Conference Championship Games by Chris Schultz

[Lukester]

Week 20 Picks: Conference Championship Games:
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3:00 PM Sunday, January 24, 2010
NY Jets Indianapolis (-7.5)
Schultz Picks: NY Jets:
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Both the AFC and NFC championship games are very interesting to assess, and to try to predict who may win and why. Both the Colts and the Jets have had outstanding seasons for different reasons.

The Colts were 14-0 at one point, and if they had decided to, probably could have been 17-0 going into this AFC title game. For the Jets, they play with great heart and desire. They are defence-dependent first, and running game second. The Jets play a physical style that disguises the fact that they are very polished in all aspects of football.

Peyton Manning's offence does have the ability to burn the top-ranked Jets' aggressive defence. In the first game between the teams in Week 16, Manning was 14-21 for 192 yards in only two-and-a-half quarters. But the important issue here is that the Colts picked up every stunt, blitz, and tactic the Jets tried extremely well.

But, the 20-3 win over Baltimore last week was misleading. The Ravens self-destructed as much as the Colts played well. If the Ravens had played their top game, the Colts probably would have only won by three, not 17. Can the Jets run the ball on a Colts defence that did an excellent job on Ray Rice and Willis McGahee last week? I say yes, because the Jets' offensive line and fullback are better blockers than what the Ravens have.

The Jets did an excellent job of holding a San Diego offence to 14 points, and will have to play their best on a Colts offence of equal ability. But this is the sixth road game in eight weeks for the Jets. In the end, Colts win, but Jets cover.



6:40 PM Sunday, January 24, 2010
Minnesota New Orleans (-3.5)
Schultz Picks: Minnesota:
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These teams are remarkably similar in almost every way, except I think the Vikings have an edge in the overall quality of the offensive and defensive lines.

I think the Vikings will have a better chance to pass-rush Drew Brees successfully than the Saints have to get to Brett Favre. I like the Vikings' offensive tackle to play with more consistency than the Saints'. Also, because of the popularity of Favre, not much attention has been given to the Vikings' defence. It finished 6th in total defence, and second against the run. The Saints finished 25th, and 21st against the run.

What Minnesota did to Dallas was not luck - they won the line of scrimmage against a team that was previously dominating it for a month against all opponents. Both quarterbacks are excellent but Favre is very focused, with 8 TD's and no interceptions. For Brees, he needs balance - against Arizona there were 34 running plays for 171 yards that made the 32 pass plays very effective.

Home field is a big advantage for the Saints, and Minnesota was 4-4 on the road this year, but the VIkings have physical monsters on both sides of the ball. Saints, not so much. I'll take the Vikings.


*Through 264 games, Schultz is 143-115-6 against the spread; 4-4 in playoffs.