’ records. The Vikings will be playing on a short week after beating the Bears on MNF and Minnesota has only scored a combined 16 points (9, 7) off its first two wins this season. QB Case Keenum gets the start for Minnesota but not having WR Stefon Diggs won’t help his numbers.

L.A. Chargers at Oakland: This series has seen the totals produce a stalemate (3-3) the last three seasons. No early number was posted due to the status of Raiders QB Derek Carr (back) but a few reports have him starting. The Chargers are ranked last in rushing yards allowed (161.2) and I would expect Oakland to attack that weakness Sunday.

Indianapolis at Tennessee: (See Below)

Under the Lights


The ‘under’ went 2-1 in the primetime games last week and we might be looking at a couple more low-scoring games this weekend. Including this past Thursday’s result between the Eagles and Panthers, the ‘over’ is 10-7 in the night contests this season.

N.Y. Giants at Denver: This total has dropped nearly two points at every betting shop and I really hope you win your early wagers on Sunday so you don’t have to chase on this matchup. The Giants are decimated on both sides of the field and I don’t see how the offense is going to move the ball against a Denver defense that is ranked first in yards allowed (260.8) and seventh in scoring (18.5 PPG). The Broncos should get extra possessions in this matchup but the offense (16 PPG) hasn’t looked sharp in their last two games.

Indianapolis at Tennessee: This is another game where you might want to sit out. Titans QB Marcus Mariota (hamstring) missed last week and his status is up in the air again. The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in the last four meetings between the pair and the Titans scored 33, 24 and 26 with Mariota and 17 without him. Make a note that the Colts (2-3) haven’t won back-to-back games this season and are averaging 13.3 PPG in their losses compared to 28.5 PPG in the wins.

Fearless Predictions

Caught more than a few breaks last week and sometimes that’s what it takes to get on the right track. With that effort ($190) we slightly trimmed the overall deficit ($270) on the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Tampa Bay-Arizona 45 ½

Best Under: Green Bay-Minnesota 44 ½

Best Team Total: New Orleans Over 26 ½
Over 38 ½ New England-N.Y. Jets
Under 55 ½ Pittsburgh-Kansas City
Under 48 N.Y. Giants-Denver

Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)
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NFL Week 6 Essentials
October 14, 2017


No time to waste, let's get right into thought process mode in handicapping Week 6's offerings:

Sunday, Oct. 15

Browns at Texans:
It took four games for Hue Jackson to decide rookie QB DeShone Kizer needed to take a step back and watch someone else work. The expectation here is that he'll eventuallly get the job back from Kevin Hogan to help the Browns determine whether they need to draft another quarterback next April, but for now, the second-year ex-Stanford starter gets the ball. He gets his passes out quicker and moved Cleveland better than Kizer against the Jets, but the franchise's 28th starting QB since 1999 isn't the answer either.

His arm isn't strong and his delivery isn't fluid, but his brain should make him a more than serviceable backup for years to come. The Browns need more than that. The Texans need to prove they can beat teams being led by backup QBs in the wake of season-ending injuries to J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus. Although banged up, Jadeveon Clowney (knee), Benardick McKinney (hip) and Johnathan Joseph (groin) are all set to be a part of a revamped defense that needs to try and succeed going forward without a number of their most gifted assets.

Cleveland will try and slow down rookie QB Deshaun Watson, who has thrown 11 touchdown passes over his last three games while running for an additional one. The Texans have averaged over 41 points per game but are just 1-2 in that span, defeating Tennessee but losing to New England and Kansas City. The winless Browns have only topped 20 points once this season and have only once in their last 24 games. They've lost 15 straight road games, last winning over two years ago (Oct. 11, 2015) in Baltimore.

Patriots at Jets: I don't know whether it's more unlikely that the entire AFC East is at .500 or better entering Week 6 or that these teams are currently tied, but the winner here gets to stay in first place. Shockingly, there's a heavy favorite as to who that will be, but the Jets are almost certain to be an underdog in every remaining game this season, so it's a role they've grown accustomed to even though they come off a win as a road favorite in Cleveland.

New York has won three in a row in a season where its projected win total closed at 3.5 at Westgate, riding a defense that has pitched first-half shutouts in two of the last three weeks and has stifled opponents in the red zone. Of course, the quarterbacks they've faced include luminaries Jay Cutler, Blake Bortles, Kizer and Hogan, so we'll see if they can have similar success against Tom Brady. New England has dominated this for the majority of the past two decades, winning 23 of the last 30 meetings.

Bill Belichick is 11-2 against New York since his team's 2010 playoff loss, a run that opened with a 45-3 win and featured a 41-3 rout in the most recent meeting last Christmas Eve. That was only one of two covers New England has recorded over its last 10 games against the Jets. The Pats have prevailed in 10 straight road games (9-1 ATS), only failing to cover in last season's 22-17 Nov. 27 win over these Jets. Tom Brady (shoulder) and Rob Gronkowski (thigh) will play.

Dolphins at Falcons:
Adam Gase's team has won five of their last seven games outside south Florida, but find themselves in a major offensive rut, having scored a single offensive touchdown in three of their four games and getting shutout by the Saints in the outlier. Jay Ajayi has played through a nagging knee injury, while Jay Cutler's passing yardage has decreased every week thus far. That's likely to change this week since the bar is set so low (92 yards), unless he struggles so much that some Dolphins fans get their wish and Matt Moore gets a shot. It won't help that WR DeVante Parker is unlikely to play due to an ankle injury. Offensive line issues have certainly played a key role in the regression, so it will be interesting to see how the team responds following the controversy that cost line coach Chris Foerster his job.

Atlanta, meanwhile, comes off a drama-free bye week that allowed the offense to catch get back in the lab after being held to a season-low 17 points in a loss to Buffalo, their second-lowest point total since 2015. Steve Sarkisian's offense failed to score in the first and third quarter against Buffalo and turned it over three times. There were two other fumbles that they recovered, so it was a sloppy performance that continued a theme since Matt Ryan threw three picks in a 30-26 win at Detroit. The reigning NFL MVP will have Julio Jones back in the mix as his main target after he left in the first half of the Buffalo loss due to a hip flexor injury. No. 2 WR Mohamed Sanu still needs a few more weeks to heal his injured hamstring, which could give other weapons like Andre Roberts, Justin Hardy and TE Austin Hooper more targets. The Dolphins list CB Byron Marshall as questionable, while Atlanta will have speedy playmaker Vic Beasley back to help make up for pass rusher Courtney Upshaw's absence.

Lions at Saints: Detroit has won each of the last three seasons, averaging 29 points per game while outrushing New Orleans and applying more defensive pressure. The last two wins have come in New Orleans, which is where nine of the last 12 matchups have taken place. The Saints have only won once in Detroit in the last 25 years, rolling 42-7 behind Drew Brees back in 2008 against a team that ultimately went winless. Matthew Stafford was drafted No. 1 the next year, lost his first two matchups against Brees in '11, including dropping an NFC wild card game, but has since dominated the series. He popped up on the injury report with an ailing quad and hurt ankle, but is expected to play.

The Saints avoided committing a turnover in any of their first four games, the first time Brees has managed that in his career, so they'll be looking to secure a winning record this deep into a season for the first time since opening 5-0 in 2013. Tackles Terron Armstead and Andrus Peat each have a chance to play following the layoff, which would definitely help the cause against a Lions defensive front loaded with athletes. The best of the pass-rushers, Ziggy Ansah, is listed as questionable with a lingering knee issue he's been able to play through. Only LB Paul Worrilow has been ruled out for Detroit.

Packers at Vikings: Case Keenum gets another turn under center, coming in 2-2 in games where he's had to step in for Sam Bradford. The latest pinch-hitting appearance was his first coming in off the bench, as he helped pull out Monday night's 20-17 win in Chicago after Bradford couldn't continue. He's 1-2 in starts and will have to make due with out top wideout Stefon Diggs, who won't play due to a groin injury that really limited the Vikings' passing attack against the Bears. Safety Andrew Sendejo is also a key question mark for Minnesota, while guard Nick Easton won't play.

The Packers are going to be thin in the back with safety Morgan Burnett sidelined, won't have LB Joe Thomas and list LB Ahmad Brooks and CB Kevin King as doubtful. Davon House should play, but if he suffers a setback, depth in the secondary will be scarce. Aaron Rodgers rescued a win in Dallas and is hoping to have top tackles Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari back to provide even more protection. RB Aaron Jones has emerged in Ty Montogmery's absence, but the receiver turned back is hopeful to return from suffering broken ribs. Jordy Nelson's back was also a concern in practice this week, so how much he can do remains to be seen. Green Bay is 11-3-1 SU against Minnesota over the last 14 meetings and haven't lost by more than a single possession in any of those games.

Bears at Ravens: The other team facing a short week situation also has to overcome a rookie quarterback making his first road start. Mitch Trubisky threw his first career touchdown pass on a ball that probably should've been intercepted and threw two picks he wasn't as fortunate on, the last of which ended up setting Minnesota's game-winning field goal. His athleticism still made him an improvement over Mike Glennon since he created offense with his ability to buy time and move the pocket, but he's not going to have the impact Watson has had with Houston.

Baltimore has a veteran defense that has already posted one shutout (at Cincinnati) and picked off rookie DeShone Kizer three times in his road debut, so defensive coordinator Dean Pees is sure to challenge Trubisky. He'll probably have to do so without DT Brandon Williams and OLB Tim Williams, both of whom are doubtful. Corner Jimmy Smith is going to play, but DT Carl Davis is questionable. According to ESPN Stats & Info, the Ravens are 14-1 at home vs. rookie QBs in their 22-year history, losing to Jake Plummer back in 1997. They're 9-0 under John Harbaugh, who will have to stay perfect despite missing a pair offensive starters in RB Terrance West and lineman Matt Skura. Buck Allen and Alex Collins will continue to get carries.

49ers at Redskins: Kyle Shanahan encounters former pupil Kirk Cousins for the second time in a regular-season game, winning as offensive coordinator in OT when Cousins threw a walk-off pick-six in OT against the Falcons in 2015. He's now looking for his first win as a head coach, having lost four games by a combined 11 points. The last two losses have come in OT, and the schedule has done him no favors as this is the team's fourth road game in five weeks and third in succession. The team released veteran LB NaVorro Bowman, which frees up the middle for rookie Reuben Foster, who seeks to return from an ankle injury. Safety Eric Reid could also return from a knee injury that's forced him to miss the last few games.

Although Washington comes off an early bye week that it badly needed, the extra time off wasn't enough to ensure the healthy return of numerous key figures. Left tackle Trent Williams, still limping around due to a knee injury, is questionable. Top corner Josh Norman will sit due to his rib injury, DB Deshazor Everett is doubtful and LB Zach Brown is questionable. Considering the next five weeks feature road games at Philadelphia, Seattle and New Orleans in addition to home dates against the Cowboys and Vikings, handling business against one of the NFL's three winless squads at home is a must.

Rams at Jaguars: One of the NFL's top young defenses awaits the arrival of a new-look attack that has made the league take notice over the first five gaems. The winner of this L.A./Jacksonville matchup will unexpectedly move to 4-2, atop their division, even if likely not in sole possession of first place. Considering the Jags never won a fourth game last season and L.A. stopped at five, losing 11 of 12, it's a big deal to take a significant step forward into contention. Only the Chiefs (32.8) are averaging more points per game than the Rams (30.4), while Jacksonville (16.6) surrenders fewer points than anyone but Buffalo (14.8), so this should be determined by the team that best imposes its will.

Both teams are relatively helathy, particularly in their areas of strength. The Rams are a bit banged up in their back seven with LB/S Mark Barron and DB Lamarcus Joyner each questionable and CB Troy Hill considered doubtful to play. Jacksonville has struggled to replace the explosiveness of projected big-play WRs Allen Robinson and Dede Westbrook, who have been out since the opening week, while center Brandon Linder will miss his second straight game due to an undisclosed illness. Tyler Shatley filled in for the upset at Pittsburgh and will make his sixth start here. This will be just the fourth-ever meeting between these franchises. The Rams are 1-3, but the Jaguars won in OT in the lone meeting in Jacksonville back on Oct. 18, 2009.

"The wiseguys hit Jacksonville and Tampa Bay early, and hard. Those were bad numbers," Oddsmaker.eu spokesman Scott Cooley said. "Probably should have opened each at -2 or even -3. Trying to entice some money on the other sides."

Buccaneers at Cardinals:
The game above involves two of the NFL's biggest surprises. This one is all about avoiding becoming one of the most disappointing. Arizona is already under .500, while Tampa Bay arrives 2-2, owning wins over the Giants and Bears, who enter Sunday's game a combined 1-9. The Bucs will be playing just their second road game and are making their only trip of the season to the west coast, so it's fortunate that even with no bye due to Week 1's hurricane-related cancellation, they're coming in off their longest layoff. Tampa Bay fell 19-14 against the Patriots two Thursdays ago and should be healthier. Although LB Kwon Alexander and safety Keith Tandy remain out, fellow starting LB Lavonte David and S T.J. Ward are likley to return. DE Robert Ayers is also back, so Tampa Bay is healthier than its been in a few weeks. It also has a new kicker, replacing Nick Folk with Patrick Murray, back for a second tour with the Bucs after injuries have shelved him the past few seasons.

Jameis Winston threw four interceptions and lost a fumble in last season's 40-7 to the Cardinals, so you know he's had this game circled. He hasn't been intercepted in three of his four starts, but he was picked off in his only road game. Patrick Peterson (quad) should play despite coming in questionable, but DT Corey Peters (knee), DT Robert Nkemdiche (calf) and LB Karlos Dansby (hamstring) are all questionable. Arizona is hoping a 34-7 loss in Philadelphia last Sunday was rock bottom, since they're still hopeful that David Johnson can return by early December and help the Cardinals make a playoff run. Adrian Peterson, acquired for a conditional draft pick earlier in the week, will debut and should get early-down carries with Andre Ellington getting third-down work. With a trip to London scheduled for next week for a divisional game against the Rams, this feels like a must-win for Arizona.

Steelers at Chiefs: Pittsburgh was favored to win the Super Bowl by Westgate entering Week 5, but its awful loss to the Jaguars dropped it to fourth at 7-to-1, coming in behind New England (9/2), Green Bay (5/1) and Kansas City (6/1). This Chiefs team is one it will likely have to get through again come postseason, making this potential preview the top matchup we're getting this weekend. Whether it lives up to expectations will depend on whether Ben Roethlisberger can rebound from a five-interception day against Jacksonville. The future Hall of Fame QB has played considerably better at home than he has on the road over the past few seasons, so Arrowhead isn't the ideal venue for him to bounce back in. He's 2-1 in Kansas City, leading the Steelers to an 18-16 win in the AFC Divisional playoffs in the most recent meeting back in mid-January, setting up six field goals. He's thrown for 815 yards with four TD passes and 4 INTs in three career starts there. The return of RT Marcus Gilbert should help, especially if LG Ramon Foster can play after failing to practice all week due to a back issue.

Kansas City's ability to pressure requires all hands on deck for the Steelers, especially since Justin Logan, Dee Ford and Bennie Logan will all play this week. The Chiefs got great news regarding skill players Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and Albert Wilson too, so Alex Smith will have all his weapons to work with. The offensive line will need to be shuffled again since center Mitch Morse (foot) and guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (knee) will miss this key contest. Rookie RB Kareem Hunt leads the NFL in rushing yardage (609) and key rushing categories like yards after contact (338) and forced missed tackles (35).

Chargers at Raiders: Derek Carr is set to return after breaking bones in his back two weeks ago in Denver, which means a merciful end to the temporary E.J. Manuel era. In fairness, the Raiders didn't fall off a cliff due to their QB since Carr was present for the Sunday night debacle in Landover to close out September that started their current three-game losing streak. Oakland has been outscored 73-37 and never really been in any of the games, falling behind almost immediately. Amari Cooper caught one pass for 28 yards last week and has gotten in his own head, so the Raiders badly need to turn this home game into a revival. Super Bowl odds dipped to 30/1 this week, the lowest they've been all season.

By comparison, the Chargers are at 300/1 despite finally picking up their first win by outlasting the Giants 27-22. They've faced the two teams that already have compiled five wins and also were forced to visit Denver, so it's hard to lump this team in among the league's bottom-five even though they reside there record-wise. Not having any homefield advantage at Carson's Stub Hub Center means they'll be fine in Oakland, or even Santa Clara if the NFL winds up moving the game there due to air quality. Philip Rivers has dropped four consecutive games over the last two years, losing the last three contests by three points each time. The expectation is that he'll finally have rookie receiver Mike Williams in the mix to throw to, which gives him a full compliment of weapons to work with against a depleted Raiders secondary.

Giants at Broncos: NBC certainly didn't envision an 0-5 team being a part of this one and had no way to forecast such a depleted version of the Giants visiting Invesco Field at Mile High. WRs Odell Beckham, Jr., Brandon Marshall and Sterling Shepard join center Weston Richburg on the sidelines for the offense here, while DE Olivier Vernon (ankle) is hurt, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is suspended and safety Landon Collins is questionable due to an ankle injury. New York hasn't won in Denver since 1989, losing its last three meetings.

Denver comes off a bye, so complacency could be a factor to deal with. It's up to first-year head coach Vance Joseph to prove he can keep his team focused since the Broncos' next three games all come on the road against the Chargers, Chiefs and Eagles before they return home for another Sunday night date (Nov. 12) against the Patriots.

Monday, Oct. 9

Colts at Titans: It sounds like we won't know about Marcus Mariota's availability due to an injured hamstring until closer to kickoff. He's hopeful that he'll be able to participate and did work all week that suggests there's a realistic possibility he'll return and this isn't just a smokescreen to force the Colts to prepare for him instead of putting in more work on backup Matt Cassel. Save your jokes about that being light duty, though they do ring true given his showing in Sunday's loss in Miami, an effort that displayed the depths bad quarterback play can sink to. Even though it would potentially be easier for Cassel to find a rhythm at home, the Titans badly need their franchise QB back for a key divisional game. LT Taylor Lewan should play after leaving the Dolphins loss early due to an injured knee.

Indianapolis is looking for consecutive wins, something it managed only once last season. Jacoby Brissett has settled in as the starter, throwing for a career-high 314 yards in Sunday's OT win over San Francisco. He's 2-2 in his starts, throwing a pair of TD passes, three interceptions and has rushed for three scores. He's not Andrew Luck, but he has displayed growth since arriving in town in early September. Tight end Jack Doyle caught 15 passes on 20 targets from him before missing last week's game with a concussion, but he could clear protocol this week given the extra day. This is arguably the healthiest Indy has been all season, though Andrew Luck is likely still weeks away.
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NFL notebook: Patriots rookie Langi hospitalized after car accident
October 14, 2017

New England Patriots rookie defensive end/linebacker Harvey Langi and his wife were involved in a car accident Friday night when they were rear-ended by another vehicle, the team announced Saturday.

The accident involved serious injuries but they are not considered to be life-threatening, a person close to the 25-year-old Langi told ESPN. Five people reportedly were hospitalized following the chain-reaction crash involving three cars.

On the official injury report, the Patriots listed Langi as out for Sunday's game at the New York Jets with a back injury.

"We are aware of the traffic accident involving Harvey Langi and a passenger last night in Foxborough," the Patriots said in a statement. "... Our thoughts are with Harvey, the Langi family and those who sustained injuries in last night's accident."

--Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota is listed as questionable for Monday night's game against the Indianapolis Colts after missing last week's game against the Miami Dolphins with a hamstring injury.

Mariota, 23, was a limited participant in the team's practices this week and is a game-time decision. He was injured during the Titans' game against the Houston Texans on Oct. 1, a game Tennessee lost 57-14.

"It is going to come down to a lot of things," Titans coach Mike Mularkey told reporters. "It might be a game-time decision. Can he play and not risk himself further injury? That's the biggest thing."

--Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the New York Jets in East Rutherford, N.J., because of a concussion.

Gilmore, 27, had not been on the team's injury report and was a full participant at practice this past week.

ESPN reports the former Pro Bowler has been experiencing headaches ever since banging helmets with Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans during the Patriots' 19-14 win in Tampa on Oct. 5.

--The Indianapolis Colts placed starting right guard Jack Mewhort on the injured reserve list with a knee injury.

The 6-foot-6, 305-pound Mewhort aggravated a knee injury in Friday's practice, coach Chuck Pagano told reporters. Mewhort will have to undergo another surgery after his knee flared up during walk-throughs.

"He's been battling through (since) training camp," Pagano said. "Tough deal. Hate it for Jack and his teammates hate it. Next man up. ... He's going to have to have another procedure. We're going to miss him."

--The Jets waived wide receiver Jalin Marshall one day before their game against the rival Patriots with first place in the AFC East on the line.

Marshall's suspension for using performance-enhancing drugs ended this week. He was suspended last March 7 for the first four games of the 2017 season for the violation.

Marshall joined the Jets as an undrafted free agent on April 30, 2016. He caught 14 passes on 23 targets for 162 yards and two touchdowns over 10 games during his rookie season in 2016.

--The San Francisco 49ers promoted tight end Cole Hikutini to the active roster from the team's practice squad.

Hikutini, 23, fills the final spot on the roster that was vacated when the 49ers parted ways with veteran linebacker NaVorro Bowman on Friday.

The 6-foot-4, 247-pound Hikutini originally signed with the 49ers as an undrafted rookie free agent on May 4. He was waived on Sept. 2 and signed to the practice squad the following day.

--The NFL players' union said it will request a hearing of the full panel of judges with the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans on behalf of Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott.

On Thursday, Elliott had his preliminary injunction thrown out and the 5th Circuit Court ordered the case to be dismissed. Elliott was appealing his suspension of six games for violating the league's personal conduct policy because of an alleged domestic violence incident.

The appeals court in New Orleans voted 2-1 in favor of the NFL, which requested an emergency hearing after a district court in Texas blocked the suspension last month. The appeals court ordered the Texas court to dismiss Elliott's case.
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