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  #401  
Old 10-26-2017, 02:56 AM
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Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8


Thursday's game
Dolphins (4-2) @ Ravens (3-4)— Miami is 4-2 despite trailing five of six games at the half. QB Cutler has multiple cracked ribs; Moore is expected to start, with untested Doughty (WKU) the backup if Cutler doesn’t dress. Moore is 15-13 as an NFL starter, but has started only 3 games since 2011. Dolphins won last three games, by 6-3-3 points; their four wins are by total of 14 points. Baltimore lost four of last five games overall; they won six of last seven series games; they whacked the Dolphins 38-6 here LY; Miami lost its last three visits to Baltimore, by 7-16-32 points. AFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 5-2 vs spread; AFC North non-divisional favorites are 2-5. Under is 5-1 in Dolphin games; over is 4-1 in last five Raven games.

Sunday's games
Vikings (5-2) vs Browns (0-7) (in London)— Kessler is third QB to start for Browns this year; he is 0-8 as an NFL starter, was 26-14 at USC. Cleveland has 18 turnovers (-12) in their last six games; they’re 1-5 vs spread in those games- four of their seven losses are by exactly three points. Minnesota won its last three games, allowing 14.3 pts/game; they’re 1-1 on road, with 26-9 loss at Pittsburgh, 20-17 win in Chicago. Under Zimmer, Vikings are 4-4 vs spread as a favorite away from home— they’re 2-1 vs Cleveland, losing 31-27 at home to Browns in last meeting, in 2013. NFC North teams are 11-8 vs spread outside their division, 3-2 if favored. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 4-2 against the spread.

Bears (3-4) @ Saints (4-2)—New Orleans defense is way improved; Saints won last four games, allowing 6 TD’s on 38 drives, while scoring 3 of their own- they ran ball for 193-161 yards in last two games. NO is +40 in plays run in their last three games. Saints split their two home games. Chicago scored two defensive TD’s early in game LW, then sat on lead; they’re 2-1 in Trubisky starts, winning 27-24 in OT at Baltimore in his only road start. Saints won last three series games by 17-8-16 points; this is first series meeting since 2011, Bears’ first visit here since ’11- they lost last four visits here, with last win in Superdome in 1991. NFC North road underdogs are 3-4 vs spread outside their division; NFC South one favorites are 3-6.

Falcons (3-3) @ Jets (3-4)— Atlanta lost its last three games after a 3-0 start; they’ve got only one takeaway (-6) in last four games. Falcons were 13-33 (39.4%) on 3rd down in last three games; they were 14-30 (46.7%) in first three. Jets lost last two games despite leading both games 14-0; three of their last four games were decided by exactly 3 points. Gang Green is 4-0-1 vs spread in their last five games; they’re 2-1 at home (3-0 vs spread). Atlanta leads this series 6-5; they’re 3-2 in road games against the Jets. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 6-10 vs spread, 3-4 on road. AFC East underdogs are 7-2 vs spread, 2-0 at home. Last three Falcon games stayed under total; under is 4-3 in Jet games, 2-1 at home.

Panthers (4-3) @ Buccaneers (2-4)— Carolina lost 17-3 in Chicago LW; both Bear TD’s were scored by defense. Panthers turned ball over six times (-5) in losing last two games after a 4-1 start; they’re 3-1 on road. Carolina is -8 in turnovers in its three losses, -1 in its four wins. Bucs lost last three games, by 5-5-3 points, giving up 30-38 points in last two games- they’re 2-1 at home, with only home loss 19-14 to Patriots. Tampa Bay swept Carolina 17-14/17-16 LY, after losing previous six series games; Panthers won three of last four visits here. Five of last seven series totals were 36 or less. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 6-9-2 vs spread. Over is 3-1 in last four Carolina games, 4-1 in Buccaneers’ last five games.

49ers (0-7) @ Eagles (6-1)— Philly is on serious roll, but lost LT Peters for year Monday, a big blow to offense. Eagles won last five games, covered last four; they’re 11-9 vs spread in last 20 games as a home favorite, 2-1 this year, with home wins by 3-27-10. Iggles allowed 23+ points in five of their last six games. 49ers are 0-7, but 4-3 vs spread; they’re 3-1 vs spread as road underdogs, with road losses by 3-3-3-2 points. SF was outscored 37-10 in first half of their last two games. Niners won last two series games by 1-5 points; teams split last four meetings played here. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 1-5 vs spread; NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 4-7 vs spread, 3-4 on road. Over is 4-1 in 49ers’ last five games.

Raiders (3-4) @ Bills (4-2)— Buffalo is 4-2 with a +10 turnover ratio; Bills are 3-0 at home, with wins by 9-10-3 points. Buffalo is 22-42 on 3rd down in its last three games. Oakland snapped 4-game skid with Thursday win over Chiefs, has three extra days to prep; Raiders are 1-2 on road, losing 27-10/16-10 at Washington/Denver in last two road tilts- their last two games were both decided by a point. Home side won last six series games; Oakland lost 24-23/38-35 in last two visits here- Raiders’ last win in Buffalo was in ’02. AFC West underdogs are 4-0 vs spread outside their division, 3-0 on road. AFC East home favorites are 1-3-1 against the spread. Under is 4-2 in Buffalo games, 3-0 in Raider road games.

Colts (2-5) @ Bengals (2-4)— Indy is 0-3 on road, losing by 35-28-14 points (0-3 vs spread); four of their five losses are by 14+ points- they’ve been outscored 134-44 in second half of games this year, have one TD on 19 drives in last two games. Bengals were held to 179 yards in 29-14 loss at Pittsburgh LW; they allowed 7-16 points in their two wins, are 0-3 when giving up more than 16 points. Cincy ran ball for only 74 yards/game in their last three games. Colts are 9-2 in last 11 series games; last meeting was 26-10 Indy win in 2014 playoff game. AFC South road teams are 2-4 vs spread, 2-2 as road dogs. AFC North favorites are 2-5 vs spread, 2-3 if at home. Under is 4-2 in Bengal games, 2-5 in Indy games.

Chargers (3-4) @ Patriots (4-2)— Chargers won last three games after an 0-4 start; they’re 3-0 vs spread as a road underdog, losing by 3 at Denver, winning SU at Giants/Raiders. Last five TD’s Chargers allowed all came on plays of 23+ yards. Patriots won last three games, by 5-7-16 points; they’re 1-3 vs spread as home favorite this year. NE stayed under their team total the last four weeks. Bolts lost last three series games, by 3-14-9 points; they lost last three visits to to Foxboro by 24-9-14 points- their last win was in ’05. AFC West underdogs are 4-0 vs spread outside their division, 3-0 on road. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 1-3-1 vs spread. Last three Patriot games, last two Charger games stayed under the total.

Texans (3-3) @ Seahawks (4-2)— Houston won/covered five of its last six post-bye games; they scored 33+ points in last four games, with rookie QB Watson under center. Texans are 2-0 as a road dog- the two games were decided by total of 7 points- this is their first road game in over a month. Seahawks won/covered their last three games; they’re 2-0 at home, allowing two TD’s on 22 drives, but those games were against 49ers/Colts. Seattle is 2-1 in this series, winning 42-10 in Texans’ only visit here, in 2005; Seahawks won last meeting in OT in ’13. AFC South road teams are 2-4 vs spread, 2-2 as road dogs. NFC West teams are 7-10 vs spread outside their division, 2-1 as a home fave. Under is 4-2 in Seattle games, 0-4 in last four Texan games.

Cowboys (3-3) @ Redskins (3-3)— Dallas allowed 3-17-10 points in its three wins, 42-35-35 in its three losses; they’re 2-1 on road- since 2014, they’re 9-4 vs spread as a road favorite. Cowboys have 611 rushing yards in their last three games. Short week for Washington after physical loss to Iggles Monday night; Redskins scored 20+ points in last five games, are 2-1 at home- they’re 6-3 vs spread in last nine games as a home underdog. Road team won six of last seven series games; Dallas is 6-2 in last eight series games, winning last four visits here, by 1-27-3-4 points. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 6-9-2 vs spread. Four of last five Dallas games went over total; over is 3-1-1 in last five Redskin games.

Steelers (5-2) @ Lions (3-3)— Detroit won/covered its last five post-bye games; they were dog in 3 of the 5 games. Lions lost three of last four games overall; their OFFENSE gave up three TD’s in last game, a 52-38 loss in Superdome. Detroit is 1-2 at home; all three games went over the total. Pittsburgh is 3-1 on road, allowing 15.8 pts/game; all four games stayed under total. Pitt is 4-0 when they run ball for 100+ yards. Steelers won four in row, 12 of last 14 games vs Detroit; they won 28-20 in last visit here, in ’09. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 2-5 vs spread, 0-2 on road. NFC North non-divisional home underdogs are 5-2 vs spread. Five of last six Steeler games stayed under total; over is 3-1 in last four Detroit games.

Monday's game
Broncos (3-3) @ Chiefs (5-2)— KC lost its last two games after a 5-0 start; they ran ball for average of 156.2 ypg in their five wins, 28-94 yards in their two losses. Broncos held five of six opponents to 80 or less rushing yards. Denver is 0-2 on road, losing 26-16 to Bills, 16-0 to Chargers; in their last four games, Broncos scored 3 TD’s on 45 drives- they ran ball 36 times for 115 yards in last two games. Denver scored 19 points on their last nine red zone drives- not good. Chiefs won last three series games, by 16-3-23 points; Denver won five of its last six visits to Arrowhead. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 6-9-2 against the spread. Over is 4-1-2 in Chief games, 0-3 in last three Denver games.
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  #402  
Old 10-26-2017, 02:57 AM
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NFL Week 8 lines that make you go hmmm...
Peter Korner

Before this past week, Oakland’s offense had scored 53 points in the previous four games. How will the Silver and Black do against the Bills vaunted defense?

Minnesota Vikings vs. Cleveland Browns (+9.5, 37.5)

Being on neutral ground, the offshore opener of Minnesota -7.5 was quickly devoured by those sharp bettors who were expecting higher, like myself. I made this at least -10.5 bordering -11 from the get-go.

Minnesota has quickly become a defensive force in the league allowing 17, 14, 17, 10 and 16 points in its last five games. That stop unit going against a Cleveland offense that is struggling mightily, scoring 7, 14, 17 and nine points in the past four weeks, appears to be good reason that the difference between these two will easily cover any betting number out there up and including the closing line. The Vikings’ point total has improved in three straight weeks. The Browns are losing by an average of over 16 points per game in their last four weeks and nearly by 9.5 for the season.

If you were hedging like most of us early in the betting, taking the Vikings now, instead of later, would be the wise move. Cleveland backers, all two of you, would best benefit by waiting this one out and checking back later to grab a potential double-digit number to your liking. Being that the perception that a difference of 10 is a key number (which it really isn’t), I don’t see this getting maximum play on Minnesota too consistently once it gets that high. Chances of this going over 10 points are minimal.

My strategy here also involves the fact that this is a “special” game, we might not see a letdown by the favored Vikings in a spot like this. Now at 5-2, the last thing Minnesota needs is a closely-fought game in which I am sure they have marked as a notch in the win column. If Cleveland had any talent, particularly at the quarterback position, they could surprise and stay close. But this is certainly not the case.

Insight into Vegas' opening odds and early sharp action for NFL Week 8 betting
There are some very interesting matchups on the NFL Week 8 schedule and we get the story behind those odds from Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports at the Wynn Las Vegas, who gives his insight into the opening lines and early action.

Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 45.5)

Oakland comes to Buffalo for what has become quite a shootout whenever these two teams’ cross paths. I absolutely agreed with the offshore opener of the Bills -3, but early betting has been on the Raiders, partly due to the stunning (and home field advantage) victory over the Chiefs this past week.

Before that, the Raiders were slipping into an abyss that was quickly putting an end to their season. I made this around Buffalo -3 (-120), looking at how the Bills are performing at home this season. In fact, home field has been a huge play between these two as the home team has won six straight times.

Before this past week, Oakland’s offense had scored a mere 53 points in the previous four games. Buffalo has had one of the best “points against” defenses in the NFL all year long. The Bills are playing well, playing better at home, and are feeding off their underdog status. They seem to have the emotional edge in this game.

As an oddsmaker, where my suggestions to Bookmakers with parlay cards were under the microscope, I have always deemed the early movement downward to be a set-up for the casinos to print up their cards south of the key 3. A little money early in the week will turn out to be much larger the other way come kickoff. If you like Buffalo, don’t expect this number to drop off much more. The early money did its job. If you like Oakland, I firmly believe you will see 3’s hit the board again come game day so you might want to sit this out until the weekend to play.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 44)

I made this game more of a toss-up, closer to Tampa Bay either a pick or -1 at best. I understand Carolina’s awful play against the Bears in Chicago this past weekend, but the Panthers were coming off a tough three-game stretch against some quality opponents and when they found themselves down by two touchdowns off turnovers.

The Bears were able to crank up the defense in a position of power and keep the Carolina offense at bay. The fact that the Bears mustered just three points of offense all day themselves has me thinking that we need to throw that game out and look at this matchup with new eyes.

Tampa Bay has lost four of the last five games. It’s given up just under 30 points per game during that span. Though Tampa Bay did score 27 points off a monster day by QB Jameis Winston, it came against a Bills secondary that was hit with multiple injuries to their cornerbacks during the game.

Tampa Bay doesn’t look to be too strong of a force the rest of the way while Carolina, currently in second place, needs this game to not only to wipe away the unpleasant taste of last week’s results, but firmly entrench themselves in the NFC playoff picture. At this point, there’s a huge difference between 5-3 and 4-4.

I don’t see this number heading up any time soon during the course of this week. I see a strong play on the dog where bettors are planning to see a bounce back game by the Panthers in a totally winnable game. Grab as many points as you can if you’re backing the Panthers. Wait until game day if you like the Buccaneers and be prepared to only lay a point or two max at that time.
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  #403  
Old 10-26-2017, 12:31 PM
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Dunkel

Week 8


Thursday, October 26

Miami @ Baltimore

Game 101-102
October 26, 2017 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
129.150
Baltimore
130.370
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 1
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 3
37
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+3); Over



Sunday, October 29

Minnesota @ Cleveland

Game 251-252
October 29, 2017 @ 9:30 am

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
130.722
Cleveland
126.966
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 4
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 10 1/2
37 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+10 1/2); Over

Chicago @ New Orleans


Game 253-254
October 29, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
131.256
New Orleans
143.244
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 12
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 8 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-8 1/2); Under

Atlanta @ NY Jets


Game 255-256
October 29, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
135.970
NY Jets
125.315
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 10 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 4
46
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-4); Under

Carolina @ Tampa Bay


Game 257-258
October 29, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
131.155
Tampa Bay
130.857
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
Even
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 2 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(+2 1/2); Over

San Francisco @ Philadelphia


Game 259-260
October 29, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
125.974
Philadelphia
135.842
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 10
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 13
47
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+13); Over

Oakland @ Buffalo


Game 261-262
October 29, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
132.705
Buffalo
132.309
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
Even
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 3
46
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+3); Under

Indianapolis @ Cincinnati


Game 263-264
October 29, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
123.022
Cincinnati
130.033
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 7
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 11
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+11); Under

LA Chargers @ New England


Game 265-266
October 29, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
131.983
New England
140.903
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 9
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 7
49
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-7); Under

Houston @ Seattle


Game 267-268
October 29, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
134.180
Seattle
144.655
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 10 1/2
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 5
46
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-5); Under

Dallas @ Washington


Game 269-270
October 29, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
132.888
Washington
134.559
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 1 1/2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 2 1/2
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+2 1/2); Over

Pittsburgh @ Detroit


Game 271-272
October 29, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
137.222
Detroit
136.710
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 1
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 3
45
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+3); Under



Monday, October 30

Denver @ Kansas City

Game 273-274
October 30, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
125.392
Kansas City
138.510
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 13
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 7
43
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-7); Over
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  #404  
Old 10-26-2017, 12:32 PM
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NFL

Thursday, October 26


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football betting preview and odds: Dolphins at Ravens
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 37)

Journeyman Matt Moore is fresh off a brilliant comeback performance and now will serve as the starting quarterback when the Miami Dolphins visit the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday. Moore came off the bench after Jay Cutler suffered multiple cracked ribs on Sunday to rally Miami from a 14-point deficit and record a 31-28 victory over the New York Jets.

Moore threw two touchdown passes during a 17-point fourth quarter and brings a more boisterous approach than the introverted Cutler, who could miss multiple contests. "It's an emotional game and I'm an emotional player," Moore told reporters on Tuesday, two days prior to making his 29th career regular-season start. "It's always better when you're having fun. When you're kicking the dirt, that's not the way to do your job. So I try to have a good time." Miami has won three straight games, so it is experiencing better times than the Ravens, who have allowed an average of 27.6 points while losing four of their last five contests. "I wouldn't say it's a must-win," Baltimore safety Eric Weddle told reporters, "but it's definitely a big-time game that we need to try and do everything in our power to win."

TV:
8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY:
Despite all the troubles of the Ravens offense, oddsmakers are still giving them the edge at home, setting the line at Baltimore -3. The line has yet to move off the opening number. The total hit the board at a very low 37.5 and has actually moved down further to the current number of 37.

POWER RANKINGS:[/B] Dolphins (1.5) - Ravens (3.5) + home field (-3) = Ravens -1

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Its going to be hard for the Dolphins and Ravens to match the excitement of last Thursday's Chiefs-Raiders thriller. That doesn't mean its not going to be an interesting game though. The Dolphins come in as the hotter team but the Ravens may well be the hungrier one. I had projected this line to be exactly where it is, so don't find a whole lot of value with the side. If the line moves off three, I'll be taking a closer look. Getting the Ravens at less than -3 (doubtful) would provide some value, while the Dolphins would start looking more interesting if the line climbed above four." - Ben Burns

INJURY REPORT:


Dolphins - QB Jay Cutler (Out Thursday, ribs), DT Jordan Phillips (Questionable Thursday, ankle), C Anthony Steen (Questionable Thursday, foot), DE Andre Branch (Questionable Thursday, groin), WR DeVante Parker (Questionable Thursday, ankle), C Mike Pouncey (Probable Thursday, knee), T Ja'Wuan James (Probable Thursday, hand), TE Julius Thomas (Probable Thursday, knee), RB Jay Ajayi (Probable Thursday, knee), T Laremy Tunsil (Probable Thursday, knee).

Ravens - S Eric Weddle (Questionable Thursday, ankle), LB Patrick Onwuasor (Questionable Thursday, knee), S Tony Jefferson (Questionable Thursday, ankle), LB Terrell Suggs (Questionable Thursday, knee), CB Jimmy Smith (Questionable Thursday, achilles), DB Anthony Levine (Questionable Thursday, back), WR Michael Campanaro (Questionable Thursday, shoulder), WR Chris Matthews (Questionable Thursday, thigh), WR Mike Wallace (Questionable Thursday, concussion), WR Breshad Perriman (Questionable Thursday, concussion), TE Maxx Williams (Questionable Thursday, ankle), LB Tim Williams (Questionable Thursday, thigh), WR Jeremy Maclin (Questionable Thursday, shoulder), RB Terrance West (Questionable Thursday, calf), TE Benjamin Watson (Probable Thursday, knee).

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (4-2, 3-2-1 ATS, 1-5 O/U):
Running back Jay Ajayi (442 yards) is saddled with a 3.5-yard average that is well below the 4.9 mark of last season's breakthrough campaign, but he will have a shot at posting his third 100-yard performance of the year against a Baltimore squad that ranks last in the NFL in rushing defense (145.3 yards per game). Moore will try to pump life into a sagging offense that ranks 31st in scoring (15.3 points) and dead last in total offense (261.8 yards) as well as try to make a downfield threat out of receiver Jarvis Landry, who is averaging just 8.1 yards on 45 receptions. Defensive end Cameron Wake has recorded six sacks after posting 2.5 against the Jets, but the defense has made only two interceptions.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (3-4, 3-4 ATS, 4-3 O/U):
Baltimore ranks 23rd in the NFL in scoring offense (18.8 points) and 28th in total offense (277.6 yards) while quarterback Joe Flacco has been an underwhelming performer with five touchdown tosses and eight interceptions. "I have to be more consistent," Flacco told reporters. "That is the name of this game. In order to win the majority of your games, you have to play consistent, and you still probably are going to lose a couple." Outside linebacker Terrell Suggs (team-best 4.5 sacks) is expected to play through a knee injury, while cornerback Brandon Carr has recorded a club-leading three interceptions.

TRENDS:


* Dolphins are 0-7 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 8-0-1 in Dolphins last nine Thursday games.
* Over is 4-1 in Ravens last five games overall.

CONSENSUS:
Bettors are fairly split on this matchup, with 53 percent of bettors giving the Ravens a slight edge. The total is even closer with 51 percent of wagers on the Under.
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Old 10-26-2017, 12:35 PM
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TNF - Dolphins at Ravens
October 26, 2017


Miami at Baltimore (-3, 37), 8:25 pm ET, CBS/NFLN

It's been nearly an entire decade since the Dolphins covered the spread of a game against the Ravens, last doing so in a 22-16 overtime win back in '07. You've got to go back 20 years and a week for the last time the Dolphins picked up a win in Baltimore, way back in their first visit back in 1997.

Karim Abdul-Jabbar, the running back unrelated to the Hall of Fame center, scored three touchdowns to fuel the victory. That's a blast from the past. While history may not be on Miami's side as they visit Baltimore, the form the current Ravens have put on display of late could ease their burden.

In danger of missing the playoffs for the third straight season, something they've never done under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are hoping to even their record at 4-4 with a win over the Dolphins. Although Baltimore didn't qualify for the postseason in its first four years after relocating from Cleveland, it has been part of the AFC playoff picture more than it hasn't since winning Super Bowl XXXV in 2000. Harbaugh qualified in each of his first five seasons, but will need a strong finish to avoid missing out for the fourth time over his last five.

From that standpoint, there's tremendous pressure to get off to a good start and pick up this win in a short week to move forward within striking distance of a playoff spot entering the season's second half. Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti gave his GM Ozzie Newsome, Harbaugh and QB Joe Flacco a vote of confidence by stating his belief in their competence and his preference for patience, but since he felt the need to do that, there's definitely cause for concern that the foundation is crashing.

Harbaugh is a perfect 5-0 at home on Thursday nights, and actually told his team's fans this week that "there are going to be good times ahead for Joe Flacco. Stick with him."

Flacco has yet to throw for even 250 yards this season, topping out at 235 in a 26-9 loss to Pittsburgh. He hasn't trusted the offensive line since it lost its most valuable member, Marshal Yanda, in the opening month. The former Super Bowl MVP has thrown eight interceptions and just five touchdowns through the first seven games, so maybe facing the team he's lit up most over the past three seasons will help him snap out of a season-long funk. Flacco threw four touchdown passes in last December's 38-6 rout of the Dolphins, utilizing advantages the Ravens had against the linebackers and DBs to post a season-best 36 completions. Dennis Pitta, who was lost to a dislocated hip in training camp, scored two touchdowns among his nine receptions for 90 yards.

Injuries have continued to play a role in the demise of the Ravens offense, which comes off being held to just 16 points in Minnesota, which is misleading since they scored with no time left after driving down the field against a defense more interested in watching the seconds tick away. Had rookie Chris Moore not tapped his toe to get both feet in on the final play of regulation on Sunday, not only would the 'under' for that game have come in, but Flacco would carry a touchdown-less streak of 13 quarters into Thursday night's game. As it is, he's thrown two TD passes in his last 22 quarters.

The defense Miami will bring into town is much improved from the version Flacco dominated 10 months ago. Linebackers Rey Maualuga and Lawrence Timmons were elsewhere last season, while Kiko Alonso continues to make plays. Up front, Cameron Wake had 2.5 sacks to help put away the Jets last week as the Dolphins rallied from a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit to win 31-28 despite losing starting QB Jay Cutler to broken ribs that will keep him out here. Backup Matt Moore, who threw for a pair of scores and 188 yards to help execute the comeback, will start for the first time since last season's AFC Wild Card playoff loss to Pittsburgh.

The Dolphins are in position to join the Steelers, Chiefs and Patriots at 5-2 with a victory here, which would be impressive since they're now on their third quarterback after losing Ryan Tannehill and now Cutler. This injury isn't likely to keep him out long, but since the offense was inconsistent with him at the helm, it's entirely possible that Moore can keep the job if he continues to excel.

Miami Dolphins
Season win total: 7 (Over -130, Under +110)
Odds to win AFC East: 18/1 to 15/1
Odds to win AFC: 50/1 to 50/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1 to 100/1

Baltimore Ravens
Season win total: 8.5 (Over +130, Under -150)
Odds to win AFC North: 6/1 to 10/1
Odds to win AFC: 50/1 to 100/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1 to 200/1

LINE MOVEMENT

Despite the comeback win over the Jets and the possibility of joining the AFC's elite, record-wise, the Dolphins numbers remained the same as they were the previous week. The books clearly aren't big believers in Cutler or Moore. Since they're in the same division as New England, they're not going to get much love. Still, merely from the standpoint that they've gotten off to a successful start and that injuries can pop up at any time to derail seasons, it might be worthwhile to get in on some Dolphins futures if you think they're going to pick up a win here.

The Ravens are also potentially lucrative. Considering the coaching staff knows what it takes to be successful against the AFC's elite teams, you can be confident in the leadership if nothing else. Flacco has been shaky and injuries have compromised any and all depth, so if I had to choose between these two longshots to back long-term, Miami gets my vote.

As far as this matchup is concerned, the Ravens were installed as a 4.5-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced, opening the week at 3.5 at a few shops but quickly moving to 3, which is where at resides pretty much everywhere as of gameday morning. The total opened at 37-37.5, but is now most widely available at 37.

Baltimore is in the -160 range on the money line if you don't want to lay the possession just to flirt with a push, while backing the Dolphins outright will get you +140.

ODDSMAKER'S TAKE

"Currently, the action for TNF is fairly split. We took a little bit of sharp money on the Ravens early, but then received just about the sames sharp money on Miami at +3.5," Cooley said. "The public likes the Dolphins with a 60-40 split. Smart money on the under as well. Despite the win streak, I don’t know if you can call the Dolphins 'hot' due to the nature of those victories, and this feels like a game Baltimore has to have."

INJURY CONCERNS

Beyond missing Cutler, the Dolphins have injury issues along the offensive line and at receiver. Left guard Anthony Steen has been ruled out, necessitating a reshuffling up front. Jesse Davis will start. Left tackle Laremy Tunsil (knee) is questionable but should play, which is fortuntate since Miami would really have to get creative if he can't go. WR DeVante Parker has been absent for the better part of two games but is hoping to return from an ankle injury to push Jarvis Landry and Kenny Stills for targets. DE Andre Branch and DT Jordan Phillips are also questionable.

The Ravens ruled out RB Terrance West and TE Maxx Williams and list WRs Michael Campanaro and Chris Matthews as doubtful. WR Breshad Perriman, who scored against the Dolphins last season, cleared concussion protocol and will play, but Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace are each serious question marks. Guard Matt Skura and TE Ben Watson are questionable but expected to return to action. On the defensive end, LB Tim Williams is out, but Terrell Suggs and top corner Jimmy Smith are expected to go.

RECENT MEETINGS (Baltimore 6-1 SU, 7-0 ATS last seven; UNDER 4-3)

12/4/16 Baltimore 38-6 vs. Miami (BALT -3.5, 41.5)
12/6/15 Miami 15-13 vs. Baltimore (MIA -3, 43.5)
12/7/14 Baltimore 28-13 at Miami (MIA -3, 45)
10/6/13 Baltimore 26-23 at Miami (MIA -2.5, 42.5)
11/7/10 Baltimore 26-10 vs.Miami (BALT -5, 41)
1/4/09 Baltimore 27-9 at Miami (BALT -3.5, 38)
10/19/08 Baltimore 27-13 at Miami (MIA -3, 35)

PROPS

Of the props available below at BetOnline.ag, I'd ride the OVER on field goal length and combined sacks.

Team to reach 10 points first: (Ravens -140, Dolphins +120)
Team to reach 20 points first: (Ravens -155, Dolphins +135)
Team to score first: (Ravens -125, Dolphins +105)
Team to score last: (Ravens -115, Dolphins -105)
First score: (Touchdown -130, FG/Safety +110)
Total FGs made by both teams: (3.5, Over +140, Under -160)
Longest FG made: (47, Over -110/Under -110)
Total sacks by both teams combined: (4.5 Over -110, Under -110)
Will there be a score in final 2 minutes of 1st half: (Yes -210, No +175)
Will there be a defensive or special teams TD?: (Yes +220, No -260)
Will there be a TD of 38 yards or more?: (Yes +120, No -140)
Will there be a 1-yard TD?: (Yes +102, No -140)
Will there be overtime: (Yes +700, No -1000)
Will there be 3 straight scores by either team: (Yes -155, No +135)


RAVENS AS A HOME FAVORITE


Baltimore is 1-1 SU/ATS in this role, defeating Cleveland and losing outright in OT against Chicago. The Ravens were 5-2 as a home favorite last season, covering the number on four occasions, which included the 38-6 romp over the Dolphins that provided their largest margin of victory last season.

DOLPHINS AS A ROAD UNDERDOG


Miami is a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS catching points on the road this season. The Dolphins survived the Chargers in L.A. in their season debut when Younghoe Koo missed a potential game-winning field goal and rallied from a 17-0 halftime deficit in Atlanta to beat the Falcons as a 14-point 'dog. The 'Phins went 3-4 SU (2-5 ATS) in this role last season, including the Wild Card loss in Pittsburgh.


NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED


The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 9 currently has the Ravens as a 4.5-point road underdog at Tennessee. The Dolphins will be back on a national stage, hosting the Raiders in a huge AFC clash on Sunday night football. Oakland is listed as a 1-point road favorite.
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Week 8 Game Scout: Dolphins at Ravens
October 26, 2017


MIAMI DOLPHINS (4-2) AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (3-4)

KICKOFF:
Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET, M&T Bank Stadium, TV: CBS, NFLN, Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, Tracy Wolfson (Field reporter), Jay Feely (field reporter).

SERIES HISTORY: 13th regular-season meeting. Series tied, 6-6. The Ravens won the last meeting, 38-6, last season. QB Joe Flacco threw for 381 yards and four touchdowns as the Ravens ended the Dolphins' six-game winning streak. These teams are very familiar as this is the fifth consecutive year they've met. The Ravens have won three of the last four meetings.

KEYS TO THE GAME: Miami's running game will be the focus. Running back Jay Ajayi and the offensive line must take pressure off quarterback Matt Moore, starting his first game because Jay Cutler is out with fractured ribs. It would help Miami establish the physical presence against the NFL's worst run defense (145.3 yards per game).

The Ravens need to jump out to an early lead because they are not built to play from behind. Flacco might be limited with throwing downfield because of injuries to several of his receivers. So, Flacco might be reduced to picking up yards with screens and intermediate passes. He cannot afford a turnover. The Ravens need to establish the run to take some pressure off Flacco. The Dolphins, however, are stout up front and will try to force Flacco to beat them. The key to this game could be field position.

Miami, which is 10th (308.2 yards per game) in total defense, is becoming adept at shutting down the run and allowing its pass rush, led by DE Cam Wake (6.0 sacks), to take over. Look for Miami to start with an eight-man front early to stop the run.

If Baltimore has success on the ground, the Dolphins will have a long night.

The Ravens are at their best when they force turnovers. Baltimore has managed just four turnovers in their four losses and 11 in their wins. The Ravens will look to keep Moore under pressure. The key will be shutting down Ajayi, but Baltimore's run defense has allowed more than 100 yards in the past five games.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH:

--Ravens LT Ronnie Stanley vs. Dolphins DE Cameron Wake. Stanley is the anchor of an offensive line that has been ravaged by injuries. Quarterback Joe Flacco, who missed all of training camp with an ailing back, has been sacked 17 times. Wake has been a force for Miami and is tied for 10th in the NFL with six sacks. Miami will look to keep Flacco under constant pressure to force mistakes, with Wake leading the charge.

--Dolphins RB Jay Ajayi vs. Ravens DT Brandon Williams. Williams was back in the lineup Sunday against the Vikings after missing four games with a foot injury. Baltimore allowed 169.5 yards per game and went 1-3 when Williams was out. Even with Williams able to play, the Vikings ran for 169 yards on 33 carries. Williams and the rest of the offensive line could face a bigger challenge against Ajayi, who is averaging 73.7 yards per game. Ajayi was held out of practice this week with knee and elbow issues. Miami will look to establish an effective running game, especially with short week and going on the road.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Dolphins QB Matt Moore. Moore will be making his first start of the season in a Thursday night road game, so the degree of difficulty gets raised slightly. Moore did a good job last week in relief of Jay Cutler (ribs). The big concern is whether he'll be loose with the ball. He was good last season (9 TDs, 4 INTs, including playoffs) and wasn't bad last week (2 TDs, 1 INT). Otherwise, Moore's let-it-rip attitude might be just what this offense needed.

FAST FACTS:
Dolphins QB Matt Moore came off the bench when Jay Cutler was injured last week and threw two TD passes, finished with a 102.9 rating. In his past six starts on the road, Moore collected 15 passing TDs vs. 3 INTs. ... RB Jay Ajay totaled 207 yards from scrimmage (103.5 per game) in the past two games. ... WR Jarvis Landry caught passes for 93 yards and a TD last week and seeks fourth straight week with a TD catch. ... DE Cameron Wake made 2.5 sacks last week and has at least two in 16 games since entering the league in 2009, tied for fourth among active players. ... S Reshad Jones has caught an interception in two of the last three meetings. ... Ravens QB Joe Flacco has completed 117 of 162 (72.2 percent) for 1,417 yards, nine TDs and three INTs in the past five meetings. He completed 36 of 47 (76.6 percent) for 381 yards, four TDs and one INT in his last game vs. Miami. ... WR Mike Wallace had 15 TD catches in two seasons with Miami (2013-14). ... TE Benjamin Watson has 463 career catches, sixth most among active TEs. ... LB C.J. Mosley has 46 tackles (11.5 per game) in his past four at home. He is one of three NFL players with 400 tackles (401), five sacks (7) and five INTs (7) since entering the league in 2014. ... S Eric Weddle has an interception in two of the past three games at home. ... LB Terrell Suggs has 8.5 sacks and a pick-six in the past seven meetings.

PREDICTION:
The Dolphins are changing quarterbacks due to injury (again) and Ravens QB Joe Flacco is running out of targets. If Miami can run the clock and gain yards with Jay Ajayi running and receiving it might make Flacco's lack of familiar targets moot. But the call here is for the Ravens to get a needed victory at home.

OUR PICK: Ravens, 32-28.
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NFL Record For Oct......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )

10/23/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/22/2017 11-13-2 45.83% -16.50
10/19/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
10/16/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/15/2017 13-11-0 54.17% +4.50
10/12/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/09/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/08/2017 8-10-0 44.44% -15.00
10/05/2017 1-0-1 100.00% +5.00
10/02/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/01/2017 9-12-0 42.86% -21.00

Totals............37 - 39 - 3....48.68%....-29.50


Best Bets:...................ATS...................Unit s........... ..O/U.............Units...............Total

10/23/2017................1 - 0.................+5.00...........0 - 1.........-5.50.............-0.50

10/22/2017................2 - 3 - 2.............-6.50............4 - 6.........-13.00...........-19.50

10/19/2017.................0 - 0.................+0.00...........0 - 1...........-5.50...............-5.50

10/16/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00...........1 - 0...........+5.00..............+10.00

10/15/2017.................2 - 4.................-12.00...........3 - 1...........+9.50..............-2.50

10/12/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00............1 - 0 ..........+5.00..............+10.00

10/09/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00............1 - 0...........+5.00..............+10.00

10/08/2017.................3 - 3.................-1.50.............2 - 4...........-12.00...............-13.50

10/05/2017.................0 - 0 - 1.............0.00.............1 - 0...........+5.00................+ 5.00

10/02/2017.................1 - 0................+5.00.............0 - 1............-5.50.................- 0.50

10/01/2017.................4 - 4.................-2.00.............2 - 2............- 1.00.................- 3.00

Totals......................16 - 14 - 3............-+3.00...........15 - 16...........-13.00................- 10.00

Sunday Night 2 Team Parlay...........................0 - 3..................................-15.00
.
Thursday Night 2 Team Parlay........................1 - 0..................................+12.50

Thursday Night Game of the month................1 - 0..................................+5.00

Monday Night 2 Team Parlay..........................1 - 0 .................................+12.50



*****************


THURSDAY, OCTOBER 26
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


MIA at BAL 08:25 PM

MIA +3.0 *****

O 38.5 *****
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